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☆ TSX hits 5-week low as Fed's hawkish stance fuels recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 291.02 points, or 1.5%, at 19,600.63, its lowest closing level since Nov. 9. Hopes that the U.S. central bank would soften its stance had helped lift equity markets off their lows from October. Higher interest rates reduce the value to investors of the future cash flows that companies in that sector are expected to produce. Reporting by Fergal Smith; additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canadian housing starts dip 0.2% in November; beat estimate
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts edged lower in November compared with the previous month as a drop in single-detached urban starts offset groundbreaking in multiple unit urban homes, data from the national housing agency showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts fell to 264,159 units from a revised 264,581 units in October, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. Economists had expected starts to fall to 255,000. Reporting by Fergal Smith Editing by Raissa KasolowskyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

☆ TSX posts biggest weekly decline since September as oil tumbles
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 22.12 points, or 0.1%, at 19,947.07, its lowest closing level since Nov. 17. For the week, the index was down 2.6%, its biggest weekly decline since September. The Toronto market's energy sector fell 0.7% as U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.6% lower at $71.02 a barrel. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

OTTAWA, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will study the most recent economic data to gauge whether to raise interest rates further, a deputy governor said on Thursday, adding it would still move forcefully if necessary. "We expect our decisions will be more data-dependent," Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki said in a speech in Montreal, adding the bank was still prepared to be "forceful" with rates if necessary. "We are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates." Asked to clarify if being prepared to be "forceful" meant the bank was still prepared to make oversized rate moves, Kozicki said it was a hypothetical. Deliberations ahead of Wednesday's rate hike centered on how supply challenges are resolving, how higher rates are slowing demand, and how inflation and inflation expectations are evolving, Kozicki said.

OTTAWA, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will study the latest economic data to gauge whether or not to raise interest rates further, a deputy governor said on Thursday, adding it would still move forcefully if necessary. "We are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates." But three-month rates of core inflation have declined to about 3.5%, Kozicki said, an indication "that momentum in inflation is easing". Deliberations ahead of Wednesday's rate hike centered on how supply challenges are resolving, how higher rates are slowing demand, and how inflation and inflation expectations are evolving, Kozicki said. Kozicki reiterated that starting next year, the bank will release a "summary of deliberations" in an effort to provide more transparency.

The bank cited still-strong growth and tight labor markets as the reason for the latest increase. But it eliminated the forward guidance it has used since it began cranking rates higher in March, dropping language that said they would have to rise further. Money markets had bet on a 25-basis-point increase, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expected a 50-bps move. Overall, however, the central bank said that data supported its October forecast that growth would stall through the middle of next year. Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto, Editing by Sandra Maler, Kirsten Donovan and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canadian dollar seen higher as analysts eye peak interest rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022, with almost all of the decline coming since mid-August. Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, much stronger than both analysts and the Bank of Canada were expecting. The BoC has raised its benchmark interest rate by 350 basis points since March to 3.75%, its highest level since 2008, in an attempt to cool inflation. Along with a more stable path for U.S. interest rates it "should help the loonie rally closer to fair value," Zhao-Murray said. Measures of fair value include purchasing power parity (PPP), or the exchange rate that equalizes the purchasing power of separate currencies.

☆ TSX closes below 20,000 mark as oil prices slide
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 252.09 points, or 1.25%, at 19,990.17, its lowest closing level since Nov. 21. All 10 of the TSX's major sectors lost ground, including a decline of 3.5% for the energy sector. That matched the decline for U.S. crude prices , which settled at $74.25 a barrel, as global demand concerns weighed. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Will DunhamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Toronto home prices fall 1% in November; down roughly 19% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) fell in November as rapidly rising interest rates weighed on the city's once-red-hot housing market, data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed on Tuesday. The average price of a GTA home fell to C$1.08 million ($794,527) in November, down 1% from October and down 7.2% from a year ago. Prices were about 19% below February's peak. "Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market," TRREB President Kevin Crigger said in a statement. ($1 = 1.3593 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada's Ivey PMI shows activity growing at faster pace in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity expanded at a faster pace in November and a measure of price pressures cooled, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 51.4 in November from 50.1 in October. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The gauge of employment dipped to an adjusted 54.3 from 54.6 in October, while the prices index was at 63.5, down from 69.8. The unadjusted PMI edged up to 51.5 from 51.4.

☆ Canada exports rose in October helped by weak dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports rose 1.5%, helped by higher exports of medicinal products as well as gold bars and coins to the United States, Statscan said. "Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened in October, with a weaker Canadian dollar providing a helping hand. When expressed in U.S. dollars, Canadian exports were down 1.3% in October, and imports decreased 2.2%, Statscan said. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products rose 10.2% in October to a record-high C$5.5 billion, helped by canola and wheat. The Canadian dollar was trading at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, down 0.3% on the day.

☆ Canada's deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada's yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion. The depth of Canada's curve inversion is signaling a "bad recession" not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC - CPI-median and CPI-trim - show price pressures easing. "The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank's target," said Brown.

☆ Pakistan repays $1 bln international bond -central bank spokesman
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam | Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ISLAMABAD, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Pakistan repaid a $1 billion international bond, the central bank spokesman said on Friday, amidst growing uncertainty about the country's ability to meet external financing obligations. "The payment (was) made to Citibank New York," State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) spokesman Abid Qamar told Reuters in a message. The bond repayment, which matures on Dec. 5, totals $1.08 billion, the central bank chief said last week. During the week ended Nov. 25, SBP reserves stood at $7,498.7 million. Saudi Arabia on Friday also extended the term of a $3 billion deposit it has in Pakistan's foreign reserves.

The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3455 to the greenback, or 74.32 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. For the week, it was on track to decline 0.6%. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies and equity markets globally fell. Canadian government bond yields climbed across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries.

☆ TSX pares weekly gain as investors brace for further rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada’s main stock index fell on Friday, including declines for financials and technology, as investors weighed U.S. and Canadian jobs data that could help determine the pace of central bank interest rate hikes. FILE PHOTO: The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File PhotoThe Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended down 39.79 points, or 0.2%, at 20,485.66, after posting on Thursday its highest closing level in nearly six months. U.S. stocks fell, although recovering from their lowest levels, as the November payrolls report fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with forecasts, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%.

Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. Analysts had forecast the jobless rate would tick up to 5.3%. The November report follows a monster gain of 108,300 jobs in October and comes just days ahead of a Bank of Canada policy-setting meeting on Wednesday. The central bank has raised rates by 350 basis points since March, one of its steepest tightening cycles ever. The small jobs gain was entirely for full-time work and mostly in the services sector, while the participation rate edged down to 64.8% from 64.9% in October.

☆ C$ posts weekly decline as U.S. jobs data rattles investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3485 to the greenback, or 74.16 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. U.S. stock indexes fell as the U.S. jobs data reignited investor concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing on its path of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%. The 2-year dipped nearly one basis point to 3.786%, while the 10-year was down 3.8 basis points at 2.796%. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ C$ dips against greenback; falls harder vs other G10 currencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar . The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies. "In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell's comments, money market data showed. The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.

☆ Toronto market seen higher if economic downturn not too severe: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If the downturn doesn't prove to be severe, equity markets could stabilize even as economic data and earnings underwhelm," said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, Missouri. Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. "While corporate earnings will likely continue to decline for many industries, we see continued growth in earnings across most commodities," said Arthur Salzer, chief executive officer of Northland Wealth Management. Adding to investor enthusiasm, the TSX last Wednesday closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 4. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sarupya GangulyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Will Smith knows that fans may be hesitant to see his first movie since slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars. That’s what I’m hoping for. The aftermath of the incident has included several Smith apologies and even more reactions on social media. Smith released his first public apology to Rock the day after the slap amid mounting backlash. “Anyone who says words hurt has never been punched in the face,” Rock said, later adding, “I’m not a victim.

☆ Canada posts C$1.72 bln surplus over first six months of 2022/23
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, NOV 25 (Reuters) - Canada recorded a C$1.72 billion ($1.29 billion) budget surplus for the first six months of the 2022/23 fiscal year, helped by higher tax revenues, the finance ministry said on Friday. By comparison, Canada posted a C$68.57 billion deficit in the period from April to September 2021. Program expenses were down 17.9%, largely reflecting lower transfers to individuals and businesses as COVID-19 support wound down, the finance ministry said. On a monthly basis, Canada posted a deficit of C$2.16 billion in September, compared to the C$11.41 billion deficit recorded a year ago. ($1 = 1.3382 Canadian dollars)(Reporting by Ismail Shakil, editing by Fergal Smith)((ismail.shakil@tr.com))Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX notches 5-month high as tech and industrials climb
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 62.25 points, or 0.3%, at 20,282.26, its highest closing level since June 9. Wall Street also gained ground after minutes from the Fed's November meeting showed interest rate hikes may slow soon. The industrials sector, which includes railroad and airline stocks, rose 0.4%, while technology ended 1.9% higher. It was boosted by a 22.6% jump in shares of Converge Technology Solutions (CTS.TO) after the company commenced a strategic review process, including evaluations on a possible sale, merger or divesture. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

In a surprise move, the Canadian government said earlier this month that it had decided to cease issuance of real return bonds (RRBs), citing low demand. That makes them an expensive form of financing for the government, but cost should not be the only consideration, investors say. The median allocation by defined benefit pension plans, a major category, to RRBs was 5.2% in 2021, data covering members of the Pension Investment Association of Canada (PIAC) shows. U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) could act as a proxy but are not an exact hedge against Canadian inflation. Breakeven rates are the difference between yields on nominal and real return bonds.

☆ TSX dips as lower oil prices pressure energy shares
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Fergal Smith | Simon Jessop | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies TSX ends down 36.82 points, or 0.2%, at 19,957.96Energy falls 2.3%; oil settles 1.5% lowerMaterials sector loses 1.3%Restaurant Brands gains 7%TORONTO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index fell on Wednesday as lower oil prices weighed on energy shares but gains for consumer-related stocks helped limit the index's decline. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 36.82 points, or 0.2%, at 19,957.96. The Toronto market's energy sector fell 2.3% as oil prices settled 1.5% lower at $85.59 a barrel concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in China. The materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, lost 1.3%, while technology ended 0.7% lower. Shares of Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR.TO) ended 7% higher, helping drive the consumer discretionary sector to a 1.3% gain.

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