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☆ Unilever’s new boss whets appetite for split
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Unilever’s new chief executive is arguably a bit low fat. The appointment of board member Hein Schumacher, CEO of Dutch dairy cooperative FrieslandCampina, will instead have investors wondering whether Unilever needs to split its food and non-food arms. Unilever’s current share price is barely 40 euros per share. (By Aimee Donnellan)Follow @Breakingviews on Twitter(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Sainsbury’s latest bid chatter looks overblown
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Sainsbury’s (SBRY.L) is in the crosshairs of discount shoppers. Although the news drove Sainsbury’s shares up 5%, a bid looks unlikely. Its 530 million pounds of EBITDA in 2022 was less than a quarter of Sainsbury’s, implying any deal would be a stretch. And Bestway would have to win over the Qataris and Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky who together own nearly a quarter of Sainsbury’s. Before Friday’s share bump, Sainsbury’s traded at around 5.5 times its forward EBITDA compared to larger rival Tesco (TSCO.L) which trades on 6.5 times.

☆ H&M’s fast-fashion parade is skating on thin ice
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MILAN, Jan 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - H&M’s (HMb.ST) outfit is once again failing to impress. That corresponds to a meagre operating margin of 1.3%, a far cry from the around 15% margin larger rival Inditex (ITX.MC) is expected to report in its fourth quarter. H&M’s operating margins were already lingering in the mid-single-digit area before inflation became a problem. Sales growth of just 5% in December and January suggests the Swedish retailer is struggling to recover to its pre-crisis levels. If a recession curbs even more consumer spending, H&M’s profit margin may disappear.

☆ Diageo fortunes rest on reviving America’s thirst
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors in Diageo (DGE.L) are suffering from fading animal spirits. The share price of the $97 billion drinks company, which makes Guinness and Baileys, slumped 6% on Thursday, even though its 9% net sales growth beat analysts’ expectations of 8%. It’s possible that drinkers are getting more cautious, fearing a possible recession, and tempering their purchases of pricier booze. Sales in North America grew by just 3% year-on-year in the most recent six-month spell, compared with 14% a year earlier. But if the dry spell continues, Diageo shareholders may be nursing a more lasting headache.

☆ Why retail bankers are beating dealmakers: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs’ earnings revealed that the basic business of lending money is thriving, while investment banking is not. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this says about the U.S. economy and what to expect from the Europeans. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterloadingEditing by Sharon Lam and Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Hope and optimism are surprise guests at Davos: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Business leaders like Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Microsoft’s Satya Nadella are attending this week’s World Economic Forum. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists give a view from the ground, debate the upbeat tone and explain why politicians stayed home. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Bayer’s rude health lays better path for breakup
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Activists like Jeff Ubben’s Inclusive Capital Partners may now, however, be in a better position to push for a breakup. Smaller peer Bluebell Capital Partners has also bought in recently. Using UBS forecasts, they would be worth 50 billion euros and 88 billion euros respectively. Its smaller consumer drugs division might fetch another 18 billion euros, using peer Reckitt Benckiser’s (RKT.L) 12 times multiple. Add them up, take off debt, pension liabilities and a further 6 billion euros of future Roundup litigation costs, and Bayer’s equity could be worth nearly 110 billion euros.

☆ AstraZeneca’s new deal is smarter than it looks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - On the face of it, Pascal Soriot’s new deal ought to raise his shareholders’ blood pressure. The boss of $221 billion pharma giant AstraZeneca (AZN.L) has agreed to buy CinCor Pharma (CINC.O) for up to $1.8 billion. Yet paying $26 in cash per CinCor share and an extra $10 per share if a key drug is submitted for regulatory approval represents a 206% bump to CinCor’s closing share price on Friday. The pharma industry has a war chest of over half a trillion dollars to splurge on knock-down biotech stocks this year. If the next trial goes better, Astra’s deal may not look so toppy.

☆ Global finance unknowns are more “who” than “what”
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - After British pension funds narrowly dodged catastrophe in 2022, regulators are hunting enthusiastically for hidden risks in the non-bank financial industry. The key to stopping a crisis isn’t locating the landmines – it’s working out who’s most likely to stand on them. As a result, regulators everywhere, including the G20’s financial stability task force, are on high alert looking for hidden leverage. Emerging market funds are one place to start the search. Before the pandemic, banks, hedge funds and other investors were happy to back corporate takeovers with high levels of debt.

☆ Big Pharma will find right formula for M&A binge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The year 2022 was relatively thin for pharma M&A, with deals worth nearly $66 billion being announced by early December – 60% below the 9-year average, according to Refinitiv data; 2023 will be better. It helps that drug companies are relatively healthy, with debt around just 1.6 times forecast EBITDA in 2023, according to Berenberg analysts. Seagen (SGEN.O), for example, worth $22 billion in early December, has fought off Merck & Co (MRK.N). That puts Big Pharma in an ideal negotiating position. CONTEXT NEWSGlobal pharmaceutical companies spent nearly $66 billion on takeovers in 2022, according to data from Refinitiv as of Dec. 7.

☆ Breakingviews: Unilever ice cream saga may sour ESG deals
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Unilever’s (ULVR.L) drawn-out ice cream drama offers food for thought on buying companies with strong political leanings. The consumer goods group said on Thursday that its litigation with the independent board of Ben & Jerry’s over the sale of its Israeli ice cream business has “been resolved”. The ice cream mess made for an odd corporate drama. Unilever bought the hipster brand in 2000 for $326 million, leaving Ben & Jerry’s board more independence than a typical subsidiary. The company also asked a judge to stop Zinger from selling the ice cream in the West Bank.

☆ Qatar has got what it wanted from the World Cup: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Gulf state has taken more flak than it would have done had it not staged the soccer tournament, which ends on Sunday. Yet in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Qatar’s largely successful event also aids a strategy to make itself globally visible. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Sharon LamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ The implications of Blackstone’s property wobble: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The giant alternative asset manager’s market value dropped by $8 bln after it said investors were exiting its flagship real estate fund. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the causes of the jitters and how rivals are vulnerable to similar moves. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Big Pharma’s heartburn win is a valuation salve
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The equity value of GSK (GSK.L), Sanofi (SASY.PA) and Haleon (HLN.L) crashed in August, after analysts warned of a massive thwack linked to claims that heartburn medication Zantac caused cancer. On Tuesday, a Florida judge broadly agreed and threw out roughly 50,000 claims in federal court. Morgan Stanley analysts had estimated the overall Zantac litigation hit could have been as high as $45 billion. The Zantac judge has just proved that courts can be a help as well as a hindrance. Shares in GSK were up 9% to 15.08 pounds as of 0958 GMT on Dec. 7, while Sanofi rose 5% to 90.03 euros.

☆ The complexities of EY’s big breakup bet: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Big Four firm is pushing a plan to separate its auditing unit from its consulting business. In this Exchange podcast Andy Baldwin, global managing partner, discusses the challenges of convincing partners in over 70 countries to back the split – and what happens if it fails. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China’s messy options for ending zero-Covid: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Protests broke out across the People’s Republic this week as authorities tightened lockdowns to contain the virus. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the difficulties of walking back a policy that leader Xi Jinping has convinced the country is necessary. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterloadingEditing by Thomas Shum and Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ASOS bonus tweak stores up longer-term woes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

On Tuesday, the 653 million pound fast fashion retailer changed the targets for José Antonio Ramos Calamonte’s bonus next year. The portion of the up to 1.1 million pound payout linked to revenue growth will fall to 15% from 30%. Meanwhile the share linked to cash flow has been upgraded to 35%, and cost cuts will also be rewarded. With the years of rapid growth over, ASOS may look even more vulnerable to a takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Ireland picks cheeky moment to lift bank bonus cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ireland’s plan to lift a cap on bankers’ bonuses looks ill-timed. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said Dublin will lift a 500,000 euro crisis-era cap on annual executive salaries and allow bonuses of up to 20,000 euros for bank workers. However, Irish bank bosses have long argued salary constraints made it difficult to retain top talent. The remaining big bank duopoly of AIB (AIBG.I) and Bank of Ireland (BIRG.I) means a customer backlash is unlikely as there is little alternative. Still, championing higher pay for bankers is a gutsy move in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis.

☆ Big Pharma will muscle in on obesity gold rush
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Obesity drugs are a modern day gold rush for drugmakers. By then, the obesity market could total $50 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. But a plausible 50% price cut would lower annual sales to $25 billion. Reuters GraphicsFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSSales of Novo Nordisk’s obesity drugs Wegovy and Saxenda reached nearly $1.2 billion in 2021, up 50% versus the previous year. Morgan Stanley analysts expect the obesity market to grow to $50 billion in annual sales by 2030.

☆ FTX collapse consigns crypto to fringes of finance: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Sam Bankman-Fried’s failed crypto exchange is a huge blow to the ailing sector. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how firewalls helped protect banks, how the saga will embolden regulators, and what the future looks like for digital currencies. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Dr. Martens exposes fashion’s squeezed middle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Dr. Martens (DOCS.L) revealed a weak spot in Britain’s already ailing retail sector. It also warned that it will have to spend more to hit its existing revenue target of “high teens” percent growth for the full year. That means its EBITDA margin will be 1 percentage point to 2.5 percentage points lower than last year’s 29%. Dr. Martens straddles the high street and luxury retail sectors. Chief Executive Kenny Wilson revealed growth in its direct-to-consumer offering was also slower than expected in the first half.

☆ COP28 may make up for COP27’s shortcomings: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The global climate meeting has mostly failed to lure the same corporate big hitters as Glasgow did last year. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how even if the gathering in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh yields little progress, 2023 in the UAE could be better. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Roche reminds investors big drug bets have risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shareholders in Swiss drug giant Roche (ROG.S) are learning the downside of making big bets on new drugs. Credit Suisse analysts reckoned the drug could eventually generate around $10 billion of sales. If shareholders had valued that revenue at the same 4 times multiple at which Roche currently trades, the drug could have added nearly $40 billion of value to the company. That suggests investors were attaching a less than one-in-three chance of the drug being a success. Roche investors should brace for more big bets.

☆ How Credit Suisse’s turnaround could work: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - CEO Ulrich Körner is raising $4 bln of fresh equity and shrinking the Zurich-based group’s trading business to put it on a steadier footing. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the merits of the plan and what’s at stake if it fails. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterEditing by Amanda Gomez and Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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