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You read that right: amid a commercial real estate market across U.S. downtowns being described in apocalyptic terms, CoStar sees a shortage on the horizon, with one key caveat for top companies to bear in mind. CoStar's call of an upcoming office space shortage is predicated on a look at the current data on leasing and construction activity compared to recent market history. They have attracted over 175 million square feet of net new occupancy since the beginning of 2020, an average of 12.7 million square feet per quarter. "Modern, premium office space remains in demand, just as it has historically, even during difficult economic times," said Phil Mobley, national director of office analytics at CoStar Group. Less than 30 million square feet has broken ground in 2023, making this year the lowest for construction starts since 2011.
Persons: Visoot, downtowns, Phil Mobley, Google's, Mobley, Jeff Greene Organizations: CNBC, Google, City, Gas Co, Billionaire Locations: U.S, New, Los Angeles, West Palm Beach
Through programs including Tulsa Remote, former Californians and New Yorkers are moving to Oklahoma. Some moved through Tulsa Remote, while others discovered the city on their own. For those moving through Tulsa Remote, the retention rate is around 76%. She moved to Tulsa in February 2020 independent of the Tulsa Remote program. He noticed some friends who also lived in an RV full-time eventually settled in Tulsa, and he decided to apply to Tulsa Remote.
Persons: , Laura Landers, it's, Landers, She's, they've, " Landers, Corinne Gaston, Philadelphia Corinne Gaston, Gaston, she's, Faith MacNeil, Lansing , Michigan Faith MacNeil, MacNeil, didn't, Lansing —, Michael Boyink, Missouri Michael Boyink, Bob Dylan, he's, He's, Boyink Organizations: Tulsa, Oklahoma . Business, Service, Dallas, Housing Solutions, Rocket Homes, Business, Lansing, Michigan, Bob Dylan Center, Woody Guthrie Center Locations: Oklahoma, Los Angeles, California, Dallas, Tulsa, LA, Housing Solutions Tulsa, Tulsa County, California , Michigan , Missouri, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Lansing , Michigan, Michigan, Scotland, Glenpool, Lansing, Missouri, Boyink
Dollar nurses losses as US rates seen peaking
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.9% last week alongside a big rally in U.S. The yuan also hit a three-month high on the dollar on Monday as the central bank guided it higher. "The dollar continues to struggle, with the dollar index breaking below 104 on Friday and (now) below 103.5 ... as markets decide that the Fed is done," analysts at ANZ said in a note. The Australian dollar was marginally firmer at $0.6561, just below Monday's three-month high of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6040.
Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Kit Juckes, Christine Lagarde, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: European Central Bank, New Zealand, ANZ, Conference, Federal Reserve, Futures, Generale, U.S, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo
"The combination of high prices, high mortgage rates, and millions of homeowners unwilling to move, given they've locked in low rates, has frozen the market," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would slide to a rate of 3.90 million units. Existing home salesTIGHT SUPPLYThere were 1.15 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 5.7% from a year ago. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 5%, making many reluctant to sell. At October's sales pace, it would take 3.6 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.3 months a year ago.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Robert Frick, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, National Association of Realtors, Navy Federal Credit Union, homebuyers, Reuters, Treasury, realtors, U.S, Congress, Builders, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Vienna , Virginia, Northeast, West, Midwest, Charlotte , North Carolina
Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland attends the Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 18, 2023. Housing Minister Sean Fraser on Monday confirmed the government is considering such a measure. Many Canadians are dealing with higher living costs and housing affordability has emerged as the main criticism against the government. Freeland has promised to use the FES to try to boost housing supply and to help Canadians struggling with inflation. The Bank of Canada hiked rates to a 22-year high of 5.00% between March of last year and July of this year.
Persons: Finance Chrystia Freeland, Blair Gable, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau's, Freeland, Derek Holt, Holt, Sean Fraser, Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Steve Scherer, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Finance, Canada, CARICOM, REUTERS, OTTAWA, Canada Finance, Justin Trudeau's Liberal, Scotiabank, Canadian Broadcasting Corp, Toronto Star, Housing, Monday, Conservative, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, FES, United States, Ottawa
And now interest rates have soared to a 20-year high, eroding buying power without — in defiance of normal economic logic — doing much to dent prices. They have been insulated from rising interest rates and, to a degree, from rising consumer prices. Their monthly housing costs are, for the most part, locked in place. Because the interest rate is fixed, homeowners get to freeze their monthly loan payments for as much as three decades, even if inflation picks up or interest rates rise. But because most U.S. mortgages can be paid off early with no penalty, homeowners can simply refinance if rates go down.
Persons: Buyers
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
Burry also closed out bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index, the filings showed. His Scion Asset Management’s biggest new position last quarter was in bearish options on an exchange-traded fund focused on semiconductors. He bought put options with a notional value of $47.4 million against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.O), according to the filing. The filings also showed that Burry's fund no longer held puts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Hedge fund Man Group also sold its 1.1 million shares in Nvidia, while Renaissance Technologies LLC sold its entire stake in the company.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, George Soros, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio, Anna Driver, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, iShares Semiconductor, Soros Fund Management, Society, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring, Man, Renaissance Technologies, Tiger Global Management, Eisler Capital, Man Group, Duquesne Family Office, Thomson Locations: U.S, TSMC, New York
The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long term. Gasoline prices fell in OctoberWhat's happening under the surfaceEnergy prices can whipsaw inflation readings due to their volatility. That's why economists like to look at a measure that strips out these prices when assessing underlying inflation trends. This pared-down measure — known as the "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4% in October from 4.1% in September. Housing inflation declined in October, to 6.7% relative to a year earlier, and has fallen from a peak over 8% in March 2023, according to BLS data.
Persons: Joe Biden, David Paul Morris, Sarah House, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, CPI, BLS Locations: Hercules , California, U.S, Wells Fargo, American, Russia, Ukraine
Economists polled by FactSet expect U.S. inflation to have risen just 0.1% last month and 3.3% from the year-ago period. Cracks in consumer data Investors will also watch for the October retail sales data for insight into the consumer, who has thus far proven resilient even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. Investors will also be watching for the October producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, as well as housing data on Friday. Monday Nov. 13 Earnings: Tyson Foods Tuesday Nov. 14 8:30 a.m. CPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October) Earnings: Home Depot , Charles Schwab Wednesday Nov. 15 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Amy Magnotta, It's, There's, Gregory Daco, he'll, Ned Davis Research's, Joe Kalish, NDR's Kalish, Jeff Klingelhofer, Magnotta, Tyson, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Ategenos, FactSet, Thornburg Investment Management, Walmart, CPI, PPI, Retail, Palo Alto Networks, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, . New York Federal Reserve, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Body, Housing Locations: . New, NAHB, . Kansas, Bath
This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Glaze Martillano, a tech recruiter at Meta who lives in Toronto, about the benefits Meta employees are offered. VacationsWhen joining a big tech company, most candidates have high expectations when it comes to healthcare, competitive equity packages, vacations, and bonuses. Most importantly, they get to work on different projects with Meta employees based on their personal interests and skills. Companies talk about the importance of mental-health care, but there's still a stigma attached to getting help, so employees often don't take advantage of it. Forty percent of employers say they believe workers leave their jobs to work at companies that offer better benefits and perks.
Persons: Glaze, Martillano, , It's, Meta, I've, we've, We've, it's, they'd, there's Organizations: Meta, Talent, Service, Facebook, Tech Locations: Toronto, Canada, United States, Menlo Park , California
The "On The Market" podcast recently compiled a list of cities to watch for real-estate investors. The cities have low median prices, good cash flow, and solid economic fundamentals. Compared to the low-interest-rate environment of the 2010s, it's not a great time to be a real-estate investor. Affordability is the lowest it's been in decades, with mortgage rates above 7% and national home prices hovering around all-time highs. Housing supply is incredibly tight as homeowners hesitate to let go of low mortgage rates they locked in.
Persons: it's Locations: Oklahoma City , Tallahassee
Biden’s economic scorecard touts fragile advantage
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +11 min
And if the political strategist James Carville was right that “it’s the economy, stupid,” the next several months could make or break Joe Biden’s economic record. As things stand, the current ruler of the free world touts a fragile advantage. Households’ disposable income after adjusting for inflation hit a record $20 trillion in the month that Biden’s measure was approved, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. STUDENT LOANSForgiving swaths of student debt was another of Biden’s campaign promises, but his efforts have so far failed. And with higher interest rates making debt service more expensive, Biden’s spending could come back to bite him on election day.
Persons: Joe Biden, Ken Cedeno, James Carville, Joe Biden’s, , aren’t, Breakingviews, it’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, , Realtor.com, Congressional Republicans haven’t, haven’t, WALL, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Edmond's Catholic, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, House, Republican, AMERICAN, ACT, Brookings Institution, Analysis, Walmart, Nordstrom, Deere, Caterpillar, Republicans, Commerce Department, Micron, Bank of America, Gallup, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, RSM, Congressional Republicans, Biden, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conservative, Thomson Locations: St, Rehoboth Beach , Delaware, U.S, New York, Arizona, West Virginia
The case of IrvineWhen the city of Irvine took on short-term rentals in 2018, Airbnb seemed unstoppable. Its tentacles had spread to cities across the globe, converting entire neighborhood blocks, in the most dramatic cases, to short-term rentals. Plenty of cities had passed ordinances banning short-term rentals, only to see Airbnb listings continue to pop up. That's consistent with data on short-term rentals in Irvine, which showed that by January 2021, the number of listings in Irvine had halved. As the Berlin and Boston studies found, when houses or apartments are pulled off the long-term market to be used as short-term rentals, housing supply decreases.
Persons: it's, that's, Banning, Irvine, Airbnb, Michael Seiler, College of William & Mary, Seiler, Murray Cox, Ken Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Cox, Airbnbs, Alicia Glen, Sarah Saadian, It's, we're, Saadian, Katya Schwenk Organizations: , New, Real Estate Economics, College of William &, Irvine, New York's, Housing Coalition, The Locations: New York City, New York, York City, Irvine , California, Orange County, Real, Irvine, Plenty, Airbnbs, . New York City, Berlin, Boston, Burlington , Vermont, Summit County, Colorado, New, Airbnb, Phoenix , Arizona
Investors curious as to whether their bond funds could withstand an economic downturn would do well to look back to the last two recessions. The PGIM Core Bond Fund (TAIBX) and the Calvert Core Bond Fund (CLDAX ) earned returns of more than 8% from December 2007 to the end of June 2009, according to data from Morningstar Direct. Standouts include the Carillon Reams Core Bond Fund (SCCIX) , which incurred a 7.55% return from February through April 2020, per Morningstar. The Johnson Institutional Core Bond fund (JIBFX) and American Funds' Bond Fund of America (ABNDX) round out the top three, with total returns in that period of more than 4%. A combo of attributes Core bond funds have a combination of features that prepare them for downturns.
Persons: Liz Young, Lehman, Calvert, Paul Olmsted, Olmsted Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Lehman Brothers, Bond Fund, Morningstar Direct, Funds, Bond Fund of America, Morningstar, Treasury Bond ETF
A recent jury verdict against the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages could upend the residential real estate industry. Here's what real estate agents, homebuyers and sellers need to know about potential changes in residential real estate economics. A bad time for bad news in real estateThe jury verdict comes at a time when many real estate agents are already feeling a pinch. At a time when home sales are already under pressure, "this lawsuit is just another punch in the gut for real estate franchises," said Bill Gross, a self-employed real estate broker associate in California with eXp Realty. Lawsuits focused on fees reinforce the general trend of trying to lower fees in the real estate market, Schipani said.
Persons: Max, Mike DelPrete, Bill Gross, there's, Keefe, Ryan Tomasello, Gilbert J, Schipani, we've, Glenn Kelman Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, realtors, Max Holdings, Federal, University of Colorado Boulder, eXp Realty, Tempus Fugit, Compass Locations: Missouri, Kansas City, St, Louis, Springfield, Columbia, U.S, California
Gavin Newsom doesn't want to admit that he's running for president. Fetterman talked about Newsom during an Iowa Democratic Party dinner on Saturday, per NBC News. Gavin Newsom of California doesn't have "the guts" to admit that he's running a shadow campaign for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. "There are two additional Democrats running for Pennsylvania, excuse me, running for president right now," Fetterman said at an Iowa Democratic Party dinner on Saturday, per NBC News. "You may be termed out here, but does cleaning up the streets of California factor into a potential presidential run?"
Persons: Sen, John Fetterman, Gavin Newsom doesn't, Fetterman, Newsom, , Gavin Newsom, Dean Phillips, Phillips, he'd, Biden, Xi Jinping, who's, Xi, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Sean Hannity, It's, Cecilia Vega, Vega Organizations: Iowa Democratic Party, NBC, Service, Democratic, Gov, South Carolina Democratic, Oval, Tribune, Politico, Florida Gov, Fox News Locations: California, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Austin, China, Florida
Bezos makes third losing bet on real estate
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
It’s not the only questionable real estate decision Bezos has made in the past several years. He announced in a Thursday Instagram post that he will move to Miami, leaving the Washington city where he founded Amazon in 1994. Bezos grew up in the south-Florida city in the early 1980s, and he will return to a two-mansion compound worth some $147 million, according to Bloomberg. Miami-based real estate had a renaissance during the pandemic as people sought warmer climates where they could be outside. Still, the founder is no stranger to real estate bets that don’t always make financial sense.
Persons: Jeff Bezos, It’s, Bezos, Ken Griffin, David Tepper, lockdowns, That’ll, don’t, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Amazon, Bloomberg, U.S . Federal Housing Finance Agency, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dade, University of Miami, Homes, Climate, U.S . Federal Aviation Administration, Shepard, Thomson Locations: Miami, Seattle, Florida, Washington, Bezos, Indian, Arlington , Virginia, Arlington, Cape Canaveral
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've seen the most home price cuts since 2015, says Redfin CEO Glenn KelmanGlenn Kelman, Redfin CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk quarterly earnings, the U.S. housing market, cost cutting measures and more.
Persons: Glenn Kelman Glenn Kelman, Redfin Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLower mortgage rates may 'slightly' kickstart U.S. housing market, says Mr. Cooper's Jay BrayJay Bray, Mr. Cooper Group CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the company's third quarter results, its fourth quarter outlook, the state of the housing market and more.
Persons: Cooper's Jay Bray Jay Bray Organizations: Cooper
Nicole Friedman — Reporter at The Wall Street Journal
  + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Nicole Friedman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Nicole FriedmanNicole Friedman covers the U.S. housing market and the home building industry for The Wall Street Journal. She has been a reporter with the Journal since 2013 and previously covered energy markets, property and casualty insurance, and Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.
Persons: Nicole Friedman Nicole Friedman, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Wall Street
They're looking to nearby smaller cities in South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee. They're picking places like Knoxville, Tennessee; Greenville, South Carolina; Huntsville, Alabama; and Asheville, North Carolina; which she collectively refers to as "the Villes." AdvertisementAdvertisementWhy CEOs moved their lives — and their businesses — to FloridaWall Street moved to South Florida in droves in 2020 and 2021. Billionaire hedge-fund CEOs — like Citadel's Ken Griffin — paid record-shattering amounts for South Florida homes , added offices, and moved their businesses there entirely from New York, Chicago, and Silicon Valley. They bought a 2,400-square-foot, four-bedroom home on an acre of land for the same price in Greenville, South Carolina.
Persons: , There's, Nicole Panesso, Holly Meyer Lucas, Meyer Lucas, Ken Griffin —, Brian Guzman, Guzman, Jonathan Miller, Ken Griffin, PATRICK T, FALLON, It's, Larry Ellison, Miller, Michael Bordenaro, Greg May, Marcia Straub, Keller Williams, Jill Cody, she's, Ryan Wilson, Jami, Alexander Spatari, Jami Wilson Organizations: Service, Sunshine State, Census Bureau, Orlando, Coral, Fort Myers, Florida Wall, Billionaire, Guzman Advisory Partners, Getty, West Palm Beach, Florida Atlantic University, Silicon, Oracle, South, South Florida metros, Fortune, Miami, Homes, Army Locations: Florida, Greenville, Knoxville, South Florida, Chattanooga , Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina , Georgia, Tennessee, Knoxville , Tennessee, Greenville , South Carolina, Huntsville , Alabama, Asheville , North Carolina, Realtor.com, Asheville, Miami, Gulf Coast, New York, Chicago, Silicon, West Palm, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Texas, North Carolina, Greensboro, Fort
Black students are far less likely to have access to high school personal finance classes. But high schools with a majority of Black students are less likely to have a guaranteed personal finance course in their high schools. The student debt gapBlack borrowers are disproportionately burdened by student loan debt. Student debt can be daunting, but there are scholarships out there for Black students. 4. Credit discriminationRedlining is a well-known form of credit discrimination , but the issue goes beyond mortgages.
Persons: , Tiffany Aliche, Pell, Biden, There's, Homeownership, doesn't, Aliche Organizations: Service, Finance, The Institute, College, NPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Housing, Federal Reserve, Civil, Equal, The Association of African American Financial Locations: Brookings, Zillow
US existing home sales drop to 13-year low in September
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 13-year low in September as surging mortgage rates and tight supply combined to reduce affordability for many first-time buyers. Existing home sales fell 2.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales slipping to a rate of 3.89 million units. "Higher mortgage rates are really hampering activity." At September's sales pace, it would take 3.4 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.2 months a year ago.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lawrence Yun, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, Mortgage, Association, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Midwest, West, U.S
US weekly jobless claims hit nine-month low
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Though the labor market is gradually cooling, conditions remain tight, with claims at the very low end of their range of 194,000 to 265,000 for this year. The Fed's Beige Book report on Wednesday said "labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation" in early October and implied cooling wage pressure. The labor market is driving consumer spending and the overall economy, ultimately keeping inflation elevated. The claims report covered the week during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of October's employment report. The so-called continuing claims increased 29,000 to a still-low 1.734 million during the week ending Oct. 7, the claims report showed.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell's, Jay Hawkins, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, U.S, Economic, of New, National Association of Realtors, realtors, BMO Capital Markets, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Texas , New York , New Jersey, Georgia, California, Tennessee, Michigan, of New York, Toronto, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware
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