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The S & P 500 's strong first 100 trading days of 2024 is a good omen for the rest of the year, according to Bank of America technical research strategist Stephen Suttmeier. As of May 23, the 100th trading day of 2024, the S & P 500 rallied more than 10% for the year. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 year to date Historically, when the S & P 500 rises 10% or more in the first 100 days of any year, the index is higher the rest of the year 76% of the time, the strategist said. In this case, the average return comes in at 7.1%, with a higher median return of 9.3%. If 2024 followed that pattern, the S & P 500 would stand at 5650 shortly before Labor Day, based on the May 23 close, Bank of America said.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Labor
The global semiconductor industry is set to experience "groundbreaking changes," Citi said, naming stocks to play the theme. Here are six stocks from Citi's list, which stand out for having substantial upside potential, according to FactSet's consensus price targets. Nvidia Among Citi's list of top stocks is investor darling Nvidia . Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix South Korean tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also made Citi's list. Citi also noted that SK Hynix is looking forward to stronger supplies of HBM3E chips through to 2025, "in line with the customer's roadmap."
Persons: Atif Malik, ASMPT, Kevin Chen, Takayuki Naito, Ibiden, Hynix, Peter Lee, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Nvidia, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF, BlackRock Future Tech ETF, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix South, SK Hynix, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF Locations: Hong Kong, Franklin FTSE Hong, SK Hynix South Korean, Korea, Franklin FTSE South
As the price of gold hits new all-time highs and silver rallies to a multi-year high, Bank of America has identified four exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer attractive exposure to precious metals. The top-rated ETFs include abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (ticker SIVR), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) and abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR). Bank of America rated all four ETFs "more attractive" in comparison to other ETFs with similar assets. These funds reflect baskets of physical precious metals, with varying allocations to silver, gold, palladium, and platinum. abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF SIVR is the cheapest silver fund in Bank of America's coverage, with a total expense ratio of 0.50%.
Persons: Jared Woodard, SLV, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Precious Metals Fund, Bank of, Treasury, Bank, Precious Metals Locations: BofA
As inflation lingers at a generational high, some stocks stand out for their ability to help investors hedge against the effect of high interest rates better than others. "What ensued was a massive negative correlation between the perception about interest rates and the valuation of growth companies from late in 2021." While a basket of high-quality growth stocks used to be negatively correlated to inflation, meaning their stock prices suffered as inflation turned higher, Trivariate says the relationship has since changed. "Today, the correlation of the high-quality growth basket to our inflation basket is zero," the firm said. In the same report, Trivariate Research shared its basket of high-quality names in the technology sector that have a near-zero correlation to its inflation basket.
Persons: Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley, Trivariate, Morgan Stanley —, Meta Marshall, Raymond James, there's, Simon Leopold, Michael Bloom Organizations: Research, Trivariate, Keysight Technologies, Technologies, JPMorgan, VMware, Broadcom Locations: United States
Owning overcrowded trades that are most popular among hedge funds could be risky for individual investors in the event of a herd-like stampede by systematic traders, according to Morgan Stanley, which looked at stocks to avoid. Despite their popularity and performance, none of the megacap tech stocks made the list of overcrowded stocks. That's because their enormous share count makes hedge funds' ownership less significant. Morgan Stanley found that hedge funds were most overweight in consumer discretionary, industrial and health care stocks last quarter, while they were most bearish on technology and consumer staples companies. Janus Henderson , The New York Times , Planet Fitness and Wayfair were also on the list of crowded trades.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Russell, Howard Hughes, Janus Henderson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Avis Budget Group, Howard Hughes Holdings, The New York Times Locations: The
Hedge funds added more exposure to financial and tech names in the last quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Castagno highlighted that in the last quarter, hedge funds seemed to shift their portfolio allocations toward the information technology and financials sectors, moving away from health care. However, hedge funds still remain most overweight stocks within the health care, consumer discretionary and industrials industries. Hedge funds have recently increased their ownership shares in retailer Bath & Body Works by 2.5%. Wolfe Research upgraded shares of Alaska Air Group to outperform from peer perform last Friday.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Todd Castagno, Castagno, A.J, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Securities and Exchange, Universal Health Services, UBS, Body, JPMorgan, Airline, Alaska Air Group, Wolfe Research, TPG, DXC Technology, Avis Budget Group Locations: Rice, Bath, Coast
Specifically, analyst Chris Schott called Eli Lilly one of his highest conviction opinions. Analyst Harlan Sur noted that one of his top picks includes semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom , which has rallied 25% in 2024. In the report, the bank also highlighted data centers as an area that investors should watch. As demand grows for data centers, beneficiaries could include stocks such as Vertiv , up an eye-watering 106% in 2024, which is one of analyst Steve Tusa's highest conviction picks in the electrical equipment industry. Other stocks JPMorgan listed in the report include Delta Airlines and Carvana .
Persons: Chris Schott, Eli Lilly, Harlan Sur, Steve Tusa's, Rajat Gupta, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Major Pharma, Broadcom, Delta Airlines
A top strategist for JPMorgan is sticking with a pessimistic outlook for stocks despite a strong start to 2024 that's winning over other Wall Street skeptics. The JPMorgan note comes shortly after strategists from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their forecasts for the S & P 500. The stock market has outrun most Wall Street projections so far this year, with the S & P 500 up more than 11%. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has already surpassed the original year-end 2024 targets from major Wall Street strategists. Kolanovic's JPMorgan colleague Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has the lowest S & P 500 target — 4,200 — among major strategists, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: that's, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley, Dubravko Lakos, Bujas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, CNBC Market, Survey
On top of that, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) subsidies to reshore the battery supply chain to the U.S. are also "having the desired impact," it added. It named companies such as LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI which have more than 65% of U.S. battery manufacturing capacity. LG Energy Solution has the additional benefit of being the most exposed to growth and IRA benefits, they added. But Bernstein said it prefers Samsung SDI to LG Energy Solution for now, as the former offers "growth at a reasonable price." Bernstein gave Samsung SDI and LG Chem an outperform rating and LG Energy Solution a market perform rating.
Persons: Bernstein, Freyr, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, LG Chem, Umicore, Basf, LG, Panasonic, Tesla, SolidEnergy Systems Locations: U.S, North America, decouple, China, South Korea, Europe
The analysts project that over $100 billion will be channeled toward such "potential investments propel[ling] AI and spur[ring] power demand growth in Asia." Here are three of Morgan Stanley's overweight-rated stock picks with more than 35% upside potential over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley has a target price of 7.20 Singapore dollars ($5.35) on the Singapore Exchange -listed shares, giving them 36.9% potential upside. GDS Holdings Another Morgan Stanley favorite is Chinese data center developer and operator GDS Holdings . Morgan Stanley has a target price of $13.30 on the Nasdaq-listed stock, which translates to 40% potential upside.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Tenaga Nasional Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Tenaga Nasional, Tenaga, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, U.S, Global X FTSE, Asia, Malaysian, Industries, Sembcorp, Morgan, Singapore, Sembcorp Industries, GDS, GDS Holdings, ASEAN, Nasdaq Locations: Asia, U.S, Malaysian, Tenaga Nasional, Bursa Malaysia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambria, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia
Winning in China's electric car market is no longer just about having the cheapest price. Despite new U.S. tariffs , the Chinese electric car industry is already moving into a new phase of competition no longer centered on sticker prices alone, many in the industry say. Hong Kong-listed Fuyao, a major supplier of glass for cars, is one of JPMorgan's top picks to take advantage of China's growing electric car market. The Shenzhen-listed Chinese battery giant, Contemporary Amperex Technology , is one of JPMorgan's top Chinese electric car supply chain plays. Last week, Chinese electric car company Nio released a new car in a lower-priced range of just over 200,000 yuan.
Persons: Stephen Dyer, AlixPartners, BYD, Xiaomi, Tesla, Nio, William Li, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Greater, Greater China Business, Amperex, Li Auto, Tesla Locations: Hong Kong, China, Greater China, Asia, Beijing, Shenzhen
XLU 1M mountain Utilities stocks have risen sharply in May. Woodard identified other ETFs and stocks that could benefit from increased energy consumption and investment in the electric grid. Miners should retain pricing power given constrained capacity after a decade of underinvestment," the Bank of America note said. Bank of America is positive on the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) , which offers exposure to both physical uranium and miners. Bank of America did not include a utilities ETF in the note, but the firm has a buy rating on Xcel Energy, among such stocks.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, ruddy, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Investment, Utilities, Bank of America, Miners, Companies, VanEck Oil Services, Halliburton, Uranium, Xcel Energy Locations: Freeport, McMoRan
The stock market is in the early stages of a period of rising retail investor activity, and that could bode well for Robinhood Markets , according to Bank of America. The bank double upgraded the online brokerage and financial service provider to buy from underperform on Friday, raising its price target to $24 from $14, implying about 34% upside in the shares. "Retail engagement peaked in 2021 and then declined significantly through the > 500bps of Fed rate hikes and the 2022 bear market, troughing in 2023," Bank of America analyst Craig Siegenthaler said in a note. "However, following the emergence of a new bull market last year, we have monitored a rebound in multiple metrics at Robinhood Markets … and we expect this to continue through 2026." Siegenthaler said a rise in retail engagement can drive 44% organic growth, margin loan utilization and more than 60% year-over-year trading activity that can drive payment for order flow.
Persons: bode, Craig Siegenthaler, Siegenthaler, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, GameStop, AMC, " Bank of America Locations: underperform, Underperform
BofA Securities has screened for 20 of Asia's "most important stocks," selected from the constituents of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Here are 10 stocks from the investment bank's list, which stand out for having substantial upside potential, according to FactSet's consensus price targets. This gives the stock upside potential of 42.0%. Analysts' target price on the stock is 103,211 Korean won ($76.61), or 32.0% potential upside, according to FactSet data. Their average target price is 233,378 Korean won, implying nearly 20.9% upside potential, FactSet data shows.
Persons: — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BofA Securities, MSCI, AIA Group, Hong, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Korean Locations: Hong Kong, Korean
Warren Buffett's purchase of a 6.4% stake in Chubb makes perfect sense as the insurer checks all the boxes of the Oracle of Omaha's investment criteria, according to Deutsche Bank. "We believe that Chubb is an ideal fit for Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, characterized by high-quality business with strong [returns on equity], a robust economic moat, a proven track record of compounding returns, and a distinguished management team," Deutsche Bank analyst Cave Montazeri wrote in a note to clients. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a $6.7 billion stake in Zurich-based Chubb in a new regulatory filing, ending months of speculation over the identity of the secret stock pick. Deutsche Bank said Chubb has a disciplined approach to underwriting and capital allocation and, in the near term, should benefit from earned pricing above loss costs, strong investment income and growth in its international operations. CB ALL mountain Chubb Deutsche Bank has a buy rating on Chubb and a 12-month price target of $278, implying a 10% gain from Wednesday's close of $252.97.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Chubb, Warren, Cave Montazeri, Berkshire Hathaway, Montazeri, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Oracle, Deutsche Bank, Berkshire, Securities and Exchange Commission, Chubb Deutsche Bank, ISI, Alleghany Corp Locations: Zurich, U.S, Omaha, Berkshire
The rally back to the record highs for the S & P 500 is already spurring at least one Wall Street shop to raise its expectations for the year. BMO Capital Markets strategist Brian Belski said in a note to clients Wednesday that he is raising his year-end target for the S & P 500 by almost 10% — to 5,600 from 5,100. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has rebounded to record highs. "Historical performance patterns suggest continued gains given the level of YTD performance. The S & P 500 hit an intraday all-time high on Wednesday morning, trading near 5,279.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Street, CNBC Market, Survey, BMO
'Conviction list' stocks with big upside Investors still looking for quality names with more upside may want to consider names in Goldman's conviction lists — directors' cut. CNBC Pro scoured Goldman's May conviction lists for stocks with further upside of 50% or more, based on the bank's price targets. Goldman gave it a price target of $35, implying 107% upside. Goldman gave it a price target of 37 euros ($40), implying 64% upside. The bank gave the stock a price target of 380,000 Korean won ($277), or potential upside of 94%.
Persons: Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman, Neste, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones, U.S . Federal, Fed, CNBC, Europe's, Energy, Korean Locations: 1Q24, United States, Europe, Asia, Korean
Technical signals are indicating the dramatic meme stock rally , driven by a short squeeze, could soon come to a painful end, according to Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg. A short squeeze occurs when investors who had bet against a stock by borrowing shares and hoping to buy them back later at a lower price luck out. This then pushes the stock price higher. SunPower , another short squeeze candidate, dropped 19% Wednesday before the open, after surging 60% Tuesday. Wolfe Research said an index it manages with Nomura that measures stocks with high short interest this week "rallied into a lower high at long-term resistance."
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Nomura, Michael Bloom Organizations: GameStop, AMC, Wolfe Research
The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
It's now focused on finding industry leaders with high free cash flow. Hong Kong-based AlphaHill Capital is looking specifically for Chinese consumer names with free cash flow growth, said Siliang Jiang, the firm's partner and portfolio manager. Jiang expects the Chinese consumer will start to turn around in the second half of this year or next year. China's "Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged up in the past 9 months, despite falling property prices and fears of 'household balance sheet recession '. Two of their picks based on positive free cash flow are Li Auto and New Oriental Education .
Persons: Ding Wenjie, Ding, It's, Siliang Jiang, Jiang, Li, Liqian Ren, Ren, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, China Asset Management Co, CNBC, Investors, China Merchants Securities, Baidu, Bank of America, Li Auto, New Oriental, Speed Railway, WisdomTree, Reuters Locations: China, India, Hong Kong, Tencent, Beijing, Shanghai, Shanghai . State
The bank therefore expects Arm-based AI PCs to "start a transformation that will affect the global semis industry." Morgan Stanley added it believes that Apple may expand its Arm-based CPU to AI servers as well. The bank estimates that AI PCs will reach a penetration rate of 95% by 2027 — up from 8% in 2024. Stocks What stocks will benefit from Arm's foray into AI PCs? As for TSMC, Morgan Stanley says its foundry market share with the "x86" CPU market will grow.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, TSMC, MediaTek, bode, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Nvidia Locations: British, Taiwan
CFRA's Sam Stovall has emerged as one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, seeing more room for the S & P 500 to run to a double-digit gain this year. This updated target marks one of the highest on the Street, behind only the 5,500 target from John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer. It is also 6% higher than the average projection of 5,105, according to the CNBC Pro Market Strategist Survey , which rounds up the targets from the top 14 Wall Street strategists. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 is up more than 9% this year, driven by the continuous rally in many megacap tech names. Stovall sees the S & P 500 hitting 5,610 in the next 12 months, which would translate into a 7.6% gain from Thursday's close of 5,214.
Persons: CFRA's Sam Stovall, John Stoltzfus, Stovall, he's, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Federal Locations: Oppenheimer
"It could take three to five months for bitcoin to re-test recent highs," H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has fallen 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are "par for the course" for bitcoin, even in bull cycles. "Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event with the bull stage running longer in each subsequent cycle," Colonnese said. "Assuming a similar duration for this bull stage of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025," Colonnese added.
Persons: it's, bitcoin, Wainwright, Mike Colonnese, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Colonnese, Bitcoin, It's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, Metrics, CNBC, Wolfe Research
Goldman Sachs says Sunrun shares are poised for a big increase after being on a downward trend all year. "RUN continues to expect a 1Q24 trough with an inflection in 2H24," Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee wrote in a note on Thursday. Goldman reiterated its buy rating on the shares and $18 price target, implying more than 50% upside from Wednesday's closing price. Sunrun shares are down about 42% for the year. RUN YTD mountain Sunrun shares are down 41% in 2024 — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brian Lee, Goldman, , Michael Bloom
JPMorgan said this regional bank is so appealing that it would have attracted attention from the late Charlie Munger. "When we think of the late, great Charlie Munger and his mantra to 'buy wonderful businesses at fair prices,' the bank that fits this bill in our view is Cullen Frost," the firm's bank analyst Steven Alexopoulos said in a note. However, JPMorgan said the bank's "strong organic growth story" remained fully intact. JPMorgan said investors are now able to buy the shares at 13.1 times forward earnings, compared to a 16X historical average. The bank maintained its overweight rating and has a 12-month price target of $140 per share, which would translate into 32% upside from Tuesday's close of $105.62.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Cullen Frost, Steven Alexopoulos, Munger, Buffett, Cullen, Frost, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Berkshire Hathaway's, CFR, Frost Bankers Locations: San Antonio , Texas
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