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☆ S&P 500 may be going through a 'false breakout,' so get defensive into June, BTIG says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders should think about acting defensively with the potential that the S & P 500 is only on a temporary tear and will face more seasonal weakness soon, according to BTIG. Jonathan Krinsky, the firm's chief market technician, said there's a chance the S & P 500 is in a "false breakout," especially if the broad index dips below the April high of 5,260. The S & P 500 closed Friday at 5,277.51 after closing below the 5,260 level on Thursday. Defensive positioning is important, Krinsky said, given that the S & P 500 failed to hold above the 5,260 level before Friday's end-of-month advance. Krinsky also highlighted that June is the second-worst-performing month for the S & P 500 on average over the past 15 years, with a typical loss of around 0.7%.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, there's, Krinsky, Russell, bode Organizations: New York Stock

A small group of stocks are on the verge of forming a worrisome chart pattern known as a "death cross ." A death cross occurs when a stock's 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day average. Baxter International Stock in medical equipment maker Baxter International is also on the verge of a death cross. Other stocks nearing a death cross chart pattern include Illinois Tool Works and Abbott Laboratories . While the golden cross suggests a potential uptrend, ITW is now approaching the bearish death cross chart pattern only five months later.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Bonnie Herzog, Clorox, TD Cowen, Joshua Jennings, Baxter, Jennings, Abbott's Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Baxter International Stock, Baxter, Abbott Laboratories ., Tool, Abbott Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration Locations: Hillrom, Illinois, U.S

☆ The charts say this energy stock is showing signs of leadership that must be respected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

One of the best performing stocks in the underperforming energy sector looks ready for another potential up leg, according to the charts. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has underperformed the S & P 500 thus far in 2024, but with a year-to-date gain of about 8.5%, it's actually the fifth best sector out of 11. From the closing low in May 2023 to its recent closing high on April 5, it gained a whopping 109%. However, when the stock finally emerged from that condition a year ago, demand resurfaced, and the strong advance commenced. Lastly, even after MPC's recent 20% decline, the stock has drastically outperformed both the XLE Energy ETF and the S & P 500 since the COVID lows.

Persons: it's, haven't, Said, XLE, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Marathon Petroleum, MPC, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, XLE Energy

☆ A bearish options trade on a beer stock that's breaking down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

When the DI+ is above the DI-, the stock is considered to be in an uptrend. Conversely, when the DI- is above the DI+, the stock is in a downtrend. The trade: Bear put spread Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. If SAM’s stock price starts rising against my directional bias, I would want to cap my losses at 50% of my investment (i.e., $250). THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET.

Persons: Bear, Nishant Pant Organizations: Boston Beer, RSI

☆ There's a 'buy' signal flashing for investors in the stock market right now as the long-term bull market pushes on, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is in a great spot for investors to jump in, Ed Yardeni says. The market vet still thinks stocks are in the midst of a long-term bull market that could last through 2030. AdvertisementThe latest pullback in stocks could represent a big "buy" signal for investors, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Consumers have pulled back on goods spending, but they're spending more money on services, which is propping up the economy, Yardeni noted. Yardeni has been making the case for months that stocks are still in a long-term bull market and could soar through the rest of the decade.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Stocks, Yardeni, —, he's Organizations: Service, Yardeni, Dow, Bloomberg, Fed, Dow Jones

☆ Charts show little fear of a market drawdown. So now may be a good time to hedge
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Breaking down the market charts The S & P 500 broke out above the 2021 highs of 4,820 in the first two weeks of this year. Again, I don't know. I don't know. And I'm content to come before you and say I don't know and we can't know. This measures how much premium is embedded in the at the money puts and calls in the S & P 500.

Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns Wall Street groupthink is wrongly leading investors to abandon recession forecasts — and says a 'policy disaster' is brewing as the Fed keeps
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech

☆ Trim Alphabet, buy Microsoft: How major hedge funds invested in tech during the first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hedge funds took a diversified approach to technology investing in the first quarter as the sector built on its 2024 rally. Both Appaloosa and Coatue trimmed stakes in Nvidia during the period, with the latter shrinking his stake by 68% to $1.25 billion. Stanley Druckenmiller told CNBC last month that he cut his Nvidia stake in late March and called AI a "little overhyped" in the short run. Apple caught renewed attention from Viking Global and cuts from Coatue and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Coatue, Third Point, Viking Global and Tiger Global upped their Amazon stakes, while Appaloosa and D1 Capital trimmed their holdings.

Persons: Michael Burry, Ole Andreas Halvorsen zeroed, David Tepper's, Chase, Seth Klarman's Baupost, Dan Sundheim's, Phillippe Laffont's Coatue, Dan Loeb's, Halvorsen, Tepper, Sundheim, Laffont, Brad Gerstner, Stanley Druckenmiller, Warren Buffett's Berkshire, Coatue Organizations: Technology, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Capital, Microsoft, Street's, CNBC, Apple, Viking Global, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Tiger Global Locations: Coatue, Warren

☆ The outlook on gold and gold stocks into the summer is looking strong, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Let's take a look at how gold stocks have fared and see how recent price action suggests the uptrend is nowhere near completed. While gold stocks tend to be very much tied to the performance of the underlying commodity, there will often be periods of dislocation, where gold and gold miners appear to be more disconnected. This appears to have occurred in the first quarter, when physical gold was fairly flat, but gold miners were sold off into a February low. The chart of Royal Gold (RGLD) shows that the early breakouts are beginning to occur. Given the strength in the charts of physical gold and gold miners, this group may serve as a compelling opportunity going into the summer months.

Persons: Let's, David Keller Organizations: Nasdaq, Gold Miners, CMT

☆ With S&P back at new highs, now come the price target and earnings revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.

Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie

☆ 'Someone played this beautifully': Why one expert is suspicious of the latest meme-stock revival
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Deep out-of-the-money call options saw an explosion in trading volume just before the return of "Roaring Kitty." AdvertisementThe recent explosion in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment looks suspicious, according to one market expert. Aside from the call options, GameStop stock has been gaining since late April, jumping about 60% from April 24 through March 10 despite no fundamental news on the company. "A suspicious person might wonder why 'Roaring Kitty' chose to return to social media today. The SEC filings in BBBY were boilerplate, and the social media post literally had no words.

Persons: Steve Sosnick, —, Sosnick, Kitty, Ryan Cohen, Cohen, it's Organizations: GameStop, Interactive, Service, AMC Entertainment, Interactive Brokers, Yahoo Finance, SEC Locations: Bath

☆ A former Bridgewater executive shares his 2 highest-conviction trades right now — and breaks down why the US labor market remains exceptionally strong despite apparent signs of weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Another common worry among investors is the risk that elevated interest rates pose to the labor market and overall economy. AdvertisementThat difference is that prior cycles have been driven by lending, Elliott said. Lending growth fueled economic expansions and drops in lending led to economic contractions. He said it can act as a hedge against the Fed cutting rates too early with the economy still strong. AdvertisementInvestors can gain exposure to gold through funds like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

Persons: St, Louis, Bob Elliott, Elliott, Louis Fed, It's Organizations: Service, Unlimited Funds, Bridgewater Associates, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trust

☆ S&P 500 rebounds to less than 1% from a record after orderly three-week pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.

Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital

☆ A software consultant trading stocks on the side is up 318% in 2024. He shares the stock screener he uses to find the trades he makes.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

He was 13 when he first heard about trading stocks. Finally, he filters for volume with the "50-day average volume"— the average number of shares traded daily over 50 days — above 25,000 shares. He had been watching Nvidia's chart since December, and it had a consistent 200-day moving average trend upward. As of January 3rd, it held above its 50-day moving average, bouncing off resistance points around $8.83 and $8.94 with minor pullbacks. The stock had a strong 150- and 200-day average uptrend.

Persons: Leoš, Benjamin Graham's, William O'Neil, Mark Minervini, Norman Zadeh, Mikulka Organizations: Investor's, Gamestop, US, Business, Apple, Nvidia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Holdings Locations: Prague, IBD

☆ Relief rally is 'questionable at best' and stocks to finish year lower from here, says Piper Sandler
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"This relief rally in equities is questionable at best," wrote chief market technician Craig Johnson. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year Year to date, the S & P 500 is up more than 8%, with the low end of the firm's range suggesting the benchmark could fall 10% from Friday's close. When an asset breaks above its 50-day moving average, it is seen as a sign of strong momentum. The S & P 500 on Monday rose, breaking above its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq is also trading above its 50-day average.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson, Stocks Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's, U.S

☆ A 26-year-old stock trader who made over $10.5 million in 4 years shares the strategy adjustment he made in 2024 that has allowed him to remain profitable
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In 2017, at 19 years old, Jack Kellogg became interested in stock trading. AdvertisementIn 2023, he took advantage of the AI hype by trading stocks within that theme. He then reviews these stocks' price movements over the previous three to two weeks. Where it's set depends on how much he's willing to risk on each position and varies based on the stock's price movements. While he's agnostic about the stock's cap size, he favors swing trading mid and sometimes small-cap stocks.

Persons: Jack Kellogg, Timothy Sykes, Kellogg, Kellogg wasn't Organizations: Business, BI, Trust, Nvidia, CXApp Inc

☆ JPMorgan is cautious on crypto as retail investors dump following ETF hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail dollars flowed out of bitcoin ETFs in April, and investors should adopt a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency for now, according to JPMorgan. "The past two weeks saw significant selling/profit taking with perhaps retail investors playing a bigger role than institutional investors," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Thursday. "Indeed, not only have spot bitcoin ETFs seen outflows in April but our proxies of the retail impulse into equities have also downshifted over the past month." Panigirtzoglou noted that in addition to crypto, retail investors also sold equities in April and that the impulse into stocks has also shifted down. "This is shown by … the net flow into equity funds including ETFs and mutual funds, typically used by retail investors … [which] turned negative in April after strong buying in February and March," he said.

Persons: JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, cryptocurrencies Organizations: JPMorgan, Metrics, Investors, Federal

☆ Recent breakdown suggests $52,000 is the next stop for bitcoin, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With bitcoin finally breaking below that support level at $60k this week, we see much further downside potential before the long-term uptrend resumes. You may also notice the breakdown below an ascending 50-day moving average during the second week in April. Going into May, bitcoin is making lower lows and lower highs, and now sits below a downward-sloping 50-day moving average. BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin, 1-year Where could we expect potential support if the downtrend continues? The 200-day moving average is right around there, and big round numbers like $50k and $60k have often served as important thresholds for the cryptocurrency.

Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, It's, David Keller Organizations: RSI, CMT

☆ S&P 500 forming a troubling 'bear flag' pattern, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients late Tuesday that the recent bounces for the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 look suspiciously like "bear flags," an ominous chart pattern. "Equities ended the month on a sour note, as last week's dead cat bounces stalled out beneath resistance. A "bear flag" is a technical pattern that sometimes develops during short-term bounces in a broader market decline. Last week, the S & P 500 rose 2.7%, its best weekly performance since November. Ginsberg said in the note that he sees potential downside to the 4,800 level on the S & P 500, which would equal a further decline of about 4.5%.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, doesn't, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq

☆ Bitcoin losses could steepen after the cryptocurrency breaks below $60,000, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bitcoin sell-off could get worse before it gets better, according to analysts who look only at price charts. The downtrend intensified on Wednesday when it tumbled under the $60,000 level for the first time since February, as stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy kept markets under pressure. That was a key support level for bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and 100-day moving average, according to Ari Wald, an analyst at Oppenheimer. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said $60,000 bitcoin looks "vulnerable" and that $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when the cryptocurrency reached new records and has failed multiple times to break out.

Persons: Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, It's, bitcoin, David Keller, Wald, Keller, Geoff Kendrick, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, —, Michael Bloom, Rob Ginsberg's Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Bitcoin tumbles 5%, tests key $60,000 price level as sell signal looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The crypto tested $60,000 on Tuesday and fell below a key support level of $61,100, according to Katie Stockton. Stockton said bitcoin is on the verge of flashing a sell signal based on a weekly momentum indicator. AdvertisementThe price of bitcoin dropped 5% on Tuesday, sending the cryptocurrency to test the key psychological level of $60,000. But bitcoin is on the verge of experiencing a double whammy as it breaks below a key technical support level and flashes a technical sell signal, according to Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. According to Stockton, bitcoin lost momentum near its 50-day moving average of about $66,900, which proved to be stiff technical resistance.

Persons: Bitcoin, Katie Stockton, bitcoin, —, Stockton Organizations: Service Locations: Stockton

☆ Corporate earnings solid so far, despite threats from a slowing economy and sticky inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Valuations coming down So if earnings are up, why is the S & P off its highs? Today, a month later, 2024 earnings estimates are essentially the same but the multiple has declined to 20.8. The S & P 500 hit a low of 4,117 on Oct. 27 and only recovered when rates came down in early November. There are some big drags on earnings Some companies are seeing large declines in earnings estimates that are weighing on their sectors. When including this one-time item, the S & P 500 earnings growth rate for the first quarter declines to 5.6%, from 8.7%, LSEG has noted.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Suh, Stephen Squeri, Hess, Nick Raich, LSEG, Hal Lawton, Brian Niccol, CNBC's Kate Rogers, Horton, Paul Romanowski, Kimberly, Clark, Michael Hsu Organizations: Companies, Netflix, JPMorgan, GE Aerospace, Caterpillar, Microsoft, Merck, Ford, Waste Management, Royal, Consumer, American Express, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Apache, Valero Energy, Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Scout, Bristol Myers Squibb, Karuna Therapeutics, Boeing, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: financials, industrials, Royal Caribbean, North America

☆ Here's why this financial technology fund could break out during earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients Wednesday that the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) looks attractive after a long period of underperforming the broader market. "Now that we're past much of the big bank earnings, there are a number of fintech and financial service names on the docket this week and next. FINX 5Y mountain The FINX ETF has shown early signs of a rebound in 2024. Ginsberg wrote that the ETF has some positive technical signals of its own. To be sure, earnings reports could prove to be a downside catalyst for financial technology stocks and the fund.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: titans, Wolfe Research, Paypal Locations: Fintech, FINX

☆ Apple shares could be primed for a rebound, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors have gotten so used to the stock making new highs every year that during the times in which this doesn't happen, concerns intensify. AAPL vs. its 200-day moving average AAPL has also been trading below its 200-day moving average for over two months. Indeed, it's spent more time below the long-term moving average over the years, but reclaiming the line has triggered newfound strength in the past. The big topping pattern is not bearish Another potential positive is that Apple's sporting a big bearish topping pattern on its weekly chart. DISCLOSURES: Cappelleri personally owns AAPL stock.

Persons: There's, it's, Said, AAPL, Cappelleri Organizations: Apple, Downside

☆ A bearish options trade on this health care giant that's starting to show signs of cracking
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, with broader market indicators showing signs of weakness, UNH is starting to reveal cracks — and the once-strong rally appears to be losing steam. The trade setup The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread." Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. Since the width of our spread is $495– $490 = $5, I can buy the spread for $2.50. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: UnitedHealth, UNH, ADX, Nishant Pant Organizations: Change, ½

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