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☆ CNBC Daily Open: After SVB collapse, stricter rules coming for banks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. In a bizarre way, even if that's bad news for inflation, that's probably good news for everyone who's been consumed by banking fears in recent days. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: UBS gets a new (old) Group CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This suggests UBS is prioritizing stability as it proceeds with its merger with Credit Suisse. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Mortgage demand increases again, but interest rates are rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Mortgage demand has increased for three straight weeks now, as interest rates dropped in response to the recent bank failures. "However, mortgage rates have not dropped as much as Treasury rates due to increased MBS market volatility." Refinance demand is highly sensitive to weekly rate moves, but there are precious few borrowers right now who can still benefit from a refinance at today's higher interest rates. Today's homebuyers may be less influenced by weekly interest rate moves and more influenced by the state of the economy. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed exactly, but they do respond to its perception of the overall economy.

☆ The bank panic is subsiding just in time for the Fed to
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —One week ago, right in this here newsletter, I wrote about how Wall Street was having a Zen moment. In the optimistic camp: “The bank crisis-ette is over,” Daniel Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told me. And it will be the first time the world hears from Fed officials since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, thanks to a cosmic twist of timing. But because of the banking turmoil, there is a chance the Fed would decide not to raise rates this time around. If the Fed feels the crisis has passed, Alpert said, it will be emboldened to go for the quarter-point hike.

☆ US expected to report strong consumer price increases in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.

Kashkari, a voter on Fed rate policy this year, said he had not made a final call yet on a new projection for the target federal funds rate. But "at this point...I lean towards continuing to raise further," beyond the 5.4% level that he previously thought would be adequate to lower inflation. Fed officials will submit new projections at a meeting in three weeks, and analysts and investors expect the median rate seen by officials for the end of 2023 will move perhaps a quarter point higher than the 5.1% anticipated as of December. The federal funds rate is currently set in a range from 4.5% to 4.75% after a rapid set of rate increases last year lifted it from a near zero level. The jump in inflation in January, however, has not prompted a universal call to respond.

☆ U.S. business activity rebounds to eight-month high in February- S&P Global survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey on Tuesday, which also showed inflation subsiding. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 50.2 this month from a final reading of 46.8 in January. The services sector accounted for the rise in business activity, while manufacturing remained weak. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 from 46.9 in January. The survey's flash services sector PMI increased to 50.5 from 46.8 in January.

☆ Gas, airfares, car insurance: How transportation costs are impacting high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty ImagesMeanwhile, fuel oil dipped 1.2% in January but was up 27.7% for the past 12 months. While high gas prices made headlines in 2022, prompting gas tax holidays in some states, those prices have subsided from last year's highs. Gas prices "did rise in January and that was mostly due to the weather," said Andrew Gross, spokesperson at AAA. Other transportation costs are in fluxNew vehicles are up 5.8% over the past 12 months ending Jan. 30, and up 0.2% for the month. However, used cars and trucks, a category that surged during record high inflation, are now down 11.6% for the past 12 months and down 1.9% for January.

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI increased 6%, still elevated but well off its 11.6% peak in March 2022. The PPI increase came amid a 5% increase in energy costs but a 1% decline in food. About one-third of that increase came from a 6.2% increase in the gasoline index. The services index rose 0.4%, pushed by a 0.6% increase in prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing.

☆ Household budgets are shredded: These stocks will benefit as consumers trade down to store brands
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

Shoppers are largely creatures of habit, but after two years of rising prices, a broader shift to private label brands is underway. 'A tailwind' for private label That is good news for store brands, otherwise known as private label. Yet the biggest pure play on private label brands is Treehouse Foods , Chappell said. "That's where you're going to see them lean into store brands," said Mary Ellen Lynch, principal of IRI's center store solutions. Americans forced to trade down due to supply chain constraints found store brands they enjoyed, she said.

☆ New Adidas CEO throws Yeezy in kitchen sink
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But if Adidas decides to write off the Yeezy inventory altogether, it will lose another 500 million euros. In the worst scenario, with one-off costs in 2023 of up to 200 million euros, the $27 billion sportswear maker expects to report a 700 million euro operating loss this year. The company had already announced that ending its partnership with the musician would shrink its net income by 250 million euros in 2022. Shareholders however seem surprised that Adidas might not try to repurpose the trainers, instead of writing off the inventory. Yeezy is not the only problem for Adidas.

☆ China's economy will grow 5% this year, Fitch Ratings says in upgraded forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's economy will expand by 5% in 2023, Fitch Ratings said in a revised forecast on Wednesday – an improved outlook from its previous 4.1% growth prediction made in December. Fitch also pointed to China's latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing and services, a measure of business activity, that indicated further growth. China's official manufacturing PMI reading rose to 50.1 in January from a previous reading of 47, and its services PMI rose to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022. A value above 50 indicates expansion of economic activity; a reading below 50 points to a contraction. The economists also noted China's gross domestic product reading in December was better than Fitch had expected.

☆ A flurry of earnings reports, Fed rate hike, signs of a bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Earnings season continues next week, with Club holdings Linde (LIN), Emerson Electric (EMR) and Walt Disney (DIS) all set to report. Similarly, shares of Meta Platforms (META) have surged over 20% since CEO Mark Zuckerberg reassured investors Wednesday evening that 2023 would be the technology giant's "year of efficiency." The bull case is further supported by continued signs inflation is easing, a still-robust job market and the breadth of market-buying activity since the start of the year. Lastly on Wednesday, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Breakingviews: Bottling U.S. inflation could cost workers dearly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Federal Reserve is being relentless in its quest to bring inflation down to 2%, from its latest reading of 5%. Given the vagaries of inflation psychology, it’s not clear the Fed is justified in being so single-minded. By the officials’ own forecasts, the inflation fight will hurt hundreds of thousands of workers. And Americans routinely overestimate how high inflation will run in the next year, according to the New York Fed, typically expecting around 3%. Projections published by the central bank at the December meeting showed inflation returning to 2% in 2025.

☆ Bottling U.S. inflation could cost workers dearly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Given the vagaries of inflation psychology, it’s not clear the Fed is justified in being so single-minded. By the officials’ own forecasts, the inflation fight will hurt hundreds of thousands of workers. Projections published after the Fed’s December meeting suggest the view that by the time inflation returns to 2% in 2025, unemployment will have risen to 4%, from 3.5% in December. And Americans routinely overestimate how high inflation will run in the next year, according to the New York Fed, typically expecting around 3%. Projections published by the central bank at the December meeting showed inflation returning to 2% in 2025.

☆ US wage growth is slowing and not keeping pace with inflation — but that doesn't mean the Fed will stop hiking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Growth in US wages and salaries slowed to 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter. As inflation remains high, the Fed may continue hiking interest rates — meaning wage growth could continue to trend slower. Wages and salaries for civilians rose 1% in the fourth quarter from a quarter ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report. In real terms though, wages and salaries actually declined by 1.2% for the whole of 2022, thanks to high inflation rates. But it doesn't mean the Fed's going to walk away from hiking rates because inflation remains elevated.

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Tesla, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Chevron, Meta, Shopify & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Morgan Stanley upgrades Colgate-Palmolive to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its upgrade of Colgate that it sees an attractive entry point. "We upgrade shares from Neutral to Buy as we see the last of tough comparables for SHOP subsiding entering '23." Bank of America reiterates Meta as neutral Bank of America says it's cautious heading into Meta earnings on Wednesday. Berenberg upgrades Tesla to buy from hold Berenberg said in its upgrade of Tesla that "factory innovations support long-term margins." Morgan Stanley reiterates Southwest Airlines as overweight Morgan Stanley says it's sticking with shares of the airline.

☆ Dollar eases as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro on Wednesday, but its losses were capped as traders were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September. The dollar was down 0.42% against the yen , at 129.615 yen per dollar, having hit a near eight-month low of 127.215 on Jan. 16.

☆ Dollar edges down as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro on Wednesday in subdued trading as investors were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. Expectations of further rate increases by the European Central Bank have also supported the euro. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh-straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September.

☆ Jeremy Grantham says the first leg of bursting bubble is complete, but still more losses to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets including the one last year, said investors should brace for even more losses in 2023 as the bursting of the growth stock bubble was just the beginning. "Given the complexities of an ever-changing world, investors should have far less certainty about the timing and extent of the next leg down from here." Grantham, the co-founder of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo in 1977, is a widely-followed investor and market historian with a track record of identifying market bubbles. He foresaw the 2008 bear market and the dot-com bubble-bursting of 2000. Despite the great uncertainties ahead, there are still a number of reasonable investment opportunities in the markets, including emerging markets, which are reasonably priced, Grantham said.

☆ U.S. economy losing momentum as retail sales post biggest drop in 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The second straight monthly decrease in retail sales, which are mostly goods, is undercutting production at factories. Retail sales plummeted 1.1% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon 1 2Retail salesMANUFACTURING OUTPUT FALLSExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales fell 0.7% last month. The weakness in core retail sales is likely to be offset by anticipated gains in services spending. The government reported last week that monthly consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December.

☆ Treasury yields, dollar fall after U.S. data; yen flat in wake of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The drop in U.S. retail sales, together with subsiding inflation, could encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. But in late-morning U.S. trading, the dollar was little changed against the yen . "The PPI and retail sales numbers show that there are disinflationary pressures going on," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

☆ U.S. producer prices fall more than expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in December as the costs of energy products and food declined, offering more evidence that inflation was receding. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% last month, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Data for November was revised lower to show the PPI rising 0.2% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Goods, which gained 0.1% in November, were pulled down by a 7.9% plunge in energy and a 1.2% drop in food prices. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices gained 0.1% in December.

Brent futures rose 72 cents, or 0.8%, to $86.64 a barrel by 11:46 a.m. EST (1646 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 94 cents, or 1.2%, to $81.12. But the data still beat analysts' forecasts after China started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December. The lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in China is set to boost global oil demand to a record high this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while price cap sanctions on Russia could dent supply. A report showing U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in December provided some counterintuitive support for oil prices. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies.

☆ U.S. consumer inflation expectations fall in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month from 4.4% in December. Inflation is abating as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes cool demand, and supply chain bottlenecks ease. With inflation subsiding, consumers' spirits are perking up. The University of Michigan's preliminary January reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 64.6, up from 59.7 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 60.5.

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