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☆ Reaction to China relaxing COVID restrictions in major policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REDMOND WONG, GREATER CHINA MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, HONG KONG"The 10 new measures are underwhelming, given the high expectations. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG"The latest announcements show China is determined to speed up its reopening due to economic pressure. It is likely to see upswings cyclically in business sentiment from suppressed demand, especially in sectors heavily affected by the covid restrictions. "The next checkpoint will be Chinese New Year; I think markets are looking for further relaxation to facilitate return to their hometowns by Chinese New Year." SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE"I think markets have, in some ways, priced in that element (of further easing).

☆ UK PMI sticks near 21-month low as orders weaken
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PMI readings below 50 represent economic contraction, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the flash PMI to fall again this month to 47.5. IHS Markit said that aside from the pandemic, the UK PMI was now pointing to the biggest quarterly fall in economic output since early 2009, during the global financial crisis, with a drop of 0.4%. The PMI showed new orders fell at the fastest rate since January 2021 and that employment growth had slowed. However, firms reported the weakest inflation pressures in more than a year, although they remained high by historic standards. Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Insana: The ‘7% solution’ on interest rates could come back to haunt the Federal Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A trader watches as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard suggested on Thursday that the central bank might have to raise short-term interest rates as high as 7% to ensure that inflation goes away. Once again, Bullard and other Fed officials say that the central bank cannot repeat the policy errors of the 1970s. Raising rates by up to three full percentage points from the Fed's current target range of 3.75% to 4% would ensure a very deep recession. That's the case whether its headline or core consumer prices or other measures of inflation more closely watched by the Fed.

An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. Here is a quick primer on what an inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. "It's not unusual to get a yield curve inversion but it is unusual to get one of this magnitude. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.

Here is a quick primer on what a steep, flat or inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. read more read moreWHAT DOES AN INVERTED CURVE MEAN? Before this year, the last time the 2/10 part of the curve inverted was in 2019. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks would still need to fall more than 50% just to reach valuation norms — and warns of an 'avalanche of earnings disappointments'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman says stocks would have to fall more than 50% further to hit valuation norms. Stocks have staged an impressive rally in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 up 9% since October 12. For Hussman, valuations are still too high, even though the benchmark index has fallen as much as 25% this year. Still, valuations are nowhere near levels that we associate with satisfactory long-term market returns, so I suspect that more shoes will drop." The earnings disappointments Hussman sees will be caused by restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that weigh on demand.

☆ UK gilt yields rise after plunging on BoE action
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Thirty-year gilt yields , which surged to a 20-year high above 5% on Wednesday before dropping by more than 100 basis points after the BoE intervention, were up about 2 basis points at 3.96% at 0904 GMT. Twenty-year gilt yields rose about 6 basis points (bps) to 4.20%, having earlier hit a high of 4.309%, also reversing only a small part of their fall on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterShorter-dated gilt yields rose more strongly with two-year yields adding about 13 bps to 4.38%, having risen as high as 4.48%, though they remained well below a post-2008 peak of 4.761% hit on Tuesday. Theo Chapsalis, head of UK rates strategy at Morgan Stanley, forecast on Thursday that the BoE action would help 10-year yields stabilise at a level below 4.1%. At its first auction on Wednesday, it accepted offers of 1.025 billion pounds of gilts out of 2.587 billion pounds of offers submitted.

☆ Central banks around the world are willing to risk recession to fight inflation — and early signs suggest widespread pain for everyone, everywhere
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

How a mild US slump becomes a deep global recessionMore than 80 central banks are staring down the same problem. That followed a hike of the same size by the European Central Bank on September 8. That so many central banks share the Fed's outlook could become a huge problem. "But because they are highly synchronous across countries, they could be mutually compounding in tightening financial conditions and steepening the global growth slowdown." Central banks could be mere months away from a lose-lose scenario.

☆ Fund manager names 2 UK stocks he says look very attractive right now
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should pay close attention to two very different U.K. stocks right now, according to SVM Asset Management's Investment Director Neil Veitch, who named financial services group Lloyds Bank and sports clothing retailer JD Sports . Lloyds For Lloyds, the U.K.'s steepening interest rate curve is an advantage as higher rates quickly translate into earnings and the creation of capital for the bank, Veitch argued. Even a recession — which Veitch believes would be shallow — and associated credit losses should therefore be "manageable," he added. "Its got a medium-term growth outlook, as I say, from the Europe and U.S. all trading on 10 times earnings. Ten times earnings means a stock is trading at a multiple that is equal to 10 times the company's earnings.

☆ Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Estee Lauder, Cisco, Micron, PayPal, Nvidia & more
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Deutsche Bank reiterates Nike as buy Deutsche said it's standing by shares of Nike heading into earnings next week. Canaccord downgrades Stitch Fix to neutral from buy Canaccord downgraded the online personal styling service after the company's disappointing earnings report. " Goldman Sachs upgrades Estee Lauder to buy from neutral Goldman said in its upgrade of the stock that investors should buy the weakness. Deutsche Bank reiterates Costco as buy Deutsche said it sees upside potential heading into earnings on Thursday. " Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America said its survey checks on Apple show that carrier promos are driving more consumers to upgrade iPhones.

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