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US stocks are set to give up almost all of their year-to-date gains, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors are starting to gravitate toward high-quality growth stocks despite high interest rates, according to Morgan Stanley. 9 defensive stocks to buy nowIn his note, Wilson updated Morgan Stanley's fresh-money buy list of stocks worth owning now. Despite what the name might suggest, these aren't new recommendations, but are rather firms that Morgan Stanley is very bullish on. Morgan StanleyBelow are the nine names on Morgan Stanley's fresh-money buy list, along with the ticker, market capitalization, sector, price target, and percent upside to that target for each.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, that's, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Wilson
Reports: Smooth, But Slow Sailing for the Economy
  + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Tim Smart | Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
A trio of economic reports on Tuesday found the U.S. economy generally facing slowing inflation, a weakening but still challenging labor market and diminishing odds of an imminent recession. Yet inflation remains a concern for many businesses, especially smaller ones, according to the August small business optimism index from NFIB. Although the panel of economists sees the economy slowing in the quarter that begins Oct. 1, they also see a reduction in the odds of a recession. The panel forecasts a 48% chance of a recession, down from 50% a month ago and 56% in July. At the same time, the economists see the unemployment rate rising from its current 3.8% to 4.5% by next summer.
Persons: , Bill Dunkelberg, ” Jeffrey Roach, , ” Roach Organizations: Federal, Adobe, Computers, Chip, Wolters Kluwer, LPL Locations: U.S
It was a down week for the major stock market benchmarks as rumors of an iPhone ban for government employees in China sparked concerns over increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Here's a full rundown of all the important domestic earnings reports and economic data in the week ahead. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Apple —, Jim, we'll, Einstein, Stellantis, We'll, That's, Oracle's, LEN, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Apple, Dow, Nasdaq, Broadcom, DuPont, Huawei, Nvidia, Apple Watch, Vision, Club, Google, Justice Department, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, UAW, CPI, PPI, Oracle, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Microsoft, Costco, Caseys, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Apple Inc, Getty Locations: China, Washington, Beijing, U.S, People's Republic of China, San Francisco, Shanghai
"Results do not suggest that C3 is benefiting from growing demand for AI," analyst Brad Sills said of the company, which trades under the ticker AI. AI is the hottest trend going in the stock market with chipmaker Nvidia leading the way, up more than 200% this year. But it only reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance, which to Sills "does not suggest C3 benefiting from AI tailwinds." "Following the release of ChatGPT in November of 2022, we're seeing a dramatic increase in demand for enterprise AI adoption," he said on the call. "In Q1, we experienced strong traction with our enterprise AI applications and especially strong traction with C3 Generative AI."
Persons: Brad Sills, Sills, Thomas Siebel, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, John Melloy Organizations: Bank of, Nvidia, LSEG, Bank of America Locations: Wednesday's
US stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday as a spike in oil prices reignited inflation fears. If inflation reaccelerates, it could force the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes. Fed Governor Chris Waller said recent economic data suggests the Fed can "proceed carefully" with further rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures are currently pricing in no more interest rate hikes for this cycle and a potential interest rate cut by May 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are awaiting more Fedspeak later this week to ascertain whether more interest rate hikes in store.
Persons: Chris Waller, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, CNBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Saudi Arabia, Russia
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered its probability that a U.S recession would start in the next 12 months to 15% from an earlier 20% forecast. The continued positive inflation and labor market data led to the cut, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note. It also noted the drag from monetary policy tightening will continue to diminish before "vanishing entirely" by early 2024. Goldman added that it expected "very gradual" cuts of 25 basis points per quarter starting in second quarter of 2024. Reporting by Aniruddha Ghosh and Roshan Abraham in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Jerome Powell's, Aniruddha Ghosh, Roshan Abraham, Rashmi Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, GS, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
One of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy is a gasoline price shock, according to Carson Group's Sonu Varghese. Gas prices are already up 23% year to date, and a further rise could reaccelerate inflation. His big worry is that surging gas prices can have a negative knock-on effect on the broader economy. That's because higher gas prices at the pump weigh heavily on consumer sentiment and can lead to curtailed spending. While he remains bullish on the outlook for the stock market and economy, he does worry that another gasoline price shock could serve as a big headwind for investors and consumers.
Persons: Carson Group's Sonu Varghese, Sonu Varghese, that's, Varghese, there's Organizations: Service, Carson Group, Energy Information Administration, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, Ukraine, Louisiana
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are driving the strength of the US economy, says NB Private Wealth's Shannon SaccociaShannon Saccocia, CIO of NB Private Wealth, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Powell's less hawkish commentary, a renewed focus on the data dependency of monetary policy, and the reacceleration in food and energy prices.
Persons: Wealth's Shannon Saccocia Shannon Saccocia Organizations: Consumers
[1/2] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks in Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole economic symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Investors may be underestimating the degree of potential market turbulence stemming from the Federal Reserve's economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, potentially leaving them more vulnerable to a hawkish surprise, options strategists said. This year's symposium also comes at a time when various asset classes have become more vulnerable to outsized moves following the Jackson Hole event, according to an analysis by derivatives strategists at Barclays. Across asset classes, the average volatility-adjusted move around Jackson Hole has almost doubled in the 2017-2022 period, compared with 2010-2016, the bank's strategists wrote in a note on Tuesday. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, Powell, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick, Chris Murphy, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Interactive, Reuters Graphics, Bank of America, Barclays, Treasury, Susquehanna Financial Group, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming
S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3% while Nasdaq futures rose 0.4%. Its blockbuster report last quarter fueled a rally in tech stocks and artificial intelligence hopes, propelling the S&P 500 this year. Shares of Nvidia hit an all-time high of $481.87 overnight, with options data showing traders are expecting a larger-than-usual swing in shares after the quarterly results. The Dow Jones (.DJI) fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.1%. Financial shares underperformed, with the S&P 500 banks (.SPXBK) sliding 2.4%, after S&P joined Moody's to downgrade multiple regional U.S. lenders.
Persons: Issei Kato, Powell's Jackson, Nvidia NVDA.O, Stuart Humphrey, Humphrey, Dow Jones, Moody's, Treasuries, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Markets, Nvidia, SYDNEY, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, JPMorgan, Financial, Richmond Fed, U.S ., Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, United States, U.S, China, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Deutsche Bank reiterates Charles Schwab as buy Deutsche said it sees an even "more" attractive risk/reward for Schwab shares after Tuesday's sell-off. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said Apple has "surpassed MSFT as the most under-owned large-cap tech stock exiting the second-quarter." Bank of America reiterates Meta as buy Bank of America said it sees more upside for shares of Meta. Bank of America reiterates Five Below as buy Bank of America said it's standing by shares of the discount retailer. Bank of America downgrades Dick's to neutral from buy Bank of America downgraded the stock after its disappointing earnings report Tuesday.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Schwab, SCHW, Wells Fargo, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Apple, Oppenheimer, Brown, Forman, GM headwinds, Edward Jones, DUK, Avery Dennison, Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Susquehanna, Marvell Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Signet, Netflix, GM, Edward, Bank of America, Meta, Barclays, Duke Energy, JPMorgan, UBS, " Bank of America, Infosys, India IT, Marvell Locations: AAPL, 4Q23, Louisiana, Pacific, LPX, India
US stocks still have further room to run, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in stocks that started earlier this year isn't ending anytime soon, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. TS Lombard highlighted eight charts to back up its bullish view on the US stock market. The Fed is approaching the top of its hiking cycle, although markets discounting early cuts may be too optimistic," TS Lombard said. Sentiment has largely normalized now; and the S&P 500, if anything, appears oversold today," TS Lombard said.
Persons: Andrea Cicione, Skylar Koning, Lombard, Disinflation, GlobalData Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard
LONDON — European stock markets were higher Wednesday, with attention focused on earnings and central bank comments in the U.S. The Stoxx 600 index was up by 0.45% at 8:45 a.m. BST, with most sectors nudging higher. Autos stocks were down by 0.46% after the release of grim PMI figures for Germany, which showed a deepening downturn in manufacturing output and plunge in business activity. European marketsGlobally, investors will be poring over California-based chip designer Nvidia 's results to see how it performs against high Wall Street expectations after a stellar first quarter. The rise in long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting its highest level since 2007, eased Tuesday.
Persons: Nvidia, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Thomas Barkin, Barkin Organizations: U.S, Activision, Treasury, Richmond Fed Locations: Germany, California, U.S
Morning Bid: Move over bond selloff, it's Nvidia time
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Today, though, yields have finally taken a breather, just in time for Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings to take the spotlight. The chip designer at the centre of global AI euphoria releases financial results and forecasts following today's closing bell. Reuters GraphicsBack in the world of bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield continued its retreat from yesterday's peak of 4.366% in Asia time, slipping below 4.3%. It's a welcome respite from the steep bond selloff that had pushed yields up as much as 57 basis points in a month. A 20-year Treasury auction later today will provide a test of demand for yields at such elevated levels.
Persons: Kevin Buckland, Jackson, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, confab, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Staff, Nvidia, Reuters, Treasury, People's Bank of China, Bank of, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, Germany, Asia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Britain, France
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, , Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, , Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America
Peloton on Wednesday reported a wider than expected loss and a quarterly drop in new subscribers that it blamed on its recall of its Bike seat post and seasonality, sending shares plunging about 25% in premarket trading. It ended the quarter with 3.08 million subscribers, up 4% year over year and in line with the company's expectations. But compared to last quarter, subscribers declined by 29,000. The former Netflix and Spotify executive has spent the last three months focusing on new strategies aimed at getting the fitness company back on a path to growth. Clients include Volvo, which has Peloton bikes in its company fitness center and offers employees access to the Peloton app, its all access membership and discounts on hardware, including the Bike, Bike+, Tread and Guide.
Persons: Barry McCarthy, McCarthy, Leslie Berland Organizations: Refinitiv, Consumers, Netflix, Spotify, Business, Volvo, Dropbox, University of Michigan, Big Locations: Dusseldorf, Germany
Moody's says that consumer savings rates are rising after bottoming out in June 2022. "We still see it as a normalization, not a deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit.'' But consumer loan delinquency rates are at 2019 levels, and below any level ever seen before 2014, according to Federal Reserve data. At JPMorgan, mortgage credit quality is so solid that the bank reported no net chargeoffs in the second quarter. Overall, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says consumer spending on new vehicles rose $40 billion to $642.4 billion in the first half of the year, with most gains coming in the second quarter.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Arun Sundaram, haven't, Alastair Borthwick, Moody's, Scott Hoyt, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Barnum, David Fieldhouse, Hoyt, Sundaram, Horton, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Chevrolet, Knapp, Getty, Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Bank of America, CFRA, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Federal, Wall, General Motors, GM, Ford, U.S, Toll, Pride Locations: Houston , Texas
That includes a possibility "that inflation stays high and the economy strengthens," Barkin said. Barkin said there was nothing in the recent market movements which caused him to think financial conditions were tightening too quickly or in ways that were concerning. "It doesn't strike me that having a 10-year rate over 4 (percent) is somehow wildly inappropriate," given the Fed's current policy rate, Barkin said. Rates seem to be increasing "as best I can tell with the strength of the economic data ... If consumer spending and retail sales continue to be that strong ... it's probably appropriate."
Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, it's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, U.S, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, .
David Einhorn expects stubborn inflation and the Fed to only cut interest rates next year. If inflation sees a resurgence and rates go higher, that could threaten the current bull market, he says. They may be celebrating too soon, hedge fund boss David Einhorn warned in his quarterly letter to investors this week. He viewed the move as bullish for stocks and likely to fuel inflation at the time. "If we were 'bearish' until March and 'neutral' through June, we would now characterizeourselves as 'worried,'" the veteran investor said.
Persons: David Einhorn, he's, ValueWalk, Einhorn, Greenlight Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
A raft of economic data and big retail earnings reports next week will give traders insight into the strength of the consumer after a mixed batch of inflation data. "Next week is all about the consumer," said Shannon Saccocia, investment chief at NB Private Wealth. The Nasdaq Composite fell for a second straight week for the first time in 2023 after mixed inflation data this week, as well as Moody's downgrading several regional banks. July's consumer price index came in weaker than expected, but continued to show some underlying stickiness. Housing data expected to show strength Investors will also watch data on what has been a strong housing market.
Persons: Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, , we've, John Porter, it's, Wealth's Saccocia, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Versace, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors, That's, Sam Stovall, Stovall, CFRA's Stovall, Estee Organizations: Home Depot, Walmart, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Newton Investment Management, FactSet, . Discount, TJX Companies, Ross, Homeowners, Price, Retail, Health, Home, Agilent Technologies, Housing, Manufacturing, TJX, Target, Cisco Systems, Philadelphia Fed, Applied, Deere, Co, Companies, Palo Alto Locations: U.S, NAHB, Housing States
Amazon can build on its already stellar year as revenue from its cloud business picks up steam once again, according to boutique equity research firm Redburn. The analyst cited the potential for Amazon Web Services — the company's cloud computing business — to see growth reignited after a slowdown. AWS holds leading market positions in areas such as databases, data warehouses, data lakes and machine learning, Haissl said. AWS reported 12% growth in the second quarter, surpassing analysts' forecast by 200 basis points, according to the note. Haissl also expects AWS revenue to grow by more than 20% and 30% in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively.
Persons: Alex Haissl, Haissl, Gartner, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Amazon Web, AWS, Amazon Locations: Thursday's, 2Q23
REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerAug 10 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates again in 2023 and will probably start cutting them early next year, traders bet on Thursday, after a U.S. government report showed consumer prices rose only moderately last month. Traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 10% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase its benchmark overnight interest rate from its current 5.25%-5.50% range at a Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. The Fed's first rate cut is priced into the futures contracts by March of 2024. The Fed has driven its policy rate up by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. "There's always a chance we get reacceleration of inflation prints after October, but I don't think that's going to spur Fed action."
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Guy Lebas, Janney Montgomery Scott, Ann Saphir, Karen Brettell, Lucia Mutikani, Bernadette Baum, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Traders, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is getting more bullish on Amazon as the e-commerce retailer's Amazon Web Services and North American retail segments "near inflection points." Wells Fargo Investment Institute's focus list aims to beat the S & P 500 over a roughly one-year period on a total return basis. AMZN YTD mountain Shares have rallied more than 65% this year Amazon shares have rallied more than 65% this year. "More importantly, we see re-acceleration in growth, even a modest one, in core AWS functions over the next few years as a key catalyst for the stock," Pfeffer wrote. Wells Fargo is also gaining more confidence in Amazon's retail business in North America, as it builds up regional utilization and benefits from lower transportation rates and shipping costs.
Persons: Lawrence Pfeffer, Wells Fargo's, it's, Pfeffer, Wells Fargo, Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment Institute, Web Services, O'Reilly Automotive, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Amazon Locations: Wells, American, Wells Fargo, North America
Top tech investor Paul Meeks says he'll likely buy the dip in stocks, as he doesn't expect a significant and long-lasting downturn, he told CNBC. "Tech and aggressive growth stocks in particular, have done so well, this year, probably got way ahead of themselves going up too far too fast. The five tech stocks he said he would buy are Meta , Alphabet , Extreme Networks , Arista Networks and Shopify . Meeks added that he would also consider one small-cap tech stock that's "too cheap:" Harmonic , a video-streaming tech company. Here's how much average potential upside Wall Street is giving the stocks Meeks mentioned, according to FactSet.
Persons: Paul Meeks, he'll, Meeks, CNBC's, Amazon Meeks, He's, AAPL Organizations: CNBC, Wall, Nasdaq, Dow, Tech, Independent Solutions Wealth Management, Networks, Arista Networks, Apple, titans Apple, Oracle Locations: U.S, China
Wall Street analysts are bullish on Amazon heading into earnings. Here's how several analysts are trading Amazon ahead of its latest earnings report. Bank of America is also bullish, maintaining its buy rating and $154 price target into earnings, which suggests roughly 20% upside. "We continue to see an attractive set-up on the stock based on our Triple Trough Thesis (trough multiple, trough margin, and trough revenue growth). On Monday, the firm reiterated its buy rating and $145 price target, which suggests 13% upside from Wednesday's close.
Persons: StreetAccount, Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak, Nowak, Lloyd Walmsley, Walmsley, Justin Post, Amazon's, Mark Mahaney's, Mahaney, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Amazon Web Services, UBS, Bank of America, AWS, Triple, Citi Locations: 1Q23
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