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Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell dip, says BofA's Chris HyzyChris Hyzy, Merrill & BoA chief investment officer, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss finding opportunity in the Russell 2000 and he offers his market playbook.
Persons: Russell, Chris Hyzy Chris Hyzy, Merrill
Alpha capture strategies take inputs from sources like human traders, market data, sell-side research, and more and then use a systematic process to create a portfolio that is efficiently sized and hedged. CenterBook uses trading data from dozens of external firms to create its portfolios, while Norias will create its book off the ideas of its fundamental analysts. Meanwhile, Man Group is building out an alpha capture team within its AHL unit's special strategies team, a recent job posting states, and Squarepoint is doubling its team, finding external managers for its buy-side alpha capture program. "It is a way for them to increase their capacity and take in more assets," said Kevin Lyons, senior investment manager at Abrdn, about the largest platforms growing their internal alpha capture capabilities. AdvertisementThe alpha capture OGIt can all be tied back to the success of the original mainstream alpha capture strategy: Marshall Wace's TOPS, which stands for Trade Optimized Portfolio System.
Persons: , Marshall Wace, Doug Haynes, Norias, Basil Qunibi, Squarepoint quant Warren Touwen, Merrill Lynch, Squarepoint, Touwen, Kevin Lyons, Marshall, Anthony Clarke, Cameron Hight, Hight, it's, headhunter Organizations: Service, Business, CenterBook Partners, Research, Investors, AHL, TOPS Locations: Austin, Abrdn, London
Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.
Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, , Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyAI (literally) in your pocketTech workers are criticizing Humane's hotly anticipated Ai pin. AdvertisementIn fact, heavy hitters like legendary investor Vinod Khosla believe that AI devices will completely change how we interact with technology. Humane's Ai Pin, which can project text onto users' hands and translate voice messages, didn't get a warm welcome when it launched late last year .
Persons: , Oompa, I've, Willy Wonka, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Humane's, Vinod Khosla, Samantha Stokes, Vishal Persaud, Khosla, Ai, didn't, Tim Cook, Salesforce's Marc Benioff, OpenAI's Sam Altman, Franck Robichon, Paul Krugman, shouldn't, we're, Wells, Bank of America's Merrill, Bitcoin, Tyler Le, maven, Alexei Navalny's, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Humane, Khosla Ventures, Rabbit, Bank of America's, Wall, The New York Times, WW, SEC Locations: Franck, Wells Fargo, New York, London
Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."
Persons: , Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American
Wells Fargo and Bank of America's Merill will be offering bitcoin ETFs to clients, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley is another large firm looking into offering spot bitcoin ETFs, Coindesk reported. "Spot bitcoin ETFs are available for unsolicited purchases through an advisor with Wells Fargo Advisors or through our online WellsTrade platform," Sarah Kerr, a Wells Fargo spokesperson, confirmed to Business Insider. With bitcoin ETFs, retail investors can get exposure to the cryptocurrency's price movements without having to directly buy bitcoin through a less regulated exchange. In the weeks since US regulators approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in January, the investment vehicles saw record-high trading volumes.
Persons: Wells, Morgan Stanley, , Bank of America's Merrill, Wells Fargo, Sarah Kerr, Merrill, Coindesk, Bloomberg's James Seyffart, Janel Jackson Organizations: Bank, America's, Bloomberg, Service, Bank of America's, SEC, Advisors, Business, Vanguard Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells
CNN —In a surprise move, an Illinois judge has removed former President Donald Trump from the state’s ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s so-called “insurrectionist ban.”The decision is paused, giving Trump a short period of time to appeal. “The Illinois State Board of Election shall remove Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed.”The judge stripped Trump from the Illinois ballot one month after the anti-Trump challenge was dismissed by the Illinois State Board of Elections. Illinois is now the third state where Trump was booted from the ballot, after Colorado and Maine. But those decisions were paused pending the appeal of the Colorado case to the US Supreme Court. Trump can appeal the judge’s decision in Illinois state courts.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Tracie Porter, Colorado’s, , ” Porter, Donald J, , Porter, Jose Luis Magana, Nicholas Nelson, ” Nelson, Adam Merrill, ” Merrill, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz, Eric Bradner Organizations: CNN, Trump, Colorado Supreme, Illinois State, AP Trump, GOP Locations: Illinois, Colorado, Cook, Maine, Michigan , Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, ” Illinois
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with SoFi's Liz Young and BofA's Marci McGregorLiz Young, SoFi and Marci McGregor, Merrill and BofA private bank, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss their expectations for the continuation of the market rally and their broader market outlook.
Persons: SoFi's Liz Young, BofA's Marci McGregor Liz Young, SoFi, Marci McGregor, Merrill
In today's big story, we're looking at the reshuffling of top executives at two of the biggest US banks . Viswas Raghavan, JPMorgan's top dealmaker, has joined Citi as its head of banking and executive vice chair, reporting directly to CEO Jane Fraser. The move is a big deal, but even more shocking since Raghavan was just promoted to be the sole head of JPMorgan's deals business. Since high interest rates aren't stopping stocks from reaching record highs, cuts might not come at all this year , according to analyst Jim Bianco. Market vet Ed Yardeni said interest rates are actually in a sweet spot for stocks, similar to the late '90s.
Persons: Viswas Raghavan, Jane Fraser, Raghavan, Filippo Gori, Doug Petno, Insider's Reed Alexander, Patrick T, Fallon, Fraser, Merrill Lynch, Andy Sieg, Warren Buffett, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway's, Jim Bianco, Ed Yardeni, Gemini, Demis Hassabis, Long, Alyssa Powell, they've, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Citi, JPMorgan, Warren, Warren Buffett REUTERS, Chip, Berkshire, Buffett, Research, Wall, BI, Google, eBay Locations: Bronx, Gori, Rivian, New York, London
Read previewWall Street experienced a big shakeup on Monday when two big banks announced new leaders for their investment-banking units. Citi's hire comes just weeks after JPMorgan promoted Raghavan to the sole head of its deals business, forcing America's biggest bank by assets to regroup. Under Raghavan, JPMorgan rose to No. For the last decade, the 59-year-old has been CEO of the bank's commercial bank, dedicated to corporate lending, including to Silicon Valley startups and real-estate investors. In an internal memo announcing his new role, bank executives said he's "significantly" grown revenue in the region since he took over the region in 2019.
Persons: , Viswas Raghavan, Raghavan, Jamie Dimon, Filippo Gori, Doug Petno, Filippo Gori —, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Merrill Lynch, Andy Sieg, Patrick T, Fallon, Raghavan Raghavan, Doug Petno Petno, Jennifer Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Piepszak, Marianne Lake, Rohrbaugh, he's, He'll, Sjoerd Leenart, Mary Erdoes, Reed Alexander Organizations: Service, Citigroup, America's, Business, JPMorgan, Citi, Financial Times, Banking & International, Citi Foundation, EMEA, Financial News, JPMorgan's, Corporate Banking Locations: Hong Kong, London, Europe, Africa, Fraser, EMEA, Silicon, Filippo Gori Gori, JPMorgan's Asia, Pacific
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
‘Greatest product placement’"The Love Boat" centered around the adventures of the crew and passenger on board a luxury cruise ship. “‘The Love Boat’ really created the cruise industry,” Michael L. Grace, who worked as a scriptwriter on the program during the 1980s, told CNN Travel in 2022. During the 1980s, almost 40 new cruise ships were constructed, including Tropicale, from Carnival Cruise Lines and Royal Princess, Princess Cruises’ first purpose-built cruise ship. Princess Cruises“The Love Boat” may also have played a part in the heavy entertainment focus we see on modern-day cruise ships. Outlandish musical performances were often featured on “The Love Boat,” and they proved to be a big hit with viewers.
Persons: we’re, Aaron Spelling, Princess Cruise, Jeraldine Saunders, , Merrill Stubing, Gavin MacLeod, ” Michael L, Grace, Princess, Caribbean's, , Carolyn Spencer Brown, Captain Stubing, Adam Bricker, Bernie Kopell, Julie McCoy, Lauren Tewes, Isaac Washington, Ted Lange, Vicki, Jill Whelan, ” Grace, Everett, Peter Knego, Spencer Brown, Dittrich, Keen, Cruises ’, Princess “, Cruises, Della Reese, Ethel Merman, Carol Channing, Ann Miller, Judi Patterson, Andy, Oriana, Patterson, Greer Garson, Howard Duff, Jill Whelan –, Princess Cruises – Bernie Kopell, Fred Grandy, Ezra Freeman, he’s, ” MacLeod, Joe Raedle, Caribbean’s, Isaac, Ted Lange's, Bret Hartman, Knego, ” Spencer Brown, ” Whelan, Cruise Organizations: CNN, Paramount Plus, Princess Cruises, Princess, Everett, CNN Travel, Cruise Media, Cruises, Carnival Cruise Lines, Entertainment, CBS, Knego, , Disney Cruise, world’s, Princess Cruises Pacific Locations: Mexico, Royal Caribbean, India, New York, Canada, New England
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewFrom Michael Burry's "Big Short" against the housing market to Warren Buffett's warnings during the dot-com bubble, some of the biggest names in finance have taken contrarian stances that paid off. Legendary forecaster Gary Shilling is also defying market consensus by warning the S&P 500 could crash 30%, and predicting a recession will strike this year. He told Business Insider in an interview he actively seeks to disagree with Wall Street for several reasons. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , Michael Burry's, Warren Buffett's, Gary Shilling, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, John Paulson, doesn't, Copernicus, David Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Newton
Democrats Suffer a Comey Flashback
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Adam Nagourney | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
For veterans of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign for president, yesterday brought back painful memories. The special counsel’s report on the handling of classified documents by President Biden instantly recalled how James Comey, then the F.B.I. director, concluded his investigation of Clinton for her handling of classified documents when she was secretary of state. Robert Hur, the special prosecutor in Biden’s case, cleared him of criminal wrongdoing in his handling of classified documents while he was vice president. In 2016, Comey likewise recommended that no criminal charges be filed against Clinton for using her private email server to handle official correspondence as secretary of state.
Persons: Hillary Clinton’s, Biden, James Comey, Clinton, , ’ ”, Nick Merrill, Robert Hur, Comey
CHICAGO (AP) — A group of voters trying to remove former President Donald Trump's name from Illinois' primary ballot over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol has taken its fight to court after the state's election board unanimously rejected its effort. The expected legal challenge was filed in Cook Court's circuit court Tuesday, hours after the bipartisan Illinois State Board of Elections voted to keep the Republican on the March 19 ballot. The five voters argue Trump is ineligible to hold office because he encouraged and did little to stop the Capitol riot. The Illinois voters, along with national voting advocacy group Free Speech for People, argued in their court petition for judicial review that the elections board has the authority to determine Trump's eligibility. Trump attorney Adam Merrill told reporters Tuesday he was pleased with the election board's decision and prepared to respond to any court action.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, , Adam Merrill Organizations: CHICAGO, U.S . Capitol, Cook, Illinois State, Republican, Trump, U.S, Supreme, Illinois, People Locations: Illinois, Cook Court's, Colorado
On Monday, Alphabet closed at a market capitalization of $1.91 trillion, less than $100 billion away from a $2 trillion market cap and trailing Microsoft and Apple with market capitalizations last at $3.03 trillion and $2.91 trillion, respectively. Beyond Alphabet Alphabet is close to entering the $2 trillion club, but other prominent mega-cap tech companies are making progress, too. Amazon's market cap finished Monday at $1.64 trillion. The managing partner also sees Meta Platforms as a future $2 trillion market cap candidate. The maker of sophisticated graphics processing units reached a $1 trillion market cap for the first time only in 2023, when it climbed almost 240%.
Persons: Paul Meeks, Meeks, Merrill Lynch, bode, Gene Munster, Dan Ives, Ives, they're, Deepwater's Munster, Wedbush's Ives, Jensen Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Merrill, Merrill Lynch Investment, Deepwater Asset Management, Amazon Web Services, Munster, Nvidia Locations: U.S
The panel voted 8-0 on a bipartisan basis to dismiss the challenge, finding that it didn’t have jurisdiction to adjudicate a dispute involving the 14th Amendment. He said state courts – which have more power than the election board – should decide Trump’s eligibility. Trump attorney Adam Merrill, however, urged the state board to keep Trump on the 2024 ballot, pushing back against the findings from Erickson. This includes Missouri’s secretary of state and Texas’ lieutenant governor, though they weren’t involved in the Illinois case. CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correct the vote tally by the Illinois State Board of Elections.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, , Judge Clark Erickson, Erickson, Trump, Catherine McCrory, ” McCrory, ” Matthew Piers, ” Piers, Adam Merrill, “ Mr, ” Merrill, , can’t, Biden, Joe Biden, rebuffing, Biden “, Marni Malowitz, ” David Herman, ” Herman Organizations: Washington CNN, Illinois State, Trump, Capitol, Republican, United States Congress, Illinois, Citizens, GOP, Biden, United, Constitution Locations: Illinois, Colorado, Maine, Michigan , Minnesota, United States, Mexico, Texas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall and mid cap stocks are on our watch list, says Merrill & BofA's Chris HyzyChris Hyzy, Merrill & Bank of America Private Bank CIO, joins 'Closing Bell' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Merrill, Chris Hyzy Chris Hyzy Organizations: Merrill & Bank of America Private Bank CIO
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey’s central bank raised its key interest rate by another 2.5 percentage points on Thursday, pressing ahead with a series of hikes aimed at combating inflation that reached nearly 65% in December. Erdogan is a longtime proponent of an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to fight inflation, which runs contrary to mainstream economic thinking. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its record-high benchmark rate steady at its meeting Thursday, following a rapid series of hikes over more than a year. Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former U.S.-based bank executive, took over as central bank governor in June, becoming the first woman to hold that position in Turkey. Previously, Erdogan had fired central governments who reportedly resisted his push to cut interest rates.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Merrill Lynch, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Organizations: European Central Bank, Turkish Locations: ANKARA, Turkey, Ukraine, U.S
Hong Kong CNN —Riot Games, the developer of hit video games like “League of Legends” and “Valorant,” is cutting 11% of staff around the world, becoming the latest tech company to downsize. In the first two weeks of 2024 alone, more than 5,500 layoffs were announced at Google, Amazon and other prominent tech employers. Riot relied on the game’s massive success for about a decade, leading to calls for the company to diversify its business. On Tuesday, China’s gaming regulator made headlines by removing draft rules from its website that had aimed to rein in spending in online video games. Shares of Tencent and Chinese rival NetEase each rose 4.6% and 6.5% in Hong Kong, respectively, on Tuesday following the news.
Persons: , hadn’t, Dylan Jadeja, Twitch, , Marc Merrill, Jadeja, ” Tencent Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Riot, , Google, Amazon, Tencent, CNN, “ League, National Press, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Shenzhen, China, we’re
Microsoft earnings due out later this month could serve as the next major test for artificial intelligence as investors hunt for signs that the buzzy technological innovation is actually boosting companies' bottom lines. Nvidia has been an exception, blowing past Wall Street's guidance for the past few quarters due to AI tailwinds . The remarks led some Wall Street analysts to fret over a delayed ramp-up in AI availability. "There are going to be some outliers, but for the most part there is more risk-reward related to AI going into this earnings period." More loosely, Wall Street analysts have expressed concerns about AI monetization and expectations across the sector heading into the fourth-quarter reporting period.
Persons: Paul Meeks, Merrill Lynch, Piper Sandler, OpenAI, Amy Hood, Copilot, Micrsoft, Meeks, Amy Kong, Nancy Tengler, Gene Munster, Corient's Kong, Wolfe, Alex Zukin, Dubravko, Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Merrill, Merrill Lynch Investment, Nvidia, Wall, Baker School of Business, The, Investments, Asset Management, Munster, Wall Street, Tech Locations: OpenAI, hasn't
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