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HONG KONG, Dec 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - America’s chip war against China will make only partial inroads in 2023. After unveiling sweeping new export restrictions in October, Washington appears to have successfully lobbied friendly governments including Japan and the Netherlands to join. Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher already said in November her government "will not copy the American measures one-to-one". Rival Nikon (7731.T) made sales of over 153 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in China, some 28% of total. In November, Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher confirmed the Netherlands was in talks with the U.S. government about new export restrictions.

HONG KONG, Nov 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Protests across China underscore a rising fear among people that President Xi Jinping’s stringent pandemic restrictions may be here to stay. Still, new daily cases hit over 40,000 on Nov. 27. Cities accounting for 65% of the country's GDP are under some sort of lockdown as of Friday, per Goldman Sachs analysts. Any end to the near-daily mandatory Covid tests and strict quarantine rules will be bumpy due to a huge unvaccinated population. As of November, about 27 million citizens aged 60 and above have not been jabbed against Covid, Breakingviews calculated from official data, and another 36 million elderly people have yet to receive their second dose.

☆ China’s U.S. audit capitulation is rare win-win
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NISEKO, Japan, Dec 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The history of Sino-American diplomatic relations is not replete with unequivocal U.S. negotiating victories. State-owned giants including oil refiner Sinopec (600028.SS) voluntarily decamped while its peer CNOOC (0883.HK) was booted off on a separate government order. Their departure helped erase over half a trillion dollars from the collective value of Chinese companies there between June and September. Scandals overseas do not help: many Chinese investors, for instance, had stakes in Luckin. For their part, Chinese regulators tightened cybersecurity reviews of companies listing abroad, alleviating the concerns of officials who suspect American intentions.

A combination of targeted subsidies and local demand will help. China's dependence on foreign suppliers for lithography machines, used to print patterns onto silicon wafers, light-resistant wafer coatings known as photoresists and other vital tools cannot be understated. A 2021 report found that Chinese chipmakers buy less than a fifth of their equipment by value from local suppliers and that the country has localised less than 8% of annual equipment demand. China's equipment specialists, such as little-known firms NAURA Technology Group (002371.SZ) and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (688012.SS), are probably too small to effectively absorb massive amounts of government funding anyway. The majority of the funds will be used to subsidise the purchase of domestic semiconductor equipment by Chinese chipmakers.

The Chinese pharmaceutical giant may revive a buyout of its 32%-owned traditional medicine arm listed in Hong Kong. The state-backed group's latest bid for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (0570.HK) looks generous. China TCM's woes are a stark contrast to mainland-listed rivals, including some with heavy exposure to drugs presented as fixes to Covid-19. Assuming some of that enthusiasm can rub off on China TCM, that makes Sinopharm's latest offer look like a steal. Follow @mak_robyn on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSSinopharm is considering reviving a bid for China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 7, citing people familiar with the matter.

☆ Merck could keep its patent edge by shifting Keytruda cancer drug to a simple shot
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Michael Erman | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

If successful, Merck could begin marketing the new formulation within a few years, a top Merck executive told Reuters. "The clock for that patent would start ticking from the time we would get that patent approved." Drug patents have a guaranteed term of exclusivity for 20 years after receiving a patent under U.S. law, but sometimes the companies are able to add additional patents that extend their exclusivity. Merck's patents on the subcutaneous version of Keytruda could protect that formulation until at least 2040, according to Tahir Amin, co-founder of drug patents watchdog group Initiative for Medicines, Access & Knowledge (I-MAK). Northwell's Mulloy said moving patients to subcutaneous versions of drugs also opens up spots in infusion centers for additional patients.

HONG KONG, Dec 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Covid-19 lockdowns and protests across China have highlighted the risks of the mutual dependence between Taiwan's Foxconn and its top customer Apple (AAPL.O). It makes 70% of the world’s iPhones, according to Fubon Research. Meanwhile Apple’s huge investments into Foxconn have paid off: the U.S. company is the most profitable smartphone maker by far. Foxconn has been scrambling to contain the fallout, offering bonuses to temporary workers and shifting production to other facilities. At the time, Foxconn said it was bringing the situation under control and was coordinating with other plants to increase production.

☆ China decoupling takes one step forward, one back
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

It has pushed for reshoring production of electric vehicles and silicon chips, and legislated to delist Chinese companies from New York. Europe, Japan, Australia and India have implemented their own measures ranging from restrictions on Chinese investment, excluding equipment from telecoms networks, and banning consumer apps. The impact the pandemic has had on Chinese supply chains has retroactively validated the push to separate. For politicians who hope to replicate the Chinese supply chain via tax tweaks, subsidies and sanctions, it’s worth remembering China started building out the requisite logistical infrastructure in the 1980s. Non-financial outbound direct investment in the same 10-month period rose 10.3% year-on-year to 627.4 billion yuan, Shu said.

HONG KONG, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman is taking another tilt at the Hong Kong dollar , betting the government will be forced to break its link to the greenback. His logic is stronger today than when he took the plunge in 2011 but it’s up to Beijing, not Hong Kong. Back then Ackman famously predicted that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would allow the local currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. A secular decline in Hong Kong might ultimately sabotage the peg at some point. On the other hand, Hong Kong is a city, not a country.

HONG KONG, Nov 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A Hong Kong stock market debut puts Jakarta at the centre of China’s electric-car boom. Lygend Resources & Technology (2245.HK), a Chinese nickel trader, is looking to raise up to $594 million in an initial public offering to expand in Indonesia. Lygend both trades and produces nickel products, essential for stainless steel and batteries. Around a fifth of the world’s nickel resources are located in the country, which accounted for nearly 40% of ore unearthed last year, according to the company’s prospectus. Hong Kong CATL is the largest cornerstone investor, according to the prospectus.

☆ China reopening hope puts wind in Alibaba sails
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Just ask China's $220 billion e-commerce giant Alibaba (9988.HK), whose New York stock has rallied by a third this month despite tepid performance from its annual Singles Day shopping festival and so-so quarterly results. Revenue from the domestic commerce unit, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Alibaba's top line, fell 1% year-on-year, to $19 billion. Boss Daniel Zhang's cost cuts are paying off, though: the overall adjusted EBITDA margin improved three percentage points to 21%. Zhang's messaging on China's gradual reopening probably resonated with investors more. Shares of Alibaba, rivals JD.com (9618.HK) and Pinduoduo (PDD.O) and other Chinese stocks jumped, too.

☆ BHP’s shinier $6 bln OZ bid stays within reality
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Nov 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - BHP (BHP.AX) boss Mike Henry’s apparent nonchalance about buying OZ Minerals (OZL.AX) always smacked of play-acting. No sooner had the metals miner rejected its larger rival’s A$8.3 billion ($5.8 billion) all-cash overture in August than Henry was fobbing it off as a “nice-to-have, not a must-have” business. Yet on Friday, the target disclosed BHP recently upped its offer 13%, and says it will agree in principle to the revised bid. Henry is now dangling a 49% premium to OZ’s undisturbed share price. Cutting around a third of OZ’s annual expenses would, taxed and capitalised, cover the A$3.1 billion premium.

HONG KONG, Nov 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Naspers (NPNJn.J) has a new Tencent (0700.HK) quandary. In June, they launched an open-ended plan to gradually sell Tencent shares and use the proceeds to repurchase stock in both companies. The problem, however, is that Tencent stock has underperformed that of Naspers and Prosus. Over the same period Naspers shares rose 6% while those of its Dutch subsidiary are down 19%. “The Naspers Board and Prosus Board reiterate their continued confidence in Tencent's long term prospects and continue to believe that the share repurchase programme is in the best interests of Prosus, Naspers and their respective shareholders," they said in a statement.

☆ China’s property easing is minor capitulation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, Nov 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has rolled out more measures to support its flagging real estate sector, including extending repayment periods, facilitating financing for developers and lowering mortgage down-payments. Real estate, contributing roughly a quarter of China’s $17 trillion of output, is a speculative monster that has cannibalised capital better used for other endeavours. Together with other easing steps announced since March, UBS estimates the new policies could contribute more than 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) in fresh financing to the struggling industry. But if property must correct in the name of rebalancing, that makes boosting the rest of the economy more urgent. Measures include allowing real estate firms to defer repayment on some loans, and trust lenders are instructed to help finance companies seeking to complete rental housing construction or acquire other companies.

☆ Alibaba's Singles Day enters healthier phase
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Nov 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There were no fireworks from Alibaba’s (9988.HK) Singles Day this year, and that's just fine. The biggest omission this year is Alibaba's final sales tally, or gross merchandise value. Singles Day was created in 2009 to win over online shoppers with discounts and promotions; these days, brands use it to clear inventory and experiment with new products. It has become far less important to Alibaba’s bottom line. Alibaba could use more boring Singles Days.

☆ Tiny crack opens in China’s zero-Covid wall
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Nov 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing announced minor relaxations of its pandemic policy on Friday, including shorter quarantine periods and more narrowly targeted lockdowns. Rumours of relaxations surfaced earlier this month, so the latest announcement lends credence to arguments that President Xi Jinping will return to economic pragmatism. Pressure to revive domestic consumption is becoming acute after the critical export sector suddenly contracted in October. If Beijing can convince sceptical retirees to get the jab, China might avoid a surge of nursing home deaths as observed in Hong Kong. To be sure, none of these marginal measures will do much to revive consumption, production or property investment.

☆ Japan lives at the bleeding edge of good enough
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says he will put innovation and scientific research at the “centre” of his policy push. That has meant pushing the $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund to get involved funding startups while removing policy bottlenecks. In the United States nearly a third of venture capital came from pensions whereas in Japan it is only 3%, according to a Nikkei report. However, the blunting of Japan is due more to its failure to deploy existing tools and best practices than invent new ones. Investing in the future makes for riveting speeches, but Japan Inc will get more from reinventing itself than inventing new things.

☆ China’s foreign customers leave at worst time
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Off balance: China's trade balance has been risingThe outperformance of China’s export sector throughout the Covid-19 pandemic is a testimonial to the strength of its supply chain. Despite U.S. tariffs and darkening relations with Western trading partners, foreign consumers kept buying Chinese goods. In March 2021 China’s share of world exports touched nearly 16%, a level not enjoyed by any country since the United States in the 1970s. Before Covid-19 emerged, some economists had argued the government should redirect policy support away from exports toward domestic consumption and services. With consumption and investment weak, and exports flagging, government spending, the remaining GDP component, becomes even more important.

HONG KONG, Nov 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s third-quarter GDP plunged 4.5% from a year earlier as consumers and companies slashed spending. The government is trying to rally enthusiasm for its finance sector - as signaled by the flagship Fintech Week and Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit events happening this week. Beijing's commitment to stamping out Covid-19 infections on the mainland has halted vital flows of tourists and business people to Hong Kong. Moreover, Hong Kong's currency peg to the U.S. dollar means it must follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hikes even though its inflation rate is less than half that in the United States. "Looking ahead, the markedly deteriorating external environment will continue to pose immense pressure on Hong Kong's export performance in the remainder of the year," the city government said.

☆ Toyota’s new, new EV plan suggests smarter driving
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Toyota Motor (7203.T) may be driving towards its third electric-car reboot in just 13 months as it tries to catch up with Tesla (TSLA.O), Reuters exclusively reported on Monday. But the $218 billion Japanese carmaker’s latest overhaul suggests it’s getting serious about addressing missteps with more speed. Electric-vehicle sales, especially in the past two years, have put the lie to that belief; growth has easily outpaced that of Toyota’s hybrids. The plan would involve slowing down the rollout of electric vehicles already in development so that Toyota could devise a more efficient manufacturing process. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Robyn Mak and Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Casinos reap unexpected rewards in Singapore
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Oct 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Las Vegas Sands’(LVS.N) main Macau operations are ailing as China doubles down on zero-Covid. Yet Sands’ New York shares rose nearly 6% on Thursday after results revealed it is having better luck in Singapore. The Lion City now accounts for three quarters of Sands’ top line, up from 22% in 2019. By contrast, in Macau, formerly the world’s largest gaming hub, Sands suffered a loss of $152 million, as gaming revenue sunk to around 10% of 2019 levels. Singapore’s resurgence is surprising, given volumes at Changi airport were still only around half 2019 levels in July and August.

☆ Aussies put net-zero nationalisation on the map
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MELBOURNE, Oct 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Nationalisation and capitalism are supposed to be like chalk and cheese. He also accused privately run energy generators of reaping huge profits “at our collective expense” without helping to achieve net-zero goals. If done right — and the details will be key — other governments facing similar net-zero challenges can take note. His plan involves restoring the State Electricity Commission to build new renewable energy projects. The SEC has not been involved in building energy projects since 1993 when the state’s energy assets were privatised.

☆ Water risk powers fear-then-greed coal trade
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Shareholders have found a distressing silver lining to the floods that have been pounding eastern Australia. Investors immediately sent stock in both the company and rival New Hope (NHC.AX) sinking 6% or more. Such indifference to water risk in the energy sector is common, with scarcity causing problems with hydropower, and few paying attention to green hydrogen’s H2O needs. While good news for miners, it’s yet more bad news for a world in the middle of an energy crisis. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

HONG KONG, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Solving Hong Kong's brain drain problem need not be complicated. Leader John Lee hopes lower property taxes and a new visa scheme will persuade foreign talent not to move to destinations like Singapore. As a result, Hong Kong's mid-year population dipped 1.6% to 7.29 million - the steepest year-on-year drop on record. Non-residents are also eligible to apply for a refund of the extra stamp duty paid for buying property in Hong Kong once they become a permanent resident. Lee may be ignoring them, but the main policy solutions are staring him in the face.

HONG KONG, Oct 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The world is facing a difficult 2023 as growth slows in most developed economies. The world economy will expand by 2.7% in 2023, per the IMF. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterChina’s contribution to global growth will be more than three times greater than the United States. The South Asian nation produces roughly 3% of world GDP. Even if it expands by 6.1% as forecast, it will account for just 7.7% of global growth.

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