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Since the release of their last economic projections in March, the unemployment rate has fallen and inflation has largely moved sideways. She expects the Fed to keep its policy rate steady this month "while hinting at potential further hikes," a way to compromise among different views and keep pressure on financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others insist that sort of erratic path is not their base case. The intent, rather, is to reach a "sufficiently restrictive" policy rate and remain at that level until it is clear inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2% target. "I do think they are done" with rate increases, he said, but "I cannot rule out another hike in June."

Persons: they've, Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Larry Meyer, Ian Shepherdson, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Reuters Graphics Reuters, North, Fed, Consumer, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Labor Department, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Washington

☆ Mega-cap tech dominance in the S&P 500 is obscuring investor bets that the US may already be in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in S&P 500's big tech stocks is masking concerns among investors that the US is already in recession, BlackRock Investment Institute says. The US has logged back-to-back quarters of contraction in gross domestic income. The S&P 500 has tacked on about 9% this year. Last week, the government said gross domestic income declined 2.3% in the first quarter of 2023 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Its aggressive series of hikes last year contributed to driving the S&P 500 down more than 18% last year.

Persons: —, Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, US, Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fed Locations: BlackRock, Germany, Europe's, U.S

☆ The AI boom shakes up stocks, disrupts tech, and could be on the brink of its 'iPhone' moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over the last several months, I've turned to ChatGPT for research, book summaries, and even pasta recipes. It was only in March that Bank of America strategists declared that AI was on the brink of its "iPhone moment," and that it was about to change the world forever. In the stretches he's referring to, stocks appreciated 15% on average, and inflation's also declined, something that would be welcome news for the Fed right now. The giant's quarterly iPhone sales slowed last quarter, and shareholders may have to brace for another snag. Apple's "base business is stagnating and its high-margin apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins," Wood said.

☆ Britons face biggest tax rise since 1979, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Britons face the biggest tax-raising drive since the start of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher's term of office in the coming years as more people are pushed into paying the top rate of income tax, a leading think tank said on Tuesday. Britons pay income tax at a rate of 20% on income over 12,570 pounds ($15,865) a year and 40% on income over 50,270 pounds with a higher rate beyond that. Isaac Delestre, an IFS research economist, said inflation's recent surge was pushing up nominal earnings of many workers and dragging them into the higher tax rate bracket. The Conservative Party pledged not to increase income tax rates in its 2019 election manifesto. "A third of the expected record fall in household incomes this year is likely to be a result of this tax rise," the IFS said.

☆ Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins Jim Cramer fresh off of quarterly earnings beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins Jim Cramer fresh off of quarterly earnings beatKellogg CEO Steve Cahillane joins 'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer to discuss the companies quarterly earnings results, growth opportunities, and inflation's impact on sales and prices.

☆ Gold flirts with all-time highs as banking concerns deepen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold made another run toward record highs on Thursday as U.S. banking concerns accelerated a flight to the safe-haven asset and sustained its stellar rally driven by bets for a pause in U.S. rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,045.79 per ounce after climbing earlier to $2,072.19, shy of a record high of $2,072.49. The Fed Funds target rate stands in the 5%-5.25% range, with markets expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year. In physical markets, lofty prices have tarnished gold demand in top Asian retail hubs.

☆ A $1.1 trillion investment chief shares her 3-part checklist for confirming a recession has started — and details 4 stocks she expects to outperform no matter what
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( James Faris | Akin Oyedele | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Nuveen investment chief Saira Malik is still forecasting a recession in the next year. Malik also shares four top stocks investors can buy to set themselves up for long-term success. "The consumer — which I would have said was holding up very well — I'm worried about tighter banking conditions, tighter banking credit on the consumer," Malik said. Additionally, the labor market is now showing cracks, even though the unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.5%. 4 stocks set to outperform in a downturnDespite her concerns about the economy, Malik doesn't see a massive market sell-off coming.

☆ An investment chief who manages $1 billion in assets shares 10 investments that will reduce your portfolio's volatility while this bear market lasts longer than expected.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are 10 ways to protect against losses and volatility in this long-lasting bear market. "It went beyond dodging a bullet," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said of first quarter earnings results in a late April interview with Insider. Weaker earnings raise valuation concernsBut some investors aren't impressed by Q1 earnings — at least not enough to get bullish. Besides weaker earnings growth and lofty valuations, another risk for stocks is that upcoming quarterly results will miss higher expectations in a shaky economy. "We're still looking at fairly high-single-digit earnings growth for the next couple of quarters overall," Sosnick said.

☆ 5 executives at an elite investing conference shared their views on the Fed's master plan for interest rates — and the consensus was that markets are unprepared for the pain in store
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | Akin Oyedele | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But executives at this week's Milken Institute Global Conference warn that may not be the case, and that markets are ill-prepared for rates to stay higher for longer. Here's the Fed's March meeting dot-plot, which shows where members of the Federal Open Market Committee see rates at the end of 2023. While markets are pricing in a pause in June at 5-5.25%, here's where they believe rates will most likely be in December: 4.25-4.5%. Below, we've compiled what five of them said on Monday about their expectations for Fed policy and financial markets. And as our chief economist likes to say, at higher rates, bodies will continue to float to the top over the course of the summer."

☆ US stocks rise as investors cheer strong corporate earnings and shake off banking fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose on Friday, boosted by a streak of strong earnings reports. 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beated estimates, according to FactSet. Investors digested fresh bank weakness amid reports that First Republic is headed for FDIC receivership. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% over the past quarter, a sign that inflation's presence is still being felt in the economy.

That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.

The PMI was driven by the services sector as consumer spending on travel, leisure and entertainment showed strength while manufacturing remained weak. S&P Global's input price index - a good guide to future inflation pressures - showed the slowest growth in costs for firms since March 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards. There were also signs of recovery in Friday's consumer confidence survey by polling firm GfK which rose to its highest since February last year, albeit to weak levels. There was a reminder of the problems facing many consumers in official retail sales data also published on Friday. "A strong performance from retailers in January and February means the three-month picture shows positive growth for the first time since August 2021," he said.

☆ Workers in the US now want at least $76,000 to start a new job as minimum wage expectations continue to rise in a red-hot job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Employees' wage expectations have risen to $76,000 a year, according to a New York Fed survey. The rise in expected salary levels comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. Those with a college degree raised their reservation wage expectations by about $5,000 to over $97,000. The rise in expected salary levels makes sense, as it comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. This, in turn, leads to employees upping their salary expectations to combat inflation's erosive effects.

☆ America's richest banker quadrupled his firm's assets last year by making a massive bet that inflation would spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

His firm's assets shot up from $7.5 billion to $32.6 billion after making a big get on inflation, MarketWatch reported. According to MarketWatch, Beal Bank's assets shot up from $7.5 billion in late 2021 to $32.6 billion by the end of 2022 after making a bet timing inflation's sudden spike. Beal Bank bought up $21.2 billion of Treasury bonds, MarketWatch wrote citing sources familiar and filings with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. As a result, Beal Bank's net income rose from $600 million to $1.48 billion over the course of a year. It isn't the first time Beal Bank has deftly navigated a volatile market.

☆ Fed's Bostic sees one more quarter-point rate hike, then a hold 'for quite some time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday he envisions the central bank approving one more interest rate increase before pausing to see how policy tightening is impacting the economy. That 0.25 percentage point increase likely will come at the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's May 2-3 meeting. "If the data come in as I expect, we will be able to hold there for quite some time," he said. Bostic said inflation is still running too strong to consider cuts. Bostic added that tight monetary policy is likely to persist despite the recent troubles in the banking industry that are forecast to trigger the recession.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation's cooling on two fronts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

March's producer price index confirmed inflation is cooling — and predicts consumer prices will drop further. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And March's consumer price index report, released Wednesday, already showed that price increases are slowing for consumers. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Inflation's inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers. Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. "This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges," Baxa said. FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ Bank of England raises interest rates again, sees inflation falling
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country's slow pace of economic growth, the BoE's nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%. "The MPC will continue to monitor closely any effect on the credit conditions faced by households and businesses, and hence the impact on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook," it said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its main interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. However, it said it expected wages to rise slightly less than it had previously forecast, as inflation expectations fell. The BoE was the first major central bank to start raising rates in December 2021 and until this week had seemed likely to join the Bank of Canada which this month stopped raising borrowing costs.

☆ US stocks slip ahead of Fed's decision on interest rates following bank crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks slipped Wednesday before the Federal Reserve's March rate decision. The Fed's decision is the first since SVB's collapse set off distress in regional banks. The policy decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. Cathie Wood says the Fed's rate hikes hit Ark's strategy like an 'earthquake' as the fund logs a $2 billion loss. Top economist David Rosenberg said the Fed should put bigger rate hikes back on the table after bouts of 'speculative lunacy'.

☆ Eggs and bacon are finally getting cheaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The cost of eggs is finally falling, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation cooled down overall, and egg prices fell 6.7% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday. The price of bacon also decreased by 1.5%, and even cheese and orange juice experienced modest declines in cost. Inflation impacted the cost of eggs as the avian flu began to spread in earnest last February. The egg news is welcome, especially as food prices increased slightly overall, by about 0.4% compared to January's 0.5% increase.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael SchumacherMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move, inflation's impact on the economy and markets.

☆ MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti says we're still headed for a garden-style recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti says we're still headed for a garden-style recessionMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move, inflation's impact on the economy and markets.

☆ A reading of more than 200,000 jobs added in February would be the Fed's trigger for a big March rate hike, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will likely upsize its March rate hike if the February jobs report shows 200,00 or more jobs added, Barclays said. Investors on Tuesday quickly pushed up the odds the Fed deliver a rate hike of a half-percentage point after downsizing the pace to 25 basis points last month. The February jobs report due Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy added 203,000 jobs, with a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. The January jobs report trounced expectations with growth of 517,000 jobs. Such moves would put the peak of the Fed's benchmark interest rate at 5.5%-5.75% assuming that after June, the Fed sees sufficient evidence that slowing in employment and wages warrant a pause in rate hikes, Barclays said.

☆ Inflation's direction will drive crypto's action in March now that the 2023 rally has faded
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bitcoin and ether are starting the new trading month on a positive note – following a relatively flat month – each rising less than 1% Wednesday. In the near term, our bet is on the dollar pulling back," he said Wednesday. If we're right and more upside lies ahead in the near term, it's tough to think crypto isn't a major beneficiary." Long-term investors see regulation as a positive development ultimately, but it can put pressure on prices in the near term, Kruger said. Breaking past $25,000 Although bitcoin held up in February, investors are unsure when to expect a rocket ship rally .

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