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☆ Run on Silicon Valley Bank injects some panic into an already slumping stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The charts suggest that breaking the December low in the S & P 500 around 3765 – down just 2.5% from here – would lose the bullish case a lot more credibility than has been surrendered so far. Of course, fears of contagion can outrun the facts and sometimes can become self-fulfilling, but the S & P 500 has (for now) simply backslid to a nine-week low. Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, had been expecting "a weakening corporate earnings environment would eventually take the narrative away from the Fed driven rates market. In the past week Apple shares lost about a third of what the S & P 500 did. Inflation has been at generational highs for two years as it was not then, and the labor market wasn't nearly as tight.

As of Jan. 31, money managers held a net long of 219,924 CBOT corn futures and options contracts, a net long of 175,504 contracts in CBOT soybeans, a net long of 140,943 contracts in CBOT soymeal, a net long of 31,224 contracts in CBOT soyoil, and a net short of 63,628 contracts in CBOT wheat. That included 18,127 contracts of corn, soybeans 29,242 contracts, soymeal 5,440 contracts and CBOT wheat 10,305 contracts. Funds’ Jan. 31 net long in corn was the highest since November, and their net short in CBOT wheat as of Jan. 24 had been the strongest since May 2019. Daily fund estimates collected by Reuters suggest that between Feb. 1 and Feb. 24, commodity funds were net sellers of 26,500 CBOT corn futures and 34,500 CBOT wheat futures. Money managers have not been net sellers of more than 25,000 CBOT wheat futures and options combined over a four-week span since late 2021.

☆ Treasury yields little changed as investors assess Fed minutes, data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was fractionally lower at 3.8751%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was little changed at 3.8784%. U.S. Treasury yields were flat on Friday morning as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and awaited key inflation and consumer data. They also noted that further interest rate hikes are likely, prompting a fall in yields on Thursday as investors sought safety. January's personal income and consumer spending figures are due before the bell, with a Dow Jones consensus forecast anticipating a 1.2% rise in personal income and 1.4% increase in consumer spending. The personal consumption expenditures price index, also due Friday morning, is the Fed's preferred measurement of inflation.

Asia Pacific markets are set to open mixed on Friday as investors await key U.S. economic data, as well as developments in Japan. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 's opened fractionally lower, while Japanese markets are set to trade higher. Japan's consumer price index is expected to come in on Friday, with economists forecasting a CPI figure of 4.2%. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia is expected to see its CPI numbers for January released in the afternoon. Singapore will also await its January manufacturing output figures, expected to come in at 2.9% on an annualized basis.

☆ UK economy in 'a lot better shape' than bleak figures suggest, fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The U.K. has thus far avoided a widely anticipated recession, and the signs from the business world are that the economy may be holding up better than feared, according to veteran Schroders fund manager Andy Brough. Figures published earlier this month showed that the U.K. GDP contracted by 0.5% in December, as the economy flatlined over the final quarter of 2022 to narrowly avoid a technical recession. "Underneath companies' profitability x-minus today, we're seeing pretty good dividend increases, pretty good earnings statements, so, underlying, I think the economy is in a lot better shape. 'Signs of life' in business investment Uncertainty over future relations between Westminster and Brussels have hammered business investment since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in 2016, in turn hampering productivity expansion and adding to the direct costs of Brexit on the U.K. potential growth.

☆ Global debt sees first annual drop since 2015 - IIF
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Institute of International Finance report published on Wednesday estimated that the nominal value of global debt declined by some $4 trillion, bringing it fractionally back under the $300 trillion threshold breached in 2021. Stronger economic activity and higher inflation meanwhile, both of which erode debt levels, saw the global debt-to-GDP ratio drop over 12 percentage points to 338% of GDP, marking the second annual drop in a row. Again, though, the improvement was driven by developed markets which saw an overall 20 percentage points fall to 390%. The emerging market debt ratio rose by 2 percentage points meanwhile to 250% of GDP, largely driven by China and Singapore. the IIF said, adding that it had pushed international investor demand for local currency EM debt to multi-year lows, "with no sign of imminent recovery".

View of the Yarra River flowing through Melbourne city centre in Australia. Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall on Tuesday as investors await regional private surveys for factory activity. The PMI index encompasses services and manufacturing, and is seen as a reliable gauge of economic health. Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its February policy meeting, when it hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.35%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.16% and the Topix was marginally lower ahead of the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI.

☆ Asia markets set to trade mixed ahead of economic data releases in week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Asia-Pacific markets are set to trade mixed on Monday, as investors look ahead to crucial economic data releases later in the week. Minutes for the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is slated to be released Wednesday. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 opened fractionally lower as minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to be released Tuesday. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 27,480 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 27,510 against the Nikkei 225's last close at 27,513,13.

Singapore will report the budget for the coming fiscal year on Tuesday, will probably reinforce longer-term investment priorities including digitalization, green energy transition, and health services for an ageing society. Photographer: Edwin Koo/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific shares are to trade higher as investors await the release of the U.S. consumer price index report, which will shape the Federal Reserve's path ahead. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.63% in its first hour of trade as investors anticipate the release of the country's consumer sentiment survey for February. Nikkei 225 futures in Chicago were fractionally up at 27,720, while its counterpart in Osaka stood at 27,700, higher than its last close at 27,427.32. The Japanese yen stood at 132.33 against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Japanese government's expected nomination of its next Bank of Japan governor.

☆ Maersk, a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The container ship Maersk Murcia sits moored in the port of Gothenburg, Sweden, on August 24, 2020. Maersk, one of the world's largest container shipping firms, on Wednesday reported a fall in fourth-quarter earnings but posted the best full-year result in its history. This took the full-year underlying EBITDA figure to $36.84 billion, fractionally below the company's forward guidance of $37 billion but its strongest-ever full-year result. Maersk raised its dividend to 4,300 Danish krone ($620.33) per share from 2,500 DKK per share. For 2023, Maersk expects underlying EBITDA to plummet to between $8 billion and $11 billion.

☆ Sell-off fizzles out ahead of Fed, ECB and BoE speeches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. Then comes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington during U.S. trading plus U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. DEADLY QUAKEAmong the main commodities, oil jumped for a second straight session driven by optimism about recovering demand in China, and after Monday's devastating earthquake in Turkey had shut down one of the region's major oil export terminals. "Equities have had a strong run since the start of the year so seeing an air pocket emerge now is no major surprise." Additional reporting by Scoot Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. Treasury bond yields rise — and stock markets fall — on January’s jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.485% after climbing more than 18 basis points. "Creative destruction" is the process by which existing practices are dismantled and replaced by new ones that increase productivity. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ U.S. Treasury bond yields rise — and stock markets fall — on January jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.485% after climbing more than 18 basis points. Chinese firm Baidu joined the bandwagon Tuesday and said its own AI chatbot, named Ernie, will complete internal testing in March. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Asia markets trade mixed after Wall Street's tech-fueled rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

NANJING, CHINA - JANUARY 31: People purchase lanterns at Nanjing Confucius Temple ahead of the Lantern Festival on January 31, 2023 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)Stocks in the Asia-Pacific were mixed on Friday after Wall Street's rally driven by technology stocks. The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.28% and the Topix fell 0.09%. In South Korea, the Kospi also fell 0.06% at the open while the Kosdaq rose fractionally. The au Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index for January is slated to be published, after four months of readings marking growth.

New gross longs were the primary reason for the move, as has been the case in most recent weeks when funds were net corn buyers. CBOT corn ended at $6.83 per bushel Friday, up 5% from the month’s low and stronger than the year-ago $6.36. Most active CBOT wheat futures fell more than 2% in the week ended Jan. 24, including a 16-month low of $7.12-1/2 on Jan. 23. Most-active CBOT wheat had traded between $4.16 and $4.37 per bushel in April 2017. Their net long fell to 135,503 CBOT soymeal futures and options contracts from the all-time high of 150,939 a week earlier.

Most-active CBOT corn futures had declined more than 2% through Jan. 10, and CBOT soybeans fell fractionally. Corn and soybean futures both rose about 3% from Wednesday through Friday. However, strength in corn and soy, along with much lighter-than-predicted Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks, allowed CBOT wheat to rise 1.6% in the last three sessions. The managed money net short in Minneapolis wheat futures and options decreased slightly through Jan. 10 to 2,704 contracts. wheat futures and optionsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

☆ European markets set to inch higher as investors monitor inflation, rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are set for a fractionally higher open on Friday after closing the previous session at their highest level since April 2022. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed Thursday's trading up 0.7% at 450.22 points, after a choppy session following the latest U.S. inflation print. The December consumer price index report was in line with economist expectations for a monthly dip of 0.1% but a 6.5% rise in consumer prices year over year, compared with a 0.1% monthly gain in November and an annual rise of 7.1%. Investors around the world are closely monitoring inflation data for clues to how long and how far monetary policy tightening from central banks will go. Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Friday, though Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped 1.25%, dragged down by a sharp decline for Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing as well as broad weakness in food and electronics stocks.

The ever-important U.S. corn crop may be most primed for a market miss due to an alarmingly low range of guesses. YIELDSAnalysts’ range on U.S. corn yield is a seven-year low and for soybeans it is at least a 13-year low. U.S. farmers did not have a banner corn crop primarily because of drought in western areas. The 2021 corn yield last January was unchanged from November, but otherwise the trade is looking for the smallest January move in corn yield in 14 years. Argentina’s corn crop is seen falling more than 5% to 52 million tonnes from 55 million in December.

☆ Asia-Pacific shares trade mixed as U.S. inflation data remains firmly in spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

SHANGHAI, CHINA - MARCH 01: Skyscrapers stand at the Pudong Lujiazui Financial District on March 1, 2022 in Shanghai, China. Asia-Pacific shares traded mixed as investors look ahead to the U.S. consumer price index report Thursday. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 traded up 1.03% in its first hour of trade. The Nikkei 225 dipped fractionally after reversing earlier gains, while the Topix climbed 0.19%. South Korea's Kospi traded flat, while the Kosdaq declined 0.19%.

☆ The UK recession will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists predict
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — The U.K. economic contraction of 2023 will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists expect, as a sharp fall in household living standards weighs on activity. This is set to be followed by a 0.9% expansion in 2024, the lender anticipates. This will be followed by a 1.8% expansion in 2024, Goldman figures suggest. Germany — the next worst performer among major economies after Russia and the U.K. — is expected to see a 0.6% contraction this year, then expand by 1.4% next year. Goldman's projections for the U.K. are below what it cites as a market consensus that sketches a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and a 1.1% expansion in 2024.

☆ Job openings hold strong despite rate hikes; manufacturing in contraction
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The JOLTS survey is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials for signs of labor market slack. The ISM Manufacturing Index for December came in at 48.4%, representing the percentage of companies showing expansion. On the jobs front, the JOLTS report showed a slight decrease in hiring and a bit of an increase in layoffs. The ISM report also showed that the labor market for the manufacturing sector is solid. The jobs index component of the reading rose 3 points to 51.4.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Tesla, Cal-Maine, Southwest and others
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Peter Schacknow | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) – Cal-Maine slid 4.9% in premarket trading after its quarterly earnings came in below Wall Street forecasts. General Electric (GE) – GE spin-off GE HealthCare Technologies will join the S&P 500 when it begins trading as a separate public company on Jan. 4. Vornado will replace logistics company RXO (RXO), which will move to the S&P SmallCap 600. GE HealthCare — trading on a when-issued basis — rose 1% in the premarket, while Vornado was marginally lower and RXO jumped 3.3%. Apple (AAPL) – Apple is up 1% in premarket trading after closing Wednesday at a 1-1/2 year low.

☆ European markets set for slightly lower open as caution abounds to end the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — European markets are set for a slightly lower open on Thursday as caution returns to global stocks, with investors assessing a number of likely headwinds in 2023. Britain's FTSE 100 is seen around 24 points lower at 7,473, Germany's DAX is expected to drop by around 38 points to 13,888 and France's CAC 40 is set to open around 19 points lower at 6,491. European markets look set to continue the weak sentiment in Asia-Pacific overnight, where markets followed Wall Street's losses as investors looked with trepidation to the year ahead. U.S. stock futures ticked slightly higher in early premarket trade on Thursday. Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world.

☆ European markets set for mixed open as investors assess 2023 headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON — European markets are set for a cautious open on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the various economic headwinds coming down the pike in 2023. Britain's FTSE 100 was closed for a public holiday on Tuesday and is set to reopen Wednesday. With three trading days left for the year, global stock markets have suffered a dismal 2022 as governments and central banks grappled with sky-high inflation arising from the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine and persistent Covid-19 restrictions in China. Shares in Asia-Pacific mostly fell overnight after further losses on Wall Street Tuesday, with U.S. stock markets on track for their worst year since 2008. Stock futures stateside inched fractionally higher in early premarket trade on Wednesday.

☆ Asia-Pacific markets mixed ahead of Bank of Japan's rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Markets in the Asia-Pacific were mixed ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to maintain its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance, according to a Reuters poll. Investors will be watching closely for any changes in language to its commitment to a 2% inflation target. The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to stand at 137.10 against the U.S. dollar. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia traded 0.66% lower in its first hour of trade.

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