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☆ Fed's Goolsbee sees 'golden path' to lower inflation without a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he's confident inflation can be tamed without a recession, even with additional interest rate increases likely. Speaking to CNBC following the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report, he said the ongoing job growth is part of the Fed's "golden path" toward restoring price stability without taking the economy. "That's the golden path, and I feel like we're on that golden path. Though Goolsbee said he is confident the that inflation is ebbing, he also sees more tightening as likely. "That is on the golden path where we get inflation down to something like our target and we do it without a recession."

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, nonfarm payrolls, Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Let's, Payrolls, haven't Organizations: Chicago Federal, CNBC, Federal Open Market

☆ Thousands rally across Australia in support of Indigenous reform
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, July 2 (Reuters) - Thousands rallied in Australia on Sunday to back a campaign to recognise the country's Indigenous people in the constitution ahead of a referendum later this year, after a recent dip in support for the change. Another attendee, Isabelle Smith, said in her opinion the referendum was the most important issue in Australia. "It’ll bring Australians together and I think voting 'Yes' is the most important thing that people can do," she said. Opponents, including some Indigenous people, have said the proposal lacks detail and will divide Australians. Indigenous Australians, who account for 3.8% of the population, face disadvantages including discrimination, poor health and education outcomes and high incarceration rates.

Persons: Anthony Albanese's, Jason Howard, Isabelle Smith, It’ll, Yes23, Rachel Perkins, Sam McKeith, James Redmayne, Jill Gralow, Simon Cameron, Moore, William Mallard Organizations: SYDNEY, Voice, Aboriginal, Torres Strait, Labor, Liberal, Australian, of Social, Sydney, Indigenous, ABC, Thomson Locations: Australia, Sydney

☆ Opinion | As a Rabbi, I’ve Had a Privileged View of the Human Condition
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( David Wolpe | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

I have had a privileged view of the human condition, and the essential place of religion on that hard road. Where else do people sing together week after week? I know the percentage of those who not only call themselves religious but also find themselves in religious communities declines each year. I have seen families receive meals for weeks, and in one case for years, after a loss. I have seen one child pick another up on the sports field and I have seen couples find their way back to one another after estrangements.

Persons: John Masefield, “

☆ Morning Bid: China supports, peak rate haze
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It made its displeasure at further yuan weakness clear on Tuesday, lifting official daily targets while state banks sold dollars. Even though investors seemed to bat away the bizarre weekend events in Russia, the murky Western interest rate picture continues to hamper European and U.S. stocks. Central bankers meeting at an annual European Central Bank forum in Portugal dissuaded markets from betting on a peak in the interest rate cycle just yet. While those comments are likely more directed at European policymakers, where disinflation is lagging, markets also still expect the Fed to push ahead with at least one more interest rate rise next month. The hawkish rate picture didn't deter demand for two-year Treasury notes at Monday's auction, however, and 2-year yields slipped below 4.70% on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Li Qiang, Hong Kong's, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Gita Gopinath, Morgan Stanley, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal, Economic, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Conference, University of Michigan's, Dallas Federal, Richmond Fed, Central Bank, Treasury, Walgreens, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Russia, Portugal, Sintra

Can that real wage growth persist if the jobs market now loosens with a lag from the swingeing five percentage points of rate hikes in just 15 months? What's more, other surveys have yet to show inflation expectations falling so sharply or lifting confidence. The possibility of a disinflation spur to demand at this juncture may complicate that picture considerably. Importantly, the slower fall in inflation in both Britain and the euro zone means real wage growth remains negative - unlike the latest twist stateside. Bank of America chart on investor survey growth outlookReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD.

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Dom Wilson, Mike Dolan, Alexander Smith Organizations: University of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Bank of, UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Europe, Britain

The referendum, which comes amid a wider reckoning over race relations, proposes to change the constitution and establish an advisory body called the Indigenous Voice to Parliament to give Indigenous Australians a direct say in policies that affect them. Five of those polled were funding or planned to fund the "Yes" campaign, while none endorsed nor were contributing to "No". Commonwealth Bank told Reuters it plans to fund the "Yes" campaign and had hosted two panel discussions with Indigenous speakers. Rio Tinto, which faced criticism in 2020 for destroying Indigenous rock shelters, said the Voice would bring an "additional lens" to government decision-making. Aurora Milroy, a lecturer in Indigenous affairs at the University of Western Australia, said supporting the Voice was easy publicity for companies.

Persons: Rita Wright, Loren Elliott, Anthony Albanese, Intifar Chowdhury, Albanese, Meg O'Neill, Ross Piper, Baker McKenzie, Thomas Mayo, Kate Gillingham, Peter Dutton, Coles, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Aurora Milroy, Byron Kaye, Praveen Menon, Melanie Burton, David Crawshaw, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai Organizations: Australian, REUTERS, Australia's, BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside Energy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Labor, Voice, National, Nine Entertainment, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank, Ethical Investment, Qantas, Australian Financial, Liberal, Fair Australia, Miners, Fortescue Metals, University of Western, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Rio, Western Australia, Woodside, Queensland, University of Western Australia, Melbourne

☆ Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's former showman leader, dies at 86
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Valentina Di Donato Barbie Latza Nadeau Laura Smith-Spark Peter Wilkinson Antonia Mortensen Rob Picheta | Valentina Di Donato | Barbie Latza Nadeau | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

Umberto Cicconi/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Berlusconi swims at a Tunisian beach in 1984. Umberto Cicconi/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Berlusconi leaves a 1985 news conference in Paris. Franco Origlia/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Berlusconi announced in November 1993 that he would be entering the world of politics. Franco Origlia/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Berlusconi waves while attending a European Council meeting in Corfu, Greece, in June 1994. Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images Berlusconi hands the Berlusconi Trophy to AC Milan's Massimo Ambrosini in August 2011.

Persons: Rome, Rome CNN — Silvio Berlusconi, Christ, ”, Berlusconi, Milan’s, Benito Mussolini, “ Il Cavaliere ”, Milan, Giorgia Meloni, Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi, Alessandra Benedetti, Eric Vandeville, Indro Montanelli, Umberto Cicconi, Italy's, Michel Clement, Francis Apesteguy, Veronica Lario, Franco Origlia, Langevin Jacques, Sygma, Cesare Previti, Pope John Paul II, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Veronica, William Stevens, Barbara, Eleonora, Oscar Scalfaro, Patrick Hertzog, Romano Prodi, Alberto Pizzoli, Giuseppe Cacace, Gregorio Borgia, Associated Press Berlusconi, Vittorio Zunino Celotto, Massimo Ambrosini, Claudio Villa, Dan Kitwood, preliminarily, Filippo Monteforte, Alessia Pierdomenico, Remo Casilli, Reuters Berlusconi, Giuseppe Lami, Angelo Carconi, Emanuele Cremaschi, Tiziana Fabi, Luigi Brugnaro, Renato Brunetta, Piero Cruciatti, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Britain’s Boris Johnson, Donald Trump, “ Berlusconi, ” Severgnini, ” Meloni, Claudia Greco, Prodi –, –, Berlusconi’s, Ignazio La Russa, “, Gianfranco Fini –, FILIPPO MONTEFORTE, Vladimir Putin, Volodymr Zelensky, Nobel, salesmanship ’, Jesus Christ, Severgnini, il, salesmanship, Francesca Pascale, Del, Pavarotti, ” Berlusconi, Marina, Carla Dall’Oglio, Luigi Organizations: Rome CNN, Milan’s San Raffaele, Forza Italia, Freedom, Italian, Getty, Canale, AC Milan, Berlusconi, Romano, Associated Press, Associated, Bloomberg, Reuters, Venice, Anadolu Agency, RAI, Media, Milano, Milan –, world’s, Forza Italia Party, Forza, soccer team, Northern League Party, European, Union coalition, Sporting, della, PM, “, ”, Del Monaco Locations: Milan, Paris, AFP, Naples, Italy, Rome, Corfu, Greece, Tatanto, Cannes, France, Italy's, Venice, Italy's Senate, Monza, Lombardy, ”, L’Aquila, Milan’s, Italian, Europe, Ukraine

☆ The moon's pull is so strong it may trigger earthquakes on Earth. Scientists are still baffled by its power.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A small handful of experts claim to have evidence that our satellite produces forces that can trigger earthquakes. The moon's effect on earthquakes was hiddenScientists have long pondered whether the moon's tides could be linked to earthquakes. And it seems that in some cases, the moon did help trigger earthquakes around the world. By digging into these datasets, a few studies have suggested a link between Earth tides and earthquakes. Rather, it is when the rock is on the very brink of collapse that the moon's small tug could push it past that final tipping point.

Persons: —, Vi Nguyen, Chris Scholtz, Scholtz, Juan, Scholz, C.H, Tan, Nat Commun, Davide Zaccagnino, Zaccagnino Organizations: Service, NASA, Columbia Climate School, Pictures, NOAA, US, Nature Communications, Sapienza University of Rome Locations: Fuca, Earthquakes

It's not even midyear yet, but the full gamut of scenarios has been juggled in just five months. World markets have swung from "hard landing" fears of late 2022 to the "soft landing" hopes of the new year and then even unnerving thoughts of "no landing" at all - just before the banking stress hit of March forced them to return to square one. "The economy is more resilient than the market realizes," BlackRock's Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday, adding more interest rates rises will be necessary but that he saw no "evidence that we're going to have a hard landing." A "soft landing" typically relates to the ability of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to get inflation back close to 2% targets without crashing the economy into a deep contraction with surging unemployment via extreme rate rises. If correct - and not all agree - the prospect of a sustained return to 2% inflation targets would surely turn off the seatbelt sign.

Persons: Larry Fink, Willem Sels, Simona Mocuta, Mocuta, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, HSBC Global Private Banking, Nasdaq, Street Global Advisors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, United States, Europe

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.

Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows

The Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in April, pointing to persistent strength in a labor market that suggests pressure on both wages and inflation. Futures traders raised to 70% the probability of a 25 basis points hike at the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. FEDWATCHFed Governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision. The Labor Department's closely watched May unemployment report, due on Friday, could decide whether a rate hike occurs. Intel was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500 as the chipmaker said it was on track to hit the upper end of its second-quarter revenue forecast.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden, it's, Brad Conger, Callaghan, Conger, FEDWATCH, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Tim Ghriskey, we've, Nvidia Corp's, Herbert Lash, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Senate, Co, Labor Department, Philadelphia Fed, Inverness, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Technology, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Parts Inc, Genuine, O'Reily, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, Nvidia, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Conshohocken , Pennsylvania, New York, Bengaluru

CNN —The Miami Heat closed out the Boston Celtics in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals on Monday, winning a deciding Game 7 103-84 to advance to the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have not played a game in a week after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals last Monday. 1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, before winning a war of attrition against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference semis. This brought the Heat and the Celtics together in the Eastern Conference Finals. Back-to-back blowouts meant that Boston took the series back to Miami for Game 6 – the most crucial game of the series so far.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.

With a wry nod to the weekend coronation of King Charles, Goldman Sachs' currency team labelled an upgrade of its sterling recommendation from neutral to 'Long (live) Sterling' - nudging a 3-month forecast for sterling 3% stronger to 0.86 per euro. "Headwinds on sterling in 2022 - mostly natural gas prices and the relative stance of BoE policy - have turned to tailwinds." Economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show incoming UK readouts more positive relative to expectations than at any time since October 2020. But the FTSE 250 is mostly holding its own so far in 2023 as they have both advanced 3%-4%. UK Economic Surprises surge vs rest of the westG3 Terminal RatesFTSE100 vs FTSE250The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

CNN —A Minnesota judge found former Minneapolis police officer Tou Thao guilty of aiding and abetting second-degree manslaughter for his role in the May 2020 killing of George Floyd, according to court documents filed Monday. “Like the bystanders, Thao could see Floyd’s life slowly ebbing away as the restraint continued,” Cahill wrote in the verdict. Tou Thao Hennepin County Sheriff's Office“The conviction of Tou Thao is historic and the right outcome,” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, the lead prosecutor of Floyd’s murder, said in a statement. Chauvin was found guilty of second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter in state court and was sentenced to 22.5 years in prison in June 2021. Lane, Kueng and Thao were found guilty in federal court of violating Floyd’s civil rights and of failing to intervene to stop Chauvin during the restraint.

☆ Ex-Minneapolis police officer found guilty of aiding in George Floyd killing
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Thao had opted to allow Hennepin County District Judge Peter Cahill decide whether he was guilty or not guilty, waiving his right to a trial by jury. Derek Chauvin, a white officer captured on cellphone video kneeling on the handcuffed Floyd's neck for more than nine minutes, was found guilty of murdering Floyd in 2021. With Chauvin kneeling on Floyd's neck, and Lane and Kueng restraining his knees and buttocks, Floyd pleaded for his life before falling limp. Two other former officers, Thomas Lane and J. Alexander Kueng, pleaded guilty last year to aiding and abetting second-degree manslaughter, the same charge Thao faced. At a federal trial last year, Keung, Lane and Thao were found guilty of violating Floyd's civil rights.

☆ Morning Bid: Cloud control - tech trumps banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Alphabet (GOOGL.O) also gained 1% as it too trumpeted gains in cloud services and AI, alongside plans for a $70 billion buyback. With Meta (META.O) results out later, its stock was up 2% and Amazon (AMZN.O) raced ahead 4%. PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) shares jumped 15% in extended trading after the regional lender said deposits have been building recently. And in Europe, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) shares bucked otherwise dour markets on a forecast-beating 21% jump in first-quarter profits. U.S. Treasury markets continued to rally, with yields on 2-year notes dropping below 4% Tuesday and testing 3.9% early today.

☆ Premarket stocks: Is Big Oil running out of gas?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Oil and gas stocks have been on a two-year tear, ripping ahead as natural gas prices surged due to supply chain kinks, a strong economy, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What’s happening: Brutally high oil and gas prices were the talk of the town last year and one of the largest contributing factors to sky-high inflation. That’s bad news for automobile drivers, but ended up being great for the energy industry as oil prices and energy stocks are closely interlinked. Blackstone is feeling the commercial real estate slumpThe ongoing commercial real estate slowdown has a new victim: Blackstone. Profits from the sale of commercial real estate assets fell 54% to $4.4 billion, down from $9.5 billion last year.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Ray Dalio says fewer countries want to hold the dollar as China trade grows and Russia sanctions expose new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Global central banks are less willing to hold the dollar, billionaire investor Ray Dalio said. One reason is that China's share of global trade is rising while the US share is falling. Another is that Western sanctions against Russia have exposed new risks for holding dollar assets. But, with China increasing the yuan's use in global trade, the future necessity for the greenback may be ebbing. Those sanctions "increased the perceived risk that those debt assets can be frozen in the way that they've been frozen for Russia," Dalio said.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Weak retail sales, manufacturing output data point to slowing US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Retail sales are mostly goods, which are typically bought on credit, and are not adjusted for inflation. Retail sales and inflationThe decline in retail sales was almost across the board. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, edged up 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.3% last month.

☆ US retail sales post second straight monthly drop; factory output falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Retail sales are mostly goods, which are typically bought on credit, and are not adjusted for inflation. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, edged up 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.3% last month.

☆ Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing - and earnings from Wall Street's biggest banks now test the thesis. Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward. Next month's expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end. And with China's booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, "soft landing" hopes are back in vogue. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Marketmind: Dollar skids, China revs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar's DXY index - the Swiss franc hit its strongest level in more than two years. Taking in all the information, futures markets still show a near 75% chance of another quarter point rate rise to the 5.0-5.25% range in May, but more than 60 basis points of cuts from there to yearend. Two-year Treasury yields were stuck at 4%, with producer price inflation and weekly jobless up next on Thursday's data calendar. European markets were further pepped by reports the European Central Bank was minded to downsize its rate hikes to a quarter point in May after six successive half point moves. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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