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☆ Goldman Sachs thinks the 60/40 portfolio is far from dead and is set to make a strong comeback in 2023, if history is any guide
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Anil Varma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But Goldman Sachs Asset Management says it could come back in 2023, going by past patterns. Not so fast, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Furthermore, history shows the 60/40 portfolio tends to deliver strong returns in the years immediately following a period of negative returns, Goldman Sachs Asset Management said in its note. "Performance for an illustrative traditional 60/40 portfolio has been challenged in 2022 amid surges in interest rates, recession risk, and broader market uncertainty," it said. The outlook for the 60/40 portfolio has also brightened due to increased bond yields, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

In the ten years before the pandemic, distillate inventories declined by an average of more than 11 million barrels over the same period. Between 2010 and 2019, seasonal drawdowns ranged from ranged from as little as 7 million barrels to as much as 21 million barrels. Stocks are still 21 million barrels (-16% or -1.25 standard deviations) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average. But the deficit to the seasonal average has narrowed from 34 million barrels (-24% or -2.05 standard deviations) on Oct. 7. Chartbook: U.S. distillate inventoriesPRICE RESPONSEThere is some evidence high refining margins and prices for diesel and other middle distillates are restraining consumption.

☆ DraftKings says no evidence systems were breached following report of a hack
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Jessica Golden | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

DraftKings said Monday there is no evidence the online betting platform's systems were breached following a report that some users were hacked. An unknown number of users discovered unusual activity associated with their DraftKings account that led to withdrawals from their bank accounts, according to a report by The Action Network and social media posts. The company said it has identified less than $300,000 of customer funds that were affected by the unusual activity and that it intends to "make whole any customer that was impacted." The incident comes at a time when users are increasingly skeptical of online financial transactions following the recent collapse of crypto platform FTX. Shares of the company fell as much as 11% Monday following the report before recovering slightly.

☆ Avoid stocks and make these 7 investments instead to improve your odds of enjoying a positive return in what may be a brutal 2023, according to PIMCO
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's how the firm says to invest in 2023 as interest rates peak and markets struggle. After one of the worst years ever for the classic 60-40 stock-bond portfolio, portfolio managers at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) have gone back to the drawing board. Higher interest rates will bring down corporate profits — not just inflation, Browne warned. "With interest rates higher amid a challenging macro environment, we see a compelling case for bond allocations and are cautious about higher-risk investments," Browne wrote. Countries that started hiking interest rates early, including those in emerging markets, will offer the best opportunities early in the downturn.

☆ Vanguard says 60-40 investing strategy is not dead and will work out again for investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After ugly losses in both stocks and bonds, many investors have written off the 60/40 investing strategy. The 60/40 strategy is on track for its second worst year ever, down about 14.5% in 2022 as of Oct. 31, Vanguard found. They fear that 60/40 doesn't work anymore," said Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Vanguard chief economist, Americas and global head of portfolio construction. Brighter prospects ahead The beauty of the 60/40 strategy is that the two asset classes work as a hedge against the other. Vanguard has funds based on the 60/40 strategy.

In 2021, India was the world’s third-largest crude importer (214 million tonnes) after China (526 million tonnes) and the United States (305 million tonnes) (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, 2022). India’s domestic crude and condensate production has been stuck at 30-40 million tonnes per year for the last two decades, data from India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas shows. By contrast, domestic petroleum consumption has doubled to 202 million tonnes in 2021 from 103 million tonnes in 2002 (“Snapshot of India’s oil and gas data”, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Nov. 10). Yellen has become the chief advocate for the price cap concept as the Biden administration attempts to sell the idea to sceptical oil buyers and governments in Asia. But further SPR releases could buy policymakers and India’s refiners time and are likely in the event Russia retaliates against the price cap.

☆ Saving for a short-term goal? Here's where to put your money
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If you're investing for a long-term goal, such as retirement, this thinking is sound. Compared with other types of investments, stocks offer a high potential return on your money. How to invest for short-term goalsSay you want to put a down payment on a house sometime over the next three years. Theoretically, you could boost the amount you're stashing away if you put the money in a stock market that shoots up. That means that your shortest-term money likely belongs in cash — not even in a relatively conservative asset, such as bonds, which can still lose money.

☆ Here's how to pick winning stocks that can help your portfolio survive a recession, according to the managers of a $42 billion fund that beat 92% of peers in the past decade
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker have guided their fund to a top 8% performance in the past decade. That's in sharp contrast to Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker, co-managers of the $42 billion First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX). "What you'll find is that the amount of whatever it is that we're collecting never becomes large enough to do too much damage to the portfolio," Brooker told Insider. Those first two points are often prioritized by managers seeking quality stocks, but fewer fund managers target those latter two attributes. Fund managers should carefully consider a stock's long-term outlook instead of simply whether or not it diversifies and lowers the volatility of a portfolio.

☆ Qualcomm shares fall on weak first-quarter outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Lauren Feiner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shares of chipmaker Qualcomm fell more than 8% Thursday, a day after the company reported weak first-quarter guidance and said it started a hiring freeze in the current quarter. But the company called for fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.25 to $2.45 per share on $9.2 billion to $10 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected earnings per share of $3.42 and revenue of $12.02 billion. CEO Cristiano Amon stressed on the company's earnings call that the company is looking at a "temporary cyclical inventory drawdown." Piper Sandler analysts maintained an overweight rating but cut their price target from $185 to $145, saying they "see the drawdowns as limited to the December and March quarters."

☆ The volatile bond market could cause a 'system reset,' says an award-winning fund manager who explains why the way out will either be apocalyptic or a 'shock move higher' for stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Michael Gayed says if volatility in the bond market doesn't abate, economic activity could halt. But even for someone with Gayed's expertise, this year's market conditions have brought surprises relative to historical cycles. Instead, it's a system-wide distress signal and an indication that the government bond market can't handle the higher rates, he added. If the bond market were to have a really nasty collapse further from where we are now, "it's like a reset for the system", Gayed said. However, a recovery likely won't be led by US large-cap stocks, Gayed said.

Annual supply contracts are in the process of being negotiated and at least some buyers are "self-sanctioning" by specifying no Russian metal in 2023. LME stocks and percentage of Russian metalCOPPER FLOWSThe proportion of Russian copper in LME stocks was actually higher in the third quarter of 2021, when it reached 95% of live tonnage, LME data shows. With just Nornickel still fully unsanctioned, the amount of potentially deliverable Russian copper is sharply reduced. Moreover, there is an obvious destination for any unsold Russian copper next year. The three options are to do nothing, set thresholds for Russian metal deliveries or suspend all warranting across all locations.

Brent crude futures settled up $3.05, or 3.5%, at $89.32 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended up $3.65, or 4.7%, to $82.15 a barrel. The dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday before pulling back. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. "All raw material dominated currencies are up - crude is not just moving in isolation here."

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday following unexpected drawdowns in U.S. crude and fuel stocks, and as the U.S. dollar pulled back from recent gains, boosting commodities prices. Brent crude futures were up $2.82, or 3.3%, at $89.09 per barrel by 12:31 p.m. EST (1631 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.20, or 4.1%, to $81.70 a barrel. The dollar hit a fresh two-decade peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday before pulling back. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday following unexpected drawdowns in U.S. crude and fuel stocks, outweighing downward pressure from the continued strength in the U.S. dollar. U.S. crude stocks fell by 215,000 barrels in the most recent week, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined by 2.4 million and 2.9 million barrels respectively, as refining activity declined following several outages. Wholesale gasoline prices have been on the rise in the United States as well after refiners in the Midwest and West Coast shut. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Producer group OPEC+ meets on Oct. 5, where Russia is likely to propose an output cut of around 1 million barrels per day, a source familiar with Russian thinking said on Tuesday.

☆ Ray Dalio sees these classic early signs of a US recession and expects the economy to get worse over the next 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio says the US is showing the hallmark signs of a recession. Dalio pointed to drawdowns in cash balances, contracting housing and auto sectors, and rising delinquency rates. "I think it's going to get worse into '23 and '24, which has implications for elections," Dalio said. Speaking before the Fed's policy announcement, Dalio said the Fed has a tradeoff between strengthening the economy and controlling inflation. "They will tighten monetary policy and take away credit until the economic pain is greater than the inflation pain," he said.

☆ Jim Cramer's Guide to Investing: Principles to help you manage your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-06 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +40 min

At the CNBC Investing Club, we strive to help members manage their own portfolios by showing them how we do it. Principles 1-5 Principles 6-10 Principles 11-15 Principles 16-20 Principles 21-25 1. The reality is, you want to buy stocks that you believe will go higher, and sell those you believe will go lower. Don’t buy all at once; arrogance is a sin Accept that you will never be correct 100% of the time and use that knowledge to your advantage. Expect corrections; don’t be afraid of them When it comes to the stock market, eventually a correction will happen.

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