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The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — dropped 0.5% in October from September, the first decline since May and biggest since April 2020. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices rose 1.3% from October 2022, down from 2.2% in September and the smallest gain since July. The year-over-year gain in core producer prices was the smallest since January 2021. The wholesale price of goods fell 1.4% from September to October, pulled down by a 15.3% drop in the price of gasoline. Year-over-year wholesale inflation, for instance, has dropped since hitting 11.7% in March 2022.
Persons: , Matthew Martin Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Labor Department, Oxford Economics, CPI Locations: U.S
Wednesday's batch of analyst research included bullish calls on a credit card giant and a sports betting name. The firm downgraded the pharmaceutical stock to neutral from overweight and lowered its price target to $55 per share from $68. The bank downgraded the Canadian Solar to underweight from neutral in a Wednesday note and lowered its price target to $22 per share from $32. The analyst noted that the guidance given confirms his bull case for the stock, which consists of a $70 price target. The bank initiated coverage of the credit card giant with an overweight rating and a $184 per share price target — which implies more than 17% upside from Tuesday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, John DiFucci, there's, Brian Evans, Cantor Fitzgerald downgrades, Myers Squibb Cantor Fitzgerald, We've, Olivia Brayer, Myers Squibb, — Brian Evans, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Wells, Omar Mejias, Mark Strouse, DraftKings, Stephen Grambling, Grambling, Fred Imbert, millennials, Z, Gen, Terry Ma Organizations: CNBC, Barclays, American Express, Guggenheim, FactSet, Myers Squibb, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Warner Music Group, accel, JPMorgan, American Locations: Bristol, Generac, Europe, CSIQ
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic growth is decelerating 'no question', says American Century Investments' Rich WeissRich Weiss, American Century Investments CIO of Multi-Asset Strategy Group, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the possibility of recession and why he says an economic downturn is inevitable.
Persons: Rich Weiss Rich Weiss Organizations: Investments, Century Investments
"If we were to get a low CPI next week, yields can come down around that number and we may get some weakening in the dollar," Wizman said. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 0.2 basis points to 5.020%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was down 3.2 basis points at 4.598%. Traders would be keeping a close watch on interest rate volatility, said Schneller, noting major market fluctuations recently. "A primary cause for this volatility is the debate over whether the current Fed funds rate is overly high or insufficient." In currency markets, the dollar index rose 0.019% to 105.91, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.067.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Powell, Jerome Powell, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Powell's, Bruno Schneller, Schneller, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasignhe, Tomasz Janowski, Richard Chang Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, International Monetary Fund, Fed, FX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, INVICO Asset Management, Reuters Graphics U.S, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Macquarie, New York, China, Beijing, New Zealand, London
Wolfe reiterates Nvidia as outperform Wolfe said it's getting more bullish on the stock over the next several quarters. Wolfe downgrades Occidental Petroleum to peer perform from outperform Wolfe said shares of the oil company will be range bound. Bank of America downgrades FTC Solar to underperform from buy Bank of America said it was wrong about its prior buy rating on the solar stock. Bank of America downgrades CommScope to neutral from buy Bank of America trends are worsening for the tech company. Bank of America initiates Weatherford as buy Bank of America said in its initiation of the global energy company that it's seen a "remarkable turnaround."
Persons: Stephens, Henry Schein, Stifel, it's bullish, Wolfe, it's, Freyr, BTIG, FREY, William Blair, Wells, Baird, Weatherford, Girish Saligram, Gordon Haskett, Haskett, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Vera Organizations: Portillo's Inc, JPMorgan, Netflix, Citi, Body Works Citi, Nvidia, Wolfe Alpha, Occidental Petroleum, Bank of America, FTC, sel, RBC, EV Locations: Illumina, Occidental, Wells Fargo, Hawaii, 3Q23, U.S
Morgan Stanley highlighted several companies that are prepared to withstand — and even benefit from —consumers' shifting preferences this holiday season, as inflationary pressures dampen shoppers' budgets this quarter. According to Morgan Stanley's proprietary monthly survey, most holiday shoppers are looking to see 30% discounts, on average, before they begin spending this holiday season. A strong holiday season should benefit the entire airline industry given the ongoing demand for air travel among consumers across income brackets, according to Morgan Stanley. "Durable goods spending has slowed and that is expected to continue into the holiday season," Wilson said in the note. Toys could emerge as "relative winner" this season as they become a more top-of-mind purchase for parents during the holiday season, analyst Megan Alexander wrote.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan, They're, Ravi Shanker, Wilson, Amazon's, Brian Nowak, Lauren Schenk, Chewy, Morgan Stanley's, Alex Straton, Megan Alexander Organizations: Consumers, Delta Airlines, American Airlines and United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air Group, Apparel, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie, Fitch Locations: Delta, U.S
Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy in on track to see a jump in growth, according to DataTrek Research. Oil prices should rise if China's economy is accelerating, as its air quality suggests. This proves our basis point that air pollution readings can give investors an early call on a country's economy," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said. In fact, the air quality in Beijing has seen a "very visible" increase in air pollution in the last two weeks, as has Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, it will take weeks for the recent rise in China's air pollution to register in the official economic data.
Persons: DataTrek, , Nicholas Colas, Colas, Brent Organizations: Research, Service, DataTrek Research Locations: China, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Shanghai
The government’s October jobs report is expected to show Friday that companies and government agencies added 184,000 jobs, a solid showing, though down sharply from a blockbuster 336,000 gain in September. The Fed scrutinizes the monthly job data to assess whether employers are still hiring and raising pay aggressively as a result of labor shortages. The Fed's policymakers are trying to calibrate their key interest rate to simultaneously cool inflation, support job growth and ward off a recession. At the same time, inflationary pressures have been easing as the Fed has sharply raised borrowing costs. In the meantime, despite long-standing predictions by economists that the Fed's ever-higher interest rates would trigger a recession, the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, remains sturdy.
Persons: ’ ’, Nancy Vanden Houten, ’ Vanden Houten, Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Federal, United Auto Workers, Detroit, Wage, Labor Department Locations: U.S, COVID
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "If I wanted to see a number going the right way for employment, it would be this one," Jim Cramer said Friday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Nonfarm, Jim, Walt Disney, Wynn, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Labor, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Apple, Starbucks, Coterra Energy, Emerson, Hulu, Disney, Wynn Resorts, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Macao
WASHINGTON (AP) — Employers posted 9.6 million job openings in September, up from 9.5 million in August and a sign that the U.S. job market remains strong even as the U.S. Federal Reserve attempts to cool the economy. Layoffs fell to 1.5 million from 1.7 million in August, more evidence that workers enjoy an unusual degree of job security. The number of Americans quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence they can find better pay elsewhere — was virtually unchanged. The September openings are down from a record 12 million in March 2022 but remain high by historical standards. Before 2021 — when the American economy began to surge from the COVID-19 pandemic — monthly job openings had never topped 8 million.
Persons: Organizations: WASHINGTON, — Employers, U.S . Federal, Labor Department Locations: U.S, American
The Federal Reserve meeting will most likely conclude Wednesday with the central bank not doing a whole lot of anything — just the way the market wants things for now. There's virtually no chance policymakers will make a move either way on interest rates. Inflation, while decelerating, is still too high, and the economy is growing at a solid pace despite the highest benchmark interest rates since the early part of the century. "My sense is that Powell is going to want to be very measured and careful about sounding too hawkish. "The last thing Powell wants to do here is make a mistake and come across as too hawkish, because the implication of that as you could see a risk-off environment.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Josh Emanuel, Powell, He's, You've, Emmanuel Organizations: Reserve, Federal, Market, Wilshire, Treasury
Wells Fargo upgrades Gap to overweight from equal weight Wells said the turnaround is taking shape for Gap. Deutsche Bank upgrades Livent to buy from hold Deutsche said it sees an attractive entry point for the lithium company. Bank of America downgrades TransUnion to underperform from buy Bank of America double downgraded the stock due to concerns about consumer lending. Bank of America initiates Syndax as buy Bank of America said it sees upside for the pharmaceutical company. Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgrades Alphabet to neutral from buy Monness said it's concerned about regulatory headwinds.
Persons: TD Cowen, Freyr, FREY, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, it's, We're, Wells, Needham, Etsy, Piper Sandler, Piper, TRU, SocGen, Bernstein, Deutsche Bank downgrades Corning, 2H24, Jefferies, Monness, Crespi, Hardt, Piper Sandler downgrades Livent Organizations: EV, Apple, BMO, Bank of America, Microsoft, GPS, Alto Networks, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Citi, TAM, Barclays, Verizon, Piper Sandler downgrades Regions, Citizens Financial, RF, " Bank of America, Farfetch, Machinery, UBS, Nvidia, Veeva, Commercial, Syndax Pharmaceuticals Locations: EVgo, Cybersecurity, Corning, Albemarle, LTHM
China Jan-Sept fiscal revenue growth slows amid shaky recovery
  + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Men work at the construction site of an apartment building in Beijing, China, July 29, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - China's fiscal revenue grew 8.9% in the first nine months, decelerating from a 10% gain in January-August, official data showed, as its economic recovery remained on shaky ground. Fiscal revenue hit 16.67 trillion yuan ($2.28 trillion)during January-September, while fiscal expenditure rose 3.9% to 19.79 trillion yuan, data from the finance ministry showed on Tuesday. In September alone, fiscal revenue fell 1.3% year-on-year, compared with a 4.6% fall in August, according to Reuters calculations based on the ministry's data. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China could achieve its full-year growth target of around 5% if fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is above 4.4%.
Persons: Thomas Peter, JP Morgan, Nomura, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING
Nadella touted Azure's AI leadership on the post-earnings conference call, calling its AI infrastructure the best for both training and inference, while noting it has deployed its AI services in more regions than any other cloud providers. Gaming was also a strong, with Xbox content and services revenue increasing 12% on a constant-currency basis. Rounding out the quarter, revenue at the productivity-and-business-processes unit increased about 13%, to $18.59 billion, beating estimates of $18.19 billion. Some key highlights include the 17%-constant-currency increase in Microsoft Office commercial revenue growth, which benefitted from a 10% increase in seat growth. Second quarter Azure revenue growth is expected to be 26% to 27% in constant currency.
Persons: Satya Nadella, Nadella, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Omar Marques Organizations: Microsoft, Revenue, LSEG, Club, Fortune, Gaming, Activision Blizzard, CNBC, Getty
Mortgage rates spiked quite a bit last week, with 30-year mortgage rates reaching a high of 7.58%, according to Zillow data. When mortgage rates will fall largely hinges on inflation, and this week's CPI data will give us the latest look at how prices are trending. But right now, experts generally expect that inflation will continue to slow, allowing mortgage rates to trend down throughout 2024. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
China's Golden Week: expected consumption boom disappoints
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Hong Kong CNN —China has concluded its Golden Week holiday on a muted note, with key travel and spending data showing weaker-than-expected recovery in consumption amid a wider economic slump. Before the holiday, the ministry had expected domestic travel to hit 896 million trips, and tourism spending to reach 782.5 billion yuan ($107 billion). According to the National Immigration Administration, on average 1.48 million people crossed the border every day during the Golden Week holiday. Weakness at the box officeChina’s box office hit multi-year lows during the holiday week. A recovery in domestic consumption not related to the Golden Week also fell short of expectations.
Persons: ” Goldman Sachs, Tesla, BYD Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, National Immigration Administration, Shenyang North Railway, Stringer, Getty, Citi, Entertainment, Tencent, China Passenger Car Association Sunday, CNN, EV Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, China's, Liaoning, AFP, Tourism
Wall Street's dream scenario is dead
  + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Wall Street's vision of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is unraveling. AdvertisementAdvertisementWall Street's dream of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is probably dead. Interest rates soared. As painful as inflation and higher interest rates were, the economy remained resilient as consumers held onto their jobs and kept swiping their credit cards. It has to acknowledge that interest rates are now sufficiently restrictive, and decide that it's next monetary policy move isn't an interest rate hike, but rather a pause, and then a cut.
Persons: , it's, Jerome Powell, Powell's, Powell, Buckle, Greg Daco, Something's, Kevin O'Leary, we've, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Service, Treasury, Valley Bank, Bloomberg, CNBC Locations: America
Storm clouds are growing over the U.S. economy as the third quarter winds down this week. There is the ongoing strike by United Auto Workers members against the major car manufacturers. There is the rising price of oil with the international benchmark Brent crude now sitting above $93 a barrel. Aiding the economy’s escape from a downturn has been an unusual set of circumstances that include falling inflation, rising wages and some leftover stimulus from the COVID pandemic. “Such a shutdown could leave a visible mark on the economy,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said last week.
Persons: Bob Doll, ” Gregory Daco, ” Daco, ” Wells Organizations: United Auto Workers, Brent, Crossmark Advisors, Federal Reserve, , Fed Locations: U.S
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.399% overnight in Asia, its highest rate since early November 2007, and the two-year yield rose further above 5%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.27%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 1.05%, hit by lowered growth outlooks. CENTRAL BANKSGlobal central banks take stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most-heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings this week. A swathe of emerging market central banks including Turkey and South Africa will also meet. The Swedish crown sank to a record low against the euro on Monday, days before the Riksbank is expected to raise interest rates again.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BOE, Brent, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Saira Malik, France's, Stocks, Xi, Kazuo Ueda, Herbert Lash, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara, Stella Qiu, Philippa Fletcher, Alexander Smith, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Global, Federal, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Societe Generale, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China Evergrande, HK, CENTRAL, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bannockburn, New York, Asia, Turkey, South Africa, Swedish, London, Sydney
watch nowThe auto workers' strike is the latest in a series of labor-management conflicts that economists say could start having significant growth impacts if they persist. So far, the United Auto Workers stoppage has impacted just a small portion of the workforce with limited implications for the broader economy. United Auto Workers (UAW) members on a picket line outside the Stellantis NV Toledo Assembly Complex in Toldeo, Ohio, on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. August alone saw some 4.1 million labor hours lost this year, the most for a single month since August 2000, according to the Labor Department. Year to date, there have been 7.4 million hours lost, compared to just 636 hours total for the same period in 2022.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Emily Elconin, Shepherdson, Doris Dear, John Nacion, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Biden, Janet Yellen, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: United Auto Workers, Labor Department statistics, Pantheon, UAW, Stellantis NV, Bloomberg, Getty, Big Three, Ford, GM, Federal Reserve, Labor, Labor Department, HBO, National Union Solidarity, Writers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, University of Michigan, RSM, York Fed Locations: Stellantis NV Toledo, Toldeo , Ohio, U.S, New York City, John, Los Angeles, California , Oregon, Washington, York
Member of the rate-setting Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger speaks during an interview with Reuters in Budapest, Hungary, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Krisztina Than Acquire Licensing RightsBUDAPEST, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank could cut its base rate to 10-11% by the end of the year from 13%, a rate-setter told Reuters, warning however against big or unexpected moves amid the fallout from a larger-than-expected rate cut in Poland last week. Once that alignment takes place, the NBH will simplify its policy toolkit further, which could include making the interest rate corridor around its base rate symmetrical, he said. "From that point onwards, we will take all of our steps in a very serious, data-driven mode, looking at the market, tracking the market," Pleschinger said. Asked about the fallout from the National Bank of Poland's much-larger-than-expected 75 bps interest rate cut last week that saw regional currencies weaken, Pleschinger said Hungary's central bank should tread carefully.
Persons: National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger, Gyula Pleschinger, unwinding, Pleschinger, Disinflation, Gergely Szakacs, Hugh Lawson Organizations: National Bank of Hungary, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European, National Bank of, Thomson Locations: Budapest, Hungary, Poland, National Bank of Poland's
U.S. stocks are the best place for investors compared to their international counterparts, according to Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "The U.S. is simply holding in better than the rest of the world," Roland said in an interview from the conference in Huntington Beach, California. "I would call it the cleanest shirt in dirty laundry today." Roland said part of her reasoning stems from her outlook that quality stocks will perform better in a late-cycle environment. But Roland said investors need to act quickly, as bond yields will likely "come down in a meaningful way" into the next recession.
Persons: Emily Roland, Roland, CNBC's Bob Pisani, Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management Locations: Huntington Beach , California, U.S
Global stocks notched their second-worst month of the year in August, with the MSCI broad aggregate of world indexes dropping 2.96%, according to LSEG data. This has carried into a tepid start to September trade, but Madison Faller, global investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in a research note on Friday that 2023 can still finish strong. "While there are still things we don't know, the read from the key players — central banks, Wall Street, Main Street and the C-suite — suggests that the outlook feels brighter today than it did a year ago," Faller said. "With less worry about the near term, more firms are starting to focus on how they can continue growing in the long term. Technology stocks, particularly those with a heavy focus on AI, have driven a huge portion of the market's gains so far this year.
Persons: Madison Faller, Faller, haven't, Jerome Powell, Powell didn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, Peter Oppenheimer, we're, Tesla Organizations: NYSE, NYSE Stock, JPMorgan Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Global Equity, CNBC, Nvidia, Facebook Locations: Wall, China, U.S
US stocks dropped Wednesday as fears of more Fed rate hikes swirled. Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book showed softer activity growth and cooling labor market in July and August. Fears of more potential rate hikes from the Federal Reserve swirled following early morning comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins. "Given the data, the Fed will most likely deliver a hawkish pause at the next meeting. Separately, the Fed's Beige book release on Wednesday showed slower activity growth and softer hiring in the labor market through July and August.
Persons: Susan Collins, Collins, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Boston, Service, Big Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Federal, Boston Fed, Wall Street, LPL, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
"Most Districts reported price growth slowed overall," the Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" summary of surveys and interviews conducted across its 12 districts through Aug. 28. It added that "nearly all districts indicated businesses renewed their previously unfulfilled expectations that wage growth will slow broadly in the near term." Data since the last Fed rate hike six weeks ago has tended to support that view, with the economy adding an average of 150,000 jobs per month over the last three months, down sharply from the prior three months. Earlier on Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the central bank has the space to be patient, while acknowledging that inflation pressures, though easing, still remain too high. Home building was picking up, the Fed said, but building affordable properties is being strained by high financing costs and rising insurance premiums.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Collins, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Boston, New, New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
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