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☆ Citi upgrades this financial giant, sees sharp gains ahead after banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's time to buy Deutsche Bank shares as the beaten-down bank shows signs of a strong recovery, according to Citi. Analyst Andrew Coombs upgraded Deutsche Bank to buy/high risk from neutral/high risk, saying the stock has further upside after the firm's stronger-than-expected first quarter results . "Deutsche Bank is one of the most de-rated banks YTD, yet the 1Q23 results demonstrated potential for further consensus earnings upgrades. In addition the company provided additional reassurance on the funding & liquidity position of the bank and on US CRE exposure," Coombs wrote. DB 1D mountain Deutsche Bank shares 1-day Deutsche Bank last week reported a first-quarter net profit of 1.158 billion euros, or around $1.28 billion.

☆ Wolfe double-upgrades this regional bank stock that's an 'attractive place to hide'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Prosperity Bancshares is a safe pick in a sector that's been recently defined by risk, according to Wolfe Research. Analyst Bill Carcache double-upgraded the regional bank stock to outperform from underperform, saying the bank has "relative safety on high ground" amid sector turmoil that was initially ignited by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in March and reignited by the auction won by JPMorgan for First Republic Bank this week. His new target implies the stock could rally 15% from Tuesday's close. That's of increasing importance as industry insiders expect more stringent regulations following the recent bank failures, he said. He said that the bank has historically had fewer write-offs than regional peers.

☆ Five reasons why regional bank stock investors are worried
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Many regional banks, like Zions, KeyCorp and US Bancorp, were trading at their lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in early 2009. Repricing of commercial real estate (CRE) loans is a major issue, given how top-heavy many regional banks are in this space. "Owners of bank stocks are asking, 'Why am I here?,'" one bank analyst who asked to remain anonymous told me. He has a point: the SPDR Regional Bank ETF (KRE), a basket of large regional banks, began trading in mid-2006. You heard right: a basket of regional banks is 20% lower than 17 years ago.

☆ I use ChatGPT and it's like having a 24/7 personal assistant for $20 a month. Here are 5 ways it's helping me save time and make more money.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Robin Madell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

She says using ChatGPT is like having an assistant and gives her more time to focus on her children. It also helps me answer client questions in a contextually appropriate way and has afforded me more time to concentrate on my kids' extracurriculars or helping them with homework. I've created a list of common questions that potential clients ask about particular properties, buildings, or locations, such as "What's the square footage?" And once we receive a response from the potential client, we can forward their information to the relevant team for a more personalized follow-up. I'm able to engage with a larger number of potential clients at any given time.

☆ I use ChatGPT and it's like having a 24-7 personal assistant for $20 a month. Here are 5 ways it's helping me save time and make more money.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Robin Madell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

She says using ChatGPT is like having an assistant and gives her more time to focus on her children. It also helps me answer client questions in a contextually appropriate way and has afforded me more time to concentrate on my kids' extracurriculars or help them with homework. I've created a list of common questions that potential clients ask about particular properties, buildings, or locations, such as, "What's the square footage?" I'm able to engage with a larger number of potential clients at any given time. Generates data reportsChatGPT can generate data reports that allow me to analyze the performance of particular client interactions, as well as outreach and marketing campaigns.

☆ Warren Buffett's business partner warns of a credit crunch in commercial real estate - and says it's a tough time to be an investor
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Charlie Munger warned of a nationwide pullback in lending to the commercial real estate industry. Warren Buffett's partner said investors face stiff competition and an interest-rate headwind. He flagged that many of them have suffered painful blows to their loan portfolios from declines in real estate prices, and pointed to office buildings and shopping centers as particular headaches. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank in recent weeks has stoked concerns of a wider credit crunch. Real estate investors rely heavily on debt, which has grown more costly thanks to rising interest rates.

☆ First Republic collapse sparks sector-wide regional bank shares sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The logo of PNC Bank, a subsidiary of PNC Financial Services Group, is seen on the window of a branch in Washington, U.S. April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ashraf FahimMay 1 (Reuters) - Shares of regional lenders fell in morning trading on Monday following the collapse of First Republic Bank (FRC.N), the third major casualty of the biggest crisis to hit the U.S. banking sector since 2008. Among individual movers, Citizens Financial Group (CFG.N), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N), Truist Financial Corp (TFC.N) and U.S. Bancorp (USB.N) fell between 2.2% and 7%. While investors digested the quick deal for First Republic's assets with a pinch of salt, the regulator-engineered rescue effort sparked a sell-off in the mid-cap bank sector. Global banking has been rocked by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.

The hedge funds said they can share ideas, but cannot reveal their trading positions for regulatory reasons. Reddy said he preferred senior unsecured bank debt, that allowed bondholders payment ahead of some other creditors in the event of an insolvency. Taking bearish positions on banks that lend to smaller and medium sized firms could prove opportunistic if the economy weakens, he added. Trend-wise the Japanese yen should continue to weaken," said Chua, noting that central banks in Asia have slowed or paused rate hikes. Insurers, which holds commercial mortgage-backed securities and property, will likely feel pressures on CRE, he said.

☆ The bad loan term that's back for banks trying to spot a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If there wasn't enough banking jargon to blind you, it's time to learn a new piece of it: Welcome to the industry's era of the "criticized loan." "Criticized loans could be paying or performing but a loan could be singled out because of its collateral." At Bank of America, criticized loans to office building projects rose to $3.7 billion out of $19 billion in office loans. But office buildings represent only a quarter of the bank's commercial real estate loans, and all CRE is just 7% of the bank's total loans and leases. "It's almost impossible for us to see office [losses] more than 4 or 5 percent of office loans.

German specialised property lenders such as Aareal Bank (ARLG.DE), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBBG.DE) and Berlin Hyp, have a bigger concentration of real estate exposure, analysts added. Blackstone (BX.N) recently blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust after facing a flurry of redemption requests. Open-ended real estate funds in Britain have also battled to meet strong demand for redemptions. In Europe, CRE exposure for smaller banks, more at risk of deposit flight, is estimated at under 30% of all loans, Capital Economics said. "On the other, real estate owners themselves are going to face quite material increase in costs."

☆ Premarket stocks: JPMorgan steals the show as banks lift curtain on earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All beat estimates: PNC (PNC) and Wells Fargo (WFM) by about 9%, Citi by around 13% and JPMorgan (JPM) by nearly 21%. PNC stock also felt the pressure. Before the Bell spoke with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, to discuss Friday’s big bank earnings and explain that stock discrepancy. I’ve always complained about banks reporting their quarterly earnings first because they’re extraordinarily idiosyncratic. Why did JPMorgan stock outperform its competitors?

☆ Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Big money investors pumped billions into buying up apartment buildings in the pandemic era. But fault lines have emerged for investors who paid top dollar for assets that depended on substantial rent increases and persistent low interest rates to achieve profitability. In those years, investors purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, according to MSCI — unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019. "It's early, but it's going to become a bigger story, especially if interest rates stay high and lending standards are tight," said Alan Todd, the head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities strategy at BofA Global Research. As these short-term debts come due, they will be difficult to swap with commensurately sized loans today, because of the falling values, higher interest rates, and lender caution.

☆ Goldman Sachs says these are its top picks heading into quarterly earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Earnings season is off and running and Goldman Sachs has named a host of stocks to buy ahead of the companies' quarterly reports. CNBC Pro combed through Goldman Sachs research to find stocks to own as first-quarter earnings kick off. They include Tesla, Boeing, CBRE , T-Mobile and Logitech. CBRE Group Goldman is standing by its buy rating on the real estate investment firm, even as lending standards tighten following the recent bank crisis. T-Mobile The wireless provider is Goldman's favorite growth stock, and favorite pick overall, the firm said in a recent earnings preview note to clients.

Wells Fargo executives detailed the bank's exposure to CRE at length during a conference call with analysts. Deposits at Wells Fargo fell 2% to $1.36 trillion at the end of March, compared with $1.38 trillion at the end of last year. "Both Wells Fargo and JP Morgan delivered very, very solid results, blowing past the expected earnings. Reuters GraphicsAverage loans in the bank's commercial banking division rose 15%, while commercial loans rose roughly 7% from a year earlier. Wells Fargo is also still working to contain the fallout from a scandal over its sales practices that led to hefty fines and an asset cap imposed by the Fed.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

"Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office," Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said on a call with analysts. Stress in the commercial real estate sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp. As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, California's CRE market has been hit hard. Citigroup and Wells Fargo declined to comment for this article.

☆ Fears mount that Europe's commercial real estate sector could be the next to blow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are questioning the health of the commercial real estate sector following a string of recent banking crises. Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesConcerns are mounting around the health of Europe's commercial real estate market, with some investors questioning whether it could be the next sector to blow following last month's banking crisis. Analysts at Citi now see European real estate stocks falling by 20%-40% between 2023 and 2024 as the impact of higher interest plays out. In a worst-case scenario, the higher-risk commercial real estate sector could plummet 50% by next year, the bank said. Pere Vinolas Serra, chief executive of Spanish real estate company Inmobiliaria Colonial and chairman of the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA), said the situation in Europe looks paradoxically strong.

☆ Landlords who bought thousands of apartments are facing a reckoning
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors showed outsize interest in apartment buildings during the pandemic. Rents and occupancy rates were rising, interest rates remained relatively low, and rental-property prices were climbing with no sign of letting up during a surge in housing demand. Laguna Point did not respond to a request for comment. Marc McDevitt, a senior managing director at Cred iQ, said it was possible Laguna Point had lost some, or even all, of its investment in the deal. While offices have been going through a paradigmatic shift as more workers do their jobs remotely, apartment buildings have experienced robust demand from tenants.

☆ Goldman Sachs downgrades this commercial real estate stock on difficult macro environment
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs thinks commercial real estate giant Cushman & Wakefield will have a tough time navigating the current macro environment. Goldman added that Cushman's interest expenses have also risen considerably as benchmark rates continue to climb. CWK YTD mountain Shares of Cushman and Wakefield have been under immense pressure so far this year, and Goldman Sachs doesn't expect a company recovery this year. Shares of Cushman are down nearly 21% in 2023, as the broader commercial real estate sector faces turmoil. Meanwhile, a tightening of liquidity will continue to pose a challenge to real estate investors, Goldman estimates, which will "more than offsets any tailwinds from potentially lower rates."

☆ US stocks face a 50% crash, a 'crypto apocalypse' is coming, and the economy is entering a 'doom loop.' Here are the 10 wildest predictions over the past quarter.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

From stocks to commercial real estate, several parts of financial markets are on shaky ground. Here are the 10 wildest predictions about asset prices and the economy over the past quarter. Grantham said the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, and other investments surged to unsustainable highs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crypto: an 'apocalypse' is coming for digital assets"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini isn't hopeful about the crypto industry. "I think it will spread into commercial real estate as banks become more reluctant to lend," Cooperman said.

☆ Here's why the Fed cutting interest rates is a double-edged sword for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Commercial real estate is widely seen as the next shoe to drop after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. A wave of CRE debt is coming due and will need to be refinanced at higher interest rates at a time when occupancy rates are low. Interest rate cuts from the Fed would provide some relief to the CRE space, but not if they come alongside a recession, according to Bank of America. Commercial real estate has been in a world of pain ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started. But could interest rate cuts from the Fed — which the market expects will happen in the second half of this year — help alleviate ongoing concerns in the commercial real estate market?

☆ Commercial real estate loan defaults will rise in a credit crunch but a crisis like 2008 is unlikely, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Defaults on commercial real estate loans will likely rise from a potential credit crunch, says UBS Global Wealth Management. Data from Trepp shows the delinquency rate for loans in the office market climbed in March. After the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, investors searching for signs of further stress in the banking system are seeing problems brewing in the commercial real estate market. Roughly $5.4 trillion in CRE debt is outstanding, with $1.2 trillion set to mature this year and in 2024, said UBS, noting the figures exclude multifamily commercial real estate. The office segment among commercial real estatement sectors only represents about 15% of the total value of commercial real estate, she said.

☆ FDIC announces sale process of former Signature Bank loan portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Monday announced the marketing process for the about $60 billion loan portfolio retained in receivership following the failure of Signature Bank. The FDIC expects to begin its marketing of the retained loan portfolio of the former Signature Bank later this summer, it said in a statement. The portfolio is comprised primarily of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, commercial loans and a smaller pool of single–family residential loans. Last week, Reuters reported that FDIC has retained advisers to sell the securities portfolios that the new owners of failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rejected. The FDIC said on Monday it has retained Newmark & Company Real Estate Inc as an advisor on the sale.

☆ Signs of pain as easy cash era ends are growing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and markets are feeling the pinch from the sharpest jump in interest rate in decades. Since late 2021, big developed economies including the United States, euro area and Australia have raised rates by almost 3,300 basis points collectively. Japanese, European and U.S. banks stocks, while off recent lows, are still well below levels seen just before SVB's collapse. Reuters Graphics2/ DARLINGS NO MOREAs the SVB collapse showed, stress in the tech sector can quickly ripple out across the economy. Reuters Graphics4/ CRYPTO WINTERHaving benefited from an influx of cash during the easy-money era, cryptocurrencies have felt pain as rates rose last year, then gained on recent signs that tightening could end soon.

☆ Europe's banks in 'better place' than U.S. in terms of commercial property risk - JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Europe's banks face less threat from some of the problems now showing in the commercial real estate markets than their U.S. counterparts, analysts at JPMorgan have said. That would accelerate a property sector downturn, aggravating underlying health concerns as it did during the 2007-08 global financial crisis and a number of other major crashes. Analysts at Capital Economist estimated this week that U.S. commercial property prices will slump a further 18-20%, having already fallen 4-5% from their peak in mid-2022. Lending to commercial property accounts for about 40% of all loans by smaller U.S. banks, defined by the Federal Reserve as being those outside the 25 largest by asset size. These banks account for about 70% of outstanding loans to the commercial real estate sector.

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