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Federal Reserve policymakers have been breathing easier lately regarding inflation, and that faith that they're closer to achieving their goal will get a key test Thursday. Specifically, the Labor Department's reading is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.2% and a monthly gain of just 0.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, following a much better than expected jobs report for September, Fed officials in recent days have indicated a likely more measured approach to cuts ahead. Details in Thursday's report will matter: Housing inflation has proven to be stubborn, though policymakers still expect lower rent renewals to feed into the data the months progress. The report hits just after the S & P 500 rose to a new record on Wednesday.
Persons: Dow Jones, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Dallas
Lisa Jolly pays less for her health insurance thanks to enhanced premium tax credits. The subsidies could expire next year, increasing the costs of health insurance for millions. "When I combine rising grocery costs with rising insurance costs, it just becomes almost unbearable." The subsidies expiration could pose difficulties for millions of AmericansThe results of the November election could determine the fate of the enhanced subsidies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 3.8 million people could become uninsured if the enhanced subsidies expire, according to Reuters.
Persons: Lisa Jolly, , Jolly, she's, Jessica, I'm, Jeanne Shaheen, Tammy Baldwin, Lauren Underwood, Cynthia Cox, Cox Organizations: Service, Business, Center, Budget, Jolly, Democratic, Senate, Republican, Congressional Budget Office, KFF, Congressional, Reuters Locations: Steubenville , Ohio, Pittsburgh, Washington
"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets are back to contending with rising oil prices, inflation possibly reaccelerating, fewer-than-expected rate cuts and potentially even a distant recession. The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and normalized in early September. It's not inconceivable, then, for investors who take stock in what the yield curve signals to panic a little.
Persons: IXIC, Brendan McDermid, That's, Jeff Cox, It's, David Roche, Bob Parker, – CNBC's, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Quantum, International Capital Markets Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Fear is the stock killer
  + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and normalized in early September. It's not inconceivable, then, for investors who take stock in what the yield curve signals to panic a little. But there's an undercurrent of fear that can perhaps run contrary to what some of those numbers are saying.
Persons: Michael M, That's, Jeff Cox, It's, David Roche, Bob Parker, – CNBC's, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Quantum, International Capital Markets Locations: New York City, U.S
Heavy traffic begins to back up on Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, U.S., October 7, 2024. Hurricane Milton's once-in-a-century potential could cause damage of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to leading Wall Street analysts. That would be on top of the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a potential record-breaking path of wreckage. "A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region." The extent of the potential is hard to pin down and will depend on timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly.
Persons: Hurricane Milton's, Hurricane Helene, Jefferies, Yaron Kinar, Myers, Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian, Ian Organizations: Hurricane, Street Locations: St, Petersburg , Florida, Hurricane Milton, U.S, Tampa, Fort Myers
Key swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan are still experiencing a high volume of mail-in and absentee voting. That has prompted multiple lawsuits in battleground states where Republicans are suing to challenge everything from whether mail-in ballot envelopes are properly sealed to whether they are postmarked correctly. After his 2020 loss, he has railed against mail-in voting, saying this summer it “isn’t working, it’s corrupt.” But he also emphasizes that every vote matters, including early voting and absentee ballots. The Republican National Committee and Republican Party of Pennsylvania filed a lawsuit to the state’s Supreme Court, seeking to end the mail-in ballot “notice-and-cure” procedures. Mail-in ballots wait to be processed on a table at the Wake County Board of Elections in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Persons: it’s, Donald Trump, ” Trump, Kamala Harris, , ” Paul Cox, there’s, Keith Weatherly, Greg Flynn, Joe Biden, Harris, Trump, Cox, Cisco Aguilar, Jocelyn Benson, Benson, , Pete Hoekstra, CNN’s Marshall Cohen Organizations: CNN, Trump, North Carolina State Board, Republican Party, Wake, Wake County, Republican National Committee, Republican Party of Pennsylvania, RNC, Cisco, Democratic, CNN Michigan Michigan, Republican, Michigan Republican Party Locations: North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Erie , Pennsylvania, Carolina, North Carolina, Wake County , North Carolina, Wake County, Raleigh , North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada In Nevada
Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.
Persons: Angus Mordant, payrolls, David Royal, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: HK UBI, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Albany, Latham , New York, , Thursday's
Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineOh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September's jobs number. That's perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday's close.
Persons: SPX, Paul Bersebach, payrolls, David Royal, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Medianews, Getty, CNBC, U.S . Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Labor Locations: Lake Forest , CA, , Thursday's
My experience made me see why Kleinfeld is so beloved in the wedding industry. Kleinfeld really is special. Crystal Cox/Business InsiderI got the bridal treatment from the moment my appointment began at Kleinfeld. I saw brides celebrating finding their dream dresses with their families, and their consultants seemed just as excited as they were. Moroschak told me she had the same experience when she started working at Kleinfeld.
Persons: Crystal Cox, Moroschak, I'm Locations: Kleinfeld
Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Stocks can’t defy October’s gravity
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] How to play the jobs report The U.S. jobs report for September, coming out later today, will indicate if the economy will be able to achieve a soft landing or is headed toward a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan break down how the S&P 500 could react , depending on the number of jobs added for September. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: AI's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Port, U.S, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Gulf Coast
watch nowThe U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. Strength in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy."
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.
Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S
CNBC Daily Open: October’s gravity bringing stocks down
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But gravity is catching up with stocks in October, which tends to be a volatile month. If the number of jobs added comes in higher than expected, markets are likely to react well. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: Michael M, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
CNN —The wreck of a US Navy destroyer known as the “Ghost Ship of the Pacific” has been found off the coast of California by undersea investigators. USS Stewart pictured arriving in San Francisco Bay in March 1946. The ship was damaged in combat against Japanese forces in 1942 and was captured by the enemy, becoming the Imperial Japanese Navy’s Patrol Boat No. “Soon, far-ranging Allied pilots began reporting the strange sight of an old American destroyer operating deep behind enemy lines,” reads the statement. “Whether lost in battle or sunk as a target, a warship remains sovereign property in perpetuity,” he said in the statement.
Persons: Stewart, Donald M, McPherson, fourstacker, , Samuel J, Cox, Organizations: CNN, US Navy, Navy, Air Sea Heritage Foundation, Search Inc, Cordell Bank National Marine, Heritage Command, Imperial Japanese, Naval, US, Military Locations: California, San Francisco Bay, Imperial, Kure, Japan, San Francisco
The idea behind a high-risk pool was to provide a safety net for people with pre-existing conditions struggling to find coverage. The high-risk pools, however, were critically underfunded, making monthly premiums for some patients double what they would be for a healthy individual, Cox said. “If you got into a high-risk pool, you might have had an exclusion on your coverage for six to 12 months,” Cox said. “When it doesn’t, it collapses.”Graves said that the U.S. could move back to a high-risk pool model but it would require “a massive amount of government subsidies to work.”“They would basically have to infuse the high-risk pool with enough subsidies to keep premiums affordable for people,” he said. “We had isolated pre-existing pools for the past 25 years, and they don’t work.”
Persons: Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, , , Arthur Caplan, Cynthia Cox, ” Cox, Cox, John A . Graves, Tim Walz, ” Walz, ” Graves, Caplan, ” Caplan Organizations: Republican, NYU Langone Medical, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Democratic, Minnesota Gov Locations: New York City, Nashville , Tennessee, U.S
Costco adds platinum bars to its precious metals lineup
  + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +1 min
Costco continues to chip away at the gold mine that is the precious metals market. The wholesaler is adding Swiss-made platinum bars to its selection. Costco on Wednesday announced the 1-ounce platinum bars, on sale for $1,089.99 on its website alongside its now-famed gold bars and silver coins. Gold bars launched at Costco in August 2023, and not even two months later were selling out within hours of a restock. Analysts at Wells Fargo reported in April that Costco was selling as much as $200 million worth of gold bars a month.
Persons: It’s, “ I’ve, , Richard Galanti, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Costco, Wednesday Locations: Swiss, Louisiana , Nevada, Puerto Rico, Wells
DETROIT — Stellantis’ U.S. new vehicle sales continued a yearslong free fall during the third quarter, despite CEO Carlos Tavares’ attempts to correct what he has called “arrogant” mistakes. Stellantis was expected to be the worst sales performer of major automakers during the third quarter. Auto industry forecaster Cox Automotive had projected a sales decline of roughly 21% for the carmaker. All of Stellantis’ brands except for its niche Fiat unit experienced sales declines in the third quarter, led by more than 40% reductions for Chrysler and Dodge. Stellantis’ performance compares with the overall U.S. new light-duty vehicle sales market, which increased 13% last year, according to federal data.
Persons: Carlos Tavares ’, Stellantis, Cox, Edmunds, Matt Thompson, Tavares Organizations: DETROIT, carmaker, Auto, Cox Automotive, U.S, Fiat, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, New York Stock Exchange, Stellantis, Fiat Chrysler, France’s PSA Groupe, United Auto Workers Locations: , U.S
Jeep vehicles are delivered to a dealership on June 20, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. DETROIT — Stellantis ' U.S. new vehicle sales during the third quarter continued a yearslong freefall despite CEO Carlos Tavares' actions to fix what he has called "arrogant" mistakes by the company. Stellantis was expected to be the worst sales performer of major automakers during the third quarter, and auto industry forecaster Cox Automotive had projected a sales decline of roughly 21%. Cox and fellow forecaster Edmunds expect third-quarter sales industrywide will be down roughly 2% compared with a year earlier. Stellantis' disappointing sales are the latest problem this week for the carmaker, which cut its 2024 profit margin forecast and has been hit with a recall involving popular plug-in hybrid electric Jeep models due to fire risks.
Persons: Carlos Tavares, Stellantis, Cox, Edmunds Organizations: DETROIT, Cox Automotive Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S
When buying healthcare coverage through the ACA marketplace, people can qualify for premium tax credits, which aim to make health insurance payments more affordable. According to KFF, these enhanced subsidies or premium tax credits caused a surge in enrollment in the ACA marketplace. AdvertisementThe election could shape the future of enhanced premium tax creditsThe November election could determine the future of the enhanced subsidies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the premium tax credits will cost taxpayers $335 billion over the next 10 years. Do you qualify for enhanced premium tax credits Please reach out at jtowfighi@businessinsider.com.
Persons: KFF, , Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Cynthia Cox, Sen, Jeanne Shaheen, Tammy Baldwin, Lauren Underwood, We've, Cox, Claire Heyison, CBPP, Harris, that's Organizations: Service, Affordable, American, Senate, Cox, ACA, Budget, Trump, Republican, Congressional, Reuters Locations: enrollees, KFF . Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Washington
Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August's disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring. While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as "solid" while noting that it has "clearly cooled" over the past year.
Persons: Dow Jones, switchers, Job, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Companies, Labor, Federal Reserve
President Biden said on Tuesday that his administration will be "monitoring for any price gouging activity" that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said "foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open." UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk's total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Acting Secretary Julie Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers."
Persons: Biden, Longshoremen, majeure, Daggett, Harold Daggett, Lars Jenson, Pete Buttigieg, Julie Su, Taft, Hartley, Buttigieg, Larry Lindsey, Su, Peter Friedmann, I've, nonfarm, Helene, switchers, they're, Jim Bianco, CNBC's, Peter Boockvar, Alan Baer, Steve Lamar, Taft Hartley, Lamar, CNBC's Jeff Cox Organizations: CMA, U.S, United States Maritime Alliance, Vespucci, Federal Reserve, Transportation, Labor, International Longshoremen's Association, UBS, Maersk, Federal Maritime Commission, ILA, Boeing, The Lindsey Group, Agriculture Transportation Coalition, Bianco Research, Bleakley Financial, USA, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Biden Administration, Locations: East, Gulf Coast, U.S, autoworkers
CNN —Election officials in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida are working quickly to ensure voters can still securely cast early ballots, despite the devastating storm impacts of Hurricane Helene that have in some cases left them without power, water and cell service. He also plans to request extending early voting until Election Day, since typically in Florida early voting goes until the Sunday before. In North Carolina, Bell is considering working with state emergency management and the North Carolina National Guard to set up temporary polling places if needed. “All of those ballots have tracking… North Carolina uses it to the fullest,” Mann said. Bell added that the state’s tracking system, BallotTrax, can help North Carolina voters determine where their ballot may be and whether it was lost in transit.
Persons: Hurricane Helene, Travis Doss, Jr, Doss, , Karen Brinson Bell, , ” Travis Hart, Bell, We’ve, ” Bell, Hart, Florida’s, Ian, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Dorian, “ We’ll, Brad Raffensperger, Raffensperger, Chris Mann, ” Mann, Mann, Paul Cox Organizations: CNN, Richmond County, North Carolina State Board, US Postal Service, , Hurricane, North Carolina National Guard, National Guard, Georgia’s, Election Innovation, Research Locations: Georgia , North Carolina, Florida, Hurricane, Augusta, Richmond, Georgia, North Carolina, Hyde County, , North, Carolina
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