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Investors are too optimistic about the near-term prospects of AI, Vanguard said. "This is double the annualized rate of the 1920s, when electricity lit up the nation," Vanguard wrote. AdvertisementBut Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis thinks expectations are too high, and says that stocks are overvalued even if the AI boom plays out as anticipated. For context, the S&P 500's trailing one-year earnings growth rate through the second quarter of 2024 was 10.9%, according to FactSet data. That's probably not going to happen, which means we're unlikely to experience an AI-driven economic boom in 2025," he said.
Persons: , Joe Davis, It's, Davis, BlackRock Organizations: Vanguard, Service
Airwallex, which was most recently valued at $5.6 billion and is backed by Tencent, has been tipped as one of many prominent fintech IPO candidates. Tencent -backed payments startup Airwallex has reached an annual revenue run rate of $500 million and will look to get ready for an initial public offering by 2026, CEO and co-founder Jack Zhang told CNBC in an exclusive interview. In the Americas region, Airwallex grew its revenue by more than 300% year-over-year, according to figures shared with CNBC. The U.K., Europe, and North America now account for more than 35% of Airwallex's overall transaction volumes, Zhang said. "In 2025, we will prepare everything, and we can decide what to do after 2026," he added.
Persons: Tencent, Jack Zhang, Zhang, Airwallex, it's Organizations: CNBC Locations: Singapore, Europe, North America, Americas, Airwallex
Donald Trump and Elon Musk called out the pain caused by high levels of inflation in recent years. Trump bemoaned that people can't afford groceries and savers have been "decimated" by rising prices. Musk blamed inflation on government overspending and pushed for deregulation to bring down costs. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementDonald Trump and Elon Musk lamented the brutal impact of rising prices in their X Spaces conversation on Monday.
Persons: Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Trump, Organizations: Service, Elon, Business
Last week, three online banks cut their 1-year CD rates, according to BTIG. Meanwhile, Synchrony slashed its online savings rate by 10 basis points to 4.65%. "We believe online banks are intentionally trying to shift customers toward savings rates, which are floating, over term rates," he said. The annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is 5.11%, as of Monday. With both high-yield savings and money market funds, the rates can fluctuate.
Persons: Marcus, Goldman Sachs, Sallie Mae, Synchrony, Jerome Powell, Vincent Caintic, Christine Benz, Benz, Winnie Sun, Cathy Curtis, Curtis Organizations: Federal, Morningstar, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Sun, Wealth Partners, CNBC, Money, Curtis Financial, Treasury Locations: Capital
However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank
It’s called a sector rotation, and it happens all the time as part of the natural course of a business cycle. The US economy is still pretty strong, growing at an annualized rate close to 3% in the most recent quarter. But it’s not as if Americans have stopped going to restaurants — they’re just being a bit more discerning when they do. Instead, they’re going to Texas Roadhouse, where they can sit down and have some service with their meal. Or they’re swinging through Chipotle, which saw sales shoot up 11% last quarter at stores open at least a year.
Persons: CNN Business ’, they’ve, that’s, it’s, they’re, , Mark Hoplamazian, Marriott’s, Disney, Hugh Johnston, — they’ve, Pete Werner, wouldn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, Texas, Disney, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, , Texas
Gross domestic product for the second quarter of this year came in better than expected, with the economy growing at an annualized rate close to 3%. Republicans and DemocratsIt’s not fair to lay all the blame for the state of the economy on one party when both have contributed. While neither can be fully blamed for the pandemic itself, their handling of it has had significant ramifications for the economy. Oh, here’s an idea, let’s just leave interest rates really high.” That’s not to say that politicians necessarily wanted to make Americans’ lives more difficult either. Yet all the calculus they perform to determine what the ideal interest rate level is at any given point in time is complicated by fiscal spending that’s entirely out of their control.
Persons: Democrats It’s, Trump, Biden, , It’s, , Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell “, “ He’s, let’s, ” That’s, don’t, they’ve, They’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Republicans, Democrats, MIT, State, , Massachusetts Democratic, Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, , Massachusetts
Shares of Disney fell Wednesday as concerns about attendance at its theme parks overshadowed streaming profits and better-than-expected headline results. The combined streaming business — encompassing Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — turned in its first-ever quarterly profit slightly ahead of schedule. Then, about two weeks ago, CNBC parent Comcast issued weak April-to-June results for its Universal theme parks business, which weighed on Disney's stock in that session . And, at this point, getting to profitability in the combined streaming business, which adds ESPN+ into the mix, was the biggest focus. "So, I do believe the parks business is in fundamentally good shape.
Persons: LSEG, , Jim Cramer, Jim, we're, Hugh Johnston, Johnston, Disney, Bob Iger, Jim Cramer's, Walt, Gary Hershorn Organizations: Disney, Revenue, ESPN, Comcast, Netflix, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, Hulu, CNBC, PepsiCo, Wall Street, ABC Network, Geographic, Management, Magic, Walt Disney World, Corbis, Getty Locations: U.S, India, Orlando , Florida
The cybersecurity software contender has more than 2,400 customers, including Maersk, Xerox and Mattel — in all, some 17% of the Fortune 500, according to the company. Cybersecurity company Abnormal Security said Tuesday it has raised $250 million in a Series D funding round that values the firm at $5.1 billion. With Microsoft surpassing $20 billion in cybersecurity revenue last year, competition has picked up among cybersecurity sector incumbents Cloudflare, Zscaler and Palo Alto Networks. Additionally, CrowdStrike veteran James Yeager was recently hired to head up public sector sales, an area that the email security vendor is targeting for growth. In March, Abnormal hired CFO Smita Sanadhya, a former executive at Microsoft Hong Kong and HP as well as startup Okta, which she helped to scale to a $2 billion public company.
Persons: Evan Reiser, Cloudflare, Reiser, Michael DeCesare, James Yeager, Smita Sanadhya, Jeff True Organizations: Twitter, Maersk, Xerox, Mattel, Fortune, Wellington Management, Greylock Partners, Menlo Ventures, Insight Partners, Security, Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, Software, Cloudflare, CNBC, Forescout Technology, Microsoft Hong Kong, HP, Abnormal Locations: Zscaler, Palo, Exabeam
Read previewThe July jobs report has thrown the economy's soft landing into question — and the Federal Reserve is taking the heat. AdvertisementGiven the jobs report, Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that "the soft landing for the US labor market is in peril." Advertisement"The problem is there's very few indications that this is the labor market we're going to stick around in," Bunker said. "It's clear that momentum of the labor market continues to be downward. "But I continue to stand by the idea that this is still part of the soft landing that people thought was not possible."
Persons: , it's, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Jerome Powell, Julia Pollak, It's, We're, Bunker, Powell, Harris, doesn't, Labor Julie Su, Su, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, North America, New Century Advisors, Fed, Biden, Labor
Snap shares plunge more than 20% on weak guidance
  + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Jonathan Vanian | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Evan Spiegel, co-founder and CEO of Snap Inc., during the Bloomberg Technology Summit in San Francisco on May 9, 2024. Snap shares fell more than 20% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported guidance for the third quarter that trailed analysts' estimates. The company expects adjusted earnings of $70 million to $100 million, trailing the $110 million average analyst estimate, according to StreetAccount. Pinterest shares tumbled this week after the company reported its latest earnings and provided third-quarter guidance that trailed analysts' estimates. YouTube advertising sales came in at $8.66 billion in the quarter, lower than analysts' expectations of $8.93 billion.
Persons: Evan Spiegel, Meta, Julia Brau Donnelly Organizations: Snap Inc, Bloomberg Technology Summit, LSEG Revenue, LSEG Global, Global, Google, YouTube Locations: San Francisco
Fed holds rates steady and notes progress on inflation
  + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday held short-term interest rates steady but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its target, which could open the door for future interest rate cuts. They also preserved a declaration that more progress is needed before rate reductions can happen. "In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." Price pressures off 2022 peakEconomic data of late has indicated that price pressures are well off the boil from their peak in mid-2022, when inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s. The Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, shows inflation around 2.5% annually, though other gauges indicate slightly higher readings.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Price Organizations: WASHINGTON – Federal, Gross
Certain areas of the stock market that benefit from lower rates could see a boost. AdvertisementInstead, plug some money into longer-duration bonds to lock in higher returns while they're still around, Milan said. In addition to tying down solid returns, longer-duration bonds could also appreciate when rates fall, he said. AdvertisementLook at rate-sensitive areas of the stock marketCertain areas of the stock market should also benefit from Fed rate cuts. But investors should keep their eye on the labor market the more the Fed cuts rates, Young Thomas said.
Persons: , Daniel Milan, they're, Ed Mahaffy, Mahaffy, Robert Phipps, Bernstein, Liz Young Thomas, Shmuel Shayowitz, Kristy Kim, Young Thomas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Cornerstone Financial Services, Treasury, ClientFirst Wealth Management, Corporate, Per Stirling Capital Management, Bloomberg, Bond, Index, Fed, Vanguard, ®, Schwab, Fidelity Locations: Michigan, Milan, TreasuryDirect, TomoCredit
Any September decision to lower the Fed's target range would be the first time interest rates have fallen since the hiking cycle began in March 2022. However, stocks fell soon after the rate cut in 2001 and 2007 by 13.5% and 20.6%, respectively, due to the dotcom crash and the global financial crisis. The current tightening episode is the seventh in the past 40 years. Historically, the Fed has cut rates because the U.S. economy was heading into a recession or experiencing a notable growth slowdown. While nominal rates peaked at 11.5% at the end of the 1983-84 episode, the current target range of 5.25%-5.50% is the highest this millennium.
Persons: Kevin Kliesen, Louis Organizations: CNBC, CNBC Pro, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: U.S
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.
Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, , Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel
It's safe to say that Americans can count on an interest rate cut pretty soon, but probably not this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision, and it's once again expected to hold rates steady. However, the FOMC's September meeting could finally bring Americans the relief they've been waiting for — CME FedWatch showed markets think it's all but certain the Fed will cut rates that month. Lower interest rates would make borrowing more affordable for consumers and businesses alike. "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates," they wrote.
Persons: it's, Claudia Sahm, Greg McBride, There's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sahm, Matt Colyar, September's, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Business, New Century Advisors, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Democratic, Moody's
Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Investors who are camped out in cash are nabbing sweet yields, but the clock is ticking on that attractive income. Money market fund assets totaled $6.14 trillion as of the week ended July 24, according to the Investment Company Institute . The largest money market funds are offering an annualized 7-day current yield of 5.12%, per the Crane 100 Money Fund Index. "Investors must also remember that the liquid securities held in money market funds have maturities capped at slightly over a year," he said. While these short-term bonds may be an attractive alternative to hiding out in cash, investors should avoid making them the lion's share of their fixed income holdings.
Persons: Daniel Siluk, Janus Henderson, Matthew Mish, Siluk Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Federal, UBS, SEC, BBB, Treasury Bond ETF
The Federal Reserve’s handling of inflation is souring the public on our economy, harming vulnerable Americans, slowing our fight against climate change — and hindering the fight against inflation itself. For the past several months, the Fed has resisted lowering interest rates in an environment that clearly demands lower rates. The Fed repeatedly stated that it would not lower rates until it had confidence the P.C.E. While the Fed keeps waiting, the pain keeps accumulating. There is also the damage that unnecessarily high interest rates are inflicting on our battle against climate change.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Fed Locations: U.S
New research identifies the 10 best-performing US stocks since 1926. Of 29,000 US stocks traded since 1926, most had negative returns, but top performers showed consistent gains. Of course, identifying the 10 best-performing stocks for the next 100 years is nearly impossible, as the paper's author points out. "The majority (51.6%) of these stocks had negative cumulative returns," finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University wrote. Bessembinder also observed that the 10 best-performing stocks delivered consistently modest annualized gains, reinforcing the slow and steady mantra championed by long-term investors.
Persons: Hendrik Bessembinder, , Bessembinder, Paul, Wilfredo Lee, ROSLAN RAHMAN Organizations: Service, Arizona State University, Pepsico, Cadillac, AP, IBM, Boeing, Getty, Dynamics, U.S, Army, Kansas City Southern, Anadolu Agency, Canadian Locations: Doral, Fla, Kansas
Since Harris kicked off her presidential campaign, there’s been a string of good news for the US economy. Harris will have Biden’s mostly strong economy to run on. By June 2021, Biden’s sixth month in office, the nation’s inflation rate jumped to more than 5%. After the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate hikes to a 23-year high to stamp out inflation, the economy — eventually — started to run at a slower pace. The Biden administration canceled $168 billion in student loan debt for 4.8 million Americans.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, there’s, Biden’s, , hasn’t, Evan Vucci, Eros Hoagland, Getty, Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, Stocks Organizations: CNN, White House, House, Federal, Trump, Biden, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce Department, of Labor Statistics, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, AFL, National Labor Relations Board, United Auto Workers, Union, AP Relief, American, ARPA, Medicare, University of North, Hill, Apple, Google, Federal Trade Commission, Department, FTC, Activision, Big Tech, Justice Department, Fed Locations: Ukraine, Van Buren Township , Michigan, University of North Carolina, America, Valley, Silicon Valley
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
Dexcom — Shares plummeted more than 40% after the medical device maker missed expectations for second-quarter revenue and offered weak full-year guidance for the measure. That exceeded analysts' expectations for earnings of $3.48 per share on revenue of $808 million, per LSEG. Norfolk Southern — Shares of the railroad operator gained 10% after a second-quarter earnings beat. Texas Roadhouse — The restaurant chain climbed 4.4% after second-quarter earnings topped expectations. Texas Roadhouse earned $1.79 per share, above the $1.64 per share estimate from analysts surveyed by LSEG.
Persons: Dexcom, Coursera, Newell Brands, Newell, Boston Beer, LSEG, Mohawk, Bristol Myers Squibb, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, amortization, Bitcoin, Alexander, Baldwin —, Alexander & Baldwin, Piper Sandler, Guggenheim, Sweetgreen —, Oppenheimer, Stifel, Yun Li, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: LSEG, Newell, Yankee, Wall, Boston Beer, Boston, Mohawk Industries, Bristol Myers Squibb, Bristol, Revenue, Norfolk Southern, Norfolk, Charter Communications, Southwest Airlines, Deutsche Bank, Southwest, Redburn, FactSet, FTAI Aviation, Texas, Texas Roadhouse, LSEG . Revenue, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: Norfolk
Dexcom — The medical device stock plummeted more than 36% after the company posted a second-quarter revenue miss. The company's $579 million revenue was also lower than the consensus estimate of $597 million. Coursera — The online course provider stock surged 26% after Coursera posted second-quarter revenue of $170 million, which exceeded the $164 million analysts had expected, according to LSEG. 3M — The industrials giant added nearly 7% after posting second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.93 and adjusted revenue of $6.02 billion. Charter's $13.69 billion revenue also exceeded the $13.59 billion analysts had expected.
Persons: George Kurtz, LSEG, Dexcom, Boston Beer, Coursera, Bristol Myers, Morgan Stanley, , Alex Harring, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound Organizations: Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, Devices, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, Boston Beer, Boston, Mohawk Industries, Mohawk, Bristol Myers Squibb, Bristol, Revenue, Norfolk Southern, Charter Communications
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point at 4.2563%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.4307% after falling by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the release of key inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. Those are some of the last key economic data releases before the Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy. The inflation figures come after economic data throughout the week have given mixed signals about the state of the economy.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, U.S, PMI
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