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☆ Bond vigilantes are 'saddling up.' Here's how concerned investors might take action over the ballooning federal deficit.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bond vigilantes are "saddling up" again as federal deficits balloon, said market veteran Ed Yardeni. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that." Now there are signs they are stirring again as bond yields continue to climb despite signs of cooling inflation. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that," he said. In a now-legendary commentary from 1983 titled "Bond Investors Are the Economy's Bond Vigilantes," Yardeni warned, "So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy, the bond investors will.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, e've, Yardeni, we've, James Carville, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Bond Organizations: Service, Treasury, Yardeni, Bloomberg, Federal, Republican Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Zero-day-options, weak technicals and China: Breaking down the market’s August headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"The S & P is not quite there, but we would be very surprised if it doesn't follow the NDX's lead." On top of that, some are worried that another real estate crisis in China may be brewing. "It's been almost two years since China Evergrande Group, once China's largest real estate developer, shocked the financial markets by defaulting on $340 billion in debt. Since then, the Chinese real estate market has been in a serious slump," wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Investment in real estate fell 8.5% y/y during the first seven months of this year."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, 0DTE, Technicals, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, It's, Ed Yardeni, we're, Sarat Sethi, Johnson, Sethi, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq, China Evergrande Group, Yardeni, Investment, U.S, JPMorgan Locations: China, U.S, Freeport, McMoRan, Haleon

☆ NewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson: Keep long-term goals in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson: Keep long-term goals in sightCameron Dawson, chief investment officer for NewEdge Wealth, Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, andEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market seasonality and market laggards.

Persons: Wealth's Cameron Dawson, Cameron Dawson, Joe Terranova, andEd Organizations: Virtus Investment Partners, Yardeni Research

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus' Joe Terranova and Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus' Joe Terranova and Ed YardeniCameron Dawson, chief investment officer for NewEdge Wealth, Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, andEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market seasonality and market laggards.

Persons: NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus, Joe Terranova, Ed Yardeni Cameron Dawson, andEd Organizations: Virtus Investment Partners, Yardeni Research

☆ We're overall looking at a disinflationary train, says Yardeni Research president
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're overall looking at a disinflationary train, says Yardeni Research presidentEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Yardeni's disinflation outlook, the odds of a rate cut next year, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Premarket stocks: Does it matter whether the Federal Reserve hikes or pauses rates in September?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in July to the highest level in 22 years, Wall Street’s focus is on whether September will bring another rate hike. But does it really matter whether the Fed raises or pauses rates next month? Before the Bell: Does it matter whether the Fed raises rates in September by another quarter point or holds steady instead? And, that earnings can grow even in an environment where interest rates are back to levels that they have been in for the past couple of decades. Year-over-year comparisons should improve, but I think investors want to see that.

Persons: Bell, Ed Yardeni, they’ve, Moody’s, they’re, We’ve, Fitch, CNN’s Kathleen Magramo, Women Jan Tinetti, Tinetti, Read, CNN’s Olesya Dmitracova, Darren Morgan, ”, Jonathan Moyes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Employers, Traders, Yardeni, Women, Labour, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Gross, National Statistics, Wealth Locations: New York, New Zealand

☆ The Fed can take the rest of the year off as inflation is crumbling and there's no recession in sight, market vet Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can take the rest of 2023 off, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. The US may be able to avoid a recession after all as the economy enters a "rolling recovery," he added. Inflation is dropping, and there's no sign that the economy will tip into the recession investors have fretted about, according to Ed Yardeni. But if shelter prices were excluded from the July CPI, inflation has already back down to 2%, Yardeni said. And shelter inflation has shown signs of falling in recent months, which will eventually reflect in the official inflation statistics, Yardeni said.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, we've Organizations: Service, Yardeni, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Ed Yardeni: No recession in sight, the economy is in a rolling recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni: No recession in sight, the economy is in a rolling recoveryEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his takeaways from July's CPI report.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, CPI

☆ These 16 cities offer the cheapest first year of homeownership in the US when considering down payments, taxes, and closing costs, according to Point2
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But according to Point2, 16 cities including Detroit offer first-year homeownership costs under $80K. First-year costs include down payments, mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, and closing costs. In a recent analysis of the 100 largest US markets, the firm identified the 16 cities with the cheapest first year of homeownership after considering the average cost of a 20% down payment, closing costs, property taxes, monthly mortgage payments, and homeowners' insurance. In all 16 of the cities, the first year's cost of homeownership was under $80,000. We've listed the cities below starting with the least expensive, and have included Point2's price breakdown of each item noted above.

Persons: It's, homebuying —, Point2 Organizations: National Association of Realtors, homebuying Locations: Point2, Detroit

☆ These 5 bearish arguments have yet to derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are five major bearish arguments for an imminent recession and a falling stock market. Here's why each of the bearish arguments have yet to put a dent in the stock market rally. According to Wednesday note from market veteran Ed Yardeni, all of the bearish arguments supporting a stock market sell-off and eventual recession have fallen flat, and that means there could be more gains ahead. These are the five bearish arguments for the stock market, and why they haven't yet derailed the current rally, according to Yardeni. "This conclusion is confirmed by Fed data on the ownership of deposits plus money market funds by generation cohorts."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, LEI, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, ATA, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Yardeni

☆ Looming inflation report could hold an unpleasant surprise for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Stock-market investors rarely see a recession coming despite warning signals. As all the classic alarm bells ring again, this time is no different, experts say — setting investors up to get crushed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics

☆ One of the most accurate recession predictors is only half right. Here's what the yield curve is actually saying, according to a market veteran
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One of the most accurate recession predictors is only half right, market veteran Ed Yardeni told Insider. The yield curve has been inverted for more than a year, but it doesn't mean a recession is ahead. For years, he has been saying the inverted yield curve is an indicator for a process, not a recession. In 2019, he coauthored a paper titled "The Yield Curve: What Is It Really Predicting?" What does the inverted yield curve say?

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Yardeni Research, Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Relentless U.S. stock rally faces Fed test
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. "Bearish investors have had to capitulate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000. However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market.

Persons: Cliff Corso, Jonathan Golub, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Eric Freedman, Goldman Sachs, Sunitha Thomas, We've, Christopher Tsai, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management, Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, Fundstrat Global, Yardeni Research, National Association of Active Investment, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Consumers, Northern Trust, Tsai, MSCI Inc, Zoetis Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jonathan Golub of

☆ Investors will be disappointed by Bernstein’s estimated stock market returns for the next decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Elevated stock market valuations suggest that returns for investors over the next decade could be meager, according to a Bernstein analysis. The Shiller PE or CAPE — that is, cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio — sets the market multiple based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the course of a decade. "The Shiller PE has historically been a good predictor of very long-run 10-year forward equity returns," the Bernstein analysts wrote. However, the firm notes that investors shouldn't forego stock market exposure even if returns are likely to be lower. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said market valuations could be resetting as Big Tech companies powered by artificial intelligence dominate the market.

Persons: Bernstein, Sarah McCarthy, Mark Diver, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Equity, Yardeni Research, Big Tech Locations: Tuesday's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The long-awaited recession might not arrive
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Waiting for earningsU.S. stocks made slight gains Monday, but trading volume was lower than average as investors braced for second-quarter earning. Merger bonanzaWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Activision Blizzard from 6.7% last year to 1.9% yesterday, according to a securities filing released Monday. Buffett previously revealed Berkshire added to its initial Activision stake in a bet the deal would close and cause shares to rise.

Persons: Antonio Guterres, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Jim Jordan, Mark Zuckerberg, Ed Yardeni Organizations: CNBC, Initiative, Activision Blizzard, Microsoft, Activision, Twitter, Yardeni Research Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Berkshire

☆ Inflation has been 'much more transitory than persistent', says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has been 'much more transitory than persistent', says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, market outlook, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Ed Yardeni sees S&P 500 rising to a record as high as 5,400 within the next 18 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes we are already in a new bull market and the S & P 500 could potentially climb nearly 20% in the next 18 months in the cycle. His target range represents a gain of between 6.5% and 19.9% from the S & P 500's Friday close of 4,505.42. "I've been thinking for quite some time that we're in a recession, but I argued that it's a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 Yardeni praised the U.S. central bank for bringing down inflation effectively. The S & P 500 has jumped more than 17% this year after scoring its best first half since 2019.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, meltdowns Organizations: Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve, Street, Deutsche Bank, Wall Street, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Why declaring victory over inflation too soon may be a mistake for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Natalie Rose Goldberg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The market is fully expecting another interest rate hike from the Fed in July, after it skipped a rate hike in June. For the Fed, ideal inflation is in the target range of 2%. But he is more encouraged about the economy avoiding recession, which recent economic history said would not be possible. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed her commitment to lowering inflation even further on "Squawk on the Street" last week. "It's really too early to say that we can declare victory on inflation.

Persons: Tom Werner, Jerome Powell, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Paul McCulley, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Lee, Liz Young, Roger Ferguson, Ferguson, Hugh Johnston, they've, CFOs, Milton Friedman's, Pimco, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Mary Daly Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, CME Fed, Yardeni, Dow Jones, Dow, PepsiCo, CNBC, Francisco Fed Locations: U.S, Georgetown

☆ Goldman Sachs: These 17 stocks could earn much more than the rest of Wall Street expects following a strong second half for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs is bullish about stocks in the second half of 2023. Here are 17 stocks with dramatically higher 2024 earnings estimates from Goldman than the consensus. Instead of simply watching to see whether corporate profits continue to decline this quarter, Goldman Sachs is already keeping a pulse on next year's earnings growth. Unlike most of its peers, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to build on its gain, though its year-end price target of 4,500 suggests near-term upside will be hard to come by. David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that just 33% of large-cap mutual fund managers beat their benchmark in the first half.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Goldman, Research, Credit Suisse

☆ This time the Fed may have actually gotten it right on inflation, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis time the Fed may have actually gotten it right on inflation, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the latest CPI report, what is ahead for Federal Reserve policy and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve

☆ Real-estate guru Brandon Turner shares the low-risk investing approach his company is now taking amid housing market uncertainty — and which strategies he's avoiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He's still bullish on real-estate investing as a strategy to build wealth. But he's taking a buy-and-hold approach right now, and not taking out risky loans. It's hard to imagine anyone who hails the virtues of real-estate investing more than Brandon Turner. He again sang the praises of real-estate investing as a method for building generational wealth, and brushed off calls for a housing market crash that have grown louder since last year. But that's not to say Turner is particularly bullish on every investing approach right now.

Persons: Brandon Turner, He's, Turner, David Greene, that's, Skylar Olsen, Anne Curry, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Credit

☆ Rolling recession to rolling recovery? Ed Yardeni says a unique factor has cushioned the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. economy has shifted from a "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Instead, it has experienced what the head of Yardeni Research calls a "rolling recession" — various industries being hit at different times since early last year. In addition, one unique factor influencing the U.S. economy is the large-scale fiscal stimulus, like the Inflation Reduction Act, implemented before an actual recession, according to Yardeni. When questioned about the strength of this recovery, Yardeni confirmed that he'd doubled his growth forecast for the second quarter. Don Mason | Tetra Images | Getty ImagesThe U.S. economy has shifted from a "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, CNBC's, he'd, Don Mason Organizations: Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, Goods, Consumers, Deutsche Bank Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. economy has shifted from a 'rolling recession' to a 'rolling recovery,' market veteran Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy has shifted from a 'rolling recession' to a 'rolling recovery,' market veteran Ed Yardeni saysEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said he expects sticky inflation in services will fall, similar to goods inflation, without requiring the Federal Reserve to push the economy into a recession.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: U.S, Yardeni, Federal Reserve

☆ US economy's 'rolling recession' turning into 'rolling expansion,' says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUS economy's 'rolling recession' turning into 'rolling expansion,' says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Yardeni's evolving views on the economy over the last few months, the current bull to bear ratio and its implications, and the possibility of a rolling expansion with weak credit markets.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

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