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☆ Here's why China's weak economy is good news for the US stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is weak and suffering from a demographic implosion, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. But that's good news for the US stock market as it should lead to continued disinflation and a step down in geopolitical tensions. "It would be in China's interest to attract more foreign direct investment to shore up its economy," Yardeni said. And the recent decline in China's property values and stock market is especially painful for an aging population. The combination of continued disinflation and a reduction in geopolitical tensions is ultimately good news for the US stock market, according to Yardeni.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, aren't Organizations: Service Locations: China, Taiwan

☆ The Fed is probably done hiking rates. Cuts are still far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve likely won’t raise interest rates again during its current tightening cycle, thanks to a cooldown in inflation. Interest rates are at a 22-year high after the Fed last March began its punishing pace of hikes in a bid to tame wayward inflation. Traders are now virtually certain that the Fed will hold rates steady at its December policy meeting and won’t hike again this cycle, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Of course, one month’s data doth not a trend make. Traders are anticipating rate cuts won’t start before next March, and see May as more likely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Price, Sharp, Jerome Powell, Yung, Yu Ma, Joseph Brusuelas, Sephora, Parija Kavilanz, Read, Rishi Sunak, Hanna Ziady, “, ” Sunak, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, “, LPL, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Research, BMO Wealth Management, Traders, Investors, RSM US, CNN, National Statistics Locations: New York

☆ It's hard to see a recession looming with the resilient labor market, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's hard to see a recession looming with the resilient labor market, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his S&P targets and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Ed Yardeni says the ‘bond vigilantes’ have retreated, so the S&P 500 can rally to 4,600
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In Yardeni's estimation, the bear market ended in October 2022, and the stock market has been in a bull market since, calling the August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Yardeni is credited with coining the term " bond vigilantes " in the 1980s. US10Y 1M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated from its late-October highs. "We are expecting that both the bond yield and the oil price will stabilize around current levels. During the latest stock market correction, the Bond Vigilantes saddled up and were riding high.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Santa Claus Organizations: Yardeni, Treasury, Bond Vigilantes Locations: Santa

☆ Analysis: The US presidential election is next year. Here’s what that could mean for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The US presidential election is less than a year away. Wall Street has a laundry list of uncertainties that it worries could threaten the current stock rally, including the upcoming presidential election. But history shows that stocks typically gain during the fourth year of presidential terms. The S&P 500 has gained 6.2% on average during the fourth year of presidential terms since 1932, according to Yardeni Research. That’s below the 13.5% gain the index has averaged during the third year of presidential terms since 1931.

Persons: ’, There’s, Darrell Crate, ”, Goldman Sachs, Joe Abbott, Abbott, Loretta Mester, Bryan Mena, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hawkish, Mester, Heidi Gartland, “, ” Gartland, Read, Niron, Peter Valdes, Niron Magnetics, Jonathan Rowntree Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, The New York Fed, Management, Investors, Research, Yardeni Research, “, CNN, Cleveland Fed, Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Regional, Bank, General Motors, China General Motors Locations: New York, East, Russia, Ukraine, Wisconsin, China, Minnesota

☆ The bond vigilantes 'aren't necessarily done' voicing their concerns, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond vigilantes 'aren't necessarily done' voicing their concerns, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the bond market and Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, oil markets, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, Treasury

☆ An ideal scenario for the stock market is taking shape as the economy looks set to keep growing without lifting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy can still grow without driving inflation, and that would be an ideal scenario for the stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe latest economic data suggests a type of Goldilocks scenario is about to play out in both the economy and stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisement"We think the economy started a productivity growth boom in early 2016 that was interrupted by the pandemic. This year, our growth is being driven by productivity... productivity driven growth brings inflation down, it's good for earnings, but it does drive yields up. For evidence of a surge in productivity growth, he pointed to the fact that job hirings have slowed this year compared to last year, but GDP growth has surged.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Yardeni, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Service

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: The stock market may have just bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market may have just bottomed, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni highlighted that the S&P 500 found support at its rising trend line that dates back to the March 2020 low. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur chart of the day is from market veteran Ed Yardeni, which plots the S&P 500 since 2018 and highlights a key rising trend line that could be acting as support for the stock market. Yardeni pointed to this chart in a Wednesday note to clients and argued that the stock market may have just bottomed. If the stock market did bottom this week, as Yardeni suggests, it would play into the bullish seasonals that typically drive the stock market higher into the end of the year.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Fed, LPL Research

☆ Expect the market to chop around into year-end, says John Hancock's Emily Roland
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect the market to chop around into year-end, says John Hancock's Emily RolandEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the markets heading into year-end and their 2024 outlook.

Persons: John Hancock's Emily Roland Ed Yardeni, Emily Roland, John Organizations: Yardeni Research, John Hancock Investment Management

☆ Spiking Treasury yields are triggering pain in stocks. 3 experts discuss the renewed threat of bond vigilantes and what else could move markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are now tasked with trying to understand where bond yields go next, and what the drivers of those yields would be. Forget about the technical charts, he says — they are not driving the bond market right now. While Fed policy has consequences for the bond market, investors drive the yield, Johnson said. That means trying to predict where bond yields will settle will be very hard. But fear in the stock market could translate to greed in the bond market as investors flee to safety.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Gordon Johnson, —, Johnson, Ed Yardeni, Kevin Zhao, Liz Truss, Ray Dalio, Fitch, Eric Leve, Michael Gayed, there's, Russell, Leve, hasn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, GLJ Research, UBS Asset Management, CNBC, Greenwich Economic, Tidal Financial, P Bank ETF, BlackRock Locations: Bridgewater, Greenwich

☆ Treasury bond auctions may eventually fail because investors will see federal deficits as too unsustainable, Columbia finance professor warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Ballooning government deficits could lead to failed Treasury auction soon, a Columbia Business School professor said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "One of the possibilities that's driving bond yields higher is the concerns about inflation risk related to the cumulative effect of debt," Calomiris said in a CNBC interview on Monday. Investors, who are increasingly worried about mounting US deficits, choose to keep their money out of Treasurys.

Persons: —, Charles Calomiris, Calomiris, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Service, CNBC, Fitch

☆ The economy has proven it can live with 4.5-5% bond yields, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy has proven it can live with 4.5-5% bond yields, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, earnings season so far, Treasury yields, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Moody's shares its top 10 cities for home-price appreciation over the next 3 years — including 5 with median prices under $170,000 — with home values on a national basis set to fall further
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But the housing market isn't necessarily locked into a period of sustained high home prices, at least yet, according to housing-focused Moody's economist Matthew Walsh. Walsh told Insider on Thursday that he expects national home prices to fall by around another 4% by the end of the current cycle. Below, we've listed the 10 markets where Walsh sees the highest upside from August 2023 through August 2026. While Walsh is most bullish on these markets, he said the appreciation wouldn't be flashy. We've also listed the current median home price in each market, according to Redfin data.

Persons: Matthew Walsh, Walsh, We've Organizations: National, National Association of

☆ Treasury bond auctions have been ugly lately, and weak demand could be a 'canary in the coal mine'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A recent string of Treasury auctions has suffered from weak investor demand. But Ed Yardeni thinks yields are already at the right levels to start bringing back demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementA string of recent Treasury bond auctions saw a major slump in investor demand, and that could be a harbinger of a trend that sends yields higher, strategists said. But market veteran Ed Yardeni told Insider that bond yields could already be at the right levels to bring back demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe also noted that while the recent auctions didn't go well, bond yields didn't shoot to new highs.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Bill Ackman, Larry Fink, Bill Gross, Yardeni, Penn Wharton Organizations: Securities, Service, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Treasury

☆ The Fed is done raising interest rates, says Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is done raising interest rates, says Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss CPI inflation data, the outlook for future rate hikes, and more.

Persons: Yardeni, Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Treasury bond auction runs into weak demand amid fears that soaring US debt will overwhelm Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Treasury bond auction saw weak demand on Thursday amid fears soaring US debt will overwhelm Wall Street. The US sold $20 billion of 30-year bonds, but dealers had to take up more supply after investors balked. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementA Treasury bond auction Thursday saw weak demand, adding to growing alarms that the explosion in the supply of US debt could overwhelm Wall Street.

Persons: —, It's, reinvest, Ed Yardeni, Louis Organizations: Treasury, US, Service, Financial Times, Fed, Louis Fed

☆ Forget Gen Zers and Taylor Swift concerts. It's boomers who are flashing their dollars.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The hope of avoiding a recession in the US heated up this year despite interest rates skyrocketing over the past 18 months. They also have more of a buffer than from the economic impact of inflation and higher interest rates than younger generations. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile high interest rates and soaring prices for homes in recent years are terrible for young buyers, they are increasing the wealth of older Americans. Lance McMillan/Toronto Star via Getty ImagesMeanwhile, higher rates are helping older Americans grow their wealth in other ways. So older Americans who, in the past, would have been forced to sacrifice higher returns for safer investments can now get both.

Persons: boomers, —, Taylor Swift, Tim Robberts, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, they'll, they've, Lance McMillan, Neil Howe, demographer, Howe Organizations: Boomers, Service, Census Bureau, Labor, Images, Yardeni Research, New, Toronto Star, Getty, Treasury Locations: New York

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ How high could interest rates go? Where analysts see the 10-year yield headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit its highest level in 16 years, but a host of economists and money managers and investors expect it can go still further. If the 10-year yield broke out convincingly above 5.25%, Ginsberg said it could next move above 7% — although he'd be "shocked" to see yields that high. He assumes that even a 10-year yield above 5% will cause something to go wrong in one corner of the market or the economy. "It's gonna be a challenging environment for investors, for stock investors," Ginsberg said. However, he expects the 10-year yield could stabilize around 4.5% and 5%.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Russell, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ray Dalio, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Yardeni, Research, Apple, Nvidia, U.S ., Bridgewater Associates Locations: Stockton

☆ Ed Yardeni explains why the bond vigilantes aren't happy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni explains why the bond vigilantes aren't happyEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current state of the bond market, the recent 'disorderly' selling of bonds, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, aren't Organizations: Yardeni Research

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expectations around where the Federal Reserve will set its own key borrowing rate, increased slightly to 5.129%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last up just over 9 basis points to 4.781%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose as high 4.874%, also the highest since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates and as an investor confidence barometer, on Tuesday surged to its highest level since 2007. "Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we're watching to see if the high-yield market is next," he added.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, it's, Loretta Mester, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Ed Yardeni expects 2024 to be a strong growth year
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni expects 2024 to be a strong growth yearEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the state of the economy in this high-rate environment and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ A 32-year market vet warns a recession is still on the way as the Fed's jumbo rate hikes continue to work their way into the economy — and shares 3 reasons why stocks are overvalued by 35%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.

Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed

☆ Inflation is the number one issue for me, says Yardeni Research president
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is the number one issue for me, says Yardeni Research presidentEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Yardeni's worried about in the economy, whether the U.S. government should be worried about bond vigilantes, and the best-case scenario for the economy.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Baby boomers are big winners from the Fed's policies - but younger generations are 'screwed,' market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Baby boomers are the big winners from the Federal Reserve's policies, Larry McDonald said. Years of low interest rates boosted asset prices, and now they can earn 5% from Treasury bills. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's X post made the point that higher rates have lifted yields on Treasury bills to more than 5%. As a result, baby boomers have the option to cash out their profits, invest in short-term government debt, and collect a solid, guaranteed return. While baby boomers are under fire for hoarding wealth, their spending in retirement could prove crucial in sustaining the economy and preventing a recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni argued this summer.

Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Lehman, He's, boomers, Baby, That's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, millennials, Ukraine

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