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☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a news conference following the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPresident Christine Lagarde noted it was impossible to determine the future rate path amid "completely elevated" uncertainty stemming from market ructions. "Given financial instability risks, there's growing uncertainty on future ECB actions beyond this pre-signalled rate hike," said Daniele Antonucci, chief economist and macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said he was sticking to a call for a 4% peak ECB rate. "Unless this turns into a macroeconomic crisis then we are ripe for a sell-off and a repricing of rate hike expectations," he said.

When bond yields fall, their price rises. But asset managers that run large government bond portfolios still expect bond yields to rise and say they are selling into the rally, expecting the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve stay hawkish. Legal and General Investment Management (LGIM), the UK-based $1.6 trillion asset manager, is also reducing its exposure to government bonds, taking profits following the bond rally. As selling gripped bank shares on Wednesday, money market pricing suggested traders were leaning towards a 25 basis-point Fed rate increase next week. "We expect rates to rise," agreed Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at $1.1 trillion U.S. asset manager Nuveen.

The ECB has contacted banks on its watch to quiz them on their exposure to the struggling Swiss lender, two supervisory sources told Reuters. Money market pricing suggested traders now saw less than a 20% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at Thursday's scheduled ECB meeting. That's down from as high as 90% at the start of the session , when a source-based story saying ECB policymakers were leaning towards a half-percentage-point rate hike was published. While rapidly rising interest rates across major economies have raised concern about potential pressure points, many analysts still expected a large ECB hike given high inflation. Pictet's Ducrozet said the ECB could also ease collateral rules for banks, though not as much as the Federal Reserve.

☆ Black Sea grain talks continue as Russia seeks 60-day renewal
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Vessels are seen as they await inspection under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, in the southern anchorage of the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey December 11, 2022. Since Russia and Ukraine signed the U.N.-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative in Turkey on July 22, millions of tonnes of grain and other food products have been exported from Ukrainian ports, helping lower global food prices from record highs. Russia on Monday suggested allowing the deal to be renewed for 60 days, half the term of the previous renewal. It was not immediately clear how the deal could be extended for half of the previous duration of 120 days. The United Nations would not be drawn on confirming whether the deal would continue for 60 days or 120 days.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields dropped more than 50 basis points, much more than a drop of 37 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

Markets remained fragile, with European bank stocks tumbling over 5% on Monday and U.S. banks set to open lower (.SX7P). Markets also moderated their view on UK rates and were pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a 25 bps hike when the Bank of England meets next week. Goldman Sachs said on Sunday the banking stress meant it no longer expected the Fed to hike rates next week. "It's not going to want to go clattering in with another 50 (bps hike) and see some other financial institution getting hosed." A new Fed bank funding scheme aimed at addressing some of Silicon Valley Bank's apparent problems with losses in its bond portfolio is expected to further help with stability for banks and bonds.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields were last down over 40 basis points, much more than a drop of 24 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) dropped 6.6% on Thursday and was set to open lower again on Friday. The crisis at SVG was feeding growing investor concerns that banks will be vulnerable to the rising cost of money. In an unusual step, Commerzbank, one of Germany's largest banks, issued a statement, playing down any threat from SVB, saying it did not see "a corresponding risk for us". "The market is treating this as a potential contagion risk," said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING in London. A spike in interest rates has led to a sell-off in bonds, leaving banks exposed to potential losses on the securities they hold.

☆ VIEW SVB meltdown triggers global drop in bank shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 10 (Reuters) - The failure of troubled tech-lender SVB Financial Group's (SIVB.O) efforts to raise capital through a stock sale rippled through global markets on Friday and sent shares of many banks tumbling. read moreShares of SVB, which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, were halted on Friday after tumbling as much as 66% earlier in premarket trading. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) dropped 0.63% on Friday after a 6.6% decline on Thursday, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) was down 2.3%. Europe's STOXX banking index (.SX7P) fell almost 5%, tracking toward its biggest one-day percentage slide since June 2022. If investors are concerned about deposit flow, why punish the stocks who have sticky, operational retail checking deposits?

[1/2] European Central Bank and SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) logos are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. SVB, which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, was not immediately available for comment. "Silicon Valley Bank is shedding light on vulnerabilities across the US banking sector, primarily in the bond holdings that many large institutions hold," said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay. “The current liquidity run on Silicon Valley Bank is having a knock-on effect on the wider banking system," said Rick Seehra, Prudential Lead at Bovill. But banking experts said SVB's issues were unique and the worries about the broader sector were not warranted.

☆ SVB collapse a sign of pain coming from end of easy-cash era
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and its impact is only just starting to felt by world markets yet to see the end of the sharpest interest rate hiking cycle in decades. European banks slid on Friday after JPMorgan (JPM.N) and BofA (BAC.N) shares fell over 5% on Thursday. BofA noted European banks' bond holdings have not grown since 2015. And with defaults rising, the focus is on the less visible private debt markets, which have ballooned to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets started cracking last year and house prices will fall further this year.

CASE FOR A SWIFT RETREAT1/ ENERGY PRICESTumbling energy prices are pulling down headline inflation. U.S. inflation rose 6.4% in January, the smallest rise since October 2021, from a 9.1% high last June. Instead, corporate profits have accounted for the lion's share of domestic euro zone price pressures since 2021, ECB data shows. A recent IMF study going back to the 1960s found that only in a small minority of cases where wages and inflation rose together for several quarters did sustained inflation result. The chief executive of Gunvor, a top oil trader, sees oil prices rising in the second half of 2023 on renewed Chinese demand.

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

☆ Wall St pares gains, Treasury yields turn higher ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.

☆ Wall Street gains, Treasury yields soften ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.

☆ Analysis: Traders relaxed as ECB starts running down massive bond holdings
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

So far traders are optimistic, comforted by an initially small pace of bond sales and a predictable structure. U.S. and UK central banks have started QT, although the Bank of England was forced to delay its plans following turmoil in British bond markets last year. said DZ Bank's head of government bond trading Dalibor Jarnevic. If APP reinvestments stop before the end of 2024, ECB market presence would rely on reinvestments under the more flexible Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Whatever the size or pace, traders are seeking opportunities as the ECB makes the shift to QT.

That has pushed 10-year bond yields across the euro area to levels last seen during the bloc's 2011-2012 debt crisis , . "Equity markets appear expensive when considering the possibility of prolonged higher rates." Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re, added that rising government bond yields also made risk assets relatively less attractive. And while government bonds were seen vulnerable to further selling, higher yields are still viewed as a buying opportunity. "In sovereign markets now, 10-year German bond yields are north of 2.70%.

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ Banks pile into euro zone bond sales as rates shoot up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Heavy central bank buying had kept borrowing costs and volatility low for years, so the key question now is who steps in as the ECB steps out. They were the top buyers in the European Union's debt sale this month, buying almost 50% of a seven-year bond and 35% of a 20-year bond. Banks also took 39% of an Italian 20-year debt sale in January, while fund managers took 25%. In a 16-year debt sale last year, banks bought 29%. Bank treasuries took 30% of a 30-year Belgian debt sale in February, versus 10% a year ago.

☆ INEOS Quattro to raise 750 mln euros from loans, pay dividend
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Chemicals company INEOS Quattro is planning to raise 750 million euros ($794 million) from the sale of two loans, according to a lead manager memo seen by Reuters on Friday. The seven-year financing - which comprises a euro loan and a minimum $400 million loan - will fund a dividend payment and the rest will be used for general corporate purposes, the memo said. INEOS Quattro is owned by global chemical company INEOS, which is among the bidders for Manchester United. INEOS wants to fund an offer without external financing, but could consider bringing in a minority equity partner, Reuters reported earlier this week, citing a source. JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are leading the new loan sale for INEOS Quattro, according to the memo.

But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. World stocks hit one-month lows on Wednesday, while Wall Street had its worst day of the year so far on Tuesday. "We've gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight," said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. Bond prices fall, and yields rise, when expectations of higher rates on cash make their fixed interest payments less appealing. Reuters GraphicsEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

☆ Recession alarm bells are ringing, but (much) less loudly than before
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Feb 10 (Reuters) - The rapid reopening of China's economy, plunging European gas prices and cooling U.S. inflation suggest a global recession may not be as deep and protracted as feared just weeks ago. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook and a painful euro area recession that was once seen as all-but-certain is less of a concern. Citi sees a 30% chance of a global recession this year, down from 50% in the second half of last year. But rallying stocks do not mean the world will escape a recession, rather that China's post-COVID economic reopening should limit the downturn. And economists polled by Reuters forecast global growth would barely clear 2% this year, a level associated with significant downturns historically, and flagged the risk that it could be even slower.

☆ Corporate financial health to worsen, says Janus Henderson
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Corporate financial health will worsen across the globe this year, failing to gain respite from signs that inflation has peaked and hopes for an economic soft landing, asset manager Janus Henderson said in a report released on Monday. Its global credit risk monitor's indicators - debt loads, access to capital markets, cash flow and earnings - all flashed red in the fourth quarter of 2022, signalling caution to investors. All companies it tracks across global regions had flat or negative earnings forecast revisions for this year. Although an economic soft landing looks more likely, the asset manager remains cautious given the retreat in inflation is too late to prevent further deterioration in the credit cycle. "We are not out of the woods yet, although the decline in inflation seen in the last three months is a critical prerequisite to the elusive soft landing that investors cherish."

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