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☆ UK grocery price inflation hits record 17.1%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( James Davey | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Grocery inflation in Feb at highest level ever recordedMilk, eggs, margarine show fastest price risesShoppers face 811 pounds rise in annual grocery billLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - British grocery inflation hit 17.1% in the four weeks to Feb. 19, another record high, dealing the latest blow to consumers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis, industry data showed on Tuesday. "This February marks a full year since monthly grocery inflation climbed above 4%. He said its research found that rising grocery prices are the second most important financial issue for the public behind energy costs. Kantar said UK grocery sales increased 8.1% over the 12 weeks to Feb. 19, masking a drop in volumes when accounting for inflation. UK grocers' market share and sales growth (%)Source: Kantar($1 = 0.8295 pounds)Reporting by James Davey; editing by Grant McCoolOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge plunges unexpectedly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region dropped off sharply and unexpectedly in February, and goods producers reported input cost increases accelerated for the first time in 10 months while their own price increases slowed dramatically, signaling margin pressures were building. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index plunged to -24.3 this month from -8.9 in January, belying expectations among economists for a third straight monthly improvement. Moreover, firms expect smaller price increases for consumers in the next 12 months than they did in November. In a special question, firms said they expect to impose 4.5% price increases for their own products in the year ahead, down from 4.8% when asked the same question in November and also lower than the 7.0% price increases they'd realized over the last year. Wage increases were also expected to be lower at 4.8% in the year ahead, down from 5.0% in the November survey.

☆ Americans in January expected mostly stable gains in future inflation, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Respondents to the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said they expected inflation one year from now to hold steady at 5%. Respondents projected higher food and energy costs, while they saw steady future gains for rent and medical costs. The survey also found that respondents in January saw expected future household earnings growth at 3.3%, down from the expected 4.6% rise in the prior month. The New York Fed noted this was the biggest one-month drop ever for this measure. Meanwhile, expected future spending growth moderated to 5.7% last month, from the 5.9% forecast in December.

☆ Fed's Kashkari sticks to 5.4% rate hike view after 'surprising' jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"I think it surprised all of us," Kashkari said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC, referring to a blowout January jobs report in which more than half a million employment gains were reported by the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later on Tuesday at 1240 EST (1740 GMT). Last week the U.S. central bank increased its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter-of-a-percentage-point to 4.5%-4.75%. Powell reiterated expectations that the Fed was eyeing a pause in the 5%-to-5.25% range as sufficiently restrictive in its fight against high inflation. January's jobs report, however, upended investor expectations after the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest reading since 1969.

☆ Fed may need to push rates higher, Bostic tells Bloomberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve may need to lift borrowing costs higher than previously anticipated given the unexpectedly strong reading on jobs gains in January, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Monday. Unless the report proves to be anomalous, “It’ll probably mean we have to do a little more work,” Bostic told Bloomberg News. “And I would expect that that would translate into us raising interest rates more than I have projected right now.”The Fed could also consider raising the rate by half-a-percentage-point, he told Bloomberg News, though that is not his base case. Bostic had previously said he expects the Fed to need to push its benchmark rate, now in the 4.5%-to-4.75% range, to the 5%-to-5.25% range in order to get policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target. Reporting by Ann Saphir in Berkeley, Calif.; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Homebuyers, rejoice! You can afford to bid on a more expensive home now that mortgage rates have fallen below 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Robert Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US housing market is warming back up because of declining mortgage rates. The average for 30-year mortgage rates have just dipped below 6% for the first time in months. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% on February 2, according to Mortgage Daily News, marking their lowest reading since September 2022. The declining mortgage rates have helped to bring buyers back to the market and bolster purchasing power. "We went from sellers controlling everything, to now being more of a neutral, and even almost a buyer's market."

☆ The Jobless Rate Is at a Half-Century Low. In These States, It’s Even Lower.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A hiring sign at a restaurant in Illinois, which last year had the second-highest state unemployment rate in the country at 4.7%. The national unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 3.5% in December, matching the lowest reading in a half century. Some states had significantly lower rates. Utah had the nation’s lowest rate at 2.2% last month, according to the Labor Department. Other states’ rates were much higher, led by Nevada’s at 5.2%.

☆ U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape even as questions persist over whether growth will turn negative in the year ahead. The growth rate was slightly slower than the 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields were mostly higher as well. Despite the fairly strong economic data, most economists think a recession is a strong possibility this year. Corporate profit reports from the fourth quarter also are signaling a potential earnings recession.

☆ Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering recession, NABE says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claim in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Approximately 53% of those polled by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) said they had a more than-even expectation the United States would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in one. In the NABE's previous poll released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one in the next 12 months. A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or industry trade associations responded to the latest survey, which was conducted from Jan. 4-11. Inflation, based on the Fed's preferred measure, is still nearly three times the central bank's 2% target.

☆ UK consumer mood slides back to near 50-year low - GfK
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Market research firm GfK said its measure of confidence declined 3 points to -45, the third lowest reading since records started in 1974. Energy bills and food prices in have escalated rapidly in recent months, eating away at households' disposable incomes. Food prices jumped 16.8% year-on-year in December - the sharpest increase since September 1977, according to the Office for National Statistics. The cost of an average household energy bill in Britain is set to rise to 3,000 pounds ($3,697.50) a year from April. The survey of 2,000 people was conducted between Jan. 3 and Jan. 12.

☆ US stocks close mixed as Dow dives nearly 400 points on weak Goldman Sachs earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs missed fourth-quarter estimates, while Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years. Goldman Sachs contributed most to the market's sour sentiment, with the firm missing fourth-quarter expectations and weighing heavily on the Dow. Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected earnings. Early Tuesday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years.

☆ Americans are already starting to pull back on their spending, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —Americans have already started to rein in their spending — and expect to pull back some more this year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday morning. Monthly household spending growth, after hitting a series high of 9% in August, fell to 7.7% in December, according to the New York Fed’s latest household spending survey. The drop in spending activity is expected to continue through this year, the survey showed. A slightly larger share of survey respondents also noted that if they were to receive an unexpected 10% pay raise, they would put it toward paying down debt. The retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation.

☆ U.S. consumer inflation expectations fall in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month from 4.4% in December. Inflation is abating as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes cool demand, and supply chain bottlenecks ease. With inflation subsiding, consumers' spirits are perking up. The University of Michigan's preliminary January reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 64.6, up from 59.7 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 60.5.

☆ Asia-Pacific shares set to open higher ahead of U.S. inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Pedestrians by the retail stores at Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, on Monday, Dec. 26, 2022. Asia-Pacific shares are set to trade higher as investors look ahead to the U.S. consumer price index, which would set the Federal Reserve's trajectory in its attempt to tackle inflation after raising rates seven times in 2022. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% ahead of the release of its inflation print for November. Both are higher compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 26,175.56. Overnight on Wall Street, major stock indexes closed higher as investors continued building on the new year's early rally.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November. The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades. Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December.

☆ US consumers increased their borrowing by $28 billion in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers’ credit-hungry approach to spending continued in November, with borrowing rising by nearly $28 billion, according to Federal Reserve data released Monday. Revolving credit, which includes mostly credit cards, grew by 16.9%. It’s the largest jump in revolving credit seen in three months and the fifth-largest monthly increase in Fed record-keeping that goes back nearly 55 years. “It’s really revolving credit, mostly credit card debt, that’s carrying the day right now,” Rossman said. That has filtered down to historically high, if not record, interest rates for car loans, credit cards and personal loans.

☆ UK house prices post biggest quarterly drop since 2009: Halifax
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - British house prices slid again in December, capping the largest quarterly drop since the financial crisis more than 10 years ago, data from mortgage lender Halifax showed on Friday. The average house price fell 1.5% month-on-month in December, following a 2.4% fall in November and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, Halifax said. In quarterly terms, house prices fell 2.5% - the biggest drop since the three months to February 2009. Halifax expects house prices to drop 8% in 2023 - although Kinnaird noted that this would only mean a return to levels last seen in April 2021. House prices surged during the COVID-19 pandemic as people rushed to buy bigger homes with gardens, fuelled by temporary tax incentives.

☆ It's official: Higher mortgage rates are truly terrifying potential homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Mortgage applications sank to a 26-year low in December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Higher mortgage rates have weakened demand and affordability for many American households. Higher mortgage rates are also responsible for lower refinance volumes. There's a glimmer of hope: Inflationary pressures, which have partially been responsible for the surge in mortgage rates, are finally beginning to ease. "Moreover, if rates continue to decline, borrowers who purchased in the last year will have opportunities to refinance into lower rates."

☆ U.S. manufacturing sector contracts, prices decline in December-ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. The survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November. The ISM survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November. According to a Reuters survey of economists, manufacturing employment likely increased by 9,000 jobs in December after rising 14,000 in November.

☆ Saudi non-oil private sector activity eases in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DUBAI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Growth in Saudi Arabia's non-oil business activity slowed to a three-month low in December, a survey showed on Tuesday, although higher sales and strong demand ensured firms remained confident about the outlook for the coming year. The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 56.9 in December from 58.5 in November. However, the output subindex softened to 61 from November's 64.6 while the pace of growth in new orders also slowed. The Saudi government has estimated GDP growth of almost 9% in 2022, revised up from its earlier estimates, with the finance ministry attributing the adjustment largely to non-oil private sector activity. This made us comfortably project growth of non-oil GDP to exceed 4% in 2023."

☆ Chinese manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated. GDP expanded 3% in the first nine months of 2022, versus China's official full-year goal of around 5.5%. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1.

☆ China Dec manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China's exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering the economic recovery. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Jan. 3.

☆ U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October's downwardly revised 77.0. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.8%. Pending home sales dropped 37.8% in November on a year-on-year basis. The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy. Data last week showed the combined annual sales rates of new and existing homes through November had slumped by 35% since January — among the fastest falls on record — to the slowest since late 2011.

☆ The US housing market faces a 'triple whammy' of threats - and stocks may stage a Santa Claus rally, a top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US housing market has been hit by labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgage rates. Brian Jacobsen, an Allspring strategist, described those three trends as a "triple whammy." On the other hand, the Allspring strategist suggested US stocks could reverse some of their recent declines before the new year. Its policymakers have responded by raising interest rates from almost zero in March to over 4% today. Higher interest rates encourage people to save rather than spend, and they raise the cost of borrowing, relieving upward pressure on prices.

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