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REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Investors expect hedge funds to produce higher returns with the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, a BNP Paribas [RIC:RIC:BNPPL.UL] investor survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now expect hedge funds to return an average of 9.75% annually within an average of 19 months, up from 6.85%, according to the survey. However, hedge funds themselves think this will take longer, up to 29 months, the survey showed. BNP Paribas said historical evidence shows hedge funds tend to perform well in higher and stable interest rate environments and less so when rates are lower. BNP Capital Introduction Group surveyed 82 hedge fund managers in what it called the "summer" of 2023.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Michael Oliver Weinberg, , , Weinberg, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, BNP, RIC, Investors, Group, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. logo hangs on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, May 19, 2010. Investors have piled into short-term U.S. government bonds in a bid to wait out the upheaval caused by a blowout in longer-term yields, according to a Goldman Sachs executive. The trade is a key way that institutions and wealthy investors are adjusting to the surge in long-term interest rates that have roiled markets lately. The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing for weeks, reaching a 16-year high of 4.89% Friday after the September jobs report showed that employers were still hiring aggressively. Investors poured more than $1 trillion into new T-bills last quarter, according to Bloomberg.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lindsay Rosner, Rosner Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Inc, New York Stock Exchange, Goldman, CNBC, Treasury, Investors, Bloomberg Locations: New York, U.S, Goldman Sachs
The Federal Reserve sent a strong signal this week that interest rates will stay higher for longer. "Interest rates are to the prices of all assets like gravity is to the function of the earth," the Berkshire Hathaway CEO said in a 2012 interview. "Everything is based off interest rates... Buffett, the so-called "Oracle of Omaha," believes that when interest rates are low, they make any stream of earnings from investments worth more. "The most important item over time and in valuation is obviously interest rates," Buffett once said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, I'd, You've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Berkshire, Tokyo, Treasury Locations: It's, Omaha
The trajectory of US debt interest payments is not sustainable, Maya MacGuineas told Insider. Interest will eclipse defense spending in four years, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president said. By that measure, US debt interest payments will become the single biggest federal expenditure by 2051, when it eclipses Social Security. AdvertisementAdvertisement"So clearly not sustainable," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt today's level, interest payments already outpace federal spending on youth education, and in four years, it will top defense spending.
Persons: MacGuineas, Janet Yellen, it's Organizations: Federal, Social, Service, CNBC, Congressional, Federal Budget, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
With interest rates hovering near zero for much of the last decade, savers couldn't expect to earn much in interest when they stashed their money. Online banks are offering high-yield savings accounts paying interest in the neighborhood of 5%, according to Bankrate. High-yield savings accounts High-yield savings accounts and money market accounts are both insured, up to $250,000, by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Money market funds Money market funds are mutual funds that invest in short-term low-risk debt. There is a very small risk of losing money with these, and they generally pay attractive interest rates and can be quickly liquidated.
Persons: Cash, Amy Arnott, there's, they've, Arnott, Banks, Morgan, Charles Schwab Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar Research Services, ., Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Vanguard
Goldman Sachs expects rates to hold steady again as inflation trends down and the labor market remains strong. But Raymond Bridges, the portfolio manager of the Bridges Capital ETF, an actively managed equity long-only fund, believes the overall macro outlook is still bearish. But regional banks continue to access this program every week, Bridges said. But just because he's bearish on the macro outlook doesn't mean he's not going to take advantage of short-term opportunities. His ETF, launched on May 11, is a mix of US equity-index ETFs, large-cap stocks, and cash or cash equivalents.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Raymond Bridges, Bridges, Joseph Abate, Jerome Powell, he's bearish, Russell Organizations: Fed, Bridges Capital ETF, Barclays, Reuters, Regional Banking, Trust, BPI
Baby boomers are the big winners from the Federal Reserve's policies, Larry McDonald said. Years of low interest rates boosted asset prices, and now they can earn 5% from Treasury bills. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's X post made the point that higher rates have lifted yields on Treasury bills to more than 5%. As a result, baby boomers have the option to cash out their profits, invest in short-term government debt, and collect a solid, guaranteed return. While baby boomers are under fire for hoarding wealth, their spending in retirement could prove crucial in sustaining the economy and preventing a recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni argued this summer.
Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Lehman, He's, boomers, Baby, That's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, millennials, Ukraine
What the Fed’s September Rate Decision Means for You
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Steve Garmhausen | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +5 min
By Steve GarmhausenThe Federal Reserve elected on Wednesday to keep interest rates steady, and that’s good news for savers: It means they’ll continue to enjoy the best rates in more than two decades. There’s more good news: The market, which just a few weeks ago expected rate cuts to start early in 2024, now doesn’t expect cuts until midyear. “There are several options to get at least 5% on your liquid cash, and that should stay around until the Fed cuts rates,” says DepositAccounts.com founder Ken Tumin. Meanwhile, inflation remains well above the Fed’s preferred rate of 2%, providing another reason for it to keep rates high. The fed-funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight.
Persons: Steve Garmhausen, , Ken Tumin, , Michael Yoshikami, Banks, don’t Organizations: Federal Reserve, , Fed, BMO Alto, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Locations: Walnut Creek, Calif
High-yield online savings accountsThe average annual percentage yield on bank savings accounts was just 0.56%, according to a September 11 survey from Bankrate. But many online, FDIC-insured banks are offering well north of 5% on their high-yield savings accounts. But don’t confuse money market accounts with money market mutual funds. And while money market funds are typically very safe investments, they may have fees and withdrawal restrictions. As of September 19, CDs listed on Schwab.com with durations of three months, six months, nine months, one year and 18 months were all yielding 5.5% or more.
Persons: , they’ve, Lazetta Rainey Braxton, Braxton, you’ve, , Doug Ornstein, Ken Tumin, Schwab, you’ll, Tumin, , Andy Smith, Ornstein, Don’t, doesn’t, ” Smith Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wealth Partners, TIAA Wealth Management, Fidelity, Treasury, Edelman, AAA Locations: New York, United States
An opportunity to maximize tax-favored growth in your investment account is around the corner: employee benefits season. But it's also prime time to check in on contributions to and the underlying investments in 401(k) plans, individual retirement accounts and health savings accounts, which can offer a bevy of tax benefits. Enter asset location, which involves positioning the assets with the highest growth prospects and yield for growth and tax efficiency. "And too many people in my opinion are unlikely to touch their retirement accounts for more than a decade, and yet a lot of it is in cash or cash-like investments." In contrast, tax-deferred retirement accounts could be split 80/20 for workers who are early to mid-career, McLoughlin said.
Persons: it's, Barry Glassman, Glassman, Sam, Roth, Roth IRAs, Brenna McLoughlin, McLoughlin Organizations: Wealth Services, CNBC's, Wealthstream Advisors
In just the past three months, over $1 trillion in new Treasury bills have been purchased. Noncompetitive bidders bought a record-high $2.898 billion of six-month bills in mid-August, Bloomberg said. That suggests smaller investors are increasingly jumping into the market for short-term US debt. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Meanwhile, a whopping $7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year, representing 31% of all outstanding government debt.
Persons: Louis Fed Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, St Locations: Wall, Silicon
The Fed's rate-hiking campaign gave investors an opportunity they haven't seen in years: Risk-free returns are finally interesting. Six-month Treasurys are yielding 5.5%, while a bevy of money market funds are offering 7-day yields exceeding 5%, according to Crane Data . However, at some point, rates will come down — and investors hiding in short-term, high-yielding assets could find themselves with no place to go. That means investors could be left with few places to go for attractive yields in a lower rate environment as their shorter-term assets mature — known as reinvestment risk. The benefit of laddering when rates are high is that the longer-dated bonds will have already locked in the higher yields.
Persons: There's, we've, Crystal Cox, Matthew McKay, McKay, Jerrod Pearce, Pearce, Wealthspire's Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Data, Wealthspire Advisors, Briaud Financial, CFP, Creative Planning
I never like higher rates at any end of the curve. At every benchmark, you will first hear that every bull market ends because of higher rates. We have done well in the stock market at 7% on the 20-year and well at half that. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Shawn Fain, Fain, He's, haven't, Tesla, , Mike Wilsons, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Here's, it's, there's, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jim Cramer Rob Kim Organizations: Companies, Federal Reserve, Big, ARM Holdings, Club, MarketEdge, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, ARM, American Free Trade, Netflix, Earth, Apple, Treasury, Fed, CNBC Locations: Mexico, United States, Canada
Before turning 93 on Wednesday, Warren Buffett made a number of astute moves in the past 12 months that helped push his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway to an all-time high. Buying T-bills Buffett's massive cash hoard swelled to nearly $150 billion at the end of the second quarter. And the only question for next Monday is whether we will buy $10 billion in 3-month or 6-month" T-bills, Buffett told CNBC. Ramping up Japan bet Buffett recently hiked his stakes in five Japanese trading houses — Itochu , Marubeni , Mitsubishi , Mitsui and Sumitomo — to more than 8.5%. Occidental stake tops 25% Buffett also kept buying the dip in Occidental Petroleum , now owning a quarter of the oil giant.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, he's, Buffett, Treasurys, Chamath Palihapitiya, oilman Armand Hammer, NVR, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Benjamin Moore Organizations: Buffett, Berkshire, CNBC, Japan, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Social, Occidental, Occidental Petroleum, Clayton Homes, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Locations: Berkshire, Fitch's, U.S, Japan, Occidental, Horton
Warren Buffett and Michael Burry may be expecting a market downturn and recession, Steve Hanke says. Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $8 billion of stocks and added to its cash pile in the second quarter. Burry's Scion firm placed bets against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 worth a notional $1.6 billion. Steve Hanke says the Berkshire Hathaway CEO and the investor of "The Big Short" fame are likely preparing for trouble. "It looks to me like Burry has made a good move," Hanke said about the Scion chief's latest big short.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, Steve Hanke, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's, Hanke, Buffett, Goldman Sachs, Davidson, Elon Musk's Tesla, Burry, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Scion, Nasdaq, Service, Berkshire, Johns Hopkins University, Toronto Trust, Electric, Harley, Scion Asset Management, Elon, & $ Locations: Wall, Silicon, Toronto Trust Argentina, Mars
Savers are now getting higher cash yields after several interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. "Everyone thinks it's kind of a free lunch," said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida. Falling into the regular tax brackets, ordinary income is less favorable than long-term capital gains. Similarly, taxable money market funds — which typically invest in shorter-term lower-credit-risk debt — and Treasury bills also trigger ordinary income. But Treasury bill earnings aren't subject to state or local taxes.
Persons: Crane, Tommy Lucas, Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo, you've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Crane Data, Finance Locations: Orlando , Florida
U.S. Treasury yields were lower at the long end of the curve on Wednesday as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. At the shorter end of the curve, yields were marginally higher. "We have one big weapon and that is credibility," Barkin said to the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce. "There is nothing magic about 2 except that when you set that as a target you probably want to achieve it." On the data front, S&P Global's flash purchasing managers' index readings for August are due at 9:45 a.m.
Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Richmond Fed, of Commerce Locations: Wyoming, Danville Pittsylvania County
High-yield savings accounts, with easy access to your funds, are worth considering, said Ken Tumin, founder and editor at DepositAccounts.com. While investors expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates next year, online savings account rates won't fall significantly until the policy shifts, he added. Treasury billsAmid rising interest rates, Treasury bills have also become a competitive option for cash, with yields well above 5%, as of Aug. 18. Money market fundsAnother option to consider is short-term money market funds, said certified financial planner Chris Mellone, partner at VLP Financial Advisors in Vienna, Virginia. Money market mutual funds — which are different from money market deposit accounts — typically invest in shorter-term, lower-credit-risk debt, such as Treasury bills.
Persons: Ken Tumin, They're, Chris Mellone Organizations: Istock, Getty, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Treasury, U.S . Department of, VLP Financial Locations: TreasuryDirect, Vienna , Virginia
And only a handful of stocks have accounted for the bulk of wealth creation in the stock market in the last 30 years. The good news: U.S. companies are far and away the biggest drivers of stock wealth creation in the last 30 years. Stock market wealth is highly concentrated How can this be? Just five stocks accounted for 10% of global net stock market wealth creation over 31 years. The reason, as this paper demonstrates, is that stock returns are not normally distributed over time.
Persons: Hendrik Bessembinder, Johnson, Roche, Kwiechow, Tencent, Tesla, Nicholas Colas, Larry Swedroe, Swedroe, Colas Organizations: Global, CFA, Treasury, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart, Facebook, Samsung, Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nestle, U.S, DataTrek Research, Strategic, New York Stock Exchange Locations: United States, U.S, China
Stocks vs. bonds: How to position from here
  + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks vs. bonds: How to position from hereCNBC's Bob Pisani with Ben Kirby, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss investing in treasury bills rather than stocks, diversifying portfolios with treasury bonds, and the value of active management.
Persons: Bob Pisani, Ben Kirby Organizations: Thornburg Investment Management
Enes EvrenInvestors piled into Series I bonds amid record yields, and some are now eyeing an exit for higher-interest alternatives. After reaching 9.62% annual interest in May 2022, I bond yields have declined with falling inflation, reaching 4.3% interest for new purchases from May through October. However, the U.S. Department of the Treasury still needs two months of CPI readings before the next I bond rate change. "It's falling back in line with I bond inflation rates we had before the pandemic," said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com. While longer-term investors may like the current 0.9% fixed rate portion of I bond yields, short-term investors may prefer higher-paying alternatives.
Persons: Enes, Ken Tumin, Jeremy Keil, Keil, Tumin, " Keil Organizations: U.S . Department of, Treasury, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Keil Financial Partners Locations: Milwaukee
The Omaha-based giant reported Saturday that its operating earnings jumped 6.6% year over year, totaling $10.04 billion last quarter. Berkshire's Class A shares climbed 3% to hit an all-time high of $550,660 on an intraday basis, exceeding the conglomerate's previous high from March 2022. Class B shares of Warren Buffett 's conglomerate rose a similar 2.8%, on track to close at a record high. Berkshire Hathaway shares rallied to a record high Monday following a strong quarterly report that showed a rebound in insurance operations as well as a massive cash hoard that swelled to nearly $150 billion. Insurance underwriting earnings recorded a 74% increase to $1.25 billion, benefiting from higher interest rates and lower catastrophe losses.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, he's, Bill Stone, Apple, Brian Meredith Organizations: Berkshire, Glenview Trust, Apple, UBS Locations: Omaha, Berkshire, Glenview
Warren Buffett found few bargains in the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings show. The investor's company sold a net $8 billion of stock, and spent only $1.4 billion on buybacks. They also spent only $1.4 billion on stock buybacks last quarter, down from over $4 billion in the first quarter. They plowed a record $68 billion into stocks last year, or $34 billion on a net basis. In contrast, Berkshire sold over $18 billion of stock on a net basis during the first six months of this year.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway's, That's, it's, Buffett, didn't, Fitch Organizations: Berkshire, Service, BNSF Railway, Travel Centers, Treasury, CNBC, AAA, AA Locations: Wall, Silicon, Alleghany, Berkshire
Money market funds — which are different than money market deposit accounts — are a type of mutual fund that typically invests in shorter-term, lower-credit-risk debt, such as Treasury bills. Currently, some money market mutual funds are outperforming assets such as high-yield savings accounts or newly purchased Series I bonds. Money market funds have less liquidity than savingsChristopher Lyman, a certified financial planner with Allied Financial Advisors in Newtown, Pennsylvania, said he's still proposing money market mutual funds for certain clients, with the caveat of higher risks or more stipulations for accessing the money. What's more, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently adopted "liquidity fees" for certain money market funds for withdrawals when daily outflows exceed 5% of the fund's value. Money market funds aren't risk freeWhile money market funds typically invest in lower-risk assets, experts say it's important to know the funds aren't risk free.
Persons: dowell, Christopher Lyman, he's, Lyman, Randy Bruns, Bruns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Data, Investment Company Institute, Financial Advisors, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Fund, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: Newtown , Pennsylvania, it's, Naperville , Illinois
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he is betting against 30-year U.S. Treasurys as a hedge against the impact of long-term rates on stocks in "a world with persistent 3% inflation." Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, also said he is "short in size" on the 30-year U.S. Treasurys because it's "a high probability standalone bet." "We implement these hedges by purchasing options rather than shorting bonds outright," Ackman said said late Wednesday. Ackman argued that if U.S. inflation is 3% in the long term instead of 2%, 30-year Treasury yields could hit 5.5% "and it can happen soon." U.S. inflation stood at 3% in June, while yields on 30-year Treasury hit 4.2% — its highest since early November.
Persons: Bill Ackman, Olivia Tournay Flatto, Ackman, Fitch Organizations: Armory, Billionaire, Pershing, Capital Management, AAA, White, Treasury Locations: New York City
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