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☆ April is usually the best month for the Dow. Here’s how much it typically goes up and why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

By comparison, the Dow has gained around 0.7% in an average month since 1950. April has historically been the second best month for the S & P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq Composite (and second best for Russell 1000 and third best for the Russell 3000). More good news: The Aprils of previous pre-election years have posted an even stronger average performance. Lately, the Dow Industrials have exhibited strength following the tax filing deadline, per the Almanac, which falls on April 18 this year. A March advance would mark a reversal from February, when the Dow Industrials lost 4.2% and briefly gave up all of its early 2023 gain.

☆ Jamie Dimon is riding to the rescue again. This time, he's poised to come out on top.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Carter Johnson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

Why, then, has Dimon been so willing to swing back into action in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse? But it's starting to look like JPMorgan — and Dimon — will end up winners no matter how things turn out. In backstopping First Republic, JPMorgan helps a client and a bank that experts say would fit nicely into its business. By saving First Republic, JPMorgan also stands to gain goodwill from Silicon Valley startups, which are customers of the smaller bank. The paper also reported that regulators asked Dimon, Bank of America, and other banks to buy Silicon Valley Bank and pay out depositors over the insured limit.

☆ Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is about to enter one of the seasonally strongest months of the year, but volatility could persist in the week ahead with fading momentum and a big jobs report. The stock market is closed that day to observe Good Friday. Week ahead calendar Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, March Tuesday 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders, Feb. 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, Feb. Wednesday 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications 8:15 a.m. ADP, March 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Service, March Thursday Earnings: Constellation Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday The stock market is closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls

☆ Options Action: Huge bet on volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOptions Action: Huge bet on volatilityBrian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments on an options trader's huge bet that volatility could pull back. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami.

☆ Crude prices rise slightly on China recovery, weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Andrew Hayley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in Monday's Asian trade, reversing a weak start as a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided support to a market rattled by the prospect possible further U.S. interest rate increases. After initially slipping in early trading, Brent crude futures were up 25 cents, or 0.30%, to $83.03 per barrel by 0700 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) ticked up by 23 cents, or 0.30%, to $76.91 a barrel. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, lending support to oil prices. Comments on Sunday from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on crude demand from China also provided some support.

☆ Oil prices tick up on China demand and weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in Monday Asian late morning trade, reversing a weak start as a recovery in Chinese demand and a weaker dollar provided support to a market rattled by the prospect possible further U.S. interest rate increases. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) ticked up by 20 cents, or 0.26%, to $76.88 a barrel. "From an oil trader's perspective, the U.S. dollar should pull back as traders give up on a re-acceleration of Fed hikes; this, in turn, clears a path for more robust Chinese fundamentals to dominate commodity trading," Innes added. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, lending support to oil prices. Comments on Sunday from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on crude demand from China also provided some support.

☆ A look inside a $22.5 million Miami condo with insane luxury amenities
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Ray Parisi | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

Turnberry Ocean Club ResidencesInside the Sky Club's fitness center where the treadmills come with impressive views. Turnberry Ocean Club ResidencesOutdoor sunset lounge Turnberry Ocean Club ResidencesAlso up on 32nd floor is a so-called dog retreat where lucky pooches can take in the ocean views and relieve themselves. Turnberry Ocean Club Residences / Leo DiazThe kitchen includes three islands and comes equipped with custom Italian-made cabinetry and high-end German appliances. A rendering of one of the Turnberry Ocean Club Residences' beach front cabanas. Turnberry Ocean Club Residences

☆ The good news is markets look resilient — but the bad news is just about everything else
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wizardry aside, let's see why the stock market has proved so resilient this year, even though the economy's providing nothing to cheer for. DataTrek cofounder Nicholas Colas is chalking up stable markets to strong earnings. "The only explanation that makes sense to us for this conundrum of 'bad' news and stable markets is that US corporate earnings power remains resilient," Colas wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Even as markets act like everything's fine, there's still not quite enough optimism among investors to say that markets are nearing a peak, according to Ned Davis Research. A top-ranked stock-picker said January's hot CPI report suggests the stock market is far from the bottom.

☆ Demand for macro traders remains white hot. Millennium just lured a star portfolio manager from rival ExodusPoint.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Demand for macro portfolio managers remains white hot after a bounceback year in 2022. Millennium recently hired John Curtice from rival ExodusPoint, while Ben Melkman has been in talks to join another, Insider has learned. Millennium Management recently added another star to its stable, lifting a 32-year-old macro PM out of rival ExodusPoint, according to people familiar with the matter. Macro focused funds including BlueCrest, Brevan Howard, and Rokos produced stellar returns as most of the hedge fund industry — especially stock pickers — faltered. But even in late 2022 firms were scrambling to lift out macro PMs, recruiters working in the strategy told Insider.

☆ Traders wonder if Fed will change its rate outlook to better match market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

and what the market believes ( The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in February, another quarter point in March, then stop, and will likely lower rates slightly by the end of the year). If inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to move lower, the market will believe Powell is winning the fight against inflation. "As goes January, so goes the year" The S & P 500 ended up 6.2% in January, the first up January since 2019. "January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S & P 500 data back to 1928," Richard Suttmeier at Bank of America chart analyst told clients in a note. S & P 500: avg.

☆ January Barometer looks like it will be positive, giving bulls a psychological boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The so-called January Barometer starts 2023 positive with the S & P 500 up 4.6% to start the final trading day of the month. As for the S & P 500 , bulls want to keep the momentum going. To maintain that, the S & P has to stay well above the 4,000 range. Several companies (UPS, Exxon Mobil, Whirlpool) reported revenues that were lower than expectations. 2023 S & P earnings estimates: (year over year) Q1: down 1.7% Q2: down 2.2% Q3: up 3.8% Q4: up 10.1% Source: Refinitiv Want a good example?

☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."

☆ A 'January Effect' rally is happening in small cap stocks. Jefferies has some names to keep playing it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks have surged in the first few weeks of January, confirming an outperformance that's often seen early on in a new year. So far this year, the Russell 2000 Index – which tracks small-cap stocks — is up 7.4% through Monday's close, outperforming its large-cap counterpart, the Russell 1000, which is up 5% in the same period. Even within small-cap names, the smallest companies by market share have performed the best, according to a Jan. 24 note from Jefferies. "With the calendar turning to the new year, we have seen a nice relief rally in the smallest of the small caps with names below $500M [in market capitalization] up 11.3%," wrote Jefferies small-cap strategist Steven DeSanctis. Restaurants Bloomin' Brands —which owns chains such as Outback Steakhouse and Bonefish Grill — and Dave & Buster's top the Jefferies list of small-cap names with higher-quality themes.

☆ 8 stocks that have reclaimed their long-term bullish trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 200-day moving average calculates the average price of the index over the last roughly 40 weeks. The S & P 500 ended Friday at 3,999.09 points, above the 200-day average of 3,981.22. On Monday, the S & P 500 broke a four-day winning streak , slipping 0.2% to 3,990.97, but it remained above that key point. About two out of every three S & P 500 stocks are individually above their respective 200-day moving averages, according O'Hara. All numbers are current through Friday's close: Airlines Alaska and Delta are both trading around 10% above their 200-day moving average.

☆ A former CVS nurse practitioner is suing the company after it fired her for refusing to prescribe birth control and Plan B for religious reasons
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Bethany Biron | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A former CVS employee in Texas is suing the company after it fired her for refusing to give out birth control. The suit claims the company granted her "religious accommodation" until it reversed the policy in August 2021. The suit claims CVS previously granted Strader religious accommodation so that she was not required to give out birth control at the MinuteClinic where she worked in Keller, Texas. Currently, six states — Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, and South Dakota — allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense birth control pills or Plan B for religious reasons. Strader's suit follows similar legal action taken by CVS nurse practitioners in Virginia and Kansas, who also claim the company fired them for refusal to provide birth control to customers.

☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.

☆ Technical analysts agree January's strong start is a good omen, but here's what they expect to happen next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Redler expects the S & P 500 could reach 3,980 to 4,000 before reversing lower. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,940 on Monday. He expects the S & P 500 to put in a near-term top this week. He is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, which is literally the average of the last 200 closes. "The SPX [S & P 500] has spent the majority of the last three weeks between 3,800 and 3,900," Krinsky wrote in a note.

☆ Investor Stephen Weiss makes a tactical trade on improving inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stephen Weiss bought shares of Microsoft , which could be a tactical trade for investors after sentiment around growth stocks improved on some better inflation data. Part of my portfolio's long term, but I'm also, you know, I can trade," Weiss said Monday on CNBC's "Halftime Report." So that's why I bought Microsoft. Despite the steep drop, Microsoft outperformed other mega-cap tech stocks investors found more risky, such as Amazon, which plunged more than 49%, and Alphabet, which dropped about 39%. SoFi's Liz Young said she agreed with Microsoft as a trade for short-term investors, though she warned investors against suddenly turning bullish on mega-cap tech stocks.

☆ Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.

☆ Happy 50th anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Happy 50th Anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally. It's that time of year again: the Santa Claus rally. Santa Claus rally: what it is The Santa Claus rally is a short rally that runs from the last five trading days of the year to the first two trading days of the New Year. According to one study, a Santa Claus rally has materialized in four out of every five years since 1950. His father, Yale Hirsch, a friend of mine for many years, discovered and named the Santa Claus rally in 1972.

☆ Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mostly lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.6% as of Friday morning. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors look for 'Santa Rally' after grim year in U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Bruised investors are hoping a so-called Santa Claus rally can soften the pain of a tough year in U.S. stocks and potentially brighten the outlook for 2023. Friday is this year's start date for this rally named after Santa Claus - if it happens. The phenomenon has lifted the S&P 500 an average of 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. A December without a Santa rally has been followed by a weaker-than-average year, data from LPL Financial going back to 1950 showed. "The lack of a 'Santa Claus rally' this month, with a 'lump of coal selloff' in its place, is a troubling sign about 2023 US equity returns," strategists at DataTrek wrote.

☆ Investors see typical seasonal patterns failing with little hope for a Santa rally or January bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The usually reliable indicator historically shows the S & P 500 gains 73% of the time in the coming year when rising during those seven days. When the S & P was negative, the market was up about half that amount for the year, just 4.7%. The S & P was down 3.1% in February of 2022. In the year 2021, the S & P 500 gained 27%, but there are two distinct patterns following that type of gain. But, historically, whenever the decline started in the first or second quarter, the S & P 500 was higher by the end of the year 100% of the time.

☆ Wall Street's 'free lunch'? A simple holiday trade that tends to beat the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The almanac's editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch wrote that "this `free lunch' is an extremely short-term strategy reserved for the nimblest traders." Also listed on the table are the average percentage of analysts rating each one a buy and the potential upside represented by analysts' 12-month price targets. Five financial stocks also popped up: Capital One , Signature Bank , Extra Space Storage , Lincoln National and Global Payments . Three tech stocks, two utilities and one consumer non-discretionary and one healthcare stock each round out the screen. Salesforce and Signature Bank both offer potential upside of more than 70%, the highest of the 13, based on analysts' average price targets.

☆ Stocks challenged by technical factors as market heads into final trading days of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.

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