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Aug 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. U.S. fiscal worries are also growing, however, and the Bank of Japan's recent 'yield curve control' surprise has lifted Japanese bond yields. Several potential market-moving data releases and events in Asia are also due, as well U.S. consumer price inflation for July. Monday's calendar in Asia is fairly light, with Indonesian Q2 GDP and Thai inflation for July the main releases.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, JP Morgan, Diane Craft Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Sony, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, China FX, Thomson Locations: Indonesia, Philippines, Asia, Japan, U.S, China, Beijing, Thailand
FILE PHOTO-A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File PhotoMUMBAI, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to remain under pressure on Friday after longer maturity U.S. yields reached the highest level this year. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open slightly weaker to the U.S. dollar from 82.7225 in the previous session. "The rupee and the whole EM complex will not see any sort of relief if the volatility in U.S. yields remains high." The Fitch downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, broadly resilient U.S. data and rising U.S. inflation expectations have contributed to the selloff in Treasuries.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Fitch, Nimesh Vora, Sonia Cheema Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reserve Bank of India, U.S ., Reuters, NFP, DBS Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, MUMBAI, Treasuries, U.S
A man checks his mobile phones in front of State Bank of India (SBI) branch in Kolkata, India, February 9, 2018. Net profit was at a record 168.84 billion rupees ($2.04 billion) for the quarter ended June 30, compared with 60.68 billion rupees a year earlier. Rivals HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS) have reported double-digit net interest income growth for the fiscal first quarter. The net NPA ratio rose to 0.71% from 0.67% in the prior three months. The bank expects its net NPA ratio to fall to 0.5% in the next few quarters, Khara said.
Persons: Chowdhuri, Dinesh Kumar Khara, Khara, SBI's, Siddhi Nayak, Sonia Cheema Organizations: State Bank of India, REUTERS, Rivals HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India, MUMBAI, BENGALURU
BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now. Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter. Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.
Persons: Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU
Bankers have been worried about the eventual outflows of these funds, but RBI officials have assured them in informal meetings that they have adequate buffers to manage such an eventuality, the banking sources said. "Whenever banks have expressed concerns about potential outflows on the forex and debt market, the RBI has always responded positively," said a treasury official at a state-run bank. The official and other sources requested not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media. The RBI has never disclosed the quantum of such funds, the sources said. Reporting by Ira Dugal, Siddhi Nayak and Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: CLSA, Ira Dugal, Siddhi Nayak, Dharamraj, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Reserve Bank of, U.S, Bankers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Reserve Bank of India, India, Siddhi
BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Growth in India's manufacturing activity eased in July for a second month, with some moderation in output and new orders, although the pace of expansion remained healthy, a private business survey showed on Tuesday. The sector has remained resilient despite declines in manufacturing activity in other major producers, suggesting Asia's third-largest economy is still on robust footing. "The Indian manufacturing sector showed little sign of losing growth momentum in July as production lines continued to motor on the back of strong new order growth." New orders remained robust in July, and while output growth moderated to a three-month low it remained strong. With input prices rising at the quickest pace since October, output prices also rose, but at a slower pace compared with the previous month, highlighting uncertainty regarding inflation.
Persons: Andrew Harker, Harker, Anant Chandak, Kim Coghill Organizations: Manufacturing, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of India
Likely corporate dollar inflows related to an Indian conglomerate was the major driver for the rupee's move, traders and analysts said. There are possibilities of central bank intervention given that it has previously bought dollars in the 81.85-81.90 range, said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. The appreciation in the rupee is also on the moderate side given the rise in the dollar index, Parmar said. The dollar inflows into equities have also been helping the rupee, traders added. The dollar index , on the other hand, has recovered from 15-month lows hit last week and was up 0.2% on Monday.
Persons: Dilip Parmar, Parmar, India's, Avni Jain, Sonia Cheema Organizations: U.S ., HDFC Securities, Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of, FX, HDFC Bank, Sethuraman NR, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bengaluru
The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading. US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute. Here are three other reasons countries around the world are attempting to line up plans to possibly move away from a dollar-dominated world. The arrangement was formalized in 1945 when the oil-giant country Saudi Arabia and the US reached a historic deal wherein Saudi Arabia would sell its oil to America only using the greenback. In return, Saudi Arabia would reinvest excess dollar reserves into US treasuries and companies.
Persons: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, , Narendra Modi's, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, It's, Donald Trump, wasn't, Joe Biden, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jamal Khashoggi, Sarah Miller Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Wilson, Reserve Bank of, Indian, Reuters, Allianz, Global, US, Washington Post, Energy Intelligence Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Western, Ukraine, Washington, Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh, India, France, Reserve Bank of India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, America, Saudi
Major economies were hit by higher inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic, but India's inflation was already elevated. In June, India's inflation rate was 4.81%, which remains within the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band of 2% to 6%. There is a paradigm shift and flight of capital from Indian households savings to equity to contribute to the India growth story," Azeez told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" last week. "So whichever way one looks at the economic numbers, India appears as an oasis in the global desert," he added. watch nowHowever, Matthew Asia's Mittal said that instead of buying into pharmaceutical companies, upstream companies such as Syngene will be a good investment opportunity.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Darren Robb, Feroze Azeez, Anand, Azeez, CNBC's, Nifty, it'll, Soumya Rajan, Peeyush Mittal, Nilesh Shah, Shah, Financials, Rajan, Waterfield's Rajan, We've, we've, Hindenburg, Matthews, Mittal, India's, Nestle, Kotak's Shah, Punit Paranjpe, Matthew Asia's Mittal Organizations: Bank, Getty, Wealth, Reserve Bank, Monetary Fund, Waterfield, Matthews Asia, CNBC, Mahindra Asset Management, IDFC, IDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank, Housing Development Finance Corporation, India's HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra Finance, Nestle, World Bank, Nurphoto, Hindustan Unilever, Britannia Industries, Manufacturing Global, Godrej Aerospace, Afp Locations: India, United Kingdom, Japan, Mumbai, China, Nestle India, LuLu, Lulu, Kerala
They rose by $12.74 billion from the week earlier - the biggest gain in four months - having risen by a total of $3.08 billion in the prior two weeks. "A major portion of the week-on-week jump in forex reserves is driven by revaluation gains due to dollar weakness and reduction in U.S. Treasury yields," said Gaura Sen Gupta, India economist at IDFC FIRST Bank. The current level of forex reserves, along with the RBI's forward foreign exchange book of $19.3 billion, is enough to cover over 11 months of imports, Reuters' calculations showed. In the week for which the forex reserves data pertains, the rupee had logged its best week in four. Foreign Exchange Reserves (in million U.S. dollars)Source text: (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx)Reporting by Siddhi Nayak; Editing by Sohini Goswami and Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Gaura Sen Gupta, Sen Gupta, Siddhi Nayak, Sohini Goswami, Nivedita Organizations: Treasury, IDFC FIRST Bank, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India's, National Securities Depository Limited, Foreign Exchange, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, U.S, India
MUMBAI, July 17 (Reuters) - India will need to grow at a rate of 7.6% annually for the next 25 years to become a developed nation, according to a research paper published by the central bank in its monthly bulletin on Monday. India's per capita income is currently estimated at $2,500, while it must be more than $21,664 by 2047, as per World Bank standards, to be classified as a high-income country. "It may, however, be mentioned that the best (nominal growth) India achieved over a period of consecutive 25 years in the past is a CAGR of 8.1% during 1993-94 to 2017-18." To reach that level of sustained growth, India requires investment in physical capital and reforms across sectors covering education, infrastructure, healthcare and technology, the study said. The country's industrial and services sector would need to grow at over 13% annually for these 25 years for India to achieve developed economy status, it said.
Persons: Ira Dugal, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India
India ties up with UAE to settle trade in rupees
  + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( Arpan Chaturvedi | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
NEW DELHI, July 15 (Reuters) - India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India's efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions. The two agreements will enable "seamless cross-border transactions and payments, and foster greater economic cooperation", said a statement from the Reserve Bank of India on Saturday. India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer and whose central bank last year announced a framework for settling global trade in rupees, currently pays for UAE oil in dollars. An official with knowledge of the details of the agreement said India could make its first rupee payment for UAE oil to Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), Reuters reported on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India said the two central banks agreed to link India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and UAE's Instant Payment Platform (IPP).
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Arpan Chaturvedi, Clelia Organizations: United Arab, India's, UAE, Reserve Bank of India, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, Reuters, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, Asia
NEW DELHI, July 14 (Reuters) - Indian refiners have settled some payments for Russian oil imports in Chinese yuan, but the U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency for such payments, a senior government official said. Reuters reported earlier this month that Indian refiners have started turning to the yuan for some payments for Russian oil. "Use of yuan for payment by India will remain limited, given India doesn't accumulate much yuan as export to China is low," the official, who did not want to be named, told Reuters. The official also said the Reserve Bank of India will release guidance for banks in two to three days to resolve some teething issues on the rupee trade mechanism. "The issue with rupee trade is that it can only work as a barter currency," the official said.
Persons: Sergei Lavrov, Shivangi Acharya, Aftab Ahmed, Nikunj, Devika Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Russian, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, Moscow, Ukraine, China, Russia
MUMBAI, July 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to rise on Thursday on expectations that cooling inflation in the United States will allow the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes soon. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82-82.05 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.2475 in the previous session. "Having talked of an upside breakout (for USD/INR) last week, this has been quite a turnaround," a fx trader said. The larger-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. inflation fuelled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is close to halting rate hikes. "The Federal Reserve seems intent on pushing ahead with a July rate hike, but the need for additional tightening thereafter is questionable," ING Bank said in a note.
Persons: interbank, Nimesh Vora, Nivedita Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Reserve Bank of, U.S . Federal, ING Bank, Korean, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, United States, Reserve Bank of India, U.S, Malaysian
MUMBAI, July 13 (Reuters) - India's largest private lender HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS) on Thursday said it has signed up over 100,000 customers and 170,000 merchants in pilot programmes using the central bank digital currency (CBDC). The lender also linked the CBDC, termed e-rupee, and United Payments Interface (UPI) for merchants and customers, which would enable payments through both CBDC and UPI using a single Quick Response (QR) code, HDFC Bank said in a statement. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has devised the e-rupee as a digital alternative to physical cash, using blockchain distributed-ledger technology. The central bank aims to reach a target of one million CBDC transactions per day by the end of this year from 5000-10,000 currently, Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said on Tuesday. Reporting by Siddhi Nayak; Editing by Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: T Rabi Sankar, Siddhi Nayak, Sonia Cheema Organizations: HDFC Bank, United, UPI, Reserve Bank of India, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
India's largest private lender HDFC Bank on Thursday said it has signed up over 100,000 customers and 170,000 merchants in pilot programs using the central bank digital currency, or CBDC. The lender also linked the CBDC, termed e-rupee, and United Payments Interface, or UPI, for merchants and customers, which would enable payments through both CBDC and UPI using a single Quick Response code, HDFC Bank said in a statement. The Reserve Bank of India has devised the e-rupee as a digital alternative to physical cash, using blockchain distributed-ledger technology. The central bank aims to reach a target of one million CBDC transactions per day by the end of this year from 5000 to 10,000 currently, Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said on Tuesday.
Persons: T Rabi Sankar Organizations: HDFC Bank, United, UPI, Reserve Bank of India
June retail inflation rose to 4.81%, higher than both the revised 4.31% for the previous month and the 4.58% expected in a Reuters poll of 55 economists. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, rose to 4.49% against a revised 2.96% in May. Reuters GraphicsErratic and incessant rainfall in northern India could push vegetable prices higher in the coming months. Prices of vegetables will remain high in July and may push retail inflation to an "uncomfortable 5.3%-5.5%" this month, Nayar added. "We expect the monetary policy committee to see through the short-term spike in food inflation and remain on prolonged pause," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital.
Persons: Aditi Nayar, Nayar, Garima Kapoor, Aftab Ahmed, Vineet, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: NEW DELHI, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Elara, Thomson Locations: India
Nearly two dozen central banks across emerging and advanced economies are expected to have digital currencies in circulation by the end of the decade, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) found in a survey, published on Monday. The RBI aims to reach a target of one million CBDC transactions per day by the end of this year, RBI deputy governor T Rabi Sankar said on Tuesday. There were 1.3 million customers and 0.3 million merchants, who used CBDC as of June 2023, he said. "We are in the advanced stage of submitting a CBDC pilot request to the RBI. The central bank has also asked smaller banks to seek feedback from those currently conducting the pilots, the bankers said.
Persons: T Rabi Sankar, Siddhi Nayak, Sohini Goswami Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Bank for International Settlements, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Bank, BOB.NS
India's pushing to internationalize the Indian rupee, according to a report from its central bank. The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency since the Second World War, playing a crucial role in the world's trade and financial system. In its Wednesday report, the RBI working group encouraged the opening of rupee-denominated accounts for non-residents in India and overseas. While the macro geopolitical environment is spurring countries to seek alternative currencies to trade with, there's long been uneasiness over the dollar's outsized dominance in global trade and finance. Just 0.01% of India's trade in goods was settled in the rupee last year, Bloomberg reported on Friday citing people familiar with the matter.
Persons: , It's, India's, Narendra Modi's Organizations: Service, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of International, Bloomberg Locations: China, Russia, India, Moscow
MUMBAI, July 7 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is working on regulations that will be more "developmental" for financial technology, or fintech, companies, a deputy governor of the central bank said on Friday. "We are working on regulations (that) would be specific to fintech entities and the fintech ecosystem," T Rabi Sankar said at an event in Bengaluru. The central bank has been monitoring the fintech space lately to ensure financial stability and mitigate risks related to cybersecurity and prevent fraud. The RBI is talking to fintech companies and any regulations in that regard will only be after "close consultation" with the industry, he added, without providing a timeline for the same. Fintechs need to devote their attention to governance, compliance, business conduct, and adopting risk mitigation practices for long-term business stability, Sankar said, adding that any innovation should be "responsible and beneficial."
Persons: T Rabi Sankar, Sankar, Siddhi Nayak, Janane Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Bengaluru
The RBI's overnight variable rate reverse repo, or VRRR - usually undertaken to withdraw excess liquidity - saw a subscription of only 390 billion rupees ($4.73 billion) earlier in the day. "But overnight VRRRs should see healthy responses if they do not coincide with any major outflows." That lead to a sharp plunge in overnight rates, averaging comfortably below the central bank's repo rate of 6.50%. The RBI has been intending to maintain overnight rates - currently around 6.40% - around the repo rate and has been proactive in conducting reverse repos to achieve that. Reuters had reported in June that the central bank may resort to overnight VRRRs, with banks showing reluctance to park funds for a longer period.
Persons: Banks, Mataprasad Pandey, Shaktikanta Das, Dharamraj Dhutia, Nivedita Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
India’s push to democratise credit tests limits
  + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Yet barely half of them have active loans and only up to 10% have a credit card. That’s why the regulator is allowing the use of RuPay credit cards, the country’s low-cost answer to Mastercard (MA.N) and Visa (V.N), for UPI payments. Earlier, in June 2022, the central bank had allowed lenders to link RuPay credit cards to UPI accounts. HDFC Bank became the first private bank to go live on UPI with RuPay credit cards in February. Paytm tied up with SBI Cards and Payment Services in May to issue RuPay credit cards to its consumers via UPI, offering cashbacks on small-value payments.
Persons: It’s, Paytm, , Bernstein, Una Galani, Pranav Kiran, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, UPI, Google, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mastercard, Visa, Merchants, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Punjab National Bank, One97 Communications, Reserve Bank, Tiger, Uni, , Reserve Bank of India, SBI Cards, Services, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India, Punjab
MUMBAI, June 27 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit narrowed sharply in the January to March quarter, helped by a smaller trade gap and increased services exports, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Wednesday. The current account deficit (CAD) (INCURA=ECI) stood at $1.3 billion, or 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year, compared with the previous quarter's revised deficit of $16.8 billion, or 2% of GDP. The deficit had stood at $13.4 billion in the same period a year earlier, the data showed. Forecasts ranged widely, from a deficit of $5 billion to a surplus of $7.8 billion. For the 2022/23 fiscal year the current account balance showed a deficit of 2% of GDP versus a deficit of 1.2% in the preceding financial year as the trade deficit widened to $265.3 billion from $189.5 billion a year earlier.
Persons: Aditi Gupta, Baroda's Gupta, Siddhi Nayak, Sudipto Ganguly, Clarence Fernandez, David Goodman Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters Graphics, Baroda, Bank, Baroda's, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
Mega-merger gives Indian lender new lease on life
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), the country’s largest private lender, is set in July to complete its merger with its parent, partner and 26% shareholder Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) (HDFC.NS). That’s a great opportunity for the larger, streamlined HDFC Bank – until now it sold most home loans it originated to its parent. However, the share of mortgages in HDFC Bank’s portfolio will rise close to 30%, compared to SBI’s 20%. HDFC Bank remains a fixer-upper in a couple of important respects, though. Housing Development Finance Corporation created HDFC Bank in 1994 and remains a 26% shareholder.
Persons: Sashidhar Jagdishan, That’s, HDFC, Jagdishan, Breakingviews, Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HDFC Bank, Housing Development Finance Corporation, , Bank of India, Mahindra Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Asia, China, United States, watchdogs, Credila
MUMBAI, June 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher on Tuesday ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which analysts reckon may prove instrumental in the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.40 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.43 in the previous session. India's inflation was positive for the rupee "on the margins" and "now let's see how U.S. data plays out", the trader added. The U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, with economists polled by Reuters projecting a 0.4% on-month increase in the core inflation rate. The dollar index was barely changed at near 103.50 while the 2-year U.S. yield dropped to 4.55%.
Persons: Nimesh Vora, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: U.S, People's Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, ANZ, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, People's Bank of China, U.S
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