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Consumers Are Growing More Pessimistic About the Economy
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Tim Smart | Sept. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Consumers are growing more pessimistic about future prospects for the economy, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board released on Tuesday. “Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the expectations index, as the present situation index was little changed. “Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” Peterson added. “Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, , ” Peterson, “ Consumers, Kelly Mangold, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, , Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Development, Real Estate Consulting, MLS, American Financial Corporation
New York CNN —Stocks tumbled Tuesday after a slew of economic data stoked fears about the US economy’s cloudy outlook and further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 388 points, or 1.1%, its biggest one-day decline since March. The stock market remains in a bull market, however — it would need to fall 20% from its peak to enter bear territory. “The Fed will see the reacceleration of house prices as a reason to keep interest rates higher for longer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday in an interview with the Times of India that he is preparing the bank’s clients for a 7% interest rate scenario, further spooking investors.
Persons: Stocks, , Bill Adams, paring, Brent, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Comerica Bank, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, West Texas, JPMorgan, Times, Fitch Locations: New York, Times of India
The central bank's quest for a "soft landing" of more slowly rising prices and continued economic growth looks increasingly probable. In fact, the U.S. may hit a sweet spot just as the 2024 presidential election campaign crescendos next year. Rather than cheering, though, after years of economic turbulence since the coronavirus pandemic erupted in 2020, Americans grumble, at least if you ask them about the economy. With fast rising prices and the end of an array of pandemic-era government benefit programs, inflation-adjusted household income fell last year, and the poverty rate increased. A Biden adviser said the White House understands that the economy and inflation are a critical issue, and the campaign has a big media push planned on "Bidenomics."
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, crescendos, grumble, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter's, Ronald Reagan, George H, Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, Clinton, Biden, They've, that's, Robert Shiller, stupidly, Shiller, Powell, Howard Schneider, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Democrat, U.S . Consumer, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S
And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, , , Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington
One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .
Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan
Home prices could climb even higher over the next year, Zillow economists said. The real estate listings site revised its 12-month outlook for home prices, predicting a 4.9% increase by August 2024. That's slightly down from its 12-month home price outlook in July, when the firm predicted a 6.5% increase in home prices by July of next year. Experts have warned housing affordability is unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly. That could unlock more inventory to hit the housing market, but it's unlikely to happen anytime soon, with experts forecasting mortgage rates to end the year around 6%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Bankrate, Zillow, uptick Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.
Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's
Housing affordability is about to get even worse, thanks to the delayed impact of mortgage rates. In addition, some housing data come out with a two-month delay, they said on a podcast. That means that the spike in mortgage rates last month, when they hit the highest level since 2001, will take time to show up in purchases. Other experts have said affordability is unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly, which probably won't be happening anytime soon. Markets are expecting the Fed to keep interest rates elevated through the rest of the year as they monitor inflation, which could influence mortgage rates to stay elevated as well.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, it's, Morgan Stanley's Jim Egan, " Egan Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon
"We struggle to believe that the US at currently [circa] 60% of global market cap can continue its inexorable rise." The Shiller P/E ratio is a measure of how undervalued or overvalued the broader stock market is. Garthwaite attributed the overvalued nature of the market to the meteoric rise of technology stocks this year, especially the so-called Magnificent Seven, which includes Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla . This means the U.S. market is essentially overexposed to these seven stocks, which are seeing "extreme levels" for relative valuations, he said, in a note to clients that advised investors to underweight U.S. stocks. While Credit Suisse is still bullish on technology stocks, current high price-to-earnings multiples for the Magnificent Seven will be difficult to maintain, he said.
Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Garthwaite, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Credit Suisse, Tech Locations: U.S
John Hussman says stocks are due for substantial losses amid high valuations. Here's Hussman's favorite measure of valuation: total market cap of non-financial-sector stocks-to-total revenues of those stocks. Hussman FundsAnother valuation measure Hussman likes is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. Hussman Funds"Current market conditions create what we continue to view as a 'trap door' situation for the equity market. Another reason Hussman's outlook is so dire is that stock valuations remain high relative to where risk-free Treasury yields are.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Here's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Hussman, Fed, Treasury, America, Bank of America, Reserve
Louisiana successfully used a sort of subscription model to ensure access to antiviral drugs against hepatitis C for people on Medicaid and in prison, the Rebitzers wrote. Patients’ incentives to restrain health care spending are limited to whatever they spend on deductibles and co-pays. Health care is one of the only parts of the economy where “slightly worse but much cheaper” is not even on the mental map, the Rebitzers wrote. The adversarial approach to health insurance, in which insurers spend huge sums scrutinizing claims, is enormously wasteful, the Rebitzers wrote. Another idea: “Trusted third parties could manage and attest to the validity of payments, as with credit card payments.”The Rebitzers acknowledge that in health care, especially, economic incentives don’t always work.
Persons: laud, don’t, Robert Shiller, Organizations: American Board, Internal, ABIM, Yale Locations: Louisiana, Europe, United States
Low inventory, high mortgage rates, and high prices have created a difficult housing market. Low inventory, high mortgage rates, and high prices have put the housing market into a state of unaffordability that's weighing on house hunters, current homeowners, and even real estate investors. AdvertisementAdvertisementAs things stand, roughly one-quarter of homeowners are sitting on mortgage rates of less than 3%, near the highest on record. The seasonally-adjusted data showed prices climbed in every single city in the group's 20-city index. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices."
Persons: we've, Craig J, Lazzara, DJI, Daryl Fairweather, haven't, Shay Stein, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, Bill McBride Organizations: Homeowners, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Realtor.com
After falling nearly 7% from a cycle high in June 2022 - well short of predictions made late last year for a 12% peak-to-trough fall - average house prices started rising again in February and are now only around 1% below their peak. "While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have passed and we don't expect further sustained declines," said Andrew Burrell, chief property economist at Capital Economics. Average house prices were forecast to stagnate in 2024 despite predictions for a rate cut by the middle of the year. They were forecast to average 4.17 million units in the second half of this year, lower than 4.27 million in the previous poll. Despite a near 45% pandemic-era rise in house prices and the market starting to climb again, respondents were equally split on what would happen to purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers over the coming year.
Persons: Octavio Jones, Andrew Burrell, Brad Hunter, Hunter, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Hunter Housing Economics, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S
After first spiking above 7% earlier this month, 30-year mortgage rates are back down and hovering just under 7%. The June CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, released Tuesday, showed that high mortgage rates are continuing to affect home prices. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.23%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.55% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: CoreLogic, Selma Hepp, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Zillow Locations: Chevron
Below, we've compiled stories with tips for prospective homeowners, investors, and renters. And for those opting to continue renting since this path is increasingly cheaper than taking on a new mortgage payment, one piece shows where rents are falling the fastest. Sean Pavone/ShutterstockThis list from Scholaroo shows where prospective homeowners can find the cheapest combo of prices and property taxes relative to local incomes. John M Lund Photography Inc/Getty ImagesThis piece on an analysis by CoreLogic shows where investors are betting on most right now. Earlier in August, Goldman Sachs said they expect home prices on a national basis to grow another 1.8% this year.
Persons: we've, Goldman Sachs, hasn't, Sean Pavone, El Paso , Texas Denis Tangney Jr, Alan Diaz, Doug Ressler, John M, David Greene Organizations: CoreLogic, Service, AP, Kansas, John M Lund Locations: Wall, Silicon, El Paso , Texas, Kansas City , Missouri, Scholaroo
US home prices show signs of stabilizing, reports show
  + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Octavio Jones Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices showed further signs of stabilizing in June, according to two reports out Tuesday that signaled the lengthy run of softening sales prices may be bottoming out. Both reports showed prices rose modestly month-over-month. House prices rose 3.0% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, FHFA said. FHFA's data showed June’s year-over-year gains were strongest in the East North Central and New England regions, up by 5.4% and 6.8%, respectively. On a city basis, the Case-Shiller data showed Chicago and Cleveland experiencing the greatest price accelerations.
Persons: Octavio Jones, FHFA, , Anju Vajja, ” Craig Lazzara, DJI, Amina Niasse, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, FHFA’s Division of Research, Statistics, East North, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, “ U.S, East North Central, New England, Chicago, Cleveland
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCase-Shiller Index reveals 0% annual change in home prices despite rate hikes, says Robert ShillerRobert Shiller, Case-Shiller Index co-founder and professor of economics at Yale University, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss housing supply pressures on housing inventory keeping prices high, the Case-Shiller Index's estimates for future home prices, and the impact regulations on Airbnb and the secondary home rental market will have on supply.
Persons: Robert Shiller Robert Shiller Organizations: Yale University
Washington, DC CNN —Home prices rose again in June, marking the fifth successive month of gains, and remaining near the all-time highs notched a year ago. Prices rose 0.7% from the month before, according to seasonally adjusted data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index released Tuesday. While home prices have remained strong in 2023, stubbornly high mortgage rates complicate the situation for potential homebuyers, said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s chief economist. Home prices in San Francisco were down 9.7% from a year ago and Seattle prices fell by 8.8%. “Many existing homeowners remain on the sidelines of the market, content to stay put as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs,” said Jones.
Persons: , Craig Lazzara, Selma Hepp, Hannah Jones, Freddie Mac, Jones Organizations: DC CNN, Realtor.com, ” Builders, Locations: Washington, , Midwest, New England, Cities, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, West, San Francisco, Seattle
Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.
Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin
The National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that its housing affordability index fell during the second quarter to its lowest level on record. Not coincidentally, the first quarter of 2021 turned out to the be peak in housing affordability. The consequence has been the massive drop in housing affordability to new lows. But still, housing affordability is as low as it's been since at least 1986. Given its importance to the wider economy, a robust housing market will likely be a precondition to achieving a relatively seamless transition to long-term economic expansion.
Persons: It's, Freddie Mac, Justin Lahart, it's Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Fed
Regardless, the major averages are set to close a losing month as higher yields and Fitch downgrades weighed on equities this month. "Further cooling in the labor market and the services sector," said Brian Ellis, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The labor report will be preceded by the July personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, report on Thursday. In fact, many investors expect that the Federal Reserve is probably done hiking rates here as policymakers await the effects of higher rates on the real economy. Increasingly, investors are looking for opportunities in income as they deal with the possibility of higher rates for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jay Hatfield, Fitch downgrades, nonfarm, Brian Ellis, Powell, Morgan, Ellis, Ben Kirby, that's, Thornburg's Kirby, Campbell Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Capital Management, Dow Jones Industrial, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Thornburg Investment Management, Labor, Investors, Dallas Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, ADP, Costco, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Dollar, Broadcom, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, cautiousness, Smucker, Chicago
Home prices won't drop, and could surge 15% once mortgage rates fall, Barbara Corcoran says. There's a shortage of homes for sale as people don't want to give up their cheap mortgage rates. The housing market is in good shape, and buyers will pounce once rates drop, Corcoran says. In response to a massive inflation spike last year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from almost zero to more than 5% since last spring. In June, she suggested home prices could jump as much as 20% once interest rates drop by two percentage points.
Persons: Barbara Corcoran, Corcoran, it's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Corcoran Group Locations: Wall, Silicon, Florida
Investors should buy stocks ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. "While rates could be pushing higher, equities are showing early signs of diverging from higher rates." Lee analyzed market performance in the week after Jackson Hole speeches, and found that stocks typically move higher, not lower. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn six of those seven instances, stocks gained in the week after Jackson Hole by 0.5%-5%. Given the hawkish shift in investor expectations, I think this would further support a rise in equities," Lee said.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Tom Lee, Lee, Powell Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon, Fundstrat
Lowe's reported mixed fiscal second-quarter results on Tuesday, as consumers tackled springtime projects and helped offset weakening home improvement demand. It anticipates total sales will range between $87 billion and $89 billion for the period. It projects comparable sales will drop by 2% to 4% this fiscal year. Lowe's is more reliant on do-it-yourself shoppers for its sales than Home Depot is, but has tried to change that. Only about a quarter of Lowe's sales come from home professionals, while Home Depot typically gets about half of its sales from them.
Persons: Lowe's, Richard McPhail Organizations: Lowe's, Home, U.S . Mortgage Locations: Bloomsburg
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