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Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks during a moderated discussion hosted by the Economic Club of New York at 12 pm ET on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note reached its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, while 30-year Treasury yields breached the 5% mark. That’s a welcome development for the Fed, but officials aren’t quite yet ready to declare victory. Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, and officials have said they need to see further evidence of the economy cooling. Employers added a robust 336,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate held at a low 3.8% that month.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, That’s, , Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, Economic, of New, Treasury, ” San Francisco Fed, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: Washington, of New York, June’s, ” San, Israel
Consumers are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray told the FT. Higher bond yields are raising borrowing costs all over the economy, from mortgages to personal loans. AdvertisementAdvertisementAmerican consumers are about to feel the sting of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray said. Bond yields, which impact borrowing costs for all kinds of loan products, moved higher this week as investors fretted over higher-for-longer interest rates. In some corners of the economy, rising yields and higher borrowing costs have already been acutely felt.
Persons: Blackstone, Johnathan Gray, , Bond, Gray, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Treasury, Service, Financial Times, Mortgage, Federal, Federal Reserve, Consumers, San Francisco Fed
Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, grew 0.7% in September from the prior month. Factoring in September’s 0.4% rise in consumer prices, inflation-adjusted retail sales were up 0.3% last month. From a year earlier, retail sales and food services spending were up 3.8% in September, the strongest annual gain since February. Spending grew across most categories last month, with sales at specialty stores advancing the most, by 3%. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail sales still advanced 0.7% last month.
Persons: , BIll Adams, , Adams, US Energy Information Administration “, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Brian Field, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Joe Biden, Jordan Organizations: DC CNN, Comerica Bank, headwinds, UAW, United Auto Workers, US Energy Information Administration, Hamas, University of, San Francisco Fed, “ Retail, CNN, Employers, Sensormatic Solutions, Services, OPEC Locations: Washington, Israel, Iran
The boom in luxury goods is over as consumers pull back on their multiyear high-end spending spree. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn the US, card spending for luxury fashion has been on the decline for six quarters in a row, with luxury fashion spending down 16% year-over-year over the past quarter, Bank of America card data shows. Card spending on luxury fashion has declined for six quarters in a row. Bank of AmericaUS card spending on luxury fashion declined 16% year-per-year the past quarter, Bank of America forecasts. That's because European investors often say tech stocks are a competitor to luxury stocks in their portfolios, Colas said.
Persons: , LVMH, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Ralph Lauren, Colas, Kelly Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of America US, Industry, Consumers, San Francisco Fed, Tech Locations: LVMH, Paris
"Today we start the work to bring beloved Activision, Blizzard, and King franchises to Game Pass and other platforms," Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer said in a blog post . Microsoft has closed its $69 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard , according to a regulatory filing by the company Friday. Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick will stay on as CEO through the end of the year. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who took the helm in 2014, is aiming to diversify the company's business beyond its core areas such as operating systems and productivity software. WATCH: Microsoft deal with Activision Blizzard set to clear final hurdle
Persons: Phil Spencer, Tony Hawk, It's, Bobby Kotick, Satya Nadella, pushback, Victoria Graham, Activision Blizzard Organizations: Activision, Blizzard, Microsoft, Markets Authority, Federal Trade Commission, European Commission, Markets, Economic, Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, Sony, Nvidia, San, U.S, Appeals, Circuit, Ubisoft, FTC Locations: U.S, San Francisco federal
Americans are still shelling out cash for discretionary spending, despite concerns of a weakening consumer. Total card spending is likely up 4.5% year-per-year over the past 3 months, Bank of America forecasted. Americans likely ran out of their excess savings last quarter, the San Francisco Fed previously estimated. Bank of AmericaBofA's spending data paints a promising picture of a consumer that's humming along despite an uncertain economic outlook. According to a study from the San Francisco Fed, Americans may have run out of their excess savings at the end of last quarter.
Persons: , BofA, bode Organizations: Bank of America, San Francisco Fed, Service, Labor, San Francisco Locations: San Francisco Fed
Americans' excess household savings are much higher than previously thought. The household savings rate was revised from an annual average of 7.9% between 2017 and 2019 to 6.5%. This could be good news for the economyPrior to the revisions, though, many economists thought excess savings would run out quickly. A San Francisco Fed study updated in August estimated excess savings would likely be depleted during the third quarter of 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementPerhaps more excess savings than previously thought could cheer up some Americans gloomy about the economy.
Persons: , Société Générale, Bankrate Organizations: Service, Bureau, JPMorgan, BEA, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: San Francisco
The days of rising interest rates could soon be over
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
What’s happening: US Treasury rates are white hot — 10-year Treasury yields are near their highest levels since 2007. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. US mortgage rates are at 23 year-highs, and home affordability is at its lowest level since 1984.
Persons: haven’t, Philip Jefferson, ” That’s, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, , , ” Bostic, Mary Daly, Bonds, What’s, Birkenstock, Elisabeth Buchwald, Megan Penick, Robinson, Rachel Ramirez, It’s, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial, CME, Treasury, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, American Bankers Association, San Francisco Fed, Index, PPI, CPI, New York Stock Exchange, Renaissance, Nature Communications Locations: New York, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovenia
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly poses for a photograph at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S. August 25, 2023. "How much can the economy take in terms of rate increases so we can get the policy rate to a level that's reasonable to bring inflation down? She was describing the balancing act the Fed faces after raising the short-term policy rate from near zero to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of about 18 months. "I would say now the risks of how we balance those things are roughly balanced -- over-tightening versus under-tightening -- but we still have high inflation and the labor market's still strong," she said. "It's part of a large dashboard of data," she said, to which the Fed needs to be able to respond to with agility.
Persons: Mary Daly, Ann Saphir, Daly, Chris Reese, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, San, Chicago, Palestinian, Israel
Yahoo FinanceHowever, six leading fixed income investors are confident that the pain won't last much longer. Michele continued: "I've been doing this since 1981, so I've seen a decade of double-digit bond yields with disinflation. Alex Petrone, the director of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management, agreed that it's too soon to write off a recession. Nailing timing helps maximize returns, though fixed income experts said that's difficult because the Fed's policy decisions are unpredictable. Buying Treasuries and municipal coupons on both the long and short ends of the curve are how she recommends playing fixed income.
Persons: Jonathan Mondillo, you've, Bob Michele, Michele, I've, we'll, Federal Reserve —, Robert Robis, Robis, Alex Petrone, it's, Petrone, Mary Daly, David Schiffman, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Mondillo, Schiffman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, JPMorgan Asset Management, isn't, Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Rockefeller Asset Management, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Aquila Investment Management, Vanguard's Investment, Investment Locations: Scotland, bottoming, Abrdn, Aquila, Treasuries, CCC
Morning Bid: 'Remarkable' US markets surf crosscurrents
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Stock futures are higher once again ahead of the bell today. As cash Treasury markets returned from Monday's Columbus Day holiday to a week of heavy long-term debt auctions, they were also greeted with rekindled optimism about the Federal Reserve's policy rate trajectory. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are set to kick off Tuesday's U.S. trading day at some 4.65% - almost a quarter of a percentage point below the peak set just after Friday's blowout September jobs report. Elsewhere, PepsiCo (PEP.O) edged 0.8% higher ahead of the beverage maker's third-quarter results and Unity (U.N) jumped 6.4% after the video-game software maker said its CEO John Riccitiello would retire.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, Logan, Philip Jefferson chimed, John Riccitiello, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Columbus, Federal, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Fund, HK, Bloomberg, Alibaba, Baidu, PepsiCo, Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, PepsiCo NFIB Consumer, Reuters Messaging, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Marrakesh, China, Beijing, Minneapolis, San
"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York
So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.
Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, , Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens
The data in support of a college education is strong. So it can be increasingly difficult to determine if a college education is worth it. For many, a college degree is 'an insurance policy'With the statistical outcomes for college graduates so strong, it can be jarring for parents to face a child who tells them they don't want to go. "For many people, [a bachelor's degree] is an insurance policy." 'Look at college as a consumer'Earning your bachelor's degree is often expensive, which scares off a lot of students.
Persons: Tim Davis, Davis, it's, Erika Katz, Katz, , they're Organizations: College, San Francisco Fed, National Center for Education Statistics, University of Virginia, CNBC, Edge Research, Gates Foundation
Morning Bid: Oil soothes but jobs dictate
  + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
U.S. crude oil has recoiled almost 9% this week and prices have lost almost 14% peak-to-trough since last Thursday's high above $95 per barrel. The year-on-year oil price is now falling again and tracking losses of 5%. Copper prices fell to their lowest of the year on Thursday and core commodity indexes are back at August levels. All of which sees U.S. bond yields retain an uneasy calm into the jobs numbers. Implied rates from Fed futures markets pulled back the chances of another hike in the cycle to less than 50%.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mike Dolan, Mary Daly, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, Jim Jordan, Janet Yellen's, Christopher Waller, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, ADP, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, St, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Federal Reserve, Challenger, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Morocco, Canada
Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.
Persons: it's, , Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, , Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington
A soft inflation reading in the week ahead after Friday's jobs report could be the signal stocks need to turn around after their recent carnage from rising bond yields. Some market participants are hopeful stocks can start to rebound from their recent lows if next week's inflation reports confirm price pressures easing. The producer price index comes out Wednesday, while the consumer price index is due out Thursday. The September consumer price index that's due out Thursday is expected to show easing inflation. Export Price Index (September) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (October) Earnings: BlackRock , UnitedHealth Group , The PNC Financial Services Group , JPMorgan Chase , W ells Fargo , Citigroup
Persons: Stocks, Jim Lebenthal, Lebenthal, Dow Jones, it's, Mary Daly, we'll, Hogan, Wells, BlackRock, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Cerity Partners, CPI, PPI, Treasury, Dow, San Francisco Fed, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, PepsiCo, Treasury Budget, Delta Air Lines, Walgreens, Alliance, Price, UnitedHealth Group, PNC Financial Services Group, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan
A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.
Persons: , Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich
The Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday it is seeking a court order that would compel Elon Musk to testify as part of an investigation into his purchase of Twitter, now called X. But “two days before his scheduled testimony, Musk abruptly notified the SEC staff that he would not appear,” said the agency’s filing. “Musk attempted to justify his refusal to comply with the subpoena by raising, for the first time, several spurious objections, including an objection to San Francisco as an appropriate testimony location.”X is based in San Francisco. The SEC said on Sept. 24, Musk’s lawyers responded by saying Musk would not appear for testimony in any location. A hearing on the matter is tentatively scheduled for Nov. 9 in San Francisco.
Persons: Elon Musk, Musk, , “ Musk, San, Alex Spiro, Andrew Carter, Musk's, Carter, Walter Isaacson Organizations: Securities, Exchange Commission, Twitter, SEC, District Locations: San Francisco federal, San Francisco, New York, Oklahoma, U.S, Fort Worth , Texas,
We're buying 75 shares of Oracle (ORCL) at roughly $107.96 each. Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 650 shares of ORCL, increasing its weighting to 2.54% from 2.26%. That's why we are buying more Oracle — bulking up our position size into the stock's recent weakness. Oracle stock pulled back in September after the company missed on quarterly revenue estimates and provided an outlook that failed to live up to lofty expectations. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Mary Daly, Daly, Safra Catz, Catz, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Oracle, ORCL, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York City
Friday's monthly payrolls report could be the week's most important economic news, however, investors remained concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. Stocks ended well off their weakest levels of the session, and strategists noted the S&P 500 was holding above its 200-day moving average, currently at around 4,206. After recent market weakness, investors are keen for third-quarter earnings reports to kick off mid-month. S&P 500 company earnings overall are expected to have risen 1.6% year-over-year for the quarter, according to LSEG IBES data. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 39 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 24 new highs and 330 new lows.
Persons: Stocks, Mary Daly, Peter Cardillo, Brendan McDermid, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Benchmark U.S, Treasury, Spartan Capital Securities, San Francisco Fed Bank, Economic, of New, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Dell Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York, of New York, U.S, New York City, Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: The need for further Fed tightening has diminishedCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the latest statement from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly covering monetary policy and the status of inflation.
Persons: Mary Daly, Steve Liesman Organizations: San, Fed, San Francisco Fed
The filing Thursday in San Francisco federal court seeks a judge’s order requiring Musk to testify, alleging “blatant refusal to comply” with an earlier SEC subpoena. Musk testified twice as part of the SEC’s investigation in July 2022, according to the agency. The SEC served Musk with a subpoena to testify again in the matter in May 2023, according to the court filing. The current subpoena at issue seeks evidence and testimony from Musk that the SEC does not yet possess, the agency said. The SEC attempted to negotiate with Musk to find alternative dates later this fall, according to court documents.
Persons: Elon Musk, Musk, , , Alex Spiro, , Spiro, Walter Isaacson’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Twitter, SEC, Inc Locations: New York, San Francisco federal
Banks that hiked yields in the final stretch of the third quarter include Bread Financial , which is now offering an annual percentage yield of 5.6% for a 1-year CD. One basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. "We expect at least one more guide up from bank management teams on deposit betas as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck. Those factors include competition from money market funds for depositors' dollars, and lower-yielding CDs repricing at higher rates, she added. The San Francisco Fed forecast that the last of these dollars would be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
Persons: Stephens, Vincent Caintic, Banks, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bread, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Stephens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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