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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Rate-sensitive stocks including Tesla (TSLA.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell between 1.5% and 3.0% as the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields , scaled multi-year highs. The benchmark interest rate could be hiked one more time in 2023 to a peak range of 5.50%-5.75%, while monetary policy could stay tighter than was expected through 2024, the Fed's updated quarterly projections showed. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 7.06-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 3.86-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded seven new highs and 207 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Rupert Murdoch, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, FedEx, Broadcom, Google, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Marvell Technology, SOX, Wall, Research, Arm Holdings, Dow Jones, Fox Corp, News Corp, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Wall Street moves sideways as investors look to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. Financial markets have currently baked in a 99% certainty that the Fed will hold the key rate at 5.25%-5.00% on Wednesday. British chipmaker Arm Holdings slid 4.5% after Bernstein initiated coverage with an "underperform" rating just days after its stellar debut. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.22-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.74-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 6 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 247 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bernstein, Jerome, Powell, Peter Tuz, Janet Yellen, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Piper, Stephen Culp, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Holdings, Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, U.S . Federal, Chase Investment, Markets, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, Energy, Tesla Inc, Corp, Arm Holdings, Paypal Holdings, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S ., Charlottesville , Virginia, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Last Fed hike tends to aid stocks, but some have doubts this time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The market will probably cheer it a bit if it is the end of the Fed rate hike cycle," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Traders see a roughly two-out-of three chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in November, CME's data showed. Odds for December show about a 60% chance rates of rates staying at current levels. Analysts at Oxford Economics forecast further downside for global earnings, noting that stocks "have typically delivered far weaker returns following the final Fed rate hike when it has coincided with an EPS downturn." "But I'm not sure how sustainable it would be given where stocks are valued relative to bonds already."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, CFRA, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jerome Powell, Sam Stovall, LSEG Datastream, Jack Ablin, I'm, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Oxford Economics, Equity, Treasury, Cresset, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Oxford

☆ Wall Street gains, dollar eases ahead of CPI report
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] People are seen on Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 19, 2021. The relatively languid session appeared to be the calm before a storm of U.S. economic data this week, with Wednesday's crucial consumer prices report (CPI) paramount. "Investors are focusing on how they will respond to Wednesday's CPI report," Stovall added. Emerging market stocks rose 0.48%. Gold prices headed higher in opposition to the dollar.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, Brent, Stephen Culp, Amanda Cooper, William Maclean, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of, Nasdaq, Tesla Inc, CFRA Research, CPI, U.S, Financial, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Bank's, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, New York, U.S . Federal, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Russian, Saudi, London

With U.S. crude oil prices rallying on Tuesday, Nolte also cited recent strength in oil prices as a damper to the Fed's efforts to push inflation back to 2%. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. The Dow Jones Transport index (.DJT) finished off 2.2%, weighed down by a slide in airline stocks as rising oil prices implied higher fuel costs. Shares of Airbnb (ABNB.O) rallied 7% while Blackstone (BX.N) added 3.6% on news that their stocks would join the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 142 new lows.

Persons: Blackstone, Christopher Waller, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Nolte, Sam Stovall, Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, advancers, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Dasgupta, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Monday, Monday . U.S, Treasury, Sylvest Wealth Management, Traders, Labor, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Transport, United Airlines, U.S, Blackstone, Oracle, Barclays, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Monday ., Elmhurst , Illinois, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Stocks will try to keep momentum, but September seasonality and other headwinds await
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks are looking to maintain momentum in the holiday-shortened week ahead even as Wall Street contends with a seasonally weak period for markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Some technical indicators have investors hopeful the bullish momentum could continue in the week ahead. For example, the major indexes broke above their respective 50-day moving averages this past week — a sign of improving short-term momentum. Central bank policymakers convene for a two-day meeting starting Sept. 19 and announce their interest rate decision Sept. 20. Week ahead calendar All times are ET.

Persons: Sam Stovall, We've, Ryan Detrick, Quincy Krosby, CFRA, —, HSBC's Max Kettner, Savita Subramanian, John Luke Tyner, Carson Group's Detrick, Detrick, FactSet, Kroger Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, Dow, Carson Group, Fed, LPL, Bank of America, Aptus Capital Advisors, Labor, PMI, PMI Services, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, CFRA, China

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched their highest in over two weeks during the session after the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed the number of job openings stood at 8.827 million in July, falling for the third straight month and signaling easing labor market pressures. Interest rate futures signaled an 87% chance the Fed will keep rates steady at its September meeting and a 54% chance it will keep rates on hold through November, according the CME Group's FedWatch tool. "Investors are of the mindset that 'You know what, maybe interest rate hikes are indeed behind us. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 64.39 points, or 1.45%, to end at 4,497.70 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 239.36 points, or 1.74%, to 13,943.37.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Elliott, let's, Sam Stovall, Jerome Powell's, drugmaker, Shristi Achar, Noel Randewich, Shounak Dasgupta, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tesla, Nvidia, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Labor, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, Apple, Google, Elliott Investment Management, Verizon, Citi, PDD Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland, Calif

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, 11 rose, led by communication services (.SPLRCL), up 2.22%, followed by a 2.1% gain in information technology (.SPLRCT). The S&P 500 was up 1.30% at 4,491.03 points. Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 7.6-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 17 new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 100 new lows.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Elliott, let's, Sam Stovall, Jerome Powell's, drugmaker, Shristi Achar, Noel Randewich, Shounak Dasgupta, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Dow, Wall, Tesla, Nvidia, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, CFRA Research, Google, Elliott Investment Management, Dow Jones, Verizon, Citi, PDD Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Bengaluru, Oakland, Calif

☆ It was a poor month for the Nasdaq. History shows it could get worse before it gets better
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

August is shaping up to be a poor month for the Nasdaq Composite, but history suggests that it will only get worse before it gets better. The Nasdaq Composite is headed for its worst month since May, down more than 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 were down more than 2% and 3%, respectively. September is actually the only month out of the year that the Nasdaq Composite averages a negative return, as well as the lowest rate of advance. On Monday, however, the Nasdaq Composite appeared to consolidate somewhat from its August lows.

Persons: It's, Sam Stovall, Stovall, John Roque, NVDA, manna, sloppily, Roque, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, Research, Meta

☆ The August sell-off has the market testing some key levels. Here's a breakdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The August sell-off has stocks testing some key technical levels, spurring investors to watch where equities will go next. Now, investors are watching to see where the S & P 500 goes next. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year The strategist said this threshold is a key support as it's a convergence of several trends in the market. The S & P 500 fell to roughly 3,800 in March before resuming its march upward. A combination of technical factors imply that the S & P may test the 4,200 level but might not break significantly below that."

Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: China

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation and rate hikes aren’t over, warns the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Losing streakU.S. markets fell for a second straight day and Treasury yields rose as traders digested hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve. Inflation relief for the U.K.U.K. headline inflation in July dropped to 6.8% year on year, in line with economists' forecast. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields — which are typically more sensitive to interest rate changes — rose in response to the minutes.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Bob Pisani, Quincy Krosby, Sam Stovall, Tesla — Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Getty, CNBC, Federal, Federal Reserve, General Motors, LPL, Treasury, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CFRA Research, Big Tech, Nvidia, Tesla Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Stock futures are little changed Wednesday night: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 16, 2023 in New York City. Stock futures were near flat on Wednesday night as investors digested the Federal Reserve's latest commentary that future rate hikes are not out of the picture. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 20 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures traded near the flat line, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched lower by 0.07%. Wolfspeed plunged 14% following the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, which missed expectations on the bottom line.

Persons: Wolfspeed, Sam Stovall Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Computer, Cisco Systems, Dow, CFRA, Walmart, Ross, Applied, Keysight Technologies, Traders Locations: New York City

☆ Retailers take center stage in the week ahead, as Wall Street turns to the consumer for a much-needed boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

A raft of economic data and big retail earnings reports next week will give traders insight into the strength of the consumer after a mixed batch of inflation data. "Next week is all about the consumer," said Shannon Saccocia, investment chief at NB Private Wealth. The Nasdaq Composite fell for a second straight week for the first time in 2023 after mixed inflation data this week, as well as Moody's downgrading several regional banks. July's consumer price index came in weaker than expected, but continued to show some underlying stickiness. Housing data expected to show strength Investors will also watch data on what has been a strong housing market.

Persons: Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, —, we've, John Porter, it's, Wealth's Saccocia, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Versace, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors, That's, Sam Stovall, Stovall, CFRA's Stovall, Estee Organizations: Home Depot, Walmart, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Newton Investment Management, FactSet, . Discount, TJX Companies, Ross, Homeowners, Price, Retail, Health, Home, Agilent Technologies, Housing, Manufacturing, TJX, Target, Cisco Systems, Philadelphia Fed, Applied, Deere, Co, Companies, Palo Alto Locations: U.S, NAHB, Housing States

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The ratings agency also warned that the sector's credit strength would likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. Big banks Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) eased 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively, in premarket trading, while Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp shed 2.3% each. "It also means that the concern that we had in March over those three bank defaults, is not over yet." Remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Richmond Fed President Barkin will be closely watched for cues about the U.S. central bank's rate path after mixed messages from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eli Lilly, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Sam Stovall, Chris Montagu, Thursday's, Harker, Barkin, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, LLY.N, Zachary Kirkhorn, Elon Musk, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Sriraj Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Truist, Bank of America, U.S . Bancorp, U.S . Treasury, CFRA, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Citi, Wall Street, Dow e, Philadelphia, Richmond Fed, New York Fed, United Parcel Service, Elon Musk ., Alibaba, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon, Richmond, New, Elon Musk . U.S, Bilibili, Bengaluru

☆ Test is underway to see how low markets can go
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Right now, the S & P 500 is only 2.4% off its closing high on July 31. You'd think the stock market run would kill the big inflows into money market funds that happened in the first half of the year, but you'd be wrong. Money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. U.S. money market fund assets hit $6.7 trillion, the highest level in more than 13 years. There have been renewed inflows into energy, which is on a tear due to tighter oil supplies, and the equal-weight S & P 500 ( RSP ), all signs that the "broadening out" story is still alive.

Persons: Fitch, Sam Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Gold, You'd, Goldman Sachs, It's Organizations: Nasdaq

☆ Inflation takes center stage in the week ahead as Wall Street looks for more clues on Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

New inflation data set for release in the week ahead could help Wall Street regain its footing. However, he does not expect that the inflation data releasing next week will be very threatening, even if they show a slight rise from the prior reading. A smattering of results will roll out in the week ahead including from major firms like the Walt Disney Company, which reports Wednesday. Other economic data Investors will digest other major economic data in the week ahead. Hourly earnings (July) Earnings: RL Friday, Aug. 11 8:30 a.m. PPI (July) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (August)

Persons: it's, Jack Ablin, Ablin, McCormick, Archer, CFRA'S Sam Stovall, FactSet, Stovall, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Tyson, Eli Lilly, Fox Organizations: Federal, PPI, Cresset, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Daniels, Midland, Chevron, Investments, Walt Disney Company, Wynn Resorts, Dow, Consumer Credit, Tyson Foods, Paramount, Parcel Service, CPI Locations: U.S, Michigan

☆ US investors are searching overseas for opportunities
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Despite the gains in US stocks this year, some investors are looking for opportunities elsewhere. That’s despite what’s been shaping up to be a banner year for the US stock market — at least prior to this week’s US credit rating downgrade (more on that below). But some investors say that cheaper valuations for non-US stocks, compared to their domestic counterparts, are enticing some on Wall Street to look for deals overseas. The S&P 500 index currently trades at about 19.6 times its expected earnings, according to FactSet. That MSCI All Country World ex USA index has risen roughly 9% on a US dollar basis, underperforming the S&P 500.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, That’s, what’s, ”, Adam Turnquist, China’s, Jimmy Lee, bode, Fitch, ” Richard Francis, CNN’s Matt Egan, Francis, “, ” Francis, Janet Yellen, Obama, Jason Furman, Larry Summers, Read, Sam Stovall Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, LPL, Global, The Wealth Consulting, America, Fitch, Treasury Department, AAA

☆ 'A short-term glitch:' Wall Street pros shrug off the effect of Fitch's downgrade on markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points Wednesday after the downgrade as traders weighed the move. US10Y 1Y mountain 10-year yield 1-year However, Wall Street strategists mostly took the downgrade in stride. The S & P 500's 17% rally this year and the Nasdaq Composite's 33% advance had some traders worrying that equities have surged "too far, too fast." Stovall's S & P 500 year-end target is at 4,575 . Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius said Tuesday the downgrade will have "little direct impact" on financial markets.

Persons: Fitch, Janet Yellen, Sam Stovall, Stovall's, Wells Fargo's Christopher Harvey, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Steven Zeng, Management's Yung, Yu Ma, Ma, CFRA's Stovall, Deutsche Bank's Zeng, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S ., Fitch, AAA, Dow Jones, Treasury, Street, Nasdaq, Deutsche, BMO Locations: Washington, U.S, Tuesday's

Bank of America (BAC.N) rose marginally in premarket trading after the lender posted a 20% surge in second-quarter profit, while Morgan Stanley's (MS.N) shares pared early gains after the bank's profit slipped 18%, hurt by a deal-making drought. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has fallen 5.2% so far this year, underperforming the S&P 500 index (.SPX) which has notched a 17.8% gain after the biggest banking crisis since 2008 earlier this year took down three lenders and pummeled the sector. Overall earnings across industries are expected to decline 8.1% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3.75 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 26.25 points, or 0.17%. Pinterest (PINS.N) gained 3.3% as Evercore ISI upgraded its rating on the stock to "outperform" and Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) climbed 1.1% after Bank of America added the chipmaker to its U.S. No.1 list.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Sam Stovall, Wells, Lockheed Martin, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Nivedita Bhattacharjee Organizations: Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, CFRA Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services, Lockheed, Dow e, Federal Reserve, ISI, Marvell Technology, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York, Bengaluru

☆ Investors count on upward market momentum in the week ahead as earnings rain down
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks could continue to gain momentum in the week ahead as traders turn their attention to earnings results after the past week's softer inflation news. The major benchmarks are headed for a positive week Friday after encouraging consumer and wholesale inflation in June cemented the likelihood that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its rate-hiking campaign. Some market participants expect this period could mark the trough for earnings, and urge traders to pay more attention to forward guidance. "And that's a great sign for the market and market health." ET: NAHB housing market index (July) Earnings: Bank of America , Morgan Stanley , Bank of N.Y. Mellon , Lockheed Martin , PNC Financial , J.B. Hunt Wednesday 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Sage, Rob Williams, Sam Stovall, gee, Stovall, It's, Yung, Yu Ma, MRB, Sage Advisory's Williams, Williams, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Baird's Ross Mayfield, Lockheed Martin, Baker Hughes, Goldman Sachs, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, Johnson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Reserve, Open, BMO Wealth Management's, MRB Partners, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Bank, N.Y, Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, J.B, Hunt, Housing, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, Halliburton, Las Vegas Sands, IBM, Tesla, Netflix, American Airlines, United Airlines, CSX, Comerica, PPG, Roper Technologies, American Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas, Horton

Recent inflation data points to a strong economy that could propel the S & P 500 to break the 5,000-point threshold by the end of 2023, according to Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network. June data for two closely watched inflation gauges released this week, the consumer price index and producer price index , showed costs easing across the board. That signals to Essele the S & P 500 can keep charging upward, with his prediction of the 5,000 level being reached implying the S & P 500 will gain another 11.8% from Wednesday's close. The S & P 500 has already had a stellar year, rising 17%. We could easily see the S & P 500 top 5,000 by the end of the year."

Persons: Peter Essele, Essele, Sam Stovall, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Commonwealth Financial Network, CPI, PPI, CNBC Locations: Wednesday's

☆ Midyear outlook: Why market history says to expect 'outsize' performance in the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"Really good first halves like the one we just had tends to lead to outsize performance for the second half of the year," says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. No one knows for certain what the second half of the year will bring, but market history suggests that the party may just be getting started. In the first six months of this year, the S&P 500 logged a total return of more than 16%. In fact, I doubt we do that over the second half of this year," he says. Opinions vary widely among market soothsayers, but in aggregate they expect the S&P 500 to shed 6% from July through December.

Persons: Ryan Detrick, Detrick, we've, Sam Stovall, Stovall, wouldn't, Warren Buffett Organizations: Carson, Bloomberg, Wall Street

That compares with a 14.8% gain for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX). Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) combined account for 43.8% weight in the index, according to Refinitiv data as of Monday's close. The special rebalancing may be conducted at any time if the aggregate weight of companies, each having more than 4.5% weight in the index, tops 48%, according to Nasdaq. COULD THE S&P 500 FOLLOW SUIT? Apple and Microsoft are the only two firms with weight over 4.5% in the S&P 500.

Persons: Hogan, Cameron Lilja, Dow, Wells, Sam Stovall, Sruthi Shankar, Medha Singh, Bansari, David Randall, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Riley, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Dow Jones, Tesla, Booking Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Devices, CFRA, Thomson Locations: Wells, Gilead, Bengaluru, New York

☆ Global stocks index flat, Dollar falls on mixed U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Still, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, the same as May. On Thursday, private payroll provider ADP's strong U.S. labor market data had sparked an equities sell-off and boosted Treasury yields. While Friday's government data was initially met with a more muted market reaction, stocks gained some ground during the session before losing ground again in afternoon trading. The dollar slumped after the labor market data as some traders were betting that the Fed could cut rates sooner than previously expected. The dollar index fell 0.795%, with the euro up 0.73% to $1.0965.

Persons: Mike Segar, nonfarm payrolls, Quincy Krosby, payrolls, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Caroline Valetkevitch, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, Tom Westbrook, Andrew Heavens, David Holmes, Will Dunham, David Evans Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, London, Sydney

☆ This classic recession indicator just hit its lowest level since 1981—here's what it means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

So when the yield curve does make headlines, it's generally because it's setting off some alarm bells among market watchers. In general terms, that means short-term bonds are paying higher interest rates than long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a classic signal that a recession is on the horizon. An inverted yield curve makes the math unprofitable for banks in many cases. But in another sense, an inverted yield curve presaging a recession is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Persons: It's, Megan Horneman, Sam Stovall, doesn't, Stovall, Banks Organizations: Verdence Capital Advisors, Federal Reserve

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