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☆ Wall Street braces for a turbulent October with jobs report on deck next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, —, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago

☆ Stocks and bonds are at odds on what happens next after Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third quarter, the S & P 500 has popped 4.7%, while the Dow is higher by 7.7%. "The bond market has the fed funds rate being cut below 3% in 2025," Johnston, the firm's head of derivatives and cross asset strategy, wrote in a note Monday. On Monday, S & P Global said its U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to a 15-month low in September — while its services sector gauge showed expansion. He likes put spreads on the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) expiring Oct. 31. If history is any guide, it'll most likely be the bond market.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Johnston Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, P Global, Trust Locations: —

☆ A market hedge using options with the S&P 500 up nearly 20% for the year heading into October
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

New all-time highs in the S & P 500 have been welcomed by investors in the wake of the Federal Reserve going big on their first rate cut. The SPDR S & P 500 (SPY) is up nearly 20% year to date, I want to spend some of my remarkable 2024 profits on downside protection in the event a breather to the rally or a downturn is imminent. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year-to-date Measuring risk is always a challenge, specifically when various headwinds exist at the same time. Additionally, this is the richest valuation we have seen in quite some time with the S & P 500 trading at 24 times. I will look to potentially buy the $591 call if we see a 2% move lower in the S & P 500.

Persons: Jamie Dimon Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Vaguely reassuring Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "We still have a strong, healthy labor market. But I want to keep it a strong, healthy labor market." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was more circumspect.

Persons: IXIC BRBY, Jerome Powell, Michael Nagle, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, yesterday's Fedspeak, Dow, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Minneapolis, Atlanta Fed, National Association of State, Chicago Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: New York, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Some aren’t convinced of a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stephanie Keith | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. Last week's burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed's rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like GDP figures for the second quarter, consumer confidence and PCE report.

Persons: Stephanie Keith, It's, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, –, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Friday, FedEx, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York City

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Recession concerns still linger
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. Last week's burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed's rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like the preliminary measure of PMI, consumer confidence and PCE report.

Persons: QCOM, Brendan McDermid, It's, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, –, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Friday, FedEx, Nasdaq, Dow, PMI Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ This trade can hedge against a spike in volatility as election nears, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, fell below 16 on Monday and is now flirting with its lowest level since the July doldrums. "Our historical study of volatility shows that the VIX averaged 22 points in October, 4 points above the current VIX level. We believe the low implied volatility, upcoming October earnings season and elections provide an attractive opportunity for investors to hedge a potential rise in volatility," the note said. The options would have a strike price of 18 and expire in November, serving as a bet that expectations of volatility will rise as the election nears. There are no additional losses on the trade if the VIX actually declines instead.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Arun Prakash, Prakash, VIX, seasonality Organizations: U.S

☆ From frustration to excitement: The long, winding road of Alphabet's self-driving Waymo unit
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

A long road It's been a long and winding road for Waymo since its inception in 2009 as Google's self-driving car project. The robotaxi service now has about 700 autonomous vehicles on the road across its markets. That changed about a year ago , when Uber added Waymo vehicles to its app. In February, Waymo recalled 444 of its vehicles after two Waymo vehicles hit a towed pickup truck in Phoenix. A Waymo autonomous self-driving Jaguar electric vehicle sits parked at an EVgo charging station in Los Angeles, California, on May 15, 2024.

Persons: Uber, Waymo, Tesla, it's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Morgan Stanley, Cowen, Cowen's — Bernstein, Brad Erickson, Andreessen Horowitz, Alphabet's, Ruth Porat, Erickson, Dara Khosrowshahi, Cruise, Uber's Khosrowshahi, Ethan Teicher, Tesla's, Jim Cramer's, Patrick T, Fallon Organizations: Waymo, Austin, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Bank of America, Aurora Innovation, General Motors, AFP, Getty Locations: West Coast, Atlanta, Austin , Texas, Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, U.S, Waymo, Austin, San Francisco , Los Angeles, Los Angeles , California

☆ What Warren Buffett's recent moves say – and don’t say – about today’s market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

And so it is with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway slashing its holdings in Apple and Bank of America in recent months. Buffett himself has indicated in recent years that he doesn't see an abundance of compelling value on offer in the public markets. But this in itself isn't much of a clue about future market prospects or the macroeconomic moment. Borgato says he believes "Buffett wants to leave a Berkshire behind that requires [fewer] future cash allocation decisions, not more." I'm not a buyer of the "cash on the sidelines" case for expecting money market assets to drain into stocks.

Persons: –, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Ed Borgato, it's, pare Berkshire's, Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway, BRK.B QUAL, Ajit Jain, Trump, Borgato, Jared Woodard Organizations: Apple, Bank of America, Bank of, Buffett, Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway, Washington Locations: Berkshire's, Berkshire, Apple, –

☆ FedEx creates a hurdle for stock market bulls with the Dow at record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That rally may not be sustainable, based on the venerable " Dow Theory ." The century-old Dow Theory looks at the relationship between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports , and argues that market trends must be confirmed by both groups. In other words, if the Dow Industrials are going lower, then Transports most also be falling to confirm a prolonged negative run. Right now, investors are presented with the Dow Industrials at all-time highs and Transports barely positive for the year. FDX 5D mountain FDX year to date To be sure, other market trends paint a more positive picture.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Mark Mahaney Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Dow Transports, Transports, FedEx, UPS, Tech, Energy, NBA

☆ The big post-Fed rally could get tested in week ahead: 'A lot holds in the balance' of the next few days
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 42,000 this week for the first time ever, while the S & P 500 breached the 5,700 milestone, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-percentage point. "A lot holds in the balance of the next couple or few days," said Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 On Friday, the 30-stock Dow, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each closed higher by more than 1% for the week. The breakout is "'pending confirmation,'" Stockton said. Overall, Stockton expects that the longer-term setup for the S & P 500 is "a bit overdone."

Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, That's, Sam Stovall, Gee, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Stockton, CFRA, Fed, Chicago, PMI, Richmond Fed, New, Micron Technology, Transportation, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, PCE Deflator, PCE Locations: . Kansas, Michigan

☆ A way to play the too-hot utilities trade now that rate cuts have begun
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors looking to participate in a new growth phase for electricity demand by purchasing the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) might be discouraged by its massive run over the past year. We'll review a way to play it with options that adds a buffer of protection. XLU .SPX mountain 2023-10-23 Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund since October low Despite this strong performance, the utilities select sector index still trades at just over 19 times forward earnings, a much cheaper multiple than the S & P's 23.5 times, and typically trades with significantly lower volatility as well. Spurring the economy will likely increase demand, but lowering rates improves the relative attractiveness of utilities for fixed-income investors as well. The trade XLU has an annual dividend yield of 2.8% and would make a fine addition to one's portfolio.

Persons: EVs Organizations: Utilities, Fund, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets seemed taken aback by the 50-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC

☆ There's a new biggest bull on Wall Street as BMO raises year-end S&P 500 target to 6,100
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chief investment strategist Brian Belski lifted his year-end target for the broad index by 500 points to 6,100. That new forecast implies the S & P 500 can climb 8.6% from Wednesday's close. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Belski said his update came after yet another rebound in equities pushed the index to trade around his prior target. Even if the S & P 500 tests lows seen during September's choppy trading, the investing strategist said he remains confident that it can rise into year-end. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 19% in 2024.

Persons: Brian Belski, It's, Belski, What's Organizations: BMO, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: Wednesday's, U.S

☆ Market Navigator: Bullish setup in the SPX charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Bullish setup in the SPX chartsJessica Inskip, StockBrokers.com director of investor research, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the market technicals in play.

Persons: Jessica Inskip

☆ Wells Fargo says don't buy this rally, fundamentals don't support it
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

But Wells Fargo cautioned that the pop is detached from reality. However, the benefits of easing policy may not be truly felt until next year due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election, Wells said. The Wall Street bank said the S & P 500 is likely to be range bound in the coming months and it is already trading toward the top of the range. Wells sees the S & P 500 finishing 2024 at 5,200, 7% below Wednesday's closing level. Its target is one of the lowest forecasts among Wall Street strategists, who on average project the benchmark ending the year at 5,571, according to CNBC Pro's market strategist survey.

Persons: Stocks, Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, Wells, Wren Organizations: Street, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets need time to digest the 50-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, –, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC

☆ It’s Fed decision day, and investors aren’t 100% sure what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders across Wall Street expect the Fed to lower rates, ending the tightening cycle that began in March 2022. That said, investors aren't sure how big the rate reduction will be. To be sure, it closed more than 30 points below the closing all-time high of 5,634.58 set in July. We tend to agree with that, but also think the setup for a 'false breakout' remains high," wrote Krinsky. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning , Barclays upgraded VF Corp to overweight from equal weight.

Persons: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna, Jonathan Krinsky, It's, Adrienne Yih Organizations: Federal, Traders, Barclays, Corp

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Hoping for a 50-basis-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Without any warning signs flashing red, it's difficult for the Fed to justify lowering rates by more than a quarter point. That's why some economists and analysts hope the Fed will cut by half a point. "But I suspect they'll cut 25," Zandi added.

Persons: Anna Moneymaker, Mark Zandi, they'll, Zandi, Hope, Jeff Cox, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Moody's Locations: Washington , DC, U.S

☆ Traders got their big-rate-cut wish and markets still couldn't rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street got the big rate cut it wanted, but markets failed to sustain a rally. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its key overnight lending rate by a half percentage point . Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the half-point cut suggests slowing growth is increasingly concerning Fed policy makers. "The Fed is likely worried that labor demand would weaken more, causing additional stress points in the labor market." "A larger cut probably was not needed out of the gate, but that should support risk-on asset allocation."

Persons: Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Nancy Tengler, Tengler, Scott Helfstein, Jeff Cox, Michelle Fox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Fed, Global

☆ Biotech stocks are an unappreciated way to profit from lower rates, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Biotechnology stocks offer an under-the-radar and unappreciated way to profit from the central bank's looming campaign to start cutting the cost of borrowing, according to Goldman Sachs. Investors may have already begun to anticipate the effect of lower rates on some biotech companies. IBB .SPX mountain 2024-06-30 The iShares Biotechnology ETF has risen more than twice as much as the S & P 500 this quarter. The iShares Biotech ETF is up 7.7% this quarter while the Nasdaq Biotech Index has advanced 7.4%, more than double the 3.2% gain in the S & P 500 since June 30. Year-to-date, Regeneron is up 30.6% and Vertex by 18.3%, both outperforming the 18.1% rise in the S & P 500.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Flood, Goldman, Flood, Regeneron Organizations: Biotechnology, Federal Reserve, Gilead Sciences, Nasdaq Biotechnology, IQVIA Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Amgen, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, iShares Biotech, Nasdaq Biotech Locations: Gilead

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Hoping for a half-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Without any warning signs flashing red, it's difficult for the Fed to justify lowering rates by more than a quarter point. That's why some economists and analysts hope the Fed will cut by half a point. "But I suspect they'll cut 25," Zandi added.

Persons: Anna Moneymaker, Mark Zandi, they'll, Zandi, Hope, Jeff Cox, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Moody's Locations: Washington , DC, U.S

☆ Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Last week, markets expected a quarter-point rate cut and were just happy that the Fed was starting the cutting cycle. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And fed funds futures now point a majority of traders seeing a half point cut. Even though most Fed officials and economists believe the central bank would start with a quarter point. But now we've gone from that fear to expecting a half point. On the other hand, the JPMorgan traders think that a cut of a quarter point would "add to market uncertainty," meaning that we probably shouldn't expect the market to keep building on its all-time highs with a quarter point.

Persons: wouldn't, Michael Feroli, CNBC's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, JPMorgan

☆ More stocks are participating to the upside, signaling a healthier market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In recent weeks, more stocks are participating in the market's move to record or near-record highs. "Market breadth breakouts support the bullish case," Bank of America technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier said in a 29-page report Monday. Suttmeier relied on the advance/decline line , a measure of the number of stocks rising in price on a given day versus the number of stocks that have fallen in price, for his analysis. Advancers also beat decliners on the Nasdaq Stock Market by about 2,500 to 1,000, or a ratio of 2.5 to 1. "Strong advance-decline (A-D) lines show solid market breadth [and] suggest a 'rotational' versus 'toppy' trading pattern since July," Suttmeier told clients.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Advancers, decliners Organizations: Bank of America, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, U.S, NYSE Locations: U.S

☆ What the stock market does historically after the first Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday , bringing its year-to-date gain to more than 18%. The S & P 500 averaged a 5.5% gain in the first three months after an initial cut, 10.6% six months later and 11.3% one year out. On average, the broader index jumped 10.2% three months later, 14.7% six months out and 18.6% one year afterward. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, ytd Other investment banks have noted this discrepancy, with Bank of America Securities also highlighting the pattern in a recent note. The worst-performing sectors 12 months after a rate cut were materials, utilities and consumer discretionary.

Persons: Canaccord, Ohsung Kwon, Canaccord Genuity, — CNBC's Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities

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