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Russia's Spetsnaz forces are often depicted as a kind of Russian super troops. Osprey PublishingMost countries' special forces emphasize physical fitness, determination and aggression. Special people, for special tasksMembers of the Russian military's 16th Separate Special Purpose Brigade during an exercise in 2018. Even so, being better than most of the Soviet army's miserable and recalcitrant conscript forces did not make most of them truly special, special forces. The special operations commandMembers of Russian's 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade during an exercise in November 2017.
Ukraine's nuclear power plants were a central part of Russia's plan to force Kyiv's capitulation. So when Russia started planning its invasion, Ukraine's nuclear energy infrastructure was a top target. According to the RUSI report, Ukraine's nuclear energy infrastructure "played a significant role" in Russia's invasion plan and in the Kremlin's public narratives about the conflict. Moscow's big planRussian military personnel at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in May 2022. Although Russian forces still control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, that has not won the Kremlin any leverage over Kyiv.
Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
And in the case of Polohy, Russia has constructed two distinct defensive lines, one to the north and one to the south. Musiyenko estimated that Ukraine would have a force of between 100,000-110,000 for an attack, including eight assault brigades with a total of 40,000 troops. Russia has not said how many troops it has in Ukraine, or within its borders ready to deploy. A leaked U.S. intelligence document dated Feb. 28 seen by Reuters said the West had committed 200 tanks to Ukraine. Army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said in December he needed 300 to defeat Russia, along with other vehicles and artillery.
While Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, it appear to be doing more damage than Russia. But while Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, they appear to be doing more damage even though, with some notable exceptions, they are using the same weapons as their Russian opponents. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in February that Russia was firing around four times as many shells as Ukraine. This suggests an improvement of a factor of 7-10, which is roughly what we see in the ratios of artillery shells: casualties above. A vast number of Ukrainian drone videos show this process in operation.
Russia's air force has struggled to exploit air superiority over Ukraine since the start of the war. Pilots lack basic training to fly at low altitudes and sophisticated weapons, the report said. The report, published this week, outlines the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's air force in Ukraine based on a series of interviews with intelligence services, military experts, and Ukrainian air force commanders. The Russian air force has lacked success since the start of its invasion mostly due to the resilience of Ukraine's ground-to-air defense systems. "We need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defense capability as we possibly can."
Those calls center on the US-made F-16, which proponents say will boost Ukraine's air force. But Russia would notice if Ukraine began modifying its airbases to support F-16s, one expert says. Despite being numerically and technologically outmatched by Russian aircraft and air-to-air missiles, Ukraine's air force has proven remarkably resilient and resourceful. But so far, Russia has chosen to not to use its limited stockpile of long-range missiles against Ukrainian airbases because Ukrainian airpower "doesn't pose a massive threat," Bronk said. US Air National Guard crews replace a part on an F-16 at Ukraine's Mirgorod Air Base in July 2011.
A Russian warplane mistakenly bombed one of its own border cities, on Thursday, officials said. An expert told Insider that the pilot may have confused the Russian city for a Ukrainian one. A Russian Su-34 dropped a bomb on the border city of Belgorod, around 25 miles north of the country's border with Ukraine, Russia's defense ministry said in a statement. Two military experts told Insider that it was strange for the Su-34 to be flying over a built-up city in the first place. However, both experts told Insider they are confused about why the plane was flying so close to a populated Russian city, with Miron noting "they could have easily avoided flying over Belgorod."
Qaem-5 precision-guided munition, documented by Conflict Armament Research in Ukraine. Shahed-131 UAV documented by Conflict Armament Research in Ukraine. Circuit boards of four different items of Russian military equipment found in Ukraine by Conflict Armament Research investigators. Electronic components documented by Conflict Armament Research investigators in Ukraine. Source: Conflict Armament Research
Despite being bigger and more advanced than its enemy, Russia's air force has struggled in Ukraine. It's commonly said that Russian fighter pilots are not as well trained as their Western counterparts, particularly those from the United States. But however ineffective you may think Russian pilot training is compared to the West, the truth seems to be … much worse. A Russian air force pilot prepares to take off in an Su-35 fighter jet at Hemeimeem air base in Syria in September 2019. Put simply, the Gulf War air campaign creates a damning juxtaposition when compared directly to Russia's air campaign over Ukraine.
A Russian fighter jet collided with an American drone this week after harassing it. The collision was likely unintentional, and former US naval aviators say that it could point to problems with Russian fighter pilots. A State Department official said it "probably was the result of profound incompetence on the part of one of these Russian pilots." Russian military failures in Ukraine have altered this view, he continued, "and now, you've got something like this." Charles Larkin Sr./US Air Force via AP"The tactical portion here is that poor training or poor decision making by a Russian pilot caused a collision," Snodgrass said.
The US military has at least six new air-to-air missiles in active development. The US's current air-to-air missiles are effective, but they aren't designed for the newest US jets. Russia and China are fielding missiles with incredible rangeChinese-made PL-9C, left, and PL-5E air-to-air missiles at the Airshow China exhibition in November 2000. Peregrine Air-to-Air missileRaytheon's Peregine air-to-air missile has actually been around for a few years already. Modular Advanced Missile (MAM)The Modular Advanced Missile (MAM) is among the newest additions to this list.
Ukrainian infantrymen with the 28th Brigade view damaged buildings while driving to a frontline position facing Russian troops on March 05, 2023 outside of Bakhmut, Ukraine. Russian forces appear to be tightening the noose around the city in Donetsk. "The fall of Bakhmut won't necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the tide of this fight," he added, noting that he would not predict when Bakhmut might fall to Russian forces. Ukrainian military vehicles drive along a road outside of the strategic city of Bakhmut on January 18, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. On Tuesday, Zelenskyy warned that Russian troops will have "open road" to key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize Bakhmut.
By September, the tally of lost and captured Russian tanks reached 1,000 — more than all the tanks in the British, French, German, and Finnish militaries combined. The first time these British tanks found a fight, only 25 of the 49 of them actually moved when ordered to commence the attack. Nonetheless, before the conflict was over, Churchill himself would decide tanks had, once again, run their course, declaring, "we have too much armor — tanks are finished." And that is the real lesson we can glean from the performance of Russian tanks in Ukraine over the past year. Maxim Shemetov/ReutersThis point becomes evident when you look at Russian tank losses recorded by the Oryx Blog between February and April 2022, when Russian tank losses were at their absolute worst.
Ukraine and Russia have employed an array of drones since Moscow attacked in February 2022. Despite sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, Russia has been able to keep its most effective drone flying over Ukraine thanks to Western-made parts. The Orlan-10's specifications and characteristics in a graphic published by the Royal United Services Institute in December 2022. Russian intelligence services are likely involved in sourcing this technology through contacts and front companies around the world. Western-made components found in the Orlan-10, according to the Royal United Services Institute.
However, more potent air-to-air missiles are helping Russian jets keep Ukrainian aircraft at bay. However, a potent mix of air-to-air missiles — some of which out-range their Ukrainian counterparts — have helped keep Ukrainian aircraft at bay. The Kh-38 is a Soviet concept dating back to the 1980s, but the Russian air force never procured them "in anything like operationally useful numbers," Barrie said. Russian air-to-air missiles have been "effective in limiting the Ukrainians ability to use their own air force," Barrie said. For now, the only blessing for Ukraine is that Russia doesn't have a lot of these long-range air-to-air missiles.
The Russian Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on Shoigu or its own performance in Ukraine. Appointed defence minister in 2012, he is part of Putin's inner circle and has enjoyed hunting and fishing holidays with him in his native Siberia. The Russian army has been learning from its mistakes and successfully adapting, the source said. There's no escaping the poor performance of the Russian military". It was "inconceivable", said Jones, that a Western defence minister could have kept his job in such circumstances.
Russia is gathering air power at Ukraine's border, according to unnamed Western officials. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin denied this, but called on the West to rush air defenses to Ukraine. NATO allies have noted both fixed-wing and rotary aircraft as part of the build-up, unnamed Western officials told the Financial Times. The reports come as Ukraine's allies embark on a renewed rush to bring air defenses to the country. He said that "we need to do everything that we can" to bring air defenses to Ukraine.
LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday several Western countries were ready to provide Kyiv with aircraft to defeat Russia's invasion. Ukraine has been asking allies to provide modern fighter jets - dubbed "wings for freedom" in Zelenskiy's speech to British lawmakers this week - to replace its ageing fleet of Soviet MiG and Sukhoi planes. WILL UKRAINE GET THE FIGHTER JETS? Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson did not rule out sending fighter jets but played down expectations, saying the issue was not on Stockholm's agenda at the moment. The Kremlin has said that Western countries would be moving towards direct conflict with Russia if they send jets.
Following Russia's 2014 attack, Ukraine's military set out to improve and modernize its forces. In the years that followed, Ukraine's military underwent a period of preparation that helped it blunt the full-scale invasion that Russia launched in February 2022. Training for artillery troops was also intensified. However, Russia's tanks still outnumbered Ukraine's nearly four to one when the invasion started. Prior to 2022, Ukraine's military had struggled to retain troops, but high turnover during those years meant Ukraine had a large pool of civilians with military training.
Those plans depended in part on seizing Ukraine's nuclear power plants and using them for leverage. Dmytro Smolyenko/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesAccording to the RUSI report, Russia's war plans viewed Ukraine's nuclear power plants as a means to achieve Moscow's larger aims. The Kremlin's plan envisioned three uses for the Ukrainian nuclear power facilities once the invasion was underway. Moscow also incorporated Ukraine's nuclear power facilities into its information operations. Fighting in a nuclear plantThe Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on August 29.
Kenzo Tribouillard | Afp | Getty ImagesThe dust has barely settled on the decision by the U.S. and Germany to supply battle tanks to Ukraine, but talk has already turned to the possible use of other firepower, namely, fighter jets. Kyiv appears confident that, as with Western tanks, it will eventually be given F-16s too. The U.S. has been tight-lipped about giving Ukraine F-16s, or allowing other countries to re-export their own U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine (National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he had no announcement to make on the issue Wednesday). How helpful fighter jets would be to Ukraine is a matter for debate, and depends on the aircraft, its weaponry and flying conditions, experts note. Germany arrived at its decision to send tanks after months of pressure and deliberation, making any question over fighter jets a very distant prospect, according to Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at analysis firm Teneo.
"The next big hurdle will now be the fighter jets," Yuriy Sak, who advises Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, told Reuters by phone. Ukraine's Air Force has a fleet of ageing Soviet-era fighter jets that came off the assembly line before Kyiv even declared independence more than 31 years ago. "If we get them (Western fighter jets), the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense... It's not just F-16s (U.S. multirole fighter jets): fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want." Despite any lack of significant palpable movement on the matter, Ukraine's Air Force has yearned for better aircraft throughout the war.
Since the start of the war, Russia's air force has struggled in combat over Ukraine. Moscow has been afraid to use them because of Ukraine's smart air defense, two experts told Insider. But, per an intelligence update earlier this week from the British ministry of defense, Russia has only used the jets from within its own airspace. Dr. Matthew Ford, a professor at the Swedish Defence University, also credited Ukraine's air defense to deterring Russian incursions. "[Ukraine's] air defense is sufficiently credible to make it open to question for the Russians as to whether they want to commit their air power," he added.
An expert explained why to Insider: Russia fears the consequences of losing one. Per the British update, Russia sends the jets up and has them fire long-range missiles at targets in Ukraine. Bronk is an airpower & technology expert with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London. Bronk told Insider that Russia is scared of the consequences if a Su-57 was shot down and Ukraine's allies in NATO could study the wreckage. "They're being very cautious with their entire combat aircraft fleet, and despite that, they continue to take a steady trickle of losses," Bronk told Insider.
Other decisions by Russian commanders are setting the air force up for future problems. Another sign of poor discipline is the habit of stacking munitions next to aircraft parked at Russian air bases. RUSI believes they have "corresponded with a significant reduction in the scale and complexity of VKS air operations over Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict." Mihail Siergiejevicz/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesStill more ominous are the implications for future Russian air operations over Ukraine. Russia needs to maintain a flow of properly trained pilots, as well as competent and disciplined ground crews.
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