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Easing mortgage rates won't fully unwind the "lock in" effect, Capital Economics said. Home moves and market activity will remain muted even if borrowing costs become more attractive. "Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists said. In the research group's view, housing market activity will remain muted as competition for homes stays tight and affordability remains historically low. The strategists expect mortgage rates, too, will continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels.
Persons: Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital
A key long-term indicator of an overbought market has been flashing since November. When it flashes for 12 months, the S&P 500 is positive 100% of the time, Bank of America said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThree months into 2024 and the stock market is off to a stellar start. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Organizations: Bank of America, Markets, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business
In today's big story, we're looking at bitcoin's latest rally and what's driving it so high this time around . The milestone comes amid a massive rally for bitcoin over the past month, where its price has surged almost 60%. Business Insider's Phil Rosen has a full rundown on what's pushing bitcoin's price so high this time . SOPA Images / GettyA boon for bitcoin doesn't mean everyone in the space wins. The insider I spoke to said there's no single, agreed-upon narrative for what's driving crypto toward a new peak.
Persons: , you've, Phil Rosen, BlackRock's, Jamie Dimon, there's, Tom Williams, Doom, Roubini, BofA, Li Qiang, headwinds, Mark Zuckerberg's, Andrew Bosworth, Sam Altman's, Altman, Hugo Herrera, Lachlan Murdoch, Nordstrom, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Bitcoin, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Beijing, Apple, Getty, European Commission, Employees, BI, Boomers, Fox, Target Locations: bitcoin, China, Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan, New York, London
The move has also fueled speculation about the end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty ImagesChina is also aware that the shock value of Wolf Warrior diplomacy brings diminishing returns. "I think the limits of wolf warrior diplomacy are apparent," Loh said. The Wolf Warrior will be backThat said, Wolf Warrior diplomacy will return, depending on the issue at hand, said Loh. LEAH MILLIS/Getty ImagesSo why did Liu tell reporters and academics in New York that Wolf Warrior diplomacy would never return?
Persons: , Liu Jianchao, Liu, China's, Antony Blinken, ROBERTO SCHMIDT, Ian Ja Chong, Chong, Zhao Lijian, Zhao, Rather, Stanley Rosen, Rosen, you'll, Zhao dismissively, Nancy Pelosi's, Anthony Kwan, Pan Chengxin, Donald Trump's, Pan, Dylan Loh, Xi Jinping, Biden, Xi, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, Loh, Qin Gang, LEAH MILLIS Organizations: Service, Communist Party's International Department, of Foreign, Business, US, AFP, Getty, National University of Singapore, Foreign Ministry, University of Southern, China Institute, U.S . House, Deakin University, Nanyang Technological University of Singapore, Getty Images, Chinese Foreign Locations: New York, China, West . China, Beijing, University of Southern California's US, Maryland, Ukraine, Weibo, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, Gaza, AFP, Getty Images China, West
China has been grappling with negative consumer prices for several months. No other major world economy faces deflation. China is the only major economy with negative consumer prices, dropping 0.8% year-over-year in January. China is the only major economy dealing with deflation. And China's ongoing real estate market slump has depressed the prices for household items and residences.
Persons: Organizations: Service Locations: China, Beijing
New listings for homes for sale climbed 12.9% year-over-year in February, Redfin data shows. Total inventory also improved, as total homes for sale did not decline for the first time in nine months. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Mortgage-purchase applications have dropped for four consecutive weeks, and pending sales dipped 8%, the steepest drop in five months.
Persons: , Redfin, Brynn Rea Organizations: Service, Mortgage Locations: Redfin, Spokane , Washington
In January, the law firm Crowell & Moring traded its New York offices in an early 1980s building in Midtown Manhattan for a newly built space on the West Side, with sweeping views of the Hudson River and New York Harbor. The law firm’s previous office layout was “essentially wasted space,” said Philip T. Inglima, the firm’s chairman. Crowell & Moring makes better use of the square footage in its new location, which includes features like sit-to-stand desks, video technology for hybrid meetings and double-pane glass for soundproofing, Mr. Inglima said. Larger law firms nationwide have been shedding space even as they have added lawyers. “We don’t have everybody in the office all the time, and that’s why we don’t necessarily need that larger footprint,” said Sharis A. Pozen, the law firm Clifford Chance’s regional managing partner, for the Americas.
Persons: Crowell, , Philip T, Moring, Inglima, Clifford Organizations: Moring, Crowell Locations: New York, Midtown Manhattan, Hudson, Americas
Canada's largest pension fund sold a stake in a New York building for $1. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board operates a $436.9 billion fund, with a global real estate portfolio worth roughly $30.6 billion. According to the Bloomberg report, the pension isn't backing out entirely from the office real estate sector, but it's also limiting its holdings in the space. Economists at Moody's, too, expect more pain ahead for commercial real estate.
Persons: , it's, Goldman Sachs, Moody's Organizations: Service, Pension Plan Investment Board, Bloomberg, Pension Plan Investment, Boston Properties, Santa, Santa Monica Business Park, Bank, New York Community Bank Locations: New York, Canada, Santa Monica, Silicon, Moody's
The US housing market faces an inventory shortage, but empty offices don't offer a solution. Goldman Sachs strategists say that offices can't be cheaply or easily converted into residential units. Goldman Sachs Investment Research, CoStar dataIn the same stretch, a combination of high mortgage rates and home prices with limited housing inventory has frozen the US housing market. Residential housing affordability has declined for the last 15 years and hit a historical low in 2022. "Our analysis implies that only 0.8% of US office inventory is currently priced at a level that makes conversion to multifamily housing financially feasible," the bank maintained.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Goldman, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Goldman, San Locations: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle
Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness
In today’s big story, we’re looking at the chances of there being no rate cuts this year, and how the markets would react. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyCuts are canceledAaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty ImagesDon't count your chickens before they hatch and don't price in your rate cuts before they materialize. Last December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that three cuts were on the table for 2024, which he reiterated earlier this month. AdvertisementBonds could struggle, though, with further delays on rate cuts raising the risk that debt markets suffer another meltdown like they did last fall.
Persons: , Mark Zuckerberg, Aaron Schwartz, , won’t, Jerome Powell, Phil Rosen, There's, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, NYCB’s, Ark's Cathie Wood, Paul Judge, Tessa Flippin, Claude Grunitzky, Gayle Jennings O'Byrne, Black VCs, Masayoshi Son, OpenAI’s, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, UFC, Business, Xinhua, Getty, Federal, Paramount, Fed, Big Tech, JPMorgan Private Bank, Discover, Discover Financial, Nvidia, Opportunity, Equity Alliance, Wocstar Fund, Opportunity Fund, Equity Alliance Wocstar, Google, Walmart, Pandora, Home Locations: Japan, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Fox, New York, London, Chicago
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
China's birthrate has plunged, with the number of newborns in 2023 falling by 500,000, to about 9 million. AdvertisementDecades of China's one-child policy have created a demographic nightmare for the world's second-largest economy, and millions of school teachers could soon be left without a job as birthrates tumble. If those classes don't scale back, China could see a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, according to a Tuesday report from the South China Morning Post. Last year marked the second consecutive year that China's population shrank, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Total primary school students, too, declined in 2022 for the first time in a decade.
Persons: China's birthrate, , it's Organizations: Service, South China Morning, country's National Bureau of Statistics, Education, China National Academy of Educational Sciences, Terry Group, Terry, UN Locations: China, Beijing, Hangzhou
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG said it's bracing for an ongoing decline in commercial real estate. It called the downturn "the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis." Shares of the German bank have declined about 25% year-to-date. AdvertisementSigns of commercial real estate distress continue to mount, with the latest warning coming from German lending giant Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG. "Despite these expenses, pbb remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis," the bank said in a statement February 7.
Persons: , they've Organizations: Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Service
"We estimate that real house prices in China declined 16% from the peak in 2021Q3 to 2023Q3," Goldman analysts said. For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012. Goldman's derived measure of China's real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below. Goldman Sachs"[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China," Goldman analysts said. Foreclosures soared as homeowners couldn't afford to pay off or refinance their mortgages, which lowered house prices further.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Price Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, Housing Locations: China, Beijing, 2021Q3
A spokesman for Industrious said it would own a 40% stake in the merged subsidiary. The vacancy rate for office space nationally hit 18.6% at the end of 2023, according to data from CBRE– the highest level since 1992. About 771 million square feet, about twice the size of Manhattan's entire office market, sits empty nationally. How Industrious won the coworking warHodari has been an astute and resilient player in the coworking business. At the time, most coworking companies sought to rent space from landlords then sublease that to their clientele at a hefty markup.
Persons: WeWork, Jamie Hodari, Hodari, Deskpass, Sam Rosen, Deskpass Stephanie Bassos, CBRE, Breather, Rosen, Adam Neumann, Shlomo Silber, Silber, lockdowns, You've Organizations: Business, Deskpass, Bond Locations: New York, Chicago, Breather
Read previewThe biggest players in the global economy are on different trajectories, and markets around the world are reflecting the shifting landscape. "Signs of decoupling are present in global growth, trade, and equity markets," Bank of America strategists wrote in a Friday note. AdvertisementTo that point, the outlook for the Euro area looks softer. BofA expects Euro area growth at 0.4% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Growth forecasts for US, Euro Area, and China.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, BofA, SPX Organizations: Service, Bank, Business, Bank of America, Wall, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of America Global Locations: China, There's, Germany, Spain, Europe
China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing
The state Supreme Court's brief order Tuesday shutting down the suit said legislators have fulfilled promises of annual increases in aid to the state's 286 local school districts as outlined in a 2019 law. But closing the case gives the Legislature more leeway on school funding issues in the short term. Educators who feel legislators aren't providing enough money or distributing it fairly enough were able to take their complaints directly to the state Supreme Court while the case was open. Four school districts sued the state in 2010, and the Supreme Court issued seven rulings from 2010 to 2019. The first six told lawmakers that they needed to increase spending or distribute the money more fairly or both.
Persons: backtracked, Vic Miller, Eric Rosen, ” Leah Fliter, Laura Kelly, Kelly, , Dan Hawkins, Sen, Molly Baumgardner, Kris Kobach, Kobach, ” Kobach, Alan Rupe, Organizations: Republican, GOP, Republicans, Kansas House, Kansas Association of School, Democratic Gov, Wichita Republican Locations: TOPEKA, Kan, Kansas, , Wichita, Kansas City
"The goal isn't to demonize screens entirely, but to create a healthy balance in your family's life," Ganjian told Business Insider. Make other options more appealingSince we live in a digital world, kids will have more and more access to screens as they grow. Setting up healthy habits means not just restricting screen time but also teaching kids how to manage the pull of digital distractions. Keep all devices in another room during family mealtimes, and consider barring kids from taking their devices into their bedrooms. Decide what must happen before screen timeHermans emphasizes screen time should be in addition to downtime, not in place of it.
Persons: , Daniel Ganjian, Ganjian, Jonathan Maynard, Jenna Hermans, Laura Siciliano, Rosen, Siciliano, Maynard, Angela Sharp, Sharp, Helene Abiola, Abiola, Jamie Davis Smith, Hermans Organizations: Service, Providence Saint John's Health, Business, Providence Mission Hospital, YouTube, Apple Locations: Santa Monica , California, kilter, Providence, Mission Viejo , California
Most pressing, however, is its real estate trouble, which the International Monetary Fund characterized as a historic bust matching levels only seen in the worst collapses of the last three decades. AdvertisementYears of overreliance on real estate as an engine of the economy has led to a buildup of risks, the researchers said. Now, Beijing must clean up distressed developers like Evergrande and Country Garden, support falling real estate prices, and figure out how to put the sector on a more sustainable path. The collapse has transpired at "a historically rapid pace only seen in the largest housing busts in cross-country experience in the last three decades," researchers said. "Large public subsidies in the previous decade helped millions of people move to newer housing from older buildings lacking modern amenities.
Persons: Henry Hoyle, Sonali Jain, Chandra, homebuyers Organizations: International Monetary, Business, Housing, IMF Locations: Beijing, China
The odds of a global recession keep going down
  + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Ned Davis Research said economic indicators suggest the odds of a global downturn are diminishing. "The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating." In a note published Tuesday, they highlighted that economic indicators across manufacturing, supply chains, and equities suggest the odds of a global recession have come down. On a historical basis, it's still below the long-term average of 53.2, but the global composite PMI has a recession threshold of 47.8. "This puts our breadth measure closer to pre-pandemic levels, when global expansions typically saw services breadth at 85% or higher."
Persons: Ned Davis, , Alejandra Grindal, Patrick Ayers, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, PMI, NDR Locations: China, India, East, Japan, Canada
Office-to-residential conversions are up 357% since 2021, according to a report from ResiClubThere's $150 billion in office mortgages set to come due in 2024. Last year, about $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured. AdvertisementBy 2027, $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt is set to mature, Capital Economics said. ResiClub cofounder Lance Lambert pointed out that commercial buildings aren't all designed or constructed to be repurposed as living spaces. "It makes sense given the wave of expired leases and vacant office buildings," Lambert said.
Persons: , Moody's, CommercialEdge, Lance Lambert, Lambert, " Lambert Organizations: Service, ResiClub, Federal Reserve, Washington DC, Dallas, Research, Capital Economics, Business Locations: RentCafe, ResiClub, Washington, New York
China's economy has crawled out of the pandemic far below the pace of what most analysts expected, and if policymakers don't step in with sufficient support in 2024, a "debt-deflation spiral" could ensue. Deflation and falling stocksThe researchers said China's leadership has failed to address the lopsided supply and demand dynamics in particular. Meanwhile, deflation has crushed corporate earnings and stock prices in China, as well as wage growth and tax revenues. Nominal GDP grew at 4.6% in 2023, 0.6 points below real growth. "The economy could fall into a debt-deflation spiral without adequate policy support."
Persons: Gene Ma, Phoebe Feng, Ma, Feng, Banks Organizations: Wall Street, Institute of International Finance, CSI, People's Bank of Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China
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