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The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ New Zealand Shocks With Big Rate Rise as Some Central Banks Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( James Glynn | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision illustrates a widening split in the approaches of global central banks. SYDNEY—New Zealand’s central bank announced a further sharp rise in interest rates despite recent indications that activity in the agriculture-rich economy is slowing and could be on the cusp of a recession. The official cash rate was raised to 5.25%, from 4.75%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said after its policy meeting on Wednesday. Economists had expected a smaller increase to 5.00%.

☆ Stocks falter as economic worries nag, big rate hike lifts kiwi dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A stock broker looks at his screens at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoSummary Graphic: World FX ratesGraphic: Global asset performanceWorld stocks pull back from 7-week highsNZ dollar rallies after big rate hikeLONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - World stock markets stumbled on Wednesday as signs that the economic outlook is weakening spurred caution, while a bigger-than-expected interest-rate hike from New Zealand lifted the kiwi dollar. European stocks fell with the broad STOXX 600 index pulling away from Tuesday's one-month highs (.STOXX). U.S. equity futures dipped , and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.6% in its biggest one-day percentage fall since mid-March. Weak U.S. economic data this week has exacerbated recession worries, taking the edge off recent stock market gains.

☆ Stocks meander as US jobs dry up, kiwi jumps on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Futures indicated European markets were set for a broadly lower open, with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.26%, German DAX futures down 0.12%. Two-year treasury yields , which closely track short-term rate expectations, dived almost 15 basis points and the dollar tracked the move to hit two-month troughs. Elsewhere investors see a few more rate hikes in store in Europe, where German exports have turned surprisingly strong. The euro flat at $1.0952, just shy of a two-month high it hit overnight on the dollar at $1.0973. Commodity markets are settling after Monday's surge in oil prices on news of surprise OPEC+ production cuts.

☆ RBNZ stuns market with bigger rate rise, more tightening seen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank's hawkish stance saw a number of economists revise their expectations, predicting it would increase the official cash rate (NZINTR=ECI) (OCR) to a peak of 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said the committee needed to increase the cash rate if it is to return inflation to its target of 1%-3%. Wednesday's decision comes in sharp contrast with the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold the cash rate steady. Two-year swaps jumped 15 bps to 5.11%, still well below the March peak of 5.53%, while the 90-day bank bill rate implied the official cash rate would peak at 5.5%. Kiwibank along with ANZ, Bank of New Zealand, ASB Bank and Capital Economics now expect the cash rate to peak at 5.5%.

☆ Morning Bid: Jolted markets fret about economy, Fed rate path
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The JOLTS report on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, with traders wagering that the Fed is just about done with its interest rate hikes. And yet, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. A surprise 50 basis point hike from New Zealand's central bank shocked the Asian market, with kiwi-dollar scaling a two-month peak. Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would raise rates by just 25 basis points. A Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed that the U.S. dollar will weaken against most major currencies this year as the interest rate gap with its peers stops widening.

☆ New Zealand central bank unexpectedly hikes rates 50 basis points, kiwi rallies
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would raise rates by just 25 basis points. This is the eleventh straight hike since the central bank started raising rates in October 2021. It now expects the cash rate to peak at 5.5%. The RBNZ's move was in contrast to Australia's central bank, which kept rates on hold at its review on Tuesday. The central bank noted that while the level of economic activity over the fourth quarter was lower than anticipated and there were emerging signs of capacity pressures easing, demand continues to significantly outpace supply capacity.

☆ New Zealand central bank surprises with 50 basis point hike, kiwi soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WELLINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank unexpectedly raised its cash rate by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 5.25% on Wednesday, reiterating that inflation was still too high and persistent. Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would raise rates by just 25 basis points. This is the eleventh straight hike since the central bank started raising rates in October 2021. At the RBNZ's review in February, when it raised rates by 50 bps, it had signalled a 50 bp hike for April but with the outlook turning darker, economists had forecast a smaller increase. The central bank noted that while the level of economic activity over the fourth quarter was lower than anticipated and there were emerging signs of capacity pressures easing, demand continues to significantly outpace supply capacity.

☆ Stocks struggle as US jobs dry up, kiwi leaps on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Two-year treasury yields , which closely track short-term rate expectations, dived almost 15 basis points and the dollar tracked the move to hit two-month troughs. U.S. interest rate futures have rallied strongly over the last few weeks, as traders figure that under pressure banks will tighten up on lending anyway and save the need for monetary policymakers to do the job. DOLLAR SQUEEZEDOutside the United States, markets see other central banks staying the course on hikes to tame inflation. Elsewhere investors see a few more rate hikes in store in Europe, where German exports have turned surprisingly strong. Commodity markets are settling after Monday's surge in oil prices on news of surprise OPEC+ production cuts.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Growing recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "Any crisis that damages Americans' trust in their banks damages all banks," he said – calling on regulators to keep better taps on banks' risk management. If the jobs market proves more resilient than that, the Federal Reserve has room to hike even further. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

April 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Rates markets no longer expect the Fed to raise rates again and are pricing in 75 basis points of easing this year. But falling yields and increased rate cut expectations are not supporting stocks and risk assets - recession fears are growing. Australian policymakers said they want time to assess the impact of past increases as the economy slows and inflation peaks. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ RBA to hike rates 25 bps on April 4 but decision on a knife edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, March 31 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank is expected to go for a final 25 basis point interest rate hike to 3.85% on Tuesday, although forecasts from economists polled by Reuters suggest the decision on whether to hike or hold rates is on a knife edge. However, eight of the 13 economists expecting a pause pencilled in a rate hike sometime in the second quarter. Although CBA and Westpac forecast a pause in April, they expect one more rate hike in the second quarter. Minutes from the March meeting showed RBA board members reconsidered the case for a pause at the following meeting, noting monetary policy was already in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain. Although the median forecast showed the cash rate would remain at 3.85% until the end of 2023, five economists predicted it to peak at 4.10%.

☆ Safe-haven dollar sluggish as banking fears ebb; yen drops
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged 0.08% higher to 102.57 in Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The weakness comes despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, also the result of ebbing demand for the safest assets. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.59% to 131.68 yen , and touched a one-week high of 131.80. The yen had dropped 0.5% the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

☆ Central banks stick to rate hikes with eye on market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,290 basis points (bp) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics1) UNITED STATESThe Fed raised rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, continuing its most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. After setting its policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the Fed hinted it may soon pause rate rises. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.6% in March, the highest since May 2012, but hinted rate hikes may be over for now.

☆ Dollar languishes as bank crisis fears ebb on Credit Suisse rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday but was pinned near a five-week low as traders tiptoed back into riskier assets after UBS' state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse allayed some fears of a widespread, systemic banking crisis. "There has been pretty modest demand for U.S. dollars at the Fed swap lines, so that is a positive sign in and of itself," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). The dollar slipped 0.12% to 131.15 against the Japanese yen , while the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.04% to 103.30. Lower U.S. rate expectations also added to downward pressure on the dollar ahead of the Fed's two-day policy meeting commencing later on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Tuesday it saw no immediate need to request the reinstatement of a U.S. dollar swap line that expired in 2021.

☆ NZ banks operating above minimum regulatory requirements -central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 17 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank said on Friday all banks in the country were currently operating above its minimum regulatory requirements and that it was closely monitoring the turmoil in global financial markets. "Our rigorous stress testing has shown that they are well-placed to deal with far more adverse situations than what we are currently experiencing." Banking stocks globally have been battered since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. On Thursday, Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) said it will borrow up to $54 billion from Switzerland's central bank to shore up liquidity. Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Alasdair Pal and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ New Zealand's economy shrinks in fourth quarter, changing rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Pedestrian walking past the Reserve Bank of New Zealand building on Saturday, June 22, 2019. New Zealand's economy missed forecasts for growth in the fourth quarter and instead shrank 0.6%, official data showed on Thursday, raising the chances of a recession and making further interest rate hikes less likely. Gross domestic product failed to meet analysts' expectations of a 0.2% contraction in the December quarter and was well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast of 0.7% growth. The central bank and treasury had both forecast the country would enter a shallow recession in the second quarter of 2023. Regardless of whether the country is entering a recession, the economy is much less overheated than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, or RBNZ, had expected.

☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

☆ Dollar retreats as investors come to terms with higher-for-longer U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting, minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday. However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. "Many central banks around the world ... are trying to put an emphasis in their determination to combat inflation expectations," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. The kiwi continued to draw some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rate rise on Wednesday, after the central bank signalled further tightening ahead to tame high inflation. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

☆ Dollar firms as investors brace for higher-for-longer rates scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. The dollar paused its ascent on Thursday after gaining broadly on the back of the release. "The meeting minutes were pretty much within expectations ... the markets are now pricing for higher-for-longer rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. "The resilience (of the U.S. economy) prompts the Fed to keep raising interest rates ... pushing up the U.S. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index stood at 104.50, and was attempting to break a more than one-month peak of 104.67 hit last week.

LONDON/SINGAPORE, Feb 22 - The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, continuing to trade near six-week highs on the back of strong economic data. Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. On Wednesday, the euro was down 0.15% at $1.063, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.061. EuroThe dollar index was up 0.13% at 104.28, not far off the six-week high of 104.67 hit at the end of last week. Themos Fiotakis, head of FX strategy at Barclays, said he still expcts the dollar to fall by the end of the year.

☆ New Zealand hikes rates to over 14-year highs, flags more to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday, and said it expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish signal that sent the local dollar surging. The RBNZ continues to expect the official cash rate (OCR) to peak at 5.5% in 2023, according to the monetary policy statement accompanying the rate decision. That would mark the most aggressive policy tightening streak since the official cash rate was introduced in 1999. "While there are early signs of price pressure easing, core consumer price inflation remains too high, employment is still beyond its maximum sustainable level, and near-term inflation expectations remain elevated," the central bank said in a statement. The decision was largely in line with a Reuters poll.

☆ NZ cenbank hikes 50bps, flags more to come as inflation 'too high'; kiwi gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The RBNZ continues to expect the cash rate to peak at 5.5% in 2023, according to the monetary policy statement (MPS) accompanying the rate decision. That would mark the most aggressive policy tightening streak since the official cash rate was introduced in 1999. "While there are early signs of price pressure easing, core consumer price inflation remains too high, employment is still beyond its maximum sustainable level, and near-term inflation expectations remain elevated," the central bank said in a statement. The New Zealand dollar rose as high as $0.6246 after the decision, reflecting the hawkish tone of the statement, having traded as low as $0.6206 earlier. New Zealand's annual inflation is currently running near three-decade highs of 7.2%, well above the central bank's medium term target of 1%-3%.

☆ Dollar, sterling underpinned by upbeat PMI surveys; kiwi jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose against most major currencies after the upbeat data save for sterling , which jumped 0.6% on Tuesday. The euro , however, failed to benefit from the data as it slid 0.36% in the previous session. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar rose to a two-month high of 135.23 in the previous session, and slipped marginally to 134.91 in early Asia trade on Wednesday. The two-year yields jumped to an over three-month high of 4.738% in the previous session, and last stood at 4.6933%. The kiwi rose 0.39% to $0.6238, after earlier jumping roughly 0.5% to an intra-day high of $0.6248 immediately after the RBNZ's cash rate decision.

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