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☆ Buy these stocks with high dividend growth and free cash flow yield, Wolfe says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The best long-term dividend growth strategy is to buy stocks that offer a combination of high dividend growth and high free cash flow yield, the strategist said. Here are 10 names that Wolfe likes for their high dividend growth and free cash flow yields. NXP Semiconductors, for instance, has a 2% dividend yield and last 12 months dividend growth of 32%. It has a 6% estimated free cash flow yield for 2024. Meanwhile, Qualcomm has a 6% estimated free cash flow yield for 2024 and 9% last 12 months dividend growth.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Karen Lynch, Kroger, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, CVS, CNBC, NXP Semiconductors, Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm Locations: U.S

☆ Bank of America unveils its top 10 trades for 2024, and 6 signs that would confirm a true bull market has arrived
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ Here's why it's time to buy 'dividend aristocrats,' says Wolfe Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Next year could be the year for certain dividend stocks, according to Wolfe Research. The S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is composed of companies that have increased dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. Here are some of the names in the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. For investors who prefer funds, they can also get exposure through the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats exchange-traded fund. NOBL YTD mountain ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Wolfe, Roz Brewer, Tim Wentworth, Wentworth, Medtronic, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Materials, Walgreens, Shields Health, —

☆ Treasury yields inch higher as investors consider economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship, and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury yield was up by about 3 basis points at 4.885%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 2 basis points higher at 4.4%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of economic data that could provide hints about the economic outlook. Recent data has suggested that higher rates are having the desired effect and inflation is easing, although it remains above the Fed's 2% target range.

Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ The stock market could plunge as much as 27% when the economy finally tips into recession, investment research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the US economy remains on track to enter a recession as high interest rates take a toll. A downturn could cause stocks to plummet as much as 27%, the investment research firm predicted. Economists have been warning of a potential recession since 2022, when central bankers began to aggressively raise interest rates to tame high inflation. AdvertisementLending conditions are tightening under the influence of higher-for-longer interest rates, leading some experts to warn of a coming default cycle on the horizon. "Cracks" also appear to be forming in the job market as firms slow their pace of hiring, BCA strategists said.

Persons: — Organizations: Research, Service, BCA Research, Fed, ECB, Deutsche Bank , Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Japan's aging population offers a roadmap for the US economy's inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Eurizon strategists forecast US inflation to steadily fall to the Fed's target of 2%. Since the 1990s, Japan's aging population has caused inflation and interest rates to fall. By Eurizon's calculations, Japan's labor force peaked in 2019, at 1.7 times its size from 1950, which suggests an average annual labor force growth rate of 0.77 percent a year through the expansion. Similarly, China's labor force peak from 2018 will likely be pushed back by new policies. Eurizon SLJ Capital LimitedAs more countries follow Japan's demographic path, inflation should follow a similar trajectory.

Persons: —, Stephen Jen, Joana Freire, Jen, Freire Organizations: Service, Japan, JPMorgan, Bank of, SLJ, Bank of America Locations: Japan, South Korea, Italy, China, EU, India

☆ Jeremy Grantham's GMO just launched an actively managed fund focused on high-quality stocks. Its manager shares 7 unique companies he's betting on to deliver high returns.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The GMO US Quality ETF (QLTY) launched on November 12, and as its name implies, the fund seeks to offer investors exposure to so-called quality stocks through an actively managed approach. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "At GMO, internally we also talk about intrinsic value, which is adjusting for growth and quality," Hancock said. The aerospace business manufactures and re-services airplane engines, and the continued resurgence in global demand for travel following the pandemic bodes well for the business, Hancock said. While the timing of the ETF release is not related to Grantham's call, Hancock said quality stocks are typically more defensive in a recessionary environment.

Persons: Tom Hancock, Hancock, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham Organizations: Business, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Electric, GE

☆ Germany financial sector facing dark clouds, Bundesbank warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Deutsche Bundesbank FollowFRANKFURT, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Germany's financial firms may be well capitalised now but face challenges ranging from rising interest expenditure and weak loan demand to unrealised losses, Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch said on Wednesday. "Almost two-thirds of savings banks and credit cooperatives now have unrealised losses throughout their banking book, which comprises loans as well as securities," Buch said in a statement. Buch warned that interest rate expenditure was likely to rise in the future, which will compress margins and weigh on earnings. Banks will struggle to offset higher costs via rising loan volumes since corporate demand is weak amid a recessionary environment. "Even in adverse scenarios, financial institutions should have sufficient levels of capital and liquidity to be able to absorb shocks on their own," Buch added.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Claudia Buch, Buch, Banks, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT

☆ Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks the market is ignoring risks of a hard landing in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We believe the risk of a 'hard landing' for the economy is higher-than-expected." In that kind of a climate, Hartnett expects commodities, including copper and oil, to outperform, along with bonds and cash. "We are sellers of crowded 'no landing' plays into recession," Hartnett said, making a call that includes the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks along with semiconductors, homebuilders and biotech. The firm is "buyers of 'hard landing' plays at onset of recession," he said, including REITs, banks, defensive stocks, small-cap stocks and China. Despite Hartnett's warnings, BofA overall is looking for a soft landing with easier monetary policy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Bulls, U.S ., Reserve Locations: BofA, China

☆ Now that inflation is slowing, here's when 10 experts think we'll see a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.

Persons: —, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ Sleep Number’s ‘Drastic Miss’ Resulted in Drastic Marketing Measures
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Megan Graham | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Bed and mattress brand Sleep Number recalibrated its sales and marketing strategy after being surprised by a drop in consumer demand. Photo: Sleep NumberBed and mattress brand Sleep Number said it retooled its marketing approach to emphasize affordability and competitive value after a startling slip in consumer demand contributed to a 13% year-over-year net sales drop and an earnings miss. The company, which reported third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, said though the broader bedding industry has been operating at recessionary levels for two years, it was still surprised to see that demand “abruptly changed” in August and September as consumer purchasing power declined.

Persons: “

☆ 2 recession indicators are close to flashing. Here's why investors can still rest easy for now.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Two recession indicators are on the verge of flashing as the unemployment rate ticks higher and the yield curve uninverts. "With labor supply increasing, we're not sure the Sahm rule, even if it triggers, would really be indicative of a recession." AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two recession indicators that are on the verge of flashing, but even if they do flash stock market investors can rest easy. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 50 basis points from its cycle low of 3.4% in April. "That's why a small increase in the unemployment rate can be really bad news, because it keeps going," she explained.

Persons: we're, —, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Sahm, Claudia Sahm, Varghese Organizations: Service, CNBC, Treasury

☆ When Fed tightening ends, nothing performs better than 30-year Treasurys — not even the S&P 500, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

30-year US Treasury bonds should outperform the stock market as the Fed tightening cycle nears its end. Rosenberg said the current stock market rally "has been rather junky." AdvertisementAdvertisementBonds should outperform stocks as the Federal Reserve ends its cycle of hiking interest rates, according to top economist David Rosenberg. If the Fed does keep interest rates unchanged at its December FOMC meeting, "the cycle is over. And that's good news for bonds, as a decline in interest rates would drive bond prices higher.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, verve

☆ S&P 500 returns tend to be measly in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is now only 12 months away, with the primary season set to begin Jan. 15. While every election year brings with it a unique mix of political and macroeconomic conditions, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team says equity returns tend to be weaker than average in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election. Since 1984, the average S & P 500 return on election years is only 4%, according to Goldman. When looking more broadly from 1932, the S & P 500 has averaged returns of 7% during an election year and 9% outside of election years. "Post-election returns have typically been stronger when the election resulted in a divided government than a unified government, especially in the case of a wave election," Kostin said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Louis, David Kostin, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Louis Federal, Tech

☆ Are dividend plays key for recession protection?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAre dividend plays key for recession protection? CNBC’s Leslie Picker on ‘ETF Edge’ with Roundhill's Dave Mazza and VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth discuss investing amid recessionary fears.

Persons: Leslie Picker, Dave Mazza, VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth

☆ 'Powell has to be on high alert': Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the Fed needs to consider rate cuts a lot sooner than the market thinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the Federal Reserve needs to consider interest rate cuts a lot sooner than expected. "I think Jay Powell has to be on high alert because we did get some weak data," Siegel said. AdvertisementAdvertisementWharton professor Jeremy Siegel said Monday that the Federal Reserve needs to stay flexible and consider interest rate cuts a lot sooner than the market expects. He ultimately expects the Fed's next interest rate move to be a cut rather than a hike, and it should come sometime in 2024. I think the next move is a cut and it might come even sooner than we think given the data," Siegel said.

Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jay Powell, Siegel, —, I'm, he's, Powell, It's, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, Service

☆ Saudi Arabia’s oil production cuts have tipped its economy into reverse
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Aimee Look | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Abu Dhabi CNN —Saudi Arabia’s economy has jolted into reverse, after the world’s largest crude oil exporter slashed output to prop up prices. Saudi oil production to nine million barrels per day in July as the biggest player in the OPEC+ alliance joined forces with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening demand because of a slowing global economy. “We expect [oil] production to remain low until the end of this year, with a slow unwind in early 2024,” Oxford Economics analysts wrote in a note published Friday. Saudi Arabia’s oil cuts were aimed at stabilizing global oil markets, according to Raif Weigert, Economics Director for the Middle East and North Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence. While other Gulf states have also come under economic pressure from cuts to oil production, the United Arab Emirates economy has continued to grow.

Persons: Raif, Weigert, “ Organizations: Abu Dhabi CNN — Saudi, Oxford, Monetary Fund, P Global Market Intelligence, “, Saudi, United Arab Locations: Abu Dhabi, Saudi, OPEC, Russia, East, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, UAE

☆ Cooling job market no reason for panic yet, economists say: 'It's a slowdown, not a collapse'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Brown | Afp | Getty ImagesThe job market continues to show signs of cooling, but alarm bells aren't ringing just yet, economists said. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October, from 3.8% in September, the BLS said. "There's almost no exception in this report: Every indicator suggests a slowing, slackening labor market," she said. "The days of explosive growth are gone, as the labor market shifts into healthier and more sustainable territory," said Noah Yosif, lead labor economist at UKG, a payroll and shift management company. The rise in the unemployment rate may also just be a sign that the extremely hot labor market is loosening a bit, Bunker added.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Noah Yosif, Aaron Terrazas, Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Nick Bunker Organizations: Afp, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Workers, Finance, Union, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S

☆ Stifel says the S&P 500 will keep climbing 'wall of worry' to hit 4,400, gives 10 stocks to play rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 can rise to 4,400 by the end of the year as near-term recession talk proves unfruitful, according to Stifel. "We see no imminent U.S. recession as the S & P 500 climbs the proverbial Wall of Worry," Bannister wrote to clients in a note. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 this year The average market strategist expects the S & P 500 to finish 2023 at 4,358, according to a CNBC Pro survey. That's because there's too much fear in the market, with the S & P 500 at one point moving into correction territory. Avoiding a recessionary-level slowdown for the ISM PMI would imply upside for the S & P 500 over the next six months, he said.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, outperformance, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, ISM, PMI, Federal Reserve Locations: Wednesday's

☆ All the signs are pointing to a recession that'll cost Americans their jobs, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach says: 'Layoffs are coming'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is clearly headed toward a recession, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach has warned. "The shape of the yield curve is extremely unstable at this time," Gundlach told CNBC's "Closing Bell". AdvertisementAdvertisementRecessions typically happen when the yield curve de-inverts after being inverted for around a year, Gundlach noted. The US Treasury bond curve inverted back in mid-2022, but has pared much of that move since the middle of this year. AdvertisementAdvertisement"I really believe that layoffs are coming," Gundlach told CNBC.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, —, Gundlach, CNBC's, what's, October's Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, US Treasury, Big Tech, CNBC

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ The Most Hyped, Most Anticipated, Most Gossiped-About Collection Is Finally Here
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Vanessa Friedman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Her first namesake collection is possibly the most hyped, most anticipated, most gossiped-about new line from a formerly beloved name … well, ever. Despite a decision not to stage a show or create any advertising, the collection was never going to sneak in under the radar. Ms. Philo, whose transformation of both Celine and Chloé before that had gained her an obsessive following of Philophiles, was too mythic for secrecy. The introductory collection, officially called A1, offers the kind of adult clothes that suggest a woman gets to decide for herself how she is seen. Wearing them would make you feel briskly prepared to go out and get stuff done, while allowing a degree of secret deviance.

Persons: Celine, Phoebe Philo, Philo, Chloé, briskly

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

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