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☆ Davos 2023: Global trade rethink: 'race of the big pockets'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies US climate bill concerns dominate Davos trade talkSome fear "rich-country game" of rising state subsidiesRevamped globalisation must benefit all, Davos toldDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The United States pitched its vision of "worker-centric" trade. "I am very concerned," World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Three decades of free global trade have, the International Monetary Fund estimates, lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The United States notably built into its trade pact with Mexico a mechanism for identifying and dealing with the denial of worker rights. U.S. Trade Representative Tai told a panel on Wednesday the United States wanted to "lead a conversation" on a new version of globalisation.

☆ Davos 2023: LME CEO says nickel reforms to be implemented 'relatively quickly'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Divya Chowdhury | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) will implement recommendations on accountability and position limits "relatively quickly" from an independent review of last year's nickel crisis to prevent market distortions and improve risk monitoring, its chief executive officer said on Wednesday. "The recommendations around accountability levels and position limits are particularly important, are broadly rules-based, so could be brought about quite quickly," LME CEO Matthew Chamberlain said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. The LME, the world's largest and oldest metals forum, annulled all nickel trades on that day, for which it is facing legal action, and suspended the market for the first time since 1988. Independent consultancy Oliver Wyman was appointed by the LME to carry out a review of the debacle. He said the LME plans to make its platform more attractive to traders by not increasing fees in 2023 "even with inflation".

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects a record loss in 2022, primarily due to losses from its portfolio holdings in Russia and Belarus, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said on Wednesday. The bank earlier reported record investments in 2022 of about 13.1 billion euros ($14.1 billion), and expects to continue investments targeted around food and energy security, Renaud-Basso said. It may make record investments in Tunisia. Renaud-Basso reiterated the bank's commitment to send 3 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of this year, particularly to help rebuild infrastructure. That would mean an expected deployment of around 1.3 billion euros in 2023, following last year's disbursement of 1.7 billion euros.

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Heavy electrical company ABB Ltd (ABBN.S) Chairman Peter Voser sees his firm acquiring between five to 10 small-to-medium enterprises a year to add to the company's organic business, he said on Monday. "Each division of ABB should be active in organic and inorganic strategies, which would see ABB acquiring between five to 10 small-to-medium business every year," Voser told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting at Davos. Zurich-based ABB raised around 200 million Swiss francs in November, which at the time was around $209 million, from selling an 8% stake in its EV charging business. "We are constantly looking at both opportunities of further private placements and/or floating, but we are under no pressure," Voser said. That's fair to say, given the population and the economies there, but I wouldn't underestimate the growth potential in the U.S.," Voser said.

"The idea that somehow cryptos are going to maintain value, while the fiat currencies collapse. That's nonsense," Rajan said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. The wider crypto market shrank by $1.4 trillion in 2022 with bitcoin losing 60% of its value. One cause for worry, however, could be that labor markets were tight as nobody wanted to fire people, given how hard it was to hire them to begin with, he said. For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing here(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on Refinitiv Messenger: https://refini.tv/33uoFoQ)Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Davos and Savio Shetty in Mumbai; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Jan 17 (Reuters) - EY Global expects favourable market conditions by the end of this year or early 2024 to list its consulting and a part of the tax business if a proposed split of its accounting and consultancy arms is approved, a company official said on Tuesday. "(The split) will involve a debt raise, and a form of capital transaction - both of those are influenced by market conditions," said Andy Baldwin, global managing partner-client service at EY. The vote, which will take place in around 77 countries, is "probably one of the most complex in corporate history", Baldwin said. He also said that the exchanges to list the business were still under consideration, adding that it was expected to be a "$25 billion plus start-up from the get go". Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Davos, Savio Shetty in Mumbai and Anisha Sircar in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick MacfieOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Malaysia central bank to hike rates to 3.00% on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Sujith Pai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) became in May last year one of the first Asian central banks to hike rates in the current cycle and has added a cumulative 100 basis points. Median forecasts in the poll showed inflation to average 3.0% this year, an upgrade from the 2.8% predicted in October. All but one of 27 economists in the Jan. 10-16 Reuters poll forecast the central bank to hike its overnight policy rate (MYINTR=ECI) to 3.00%, where it was before the pandemic, at its meeting on Jan. 19. While a slim majority of respondents, 13 of 24, expected rates to still be 3.00% at end-March, 10 of them had a 3.25% forecast. Nearly 60% of economists, 14 of 24, expected rates to reach 3.25% or above by end-June, a quarter point higher from a November poll.

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Job cuts are not "top of mind" for Manulife Financial Corp (MFC.TO), Canada's largest insurer, as it sees significant growth opportunities, fuelled particularly by Asia, CEO Roy Gori said on Monday. "We are in growth mode," Gori told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, adding that his firm has been increasing headcount. "We are growing at more than double or triple the GDP in most of the markets that we operate in. That means that we're investing organically to grow our business and ... possibly looking at inorganic opportunities for growth as well." The prospect of an imminent global recession cast a long shadow over Davos on Monday as participants counted the likely cost for their economies and businesses.

Jan 16 (Reuters) - Major markets such as the United States need new statutory definitions of digital assets to provide regulatory clarity for the sector, Jeremy Allaire, CEO of USDC stablecoin issuer Circle said on Monday. Allaire said blockchain technology itself should be viewed similarly to an operating system, while individual use cases should be regulated separately. "New definitions ... would help provide more clarity on which regulators are involved in what activity," Allaire told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos. The European Union is leading in developing digital asset regulations, he said, with the region's Markets in Cryptoassets (MiCA) rules expected to come into effect in 2024. "We're quite optimistic that MiCA will create the conditions for a thriving competitive market in the EU," Allaire said.

With 73% of chief executives around the world expecting global economic growth to decline over the next 12 months, this gloomy view is the most pessimistic CEOs have been since PwC began the survey more than a decade ago, it said on Monday. The survey also found that companies are cutting costs, even as many do not plan to reduce headcount or compensation in the fight to retain talent. Separately, two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) expect a global recession in 2023. Other highlights from the PwC survey include:- Half the CEOs reported reducing operating costs, 51% said they were raising prices, and 48% were diversifying product and service offerings. - Climate risk did not feature as prominently as a short-term risk over the next 12 months relative to other global risks.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - SkyBridge Capital is betting on a sustained turnaround in cryptocurrency markets in 2023, the firm's founder Anthony Scaramucci said, while admitting this view was "overly bullish". "If bitcoin could trade back to $35,000, SkyBridge is going to have an amazing year," Scaramucci told the Reuters Global Markets Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Bitcoin is trading at around $20,800, a 26% gain so far this year after falling by more than 64% in 2022. SkyBridge has invested in bitcoin, ethereum , solana and altcoin algorand , and is also eyeing the structured credit market to drive 2023 returns after the firm's losses in 2022. "Structured credit, mortgage-backed securities, credit card debt, auto loans -- that's an attractive space again," Scaramucci said.

☆ China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note. Reuters GraphicsThe expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said. "Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

☆ No spending spree likely in last full Indian budget before 2024 election: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Indian government will focus on fiscal consolidation in its Feb. 1 budget, the last full one before a 2024 general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said slowing economic growth would limit it from spending more. That will likely limit the government's ability to provide relief to households and businesses facing an uneven recovery from the pandemic. Economic growth likely slowed sharply to an annual 4.6% in the December quarter from 6.3% reported in the preceding quarter. Sitharaman's expected fiscal prudence coincides with state assembly elections in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2023, which would likely discourage the government from making deep cuts to social welfare. Among those who expect it to be a more populist budget, some said the government would announce new subsidies, an increase in healthcare and rural spending to boost jobs.

☆ Retail investors turn to ETFs as recession fears knock down meme stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Retail investors are doubling down on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as rising interest rates and volatile markets curb their appetite for risky assets such as meme stocks, SPACs and cryptocurrencies. On average, retail investors' portfolios are down about 39% in 2022 after recording gains of 18% in 2021, JPMorgan analysts Peng Cheng and Emma Wu said. The investment trend, however, is leaning more toward ETFs tracking broader markets and away from the meme stock frenzy of 2021 that saw retail investors banding together on social media forums to fuel eye-popping gains in GameStop (GME.N), AMC (AMC.N) and others. Retail investors' average daily trading volume in U.S. stocks has amounted to $13.8 billion so far in 2022, compared with $14.2 billion a year earlier, which was the peak of meme stock trading frenzy, according to the report. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday voted to propose some of the biggest changes to American equity market structure in nearly two decades, aimed at boosting transparency and fairness while increasing competition for individual investors' stock orders.

☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.

☆ ECB to raise deposit rate by 50 bps on Dec 15 as bloc enters winter recession: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

According to the Dec. 5-8 Reuters poll, banks will earn 2.00% on deposits after policymakers meet on Thursday, the most since 2009. The refinancing rate will also move up by 50 basis points, to 2.50%. When it last met in late October, the Governing Council topped up key rates by 75 basis points. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also widely expected to downshift to a 50 basis point move following four consecutive 75 basis point increases at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, the day before the ECB decision. Findings in the poll agreed and showed inflation would top out this quarter, at 10.3%, and then decline.

☆ Bank of England to add 50 bps to Bank Rate on Dec. 15; peak at 4.25% in Q2: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We think it will be a 50 bp rise, taking Bank Rate to 3.50%, with risks weighted towards a larger 75 bp move, rather than a smaller 25 bp one." Only two economists expected a 75 bp increase next week compared to 13 of 56 in the Nov. 23 poll. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to shift down to a 50 bp move this month after four consecutive 75 bp increases, a separate Reuters poll found. After next week's move, the BoE will add another 50 bps in the first quarter and 25 bps in the second, with medians showing Bank Rate peaking at 4.25% then. In last month's survey, Bank Rate was expected to peak at 4.25% next quarter and there was a big divide between economists in the latest survey as to when and where it would level out.

☆ BoC to keep up pace with 50 basis point December rate hike -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.

☆ Toronto market seen higher if economic downturn not too severe: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If the downturn doesn't prove to be severe, equity markets could stabilize even as economic data and earnings underwhelm," said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, Missouri. Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. "While corporate earnings will likely continue to decline for many industries, we see continued growth in earnings across most commodities," said Arthur Salzer, chief executive officer of Northland Wealth Management. Adding to investor enthusiasm, the TSX last Wednesday closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 4. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sarupya GangulyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil embargo set to restrain Russian stocks recovery in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Russian market crashed in February after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering sweeping western sanctions. Risk aversion has soared but some fundamentals, such as a strong price of oil, Russia's main export, have underpinned the market. The G7, European Union and Australia, are set to implement a price cap on seaborne exports of Russian oil on Dec. 5. Oil and gas exporters have a strong weighting in Russian stock indexes. "For Russian oil producers, the 2023 outlook is closely linked to the effect from the EU oil embargo on Russian oil and oil products, and also the effect from the price ceiling," said Mikhail Shulgin, head of global research at Otkritie Investment.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rejected the idea of adding wage growth as a new monetary policy goal.

☆ Rates and recession: European shares face rocky start to 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

For the coming months, though, investors fear euro zone equities could lag other markets. "The economic outlook looks challenging as our economists forecast a recession in the euro zone," said Marc Haefliger, Head of Global Equity Strategy at Credit Suisse in Zurich. The economic slowdown will hit the cyclical euro zone market disproportionately," he added. The STOXX index of the euro zone's top 50 blue chip stocks (.STOXX50E) is seen falling another 7.9% from Friday's close to 3,650 points by mid-2023. Among country benchmarks, Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) is seen ending the first half of 2023 at 13,209, down 9.2% from Friday's close.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. Two economists in the poll said the accord should simply be abolished.

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%. Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75. Reuters Poll - Bank of England monetary policy outlook for DecemberAt the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big. The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.

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