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SINGAPORE, June 30 (Reuters) - The yen weakened past 145 per dollar on Friday, a level which kept speculators wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities, while a faltering economic recovery in China also kept pressure on the yuan. Its renewed decline has stoked speculation that intervention by Japanese authorities could be imminent, particularly as the level of 145 per dollar first prompted them to shore up the yen in September. The onshore yuan fell to its lowest since November at 7.2615 per dollar shortly after trading opened on Friday. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slipped 0.12% to $0.6608. The dollar index steadied at around 103.33 and was heading for a gain of about 0.7% in the second quarter.
Persons: Saktiandi Supaat, Maybank's Supaat, Carol Kong, Sterling, Elwin de Groot, Rae Wee Organizations: Bank of Japan's, People's Bank of China, New Zealand, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, Central Bank, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Asia, Tokyo, U.S
The yen weakened past 145 per dollar on Friday, a level which kept speculators wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities, while a faltering economic recovery in China also kept pressure on the yuan. Its renewed decline has stoked speculation that intervention by Japanese authorities could be imminent, particularly as the level of 145 per dollar first prompted them to shore up the yen in September. The onshore yuan fell to its lowest since November at 7.2615 per dollar shortly after trading opened on Friday. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slipped 0.12% to $0.6608. The dollar index steadied at around 103.33 and was heading for a gain of about 0.7% in the second quarter.
Persons: Saktiandi Supaat, Maybank's Supaat, Carol Kong, Sterling, Elwin de Groot Organizations: Bank of Japan's, People's Bank of China, New Zealand, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, Central Bank, Rabobank Locations: China, Asia, Tokyo, U.S
Last week, the central bank surprised investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point, taking Bank Rate to 5.00%, and said there had been "significant" news suggesting persistently high inflation in Britain would take longer to fall. Bank Rate is now expected to peak at 5.50% next quarter following 25 basis point hikes at the BoE's August and September meetings, medians in the poll taken after the Bank's Thursday move showed. In a June 14 poll, policymakers were expected to draw a halt at 5.00% next quarter. "Are they going to be happy with just one more 25 basis points in August? Forty of 52 poll participants said the Bank would dial down the pace to 25 basis points on August 3 but gave a high median 40% chance of another 50 basis point lift.
Persons: James Smith, Stefan Koopman, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Bank, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Britain
So what does the rest of the year have in store for Wall Street? Unfortunately, Wall Street is unlikely to receive the clarity it seeks anytime soon. Still, economists at the Federal Reserve believe that a recession seems more likely by the end of 2023 than not. AI boom: Wall Street has a lot to worry about, but there’s at least one source of market euphoria: artificial intelligence. Satisfying your sweet tooth is about to get more expensiveIf you have a sweet tooth, take note: Cocoa prices have been soaring — and that could drive chocolate prices higher.
Persons: it’s, Rachel, Ross, Mulder, Scully, Sam, Diane, Vladimir, Estragon, Samuel Beckett’s, , Michael Arone, Matthew Bartolini, Darrell Cronk, , Arif Husain, Rowe Price, Wells, Justin Thomson, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Samantha Delouya, It’s, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, El, Paul Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, State, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Wells, Investment Institute, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, , , OceanGate Expeditions, Federal Aviation Administration, Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, Rabobank Locations: New York, Silicon, First Republic, Washington, Europe, Asia, United States, China
Three-quarters of strategists, 15 of 20, who answered an extra question said the 2-year Treasury yield was unlikely to revisit its cycle peak over the coming three months. Only two of 27 respondents had the 2-year yield trading higher than the current level at the end of August. The benchmark 10-year note yield , meanwhile, was forecast to decline by much less, about 25 basis points over the coming six months. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of an oncoming recession but so far, having been inverted for almost a year, that has not happened. "Persistence of this configuration — continued growth along with above target inflation — will keep mild upward pressure on two-year and 10-year yields."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Bas Van Geffen, Robert Tipp, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Rabobank, Fed, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Silicon
New York CNN —If you have a sweet tooth, take note: Cocoa prices have been soaring — and that could drive chocolate prices higher. Because of that, there is an “outsize impact of the region’s weather patterns on world cocoa prices and supplies,” according to Gro Intelligence’s post. Tony's Chocolonely welcomes higher cocoa prices. Petra Figueroa/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images“We are very happy that cocoa prices are rising,” said Pascal Baltussen, chief of impact and operations at Tony’s. “Cocoa prices have been way too low for West African cocoa farmers to earn a living income.”Cocoa futures are used to determine the prices paid to farmers for cocoa in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Persons: El, Paul, Christophe Gateau, Niño, , Intelligence’s, Tony's Chocolonely, Petra Figueroa, Pascal Baltussen, Alex Assanvo, Côte, “ Price, Tony’s, Baltussen, Steven Voskuil, Hershey, , we’ll, , Laura Paddison, Rachel Ramirez Organizations: New, New York CNN, Rabobank, International Cocoa, Getty, Cocoa Organization, Gro Intelligence, Hershey Locations: New York, Europe, Asia, Agboville, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Amsterdam, Tony’s, NIQ
That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.
Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe
However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England
Stocks edge higher, dollar sags eyeing Fed pause
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 4%, the smallest in more than two years, slowing from April's 4.9%. That has crystallised traders' views that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates later on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.2%, setting Wall Street for further gains after U.S. stocks rallied to 14-month highs overnight. That supported the euro , which was up 0.1% to $1.0850, hovering just below Tuesday's three-week high of $1.08235. German two-year bond yields touched a fresh high since March ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank rates decision.
Persons: Richard McGuire, Jim Reid, Stocks, Yoruk Bahceli, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: Sterling, U.S . Federal, U.S, CPI, Nasdaq, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Thursday's European Central Bank, Brent, International Energy Agency, Tokyo's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: London, Asia
AMSTERDAM, June 14 (Reuters) - Electric grid operator TenneT Holding (IPO-TTH.AS) said on Wednesday it has signed an 8 billion euro ($8.63 billion) credit facility to support its spending plans as it awaits a deal to sell its German operations to the German state. Governments of the two countries have said they hope to agree a deal on the sale of TenneT Germany this summer and close a deal by the end of 2023, though talks have been going slowly. TenneT, which had a debt-heavy balance sheet of 38.5 billion euros at the end of 2022, in March estimated equity needs at its German arm of 15 billion euros and of 10 billion euros at its Dutch arm. TenneT said the 2.5-year facility is provided by BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, BNG, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, SMBC Nikko, and UniCredit. ($1 = 0.9271 euros)($1 = 0.9268 euros)Reporting by Toby Sterling, Editing by Louise Heavens and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: TenneT, Toby Sterling, Louise Heavens, Sharon Singleton Organizations: TenneT, BNP, ABN AMRO, Deutsche Bank, ING, Rabobank, Santander, Thomson Locations: AMSTERDAM, Dutch, Germany, Netherlands, BNG, Nikko
In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.
Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec
LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar fell slightly on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data, while China’s yuan slipped to a six-month low after the central bank lowered a short-term lending rate to boost the economy. That helped push the dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, down 0.26% to 103.32. The onshore yuan bottomed at 7.168 per dollar, its lowest since last November, and last traded at 7.152. Its offshore counterpart weakened to a new six-month low of 7.178, before paring its losses slightly. The Aussie dollar rose more than 0.4% to its highest since May 11 at $0.679, and was last at $0.678.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jane Foley, “ What’s, ” Foley, Julian Evans, Pritchard, ” Sterling Organizations: LONDON, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Rabobank, Fed, Capital Economics, of England, Bank of Japan Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China
Dollar dips ahead of U.S. inflation data, central bank meetings
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Those expectations kept risk sentiment buoyant, pinning the U.S. dollar near multi-week lows against the risk-sensitive Australia and New Zealand dollars. The euro gained 0.04% to $1.0760, with traders also focused on Thursday's interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, following its policy meeting. The U.S. dollar index edged marginally higher to 103.59, after falling to 103.24 on Monday, its lowest since May 23. "The central bank will likely continue to send a dovish message or one of no intention of policy change until it changes direction." In Asia, China's central bank cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, sending the yuan falling in the offshore market.
Persons: Joseph Capurso, Jane Foley, Chong Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Labor Department's CPI, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Rabobank, Bank of Japan, Standard Chartered Bank Korea Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, Asia
Those expectations kept risk sentiment buoyant, pinning the U.S. dollar near multi-week lows against the risk-sensitive Australia and New Zealand dollars. The euro gained 0.04% to $1.0760, with traders also focused on Thursday's interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, following its policy meeting. The U.S. dollar index edged marginally higher to 103.59, after falling to 103.24 on Monday, its lowest since May 23. "The central bank will likely continue to send a dovish message or one of no intention of policy change until it changes direction." In Asia, China's central bank cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, sending the yuan falling in the offshore market .
Persons: Joseph Capurso, Jane Foley, Chong, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Labor Department's CPI, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Rabobank, Bank of Japan, Standard Chartered Bank Korea, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan, Asia
Pig prices soared in Europe last year as output was cut by farms squeezed by high grain and energy costs. The EU pork industry has been buffeted in the past decade by a Russian trade embargo, the westward spread of African swine fever and the COVID-19 pandemic. "We're continuing to add costs to the overall pork production chain," Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank, said. That may mean EU pork exports, whose share of production more than doubled to 21% between 2000 and 2020, have peaked. But an inflationary economy may make consumers less ready to accept rising pork prices and deepen a shift towards chicken as a cheaper, more convenient option.
Persons: Carole Joliff, Joliff, Jean, Paul Simier, AKI, We're, Justin Sherrard, slaughterhouses, Klaus Kaiser, FICT, Rabobank's Sherrard, jamon serrano, prosciutto, Tim Koch, Gus Trompiz, Forrest Crellin, Michael Hogan, Johannes Birkebaek, Emma Pinedo, Toby Sterling, David Evans Organizations: European Union, Commission, Rabobank, BLE, Danish Crown, AMI, Thomson Locations: PARIS, Brittany, Europe, Russian, Hungarian, China, Japan, Denmark, Netherlands, Danish, France, Brazil, United States, Germany, EU, Paris, Hamburg, Copenhagen, Madrid, Amsterdam
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, while the Canadian dollar jumped after the Bank of Canada hiked rates. (USCPI=ECI)"We expect a fair degree of consolidation ahead of the Fed decision next week," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "That CPI number’s going to be critical for the Fed decision as well. Traders have also priced out most expectations that the Fed will cut rates this year as inflation remains above target. Australia's central bank chief on Wednesday stepped up a warning of more rate hikes ahead to temper rising price pressures.
Persons: Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, they’ll, Lou Brien, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton, Emelia, Nick Macfie Organizations: YORK, Canadian, Bank of Canada, CIBC Capital Markets, Traders, Rabobank, U.S, Fed, ECB, Reserve Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Toronto, Canada, Australia, Chicago, Reserve Bank of Australia, London
That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. dollar to its highest level since March. Just over 25% of economists in the poll, 23 of 86, forecast at least one Fed rate cut by the end of 2023, but that is down from 28% in the last poll. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release consumer price inflation data on June 13, the first day of the Fed meeting. "If most Fed officials feel at least another 25-basis-point hike will be necessary, it seems simplest to deliver that hike in June rather than 'skip'." Inflation as measured by core PCE was forecast to remain above 2% at least until 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Philip Marey, Janet Yellen, Andrew Hollenhorst, Oscar Munoz, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, U.S, Rabobank, Treasury, Bank of Canada, U.S . Labor Department, Citi, National Bureau of Economic Research, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Canadian
Dollar eases as chances for a U.S. rate rise ebb
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian dollar touched one-month highs as traders amped up bets for the country to raise rates and the Turkish lira hit record lows. "Over the last month or so, we've seen the market slowly pricing out the risks of a 2023 interest rate cut. Nonetheless, traders were attaching a higher chance that the BoC would raise Canadian interest rates again later on Wednesday. Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.3% to $1.2456, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.40 and the euro rose 0.2% to $1.0718. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira slid as much as 7.6% to a record low of 23.16 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Jane Foley, we've, Foley, Siong Sim, bitcoin, Coinbase, Binance, Zhao, Binance's, Rae Wee, Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank, U.S ., Rabobank, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Fed, Bank of Singapore, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHINA, China, Turkish, Singapore
African swine fever has for years disrupted the $250 billion global pork market. The next step will be nationwide authorisation, the first ever for an African swine fever vaccine, and possible sales overseas. "There will be a specific interest obviously," Vilsack said in an interview with Reuters in April, speaking about possible purchases of the Vietnamese vaccines. Use of unlicensed live-virus vaccines in China in past years raised concerns they caused the emergence of new strains of swine fever. Only limited data are available from China's trials on a live-virus vaccine against swine fever.
Persons: Gregorio Torres, Torres, Thomas Vilsack, Vilsack, WOAH, Francesco Guarascio, Phuong Nguyen, Khanh, Dominique Patton, Sonali Paul Organizations: Organisation for Animal Health, Reuters, Rabobank, United States Department of Agriculture, Thomson Locations: Vietnam, Hanoi, world's, HANOI, China, U.S, United States, Khanh Vu, Beijing
African swine fever has for years disrupted the $250 billion global pork market. The next step will be nationwide authorization, the first ever for an African swine fever vaccine, and possible sales overseas. Use of unlicensed live-virus vaccines in China in past years raised concerns they caused the emergence of new strains of swine fever. Only limited data are available from China’s trials on a live-virus vaccine against swine fever. NAVETCO, AVAC and Vietnam’s agriculture ministry, which is responsible for approval of veterinary vaccines, did not respond to requests for comment.
Persons: Gregorio Torres, , ” Torres, , Thomas Vilsack, ” Vilsack, WOAH Organizations: World Organization for Animal Health, Reuters, Rabobank, United States Department of Agriculture Locations: Vietnam, China, United States
Will OPEC+ announce more output cuts? Analysts have their say
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
May 31 (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+, meet on June 4 to discuss whether additional oil production cuts should be implemented. But going into the meeting this weekend, OPEC+ has given mixed signals on whether further cuts are likely, keeping oil prices volatile recently. HSBC:* "We think OPEC+ will wait to see the impact of the latest series of cuts before making any further changes to supply." Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler:* "We think OPEC+ is forced to react and one way or another will be inclined to cut." "A second cut would display their fears more openly and indicates greater weakness; we construe a second cut as a bearish signal unless the cuts are extremely substantive."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Viktor Katona, Arpan Varghese, Ashitha, Matthew Lewis Organizations: of, Petroleum, bbl, HSBC, RaboBank, Thomson Locations: Russia, OPEC, China, Bengaluru
[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen strengthened on news of the meeting, and held onto those gains, with the dollar last down 0.2% at 140.16 yen having earlier risen as high as 140.93, its highest since November 2022. That helped the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 104.53 in European trading its highest in 10 weeks, though then retreated to 104.02. "It seems to be win-win on almost any scenario for the dollar right now," said Jane Foley head of FX strategy at Rabobank. That, alongside a rethinking of market positioning - people had been dumping a lot of long dollar positioning since the end of last year - was supporting the dollar, she said.
[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON/SINGAPORE, May 30 (Reuters) - The yen strengthened on Tuesday on news of a meeting of Japan's finance ministry and central bank, while elsewhere the dollar rose to a two-month high against a basket of its peers after the U.S. debt ceiling deal. The dollar was last down 0.18% against the Japanese yen at 140.18 after the country's finance ministry said senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan and Financial Services Agency will meet from 5:30 p.m. (0830 GMT). Japanese central bank policy has been a major focus for investors in the past year after the BOJ last year intervened to strengthen the yen. Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale, said FX intervention at current levels was unlikely.
Turkish lira hits new record low after Erdogan election victory
  + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Turkey’s lira hit fresh record lows against the US dollar on Monday after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in Sunday’s presidential election, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The lira weakened to 20.065 to the dollar in early European trade, breaking through the previous record low touched on Friday. “Erdogan’s victory has seen further pressure on the Turkish lira,” said Benjamin Picton, senior macro strategist at Rabobank. Meanwhile, Turkish stocks enjoyed gains with the benchmark BIST-100 index up 3.5% and banking index rising more than 1%. The share of foreign asset managers holding Turkish stocks has dwindled in recent years and the market is chiefly driven by local investors.
SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Wednesday, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven amid the risk of a U.S. debt default and as traders trimmed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts following solid consumer spending data in the United States. Against a basket of peers, including the euro, yen and sterling, the dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.96, to its highest since early April. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by comments from Fed officials. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6232, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.
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