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☆ There was an intense debate at the Fed over pausing rate hikes, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Fed officials vigorously debated whether to hike rates again or hold them steady, according to minutes from the most recent meeting, released Wednesday. The Fed held its key federal funds rate steady at a range of 5-5.25%, snapping a streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes since the Fed began lifting rates in March 2022. The Fed wants to see the labor market, which include monthly job and wage gains, slow to a pace that’s consistent with 2% inflation. Job openings are down from their record high last year and the rate of quitting has slowed to near pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending has cooled in the past several months, according to figures from the Commerce Department.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, Quincy Krosby, Powell, “, Joe Biden’s Organizations: DC CNN — Fed, Fed, LPL, Commerce Department Locations: Washington, April’s

With inflation still high, Phil Blancato CEO Ladenburg Asset Management said Powell is "not wrong" to keep policy tight. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) hit an all-time high during the session and registered a record closing high for the second session in a row. [1/2]Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 27, 2023. The S&P banks index (.SPXBK) slipped 0.5% ahead of the Fed's annual stress test results after markets close on Wednesday. The S&P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 127 new lows.

Persons: Fed's Powell, Jerome Powell, Powell, Quincy Krosby, Phil Blancato, Brendan McDermid, decliners, LPL's Krosby, Oppenheimer, Mills, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, European Central Bank, Global, LPL, Management, Independence, Traders, Dow Jones, Apple Inc, Microsoft, P's, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Investors, Netflix Inc, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Quincy, United States, China, New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Russia back in investors' focus after weekend mutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure. After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and on commodities prices, as Russia is a major energy supplier. Goldberg said that despite the de-escalation, "investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious." “Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain,” particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Year-to-date the S&P 500 (.SPX) is up 13%, although it has lost steam in recent days with interest rates in focus.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Putin, Quincy Krosby, ” Krosby, Alastair Winter, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Rich Steinberg, Lananh Nguyen, Sinead Cruise, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Financial, TD Securities, LPL, Global Investment, U.S, Federal, Colony Group, Thomson Locations: Russia, Russian, Moscow, Rostov, Ukraine, New York, Washington, Argyll Europe, Boca Raton , Florida

☆ Small stocks are cheap and finally joining the market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Small cap stocks are domestic bellwethers, since smaller companies generate most of their revenue from US customers. Investors say that recent gains in small caps are helping prop up the burgeoning bull market, even as a potential economic downturn draws near. Cheap buysNow, the rally in small caps suggests that Wall Street is optimistic about the economy’s health. Some investors say cheap valuations and and hopes for a muted economic downturn means small caps look more attractive than they have in months. Optimism about the economyThe small caps’ rally is also an auspicious sign for the broader economy, says Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

Persons: they’ve, Rambus, ”, John Ragard, Quincy Krosby, Russell, Francis Gannon, Anna Rathbun Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Shockwave, Management, LPL, Penn Capital Management, Royce Investment Partners, Federal Reserve, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services Locations: New York, That’s

☆ Stock futures are little changed Tuesday night as market rally falters: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were near flat on Tuesday evening as investors took a breather from last week's market rally. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.03%. The S&P 500 slid 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.16%. Stocks are overbought and in need of a catalyst, according to Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. Indeed, last week the S&P 500 hit its highest level since April 2022 and posted its fifth consecutive positive week.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome Powell, Powell, Krosby, Winnebago Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FedEx, Dow, LPL, U.S, Home, Financial Locations: New York City . U.S, Quincy

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ Still-hawkish Fed pauses rate tightening after 10 straight hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

While the market expected a hawkish pause, this is even a little bit more hawkish than market participants anticipated and that’s why you’re having a negative reaction in risk assets. So, it does suggest that the Fed is looking to tighten policy further, but the big question is can the Fed credibly commit to two more rate hikes if they just decided to actually hold rates steady. And what is the threshold for further rate hikes? “GEORGE YOUNG, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, VILLERE & CO, NEW ORLEANS"This a pregnant pause, meaning that they said they're going to pause hikes today but they're going to increase later. ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS"We're seeing a more hawkish pause.

Persons: QUINCY KROSBY, Powell, He’s, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” ANDRZEJ SKIBA, ” GENNADIY GOLDBERG, they’ve, ” ELLEN HAZEN, Logan, Waller, “ GEORGE, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, They've, MICHAEL BROWN, hawkishly, WHITNEY WATSON, GOLDMAN, “, STOVALL, ” PAUL NOLTE, MICHAEL JAMES Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, RBC, CPI, PPI, Powell &, Cleveland Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, ORLEANS, GOLDMAN SACHS, Manheim, ALLENTOWN, CHICAGO

☆ S&P 500 futures are little changed as Wall Street counts down to Fed decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

S&P 500 futures traded near flat on Tuesday night as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy decision and subsequent press conference slated for Wednesday afternoon. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%. Nasdaq-100 futures slipped by 0.02%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 97 points, or about 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow added nearly 146 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched their highest levels since last April during the session.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Dow Jones, Dow, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, LPL

☆ Small caps are finally starting to join the rally in June. Here's how to play their comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small stocks are making big moves this month, which could signal good news is ahead for Wall Street. The Russell 2000 , which is made up of small-cap names, is higher by 7% in June. .RUT 1M mountain Russell 2000 in past month "Moreover, small-caps have traditionally served as a bellwether in terms of the broader economic landscape," Krosby added. On top of that, Wolfe Research strategist Rob Ginsberg warned that the Russell 2000 could run into some technical resistance after the recent rally. That said, there are ways investors can try to capitalize on the small-cap rally.

Persons: Russell, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Financial, of Labor Statistics, Wolfe Research, CNBC Pro, Energy, NOVA, Beam Therapeutics, Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: How quickly prospects change
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Kevin Mazur | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC she wouldn't be surprised if more banks start to consolidate, given the increased pressures on the banking system. The bottom lineProspects — for both firms and markets — changed as quickly and suddenly as the haze engulfed New York. Smaller companies are more sensitive to economic conditions because they tend not to have the financial heft to defy a downturn.

Persons: Chris Licht, Kevin Mazur, Janet Yellen, wouldn't, Yellen, Elon Musk, Licht's, Donald Trump, Matthew Furlong, Ryan Cohen, Cohen, GameStop's, Russell, That's, LPL, Quincy Krosby Organizations: CNN Worldwide, Warner Bros, Madison, Garden, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury, Millionaires, CNBC Millionaire Survey, Warner Bros Discovery, CNN, GameStop, Big Tech, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Nasdaq Locations: New York City, U.S, Mongolia, New York

☆ Further stock market advance depends on rally broadening out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The advance in those indexes, particularly the S & P 500, has been very uneven, even with last week's broad rally. Lowry Research analysts noted that investors simply in the S & P 500, or in tech stocks, were clearly in an up market. Lowry noted that 48.2% of all operating-company only stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week highs, which Lowry and others define as bear market territory. That's far worse than the 32% that were in bear market territory on February 2, when the S & P 500 was at a new high for the year. "Bull markets are hard-pressed to last when the number of stocks entering 'bear market territory' grows," Lowry noted.

Persons: You'd, Chadha, SPX, Venu Krishna, Lowry, Russell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Street Journal, Lowry Research, LPL

☆ Investors await crucial US debt ceiling vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 closed down 0.6% on Wednesday in a decline some analysts pinned partly on remaining uncertainty over the vote. Debt ceiling concerns periodically weighed on stock markets over the last week, although most investors expected an 11th-hour agreement. Investors have viewed the possibility of a U.S. default as an unlikely but potentially catastrophic event for global markets. "Investors do think it's going to pass. McCarthy predicted that the vote, expected around 8:30 p.m. (0030 GMT), would succeed, telling reporters, "It's going to become law."

Persons: Alan B, ”, Brad McMillan, Kevin McCarthy's, Joe Biden's, Quincy Krosby, it's, McCarthy, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S . House, Lancz, Associates Inc, Commonwealth Financial Network, Treasury, White, House Republicans, Kevin McCarthy's Republicans, Investors, Senate, LPL, Thomson Locations: U.S, “

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

“The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday. S&P Global Ratings stripped the United States of its coveted top rating over a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, a few days after a last-minute agreement the agency at the time said did not stabilize "medium-term debt dynamics." S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody's did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

☆ Wall St slips on debt ceiling uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks had rallied over the past two sessions on growing confidence a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt limit could be reached in coming days, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) climbing more than 2%. For the week, the Dow gained 0.38%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.65% and the Nasdaq advanced 3.04%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their biggest weekly percentage gains since the final week of March. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 14, 2023. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 79 new highs and 87 new lows.

A White House official confirmed the talks were resuming. "We've got to get movement from the White House and we don't have any movement yet," McCarthy told reporters during the pause in talks. A White House official said: "There are real differences between the parties on budget issues and talks will be difficult. Biden and McCarthy spent most of the year in an impasse with the White House insisting on a "clean" increase in the debt ceiling without conditions. A White House official said a deal remained possible.

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - U.S. House Republicans and President Joe Biden's Democratic administration on Friday paused talks on raising the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, rattling financial markets as the deadline to avoid default ticked closer. Talks at the Capitol broke up around midday, and there was no immediate word on when they would resume. A White House official said: "There are real differences between the parties on budget issues and talks will be difficult. Biden and McCarthy spent most of the year in an impasse with the White House insisting on a "clean" increase in the debt ceiling without conditions. Young and Ricchetti told reporters they were going to play it "by ear" as they departed the negotiating sessions, according to reporters for NBC News and ABC News.

☆ Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices rose less than expected in April, according to a Labor Department report Thursday that provides more hope that inflation is at least trending lower. The producer price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and services, increased 0.2%, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3% and after declining 0.4% in March. On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased just 2.3%, down from 2.7% in March and the lowest reading since January 2021. Though the PPI rise was less than expected, the services index increased 0.3%, the biggest move since November 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report stated. Gasoline prices rose 8.4%, pushing the goods index higher by 0.2%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, PPI, of Labor, LPL, Federal Reserve, CPI Locations: Washington

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

☆ The $31 trillion debt-ceiling fiasco could punish markets and it's complicating an already complex economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.

☆ Inflation rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, less than expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 5.5% from a year ago both in line with expectations. A widely followed measure of inflation rose in April, though the pace of the increase provided some hope that the cost of living will head lower later this year. Food prices, though, were flat while the energy index rose 0.6%, boosted by a 3% gain in gasoline. Of the six grocery store indexes the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to compute food prices, four showed declines. For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report.

☆ Stock futures are flat to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on February 01, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were flat on Sunday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. Stocks are coming off a volatile week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notch their worst weekly stretches since March. The Dow on Friday added more than 546 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped 1.85% and 2.25% respectively.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

☆ Regional bank stocks could be a market afterthought in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.

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