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HONG KONG, Jan 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s first big vacation of 2023 offers shallow relief to investors. Passenger car sales dropped 21% from the same festive period last year, per Nomura analysts, and real estate keeps plunging. Central bankers terrified that China’s reopening will fuel more global inflation will be relieved. Chinese consumers enjoyed their holiday but there was little sign of dramatic “revenge consumption.” Scarred consumers have too many reasons to avoid splurging for the foreseeable future. The opinions expressed are her own)Follow @ywchen1 on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSMainland China’s Lunar New Year holiday runs from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27 in 2023.
HONG KONG, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Macau is bounding into the Year of the Rabbit. Meanwhile arrivals from China and Hong Kong reached roughly 40% of 2019 traffic as of Jan. 13, per Morgan Stanley. That is remarkable given the mainland and Macau only relaxed restrictions less than two weeks ago. Melco Resorts & Entertainment , MGM China (2282.HK), Sands China (1928.HK) and Wynn Macau (1128.HK) have seen their leverage ratios swell. Ultimately to rebalance borrowings, Macau needs returning visitors to spend as much – or more – as they did in the past.
Yet China’s demographic doom is not certain. It is hard to boost birth rates, but France and Scandinavia show it can be done. If last year’s population plunge inspires Beijing to smarten up policy, demographic stress need not augur economic decline. The birth rate was 6.77 per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 in 2021 and marking the lowest such reading on record. United Nations analysts project China's population will shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the rate of their previous forecast in 2019.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made no adjustments to its yield-curve control (YCC) policy that keeps interest rates ultra-low on Wednesday. However, that tweak’s failure to reduce the need of central bank intervention has left the BOJ with little appetite for more compromises. Instead Kuroda rolled out a new tool to hold interest rates down, signaling intervention will continue. CONTEXT NEWSThe Bank of Japan on Jan. 18 kept its ultra-low interest rates policy unchanged and maintained a bond yield cap band it has struggled to defend. Under the amended rules, the central bank can offer funds of up to 10 years against collateral to financial institutions for both fixed and variable-rate loans.
Follow @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSHong Kong-listed Apollo Future Mobility said on Jan. 12 that it had agreed to buy Chinese electric-car maker WM Motor Global for HK$15.9 billion ($2.02 billion). To fund the acquisition of its larger peer, Apollo will issue 28.8 billion new shares at HK$0.55 each. Apollo shares fell 8.6% and were trading at HK$0.23 by market close on Jan. 12. WM Motor Global filed for a Hong Kong initial public offering in May 2022, but the application lapsed in November. WM Motor Global’s owner, WM Motor Holdings, is the largest shareholder in Apollo Future Mobility, and WM Motor founder Freeman Shen sits on the latter’s board as co-chair.
TSMC foots the bill for global chip supremacy
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) on Thursday reported a bumper end to 2022, with December quarter earnings up a blistering 78% year-on-year to a record $9.7 billion. But costs, from overseas expansion, research and development and other factors are forecast to eat into profitability as the market enters a downturn. But TSMC also flagged R&D expenses will rise by a fifth this year, as developing next-generation technology gets pricier. Moreover, the company's new factories in the United States are adding to TSMC's expenses: executives said that construction costs are five times higher in America than in Taiwan. Capital expenditure is also forecast to be as much as $36 billion in 2023, roughly matching last year's level.
Uniqlo goes out on a limb in salary hike
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HONG KONG, Jan 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Fast Retailing (9983.T), owner of the Uniqlo clothing chain, announced it would hike wages by up to 40% for some roles on Wednesday. The bigger question, though, is how much of an outlier Fast Retailing will be. Although Japan’s labour market is tight, weak growth and rising prices have caused real wages to contract for eight consecutive months through November. Fast Retailing, set to announce earnings today, was a market outperformer last year and is preparing a 3-1 stock split. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Nickel markets brace for nail-biting threequel
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HONG KONG, Jan 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda, notorious for disrupting the London Metal Exchange’s nickel trade last year and the year before, may have done it again. His Tsingshan Holding is planning to pump up production of refined nickel by repurposing a number of copper plants, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 9. If he succeeds, his novel strategy to take advantage of higher prices could double Chinese output of the metal products. In 2021, the entrepreneur sent prices plummeting when his group announced deals to deliver nickel matte to Chinese electric-car battery material suppliers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
HONG KONG, Jan 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has taken the mic away from combative foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. His transfer follows other de-escalatory moves, thawing relations with major trading partners including Australia, Japan and the United States. It will still take years to undo the diplomatic and economic damage his pack of “wolf warriors” has done to Chinese interests. loadingChinese moderates have criticised the wolf warriors’ competence. With the Western democracies demonstrating the durability of their power in Ukraine without firing a shot, Chinese pandemic policy in shambles and its economy reeling, it’s unsurprising if the wolf warriors are quieting their howl.
Singapore withstands a global property downturn
  + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HONG KONG, Jan 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Property is crashing everywhere, except in Singapore. The Asian city-state’s private residential prices are up 14% year-on-year, according to third-quarter data from Knight Frank. That’s a sharp contrast to major cities like Hong Kong and Sydney, which saw decreases of 7% and 4% respectively over the same period. Home prices in Hong Kong, the world’s least affordable property market by far, could fall by as much as 30% by the end of 2023 from 2021 levels, reckon analysts at Goldman Sachs. Still, Leonard Tay, an analyst at Knight Frank, predicts an up to 5% increase for private home prices in 2023.
Elon Musk’s will-they-or-won’t-they Twitter debacle kept readers on tenterhooks via Refinitiv’s platforms and our two websites, Breakingviews.com and Reuters.com. Another piece posing the hard-hitting question, “What is Morgan Stanley (MS.N) smoking in Twitter LBO?”, garnered plenty of clicks on Breakingviews.com and via Refinitiv. Almost a third of the best-read lists tackled the outbreak of war in Europe, and its terrible ramifications. Views on the rouble and the prospect of the country’s economic collapse demanded attention. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
If more female fans tune in, they will help Chief Executive Stefano Domenicali fuel revenue at his motor-racing division. Around 40% of F1 fans are now female, up 8% from 2017, and more women are attending races too, Domenicali said in November. One way to accelerate the trend could be featuring female drivers. She also boasts a fanbase of over half a million social media followers – more than the W Series itself. Unfortunately for Formula One, when financial pressures ended W Series 2022 early, she absconded to Andretti Autosport’s team for the U.S. IndyCar NXT races.
Climate change will become a CEO dealbreaker
  + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
While StarMark Financial again delivered record earnings in 2022, my own views on climate change are no longer compatible with my duties as the CEO of a global financial firm. A Pew Research survey last year showed that respondents in nine countries including the United Kingdom, France and Spain ranked climate change as the most pressing of five threats to the country. While we believe that supporting measures that advance climate change mitigation creates value, it is clear that some large public-sector clients disagree. At the same time, some Democrat-led local governments have threatened to take business away from us if we take too mild a stance on climate risk. I believe we face the risk that climate change will prove catastrophic within our lifetimes.
Apple finds a happy home in India
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Pranav Kiran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Helped by generous subsidies, Taiwanese Apple suppliers are starting to churn out more iPhones in India. Analysts at JPMorgan reckon India will have 6% of iPhone manufacturing capacity in 2022, and the rest will remain in China. Incentives and other subsidies partially compensate for inefficiencies in India, where demand for pricier devices is slowly picking up. HDFC Securities estimates that for an average smartphone, as little as 14% of the value is added in India. Whether or not India gets that far, Apple at least gets a happy new home.
HONG KONG, Dec 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - America’s chip war against China will make only partial inroads in 2023. After unveiling sweeping new export restrictions in October, Washington appears to have successfully lobbied friendly governments including Japan and the Netherlands to join. Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher already said in November her government "will not copy the American measures one-to-one". Rival Nikon (7731.T) made sales of over 153 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in China, some 28% of total. In November, Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher confirmed the Netherlands was in talks with the U.S. government about new export restrictions.
NISEKO, Japan, Dec 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The history of Sino-American diplomatic relations is not replete with unequivocal U.S. negotiating victories. State-owned giants including oil refiner Sinopec (600028.SS) voluntarily decamped while its peer CNOOC (0883.HK) was booted off on a separate government order. Their departure helped erase over half a trillion dollars from the collective value of Chinese companies there between June and September. Scandals overseas do not help: many Chinese investors, for instance, had stakes in Luckin. For their part, Chinese regulators tightened cybersecurity reviews of companies listing abroad, alleviating the concerns of officials who suspect American intentions.
India bank sale sharpens valuation rivalry
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316.T), Carlyle (CG.O) and Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO) may each be eyeing some of the 61% stake on offer in $7 billion IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS), per reports by The Economic Times and Mint. These latecomers’ share of outstanding loans fell to 55% in March 2022 from 70% in 2016, per Reserve Bank of India data. CONTEXT NEWSIndia on Dec. 14 extended the deadline to submit preliminary bids for the sale of a controlling stake in IDBI Bank to Jan. 7 from Dec. 16. New Delhi intends to sell 30.48%; Life Insurance Corporation of India, which is almost entirely government-owned, will sell a 30.24% stake. Carlyle, Fairfax Financial and DBS Bank are considering bidding for at least 10% each in IDBI Bank, Mint reported on Nov. 7, citing unnamed sources.
ECB will have to stay laggard in bond-buying exit
  + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Rising yields and a still frail euro zone mean that Europe’s so-called quantitative tightening (QT) should be slow. If it stopped reinvesting all maturing debt from March, its bond portfolio would shrink by 287 billion euros next year. If bond yields do spike, the ECB can step in with an emergency bond-buying programme, called the Transmission Protection Instrument. The real dangers of a disorderly exit mean the ECB has little choice but to remove the punchbowl slowly. The shift is a reversal of nearly a decade of monetary stimulus by the ECB as the euro zone went through several crises.
HONG KONG, Dec 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s bankers and officials fantasise about the moment China finally ditches its Covid-19 restrictions. Mainland Chinese firms account for eight of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s (0388.HK) ten largest ever IPOs. It remains faster for Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong, rather than join the long queue on the mainland. Hong Kong could also host more offerings from places like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, as Cha envisions. IPOs on the Hong Kong exchange have raised $7.1 billion so far in 2022, according to Refinitiv data for the year up to Dec. 7.
UniCredit CEO Orcel has leverage in pay debate
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Under UniCredit’s remuneration policies, Orcel receives 2.5 million euros in salary, with the potential for twice that via an annual bonus. A regulatory cap prevents UniCredit from paying its CEO a bigger bonus, so the board may have to hike his fixed salary to pay him more. UniCredit Chairman Pier Carlo Padoan said Orcel has not asked for a pay rise. Follow @LJucca on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSItalian lender UniCredit will review the pay package of its Chief Executive Andrea Orcel ahead of its 2023 general meeting. Orcel’s pay package envisages a fixed salary of 2.5 million euros a year and a bonus of up 5 million euros.
Western firms’ Chinese red lines are not their own
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Yet companies’ red lines on China are out of their hands. Undeterred by growing geopolitical tensions and slowing Chinese growth, several Western companies have this year intensified the rate at which they bet on the People’s Republic. If Western states decide to impose sanctions, boards would have their red lines decided for them. Western companies will keep betting on the Middle Kingdom, until their governments stop them. The report predicts China will become the largest global market for luxury goods by 2025.
UK banks’ Big Bang thankfully looks like big flop
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Yet, the mooted changes would probably only benefit middling lenders like Santander UK, Virgin Money (VMUK.L) and Banco Sabadell’s (SABE.MC) TSB Bank, according to the FT. And on Wednesday, the BoE’s supervisory body said it planned largely to stick to international bank-capital rules, dubbed Basel 3.1. But the big flop might not be such a bad thing for the country’s financial sector. Separately, the government’s City minister Andrew Griffith said on Nov. 29 that he wanted to relax the so-called ringfencing regime that forces large British lenders to separate their retail and investment banking arms. According to the Financial Times, the ringfencing regime would still apply to the biggest UK banks but there could be exemptions for lenders with limited trading operations including Santander UK, Virgin Money and TSB Bank.
Manchester United buyer will need love and money
  + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Anyone who wants to buy Manchester United (MANU.N) will need deep pockets and a big heart. The famous soccer club’s controlling shareholders, the Glazer family, said on Tuesday they’re considering selling after 17 years. The Glazers kicked off the trend of American sport investors buying British clubs when they took control of Manchester United in 2005. Soccer clubs’ revenue has boomed due to increasing demand from broadcasters and richer sponsorship deals. Manchester United benefited not just from being one of global football’s strongest brands, but also by roping in local sponsors like Japanese noodle makers.
That puts Hong Kong in a league of its own. The competitive tension between Hong Kong and Singapore is greater than ever. The danger is that Hong Kong’s new embrace of virtual assets will set up a regulatory race to the bottom, even if FTX’s collapse means it might happen at a slower pace. The policy statement notes that retail investors in other markets have been granted exposure to virtual assets including through exchange-traded products. Column by Thomas Shum in Hong Kong, Pranav Kiran in Bengaluru.
SocGen’s BNP envy carries a cost
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
It mimics BNP Paribas’s (BNPP.PA) deal with European peer Exane, which the French group took over last year. SocGen research analysts cover around 500 mostly European stocks, according to JPMorgan, compared with AllianceBernstein’s more international coverage of roughly 800 companies. Second, the venture makes the French bank’s equities business less reliant on derivatives and structured products, which led to heavy losses in 2020. Trading cash equities and selling research typically chews up much less capital and leads to fewer blow-ups. And the wider equities trading business is increasingly dominated by larger players, especially U.S. banks.
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