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☆ Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap milestone is the latest in a string of wins for Big Tech's elder statesman
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Microsoft notching another big win by briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation. It's an impressive run for a company often viewed as the least sexy in Big Tech. 3 things in marketsInstagram/grandmabetty33The stock market is looking gray, and that's a bad thing. A famed economist said you shouldn't confuse a booming stock market with a strong economy. Nobel economist Paul Krugman recently wrote about how consumers feel too optimistic about the economy due to the current stock market rally.

Persons: —, Ethan Miller, Phil Rosen, OpenAI, Ashley Stewart, Tim Matsui, Ashley, That's, it's, It'll, aren't, We're, Taylor, Paul Krugman, Patrick Pleul, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff chatted, Brad Barket, Jon Stewart, Stewart, Trevor Noah, Donald Trump, Jean Carroll's Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Big, Rosenberg Research, AP Tesla, EV, Microsoft Windows, Walmart, Comedy Central, Bank of America, Intel, Visa, Southwest Airlines, Comcast Locations: Big Tech

☆ Why Does Consumer Sentiment Follow the Stock Market? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2024 election. Well, actually, a lot of funny things happened. As I wrote in my latest column, there seems to have been a sudden upswing in consumer sentiment, which is finally starting to catch up with the reality that inflation has plunged while unemployment has remained low. And I do mean sudden. Here’s a chart from the Michigan survey, the most widely cited measure of consumer sentiment:

Persons: Ron DeSantis Locations: Michigan

☆ Why Americans Are Feeling Better About the Economy - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In 2022, Republicans seemed to have an easy path to regaining the White House, no actual policy proposals required. All they had to do was contrast Donald Trump’s economic record — which they portrayed as stellar — with the lousy economy under President Biden. That rosy view of the Trump economy involved a lot of selective forgetting — more about that in a minute. But the Biden economy was indeed troubled for much of 2022, with the highest inflation in 40 years. How can people claim that Trump presided over a great economy when he was the first president since Herbert Hoover to leave the White House with fewer Americans employed than when he arrived?

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Biden, Trump, Herbert Hoover Organizations: Jobs, Republican

☆ China is entering an era of stagnation and disappointment that may not be resolved like Japan's, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is headed for an era of stagnation and disappointment, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman wrote. The country's economic model has been unsustainable for years, given ultra-low consumer spending. "Let's not gloat about China's economic stumble, which may become everyone's problem." AdvertisementBut even under better stewardship, China's economic approach has been unsustainable for years and was set to break down eventually. "Let's not gloat about China's economic stumble, which may become everyone's problem."

Persons: Nobel, Paul Krugman, —, Krugman, Xi, That's Organizations: Service, New York Times Locations: China, Japan, Tokyo, Beijing

☆ Opinion | China’s Economy Is in Serious Trouble
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Many economists (though not me) argued that getting inflation down would require years of high unemployment; instead, we’ve experienced immaculate disinflation, rapidly falling inflation at no visible cost. But the story has been very different in the world’s biggest economy (or second biggest — it depends on the measure). Instead, China has underperformed by just about every economic indicator other than official G.D.P., which supposedly grew by 5.2 percent. Democratic nations like the United States rarely politicize their economic statistics — although ask me again if Donald Trump returns to office — but authoritarian regimes often do. Even the official statistics say that China is experiencing Japan-style deflation and high youth unemployment.

Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, It’s Organizations: Democratic Locations: U.S, China, United States, Japan

☆ Will Red Sea Shipping Disruptions Worsen Inflation? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

There are many reasons to be horrified about recent events in the Middle East, and the prospect that attacks on shipping might undermine progress against inflation is way, way down the list. Nonetheless, if you are trying to forecast inflation, disruption of a major choke point for global commerce — the Red Sea is how ships get to and from the Suez Canal — isn’t what you want to see. Since there’s no reason to expect these more diffuse problems to return, the inflation impact of the conflict with the Houthis and its effect on Red Sea shipping will be limited. But anyone citing that number as evidence of stubborn inflation is deeply misinformed. Indeed, if he or she is in the business of giving financial advice, harping on 3.9 percent amounts to professional malpractice.

Persons: I’ve, they’ve Organizations: Consumer Locations: Suez, Los Angeles

☆ Opinion | Full Employment Is Good for Society
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

By then, he had come to see fighting for economic equality as a crucial part of the struggle for civil rights. By many measures, the economic divide between Black and white Americans was as wide in the late 2010s as it was in the late 1960s. The good news: Over the past few years, we’ve seen a significant decline in inequality on multiple dimensions, including a narrowing of the gap between Black and white Americans. Did the racial economic gap persist so long because the civil rights movement failed to make any progress against racism and discrimination? Overt racial discrimination has become relatively rare — partly because of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 — and implicit discrimination has probably declined, because we are a less racist society than we were.

Persons: Martin Luther King Jr, we’ve Organizations: Civil Locations: Memphis

☆ Opinion | Nikki Haley’s Views on Social Security
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The problem of an impending shortfall of the Social Security Trust Fund is in significant part a consequence of our rising economic inequality. High-income people pay a smaller share of their income into Social Security because salary over $160,200 — the so-called “tax max” — is not subject to the Social Security tax. Also, there is no Social Security tax on income from capital (including dividends, interest, capital gains and rents), which tends to go to wealthy people. Consequently, as a larger and larger part of our national income goes to the rich, the share collected by the Social Security tax declines. The solution is not hard to envision: Raise the “tax max” and tax income from capital.

Persons: “ Haley, Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Social Security, Social Security Trust Fund, Social

☆ Wall Street's dream of 'immaculate disinflation' is becoming reality and the economy is doing a lot better than people think, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Immaculate disinflation" is becoming a reality, according to Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Inflation coming down without sparking a recession is a dream scenario for Wall Street. By a number of metrics, the economy is better off than it was a few years ago, Krugman said. AdvertisementWall Street's dream scenario is becoming a reality – and despite gloomy sentiment in pockets of the market, the economy is actually doing way better than people think, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. But slowing inflation hasn't triggered a rise in unemployment or the start of a recession, pushing Wall Street closer to its dream scenario.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, —, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, New York Times, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank

☆ The Biden Economy Is Doing Fine - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The tenth is what Gordon Gekko, in the movie “Wall Street,” called a “$400,000-a-year working Wall Street stiff.”Then the stiff leaves for a while, maybe to answer a call of nature. Because it’s most of the story of wages in the U.S. economy since Covid-19 struck. In 2020 the average wage of workers who still had a job shot up, because those who were laid off were disproportionately low-wage service workers. Then, as people resumed in-person shopping, started going to restaurants and so on, growth in average wages was held down because those low-wage workers were being rehired. You need to look through these “compositional effects” to figure out what was really happening to earnings as that played out.

Persons: Gordon Gekko, ” Locations: U.S

☆ Opinion | Nikki Haley Is Coming for Your Retirement
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It feels like years ago, but actually only a few months have passed since many big Republican donors seemed to believe that Ron DeSantis could effectively challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. At this point, both conventional wisdom and prediction markets say that Trump has a virtual lock on the nomination. But Wall Street isn’t completely resigned to Trump’s inevitability; there has been a late surge in big-money support for Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. From a political point of view, one answer might be: nothing. Haley has never really shown a willingness to stand up to Republican extremists — and at this point the whole G.O.P.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Trump, isn’t, Nikki Haley, Haley, — Organizations: Republican Locations: South Carolina

☆ Why Economic Feelings Are a Partisan Thing - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Almost two years have passed since I began trying to draw people’s attention to the widening gap between economic perceptions and economic reality. At the time the economic picture was mixed, with rapid job growth yet also rising inflation; even given that mixed picture, consumer sentiment seemed abnormally low. I think it’s fair to say that I encountered a lot of pushback. Inflation was, after all, rising, and many economists warned that getting it back down would require a punishing recession. Unemployment is still near a 50-year low, yet inflation has been falling fast; consumer prices didn’t rise at all in October, although that was partly statistical noise.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Biden

☆ Opinion | No, Immigrants Aren’t ‘Poisoning the Blood of Our Country’
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

According to the census, Queens is the most racially and ethnically diverse county in the continental United States; it’s hard to think of a nationality or culture that isn’t represented there. Immigrants are almost half the borough’s population and more than half its work force. And no, Queens isn’t an urban hellscape. It’s also relatively healthy, with life expectancy around three years higher than that of the United States as a whole. But Trump has declared that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country” — a phrase that, to steal from the late, great Molly Ivins, might sound better in the original German.

Persons: Donald Trump, isn’t, It’s, Trump, Molly Ivins, MAGA Locations: Queens, United States, Jackson, New York City, New York, America

☆ Biden and a Feel-Bad Economy - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

As of September, consumer prices were about 19 percent higher than they were on the eve of the pandemic. And lecturing voters about why that’s the wrong way to think about it is not, shall we say, a promising political strategy. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a temporary surge in prices that leveled off but never went back down. But we do have such data for the early 1950s, and it suggests that people were relatively upbeat on the economy despite higher prices. Whatever is really going on, was there something Biden or the Federal Reserve could have done that would have mollified voters?

Persons: we’ve, Harry Truman, Biden Organizations: Federal

☆ Opinion | Why Did So Many Economists Get Disinflation Wrong?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The bottom line is that disinflation is real — indeed, spectacular. Are we all the way back to 2 percent inflation? But we’ve gotten most of the way there, without a recession or even a large rise in unemployment. Still, what strikes me about the dire inflation predictions of summer and fall 2022 is their non sequiturness (non sequituritality?). One strand of argument involved parallels with the inflation of the 1970s, which was indeed very hard to get down.

Persons: we’ve, wouldn’t, Biden, pessimists

☆ Opinion | Why Does the Right Hate America?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But is America beyond the political realm also in crisis? A recent essay by Damon Linker in The Times profiled conservative intellectuals whose writing, he argued, helps explain where the MAGA right is coming from. What struck me, reading some of their work, is the dire portrait they paint of the state of our nation. For example, Patrick Deneen’s “Regime Change” describes America thus: “Once-beautiful cities and towns around the nation have succumbed to an ugly blight. Do they have any sense, from personal memory or reading, of what America was like 30 or 50 years ago?

Persons: Damon, MAGA, Patrick Deneen’s Organizations: Times Locations: America

☆ Opinion: Israel-Hamas war’s endgame
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +20 min

We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. Last week, as Israel continued its military response to the October 7 Hamas terror attack, its political goals — and potential endgame — remained a source of huge controversy. Join us on Twitter and Facebook“Take, for example, the Israel Defense Forces strike on Gaza’s Jabalya refugee camp on Tuesday. “Following the horrific massacre in Israel by Hamas terrorists on October 7, I felt an intense, relentless grief. Though Perry wanted to escape Chandler, he kept him around, because heaven forbid anyone saw what he was hiding.”

Persons: Gideon Rose, ”, ” Rose, —, Joe Biden, Robert A . Pape, “, ” DJ Rosenthal, Obama, ’ inhumanity, Jordan, Antony Blinken, ” Shai Davidai, Nadia AbuShaban, Hashem, David Shulkin, Peter Bergen, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Karl Rove, “ Mike Pence, Geoff Duncan, Nikki Haley, Duncan, Ron DeSantis, ” Haley, DeSantis, Lisa Benson, GoComics.com, Michael Ramirez, Trump, Norman Eisen, Joshua Kolb, Donald Trump’s, ” Eisen, Kolb, Leah Abucayan, CNN Maggie Jackson, ” She’s, Gabriel Levin, Frida Ghitis, ‘ Allahu akbar, ’, Ghitis, Wen, Julian Zelizer, Johnson’s, Mike Johnson’s, Biden, ” Paul Krugman, Johnson, Mike Johnson, ’ ”, John Avlon, “ Merriam, It’s, Benjamin Franklin, ’ ” Drew Sheneman, Nicole Hemmer, SBF Clay Jones, Sam Bankman, Howard Fischer, ” Fischer, Sophie Compton, Reuben Hamlyn, “ Chillingly, Taylor, Compton, Hamlyn, Walt Handelsman, Laura Tillman, ” Don’t, Jill Filipovic, Celia Wexler, Pope Francis, Elena Sheppard, ‘, Matthew Perry, Chandler Bing Reisig, Dean Obeidallah, Perry, Chandler Bing, Chandler, ” “ Chandler, I’m Chandler, ‘ I’m, ” Perry, ” Holly Thomas, “ Perry, Roger Organizations: CNN, University of Chicago, ”, Hamas, US National Security Council, Twitter, Facebook, Israel Defense Forces, Israel, Columbia Business School, “, New York Times, Street Journal, GOP, Republican, Trump, UN, Florida Gov, Wednesday’s GOP, Supreme, White, Cornell University, The Cornell Daily Sun, Cornell, Progressives, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Office, Electoral College, America, Agency, FBI, NBCU, Bank, Getty Locations: States, Iraq, Israel, Southern Lebanon, Lebanon, Palestinian, “ Israel, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Tel Aviv, Gaza, ”, Florida, Wednesday’s, Rhode, Rhode Island, Dagestan, Russian, Lewiston , Maine

☆ Opinion | Israel, the I.R.S. and the Big Grift
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It often seems to me that we need a term to describe a somewhat similar phenomenon in policy debates, which we might call the Big Grift. A case in point is the current demand by House Republicans that funding for Israel in this moment of crisis be tied to budget cuts that would undermine the ability of the Internal Revenue Service to crack down on wealthy tax cheats. This should be a major scandal, but my suspicion is that many voters just won’t accept the idea that G.O.P. Some history: Way back in 2001, in the aftermath of Sept. 11, House Republicans passed a bill responding to the emergency by … cutting corporate taxes. At the time, my sources told me that when political consultants tried to describe the bill to focus groups of voters, they refused to believe that the legislation was being described accurately.

Persons: balk Organizations: House Republicans, Israel, Internal Revenue Service, Republicans

☆ Military Spending Is Something Both Political Extremes Get Wrong - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Then there’s the war in Ukraine, where many on both the far left and the far right want to cut off aid, effectively giving Vladimir Putin victory. There are multiple reasons for that convergence, most of which I’ll leave to other analysts. But one common theme on the left and the right is the claim that we can’t afford the expense of that aid. What people making such claims should know is that their views about how much we spend on the military are generations out of date. Military spending today is much smaller as a share of the economy than it was then:

Persons: Vladimir Putin, I’ve, Dwight Eisenhower Organizations: Ukraine Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Spanish

☆ United Auto Workers Strike a Blow for Equality - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Some history you should know: Baby boomers like me grew up in a nation that was far less polarized economically than the one we live in today. For example, chief executives of major corporations were paid “only” 15 times as much as their average workers, compared with more than 200 times as much as their average workers now. But income gaps remained narrow for decades after these controls were lifted; overall income inequality didn’t really take off again until around 1980. Unions are a force for greater wage equality; they also help enforce the “outrage constraint” that used to limit executive compensation. Conversely, the decline of unions, which now represent less than 7 percent of private-sector workers, must have played a role in the coming of the Second Gilded Age we live in now.

Persons: Claudia Goldin, Robert Margo Organizations: Unions Locations: America

☆ Opinion | Speaker Mike Johnson and the Role of Religion in Politics
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

To the Editor:Re “Speaker Injects Fervent Faith Into His Policy” (front page, Oct. 29):I am pleased to know that our new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, takes his Christian faith seriously. Ginger LennonPrinceton, N.J.To the Editor:Speaker Mike Johnson declares that he derives his worldview from the Bible. Thomas M. GinnWinston-Salem, N.C.To the Editor:Re “Welcome, Speaker Johnson, to the Worst Job in Politics,” by Benjamin Domenech (Opinion guest essay, nytimes.com, Oct. 27):The new House speaker, Mike Johnson, faces a critical challenge in our country’s history and the history of his party. So, good luck, Mr. Speaker. After reading Mr. Bouie’s column about the new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, I could only think, what have we come to?

Persons: Mike Johnson, Sheldon W, Bennett Quincy, Ginger Lennon Princeton, Paul Krugman, Johnson, Bill Eiffert San, Donald J, Trump, narcissist, Thomas M, Ginn Winston, Benjamin Domenech, Let’s, Willie Dickerson Snohomish, Jamelle Bouie, Mr, Donald Trump, Harvey Glassman Boynton Organizations: Electoral College, Republican Locations: Mass, United States, N.J, Bill Eiffert San Diego, Salem, N.C, America, Wash, Harvey Glassman Boynton Beach, Fla

☆ Opinion | The G.O.P. Goes Full-on Extremist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Oh, no doubt some members are privately appalled by the views of Mike Johnson, the new speaker. What matters is what they do — and every single one of them went along with the selection of a radical extremist. There has also been considerable coverage of Johnson’s right-wing social views, but I’m not sure how many people grasp the depth of his intolerance. Johnson isn’t just someone who wants to legalize discrimination against L.G.B.T.Q. But Johnson’s extremism, and that of the party that chose him, goes beyond rejecting democracy and trying to turn back the clock on decades of social progress.

Persons: Mike Johnson, Johnson, I’m, Johnson isn’t, he’s Organizations: Republicans, L.G.B.T.Q

☆ Why Do People Think Crime Is Worse Than it Actually Is? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The big question was whether the post-Covid surge in crime would, like the post-Covid surge in inflation, prove transitory. I should acknowledge that while violent crime is clearly on the downswing, some forms of property crime are still running high. Politicians will run campaigns promising to defend Americans against a terrifying crime wave, even as crime is receding nationwide. In addition to having false beliefs about trends in crime over time, many Americans have false beliefs about the geography of crime. Back in April, the Republican-controlled House Judiciary Committee held a “field hearing” on “victims of violent crime in Manhattan.”

Persons: ” Organizations: Democrats, New York, Republican Locations: New York City, New York, America, Manhattan

☆ Opinion | The Secret of America’s Economic Success
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the United States, 20 million jobs suddenly disappeared. Indeed, as we approach Covid’s four-year mark, many of the world’s economies remain well short of full recovery. But not the United States. Not only have we had the strongest recovery in the advanced world, but the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook also points out that American growth since 2019 has actually exceeded pre-Covid projections. But let’s take a moment to celebrate this good economic news — and try to figure out what went right with the U.S. economy.

Persons: — Organizations: Monetary Locations: United States, U.S

☆ Elon Musk's next headache after Tesla's earnings flop could be users ditching X over Israel-Hamas misinformation, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk, already reeling after Tesla's earnings flop, could see X users ditch his platform. Israel-Hamas misinformation might be a "tipping point" for the social-media site, Paul Krugman says. The Nobel laureate expects X users to start leaving for rival platforms like Threads and Bluesky. AdvertisementAdvertisementElon Musk is already reeling after Tesla's earnings miss slashed its stock price by 9% on Thursday. Things could go from bad to worse for the tech billionaire, as the spread of misinformation about the war between Israel and Hamas could drive people away from his X platform, according to Paul Krugman.

Persons: Elon Musk, Paul Krugman, —, Krugman, Jack Dorsey, Sander van der Linden, Musk Organizations: Service, European Union, New York Times, Meta Locations: Israel

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