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☆ Markets think falling inflation means rate cuts are around the corner. Here's why that's probably wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in July briefly spiked up to 50% this past week. But the Fed is unlikely to swing from 10 straight rate hikes to cuts within two months, a Truist Advisory economist said. The probability spiked to nearly 50% over the past week after the release of the April inflation report and another sell-off in regional bank stocks like PacWest. That's when policymakers thought they got a handle on high inflation after an initial round of rate hikes. What's likely to jumpstart rate cuts is job losses, which could arrive toward the end of this year, Skordeles said.

☆ Investors may be crowding too much into defensive stocks amid market jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 posted its second straight weekly decline, falling 0.3% this week. Given this backdrop, investors have turned to several consumer staples — traditionally seen as defensive stocks — to shore up their portfolios. Mondelez , PepsiCo and Molson Coors — all staples — are the most overbought S & P 500 names through Friday's session. Shares of Mondelez have rallied more than 16% year to date, easily outperforming the S & P 500's 7.4% advance. Estee Lauder is the most oversold S & P 500 stock.

☆ Yellen expects US regulators to be open to mergers among midsize banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

... Read moreNIIGATA, Japan, May 13 (Reuters) - The current banking environment and pressures on earnings of some U.S. regional banks may lead to some concentration in the sector, and regulators will likely be open to such mergers, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Saturday. Yellen told Reuters she was not seeing evidence of pressure on smaller community banks, which had a large percentage of insured deposits. She expressed confidence that nearly all banks had access to sufficient liquidity to guard against unexpected deposit outflows from uninsured depositors. However, she said a certain degree of consolidation in the regional and midsize banking sector could occur. Yellen noted that pressure on a bank's stock could unsettle uninsured depositors.

☆ AMERICAS Debt cap tick-tock leaves eerie calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The issue dominated much of the G7 finance chiefs meeting in Japan. Dimon claimed any technical default could cause financial panic and JPMorgan had convened a 'war room' internally to deal with the issue. "It's very unfortunate, it's time-consuming, hopefully it won't happen, but it affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients," Dimon said. Chinese stocks underperformed, with the G7 meeting mulling restrictions on investment to the world's second-biggest economy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaksReuters GraphicsJobless claimsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Tesla — Elon Musk's electric vehicle company gained 2.3% in premarket trading. JD.com — The Chinese e-commerce company's U.S.-listed shares lost 1.4% Friday during premarket trading. PacWest — Shares gained 2.4% in the premarket after tumbling 22.7% in the previous session on deposit outflows. First Solar — Shares of the clean energy company climbed 5% in premarket trading after First Solar announced an acquisition of Evolar AB for up to $80 million.

Solar panel manufacturer First Solar emerged as this week's biggest gainer, with shares surging 26.3% as of Friday morning. Approximately 41% of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to FactSet. To be sure, the stock is already 2.6% above analysts' consensus price target. More than half of analysts covering Albemarle rate it a buy, according to FactSet data. The stock is up approximately 15% in 2023, and analysts estimate additional 6% growth, based on the average price target.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: PTN, BYND, GOOGL, PACW and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The entertainment giant also reported revenue and earnings in line with Wall Street's estimates, according to Refinitiv. AppLovin — Shares popped 23.53% following the company's first-quarter revenue beat. Unity Software's revenue of $500 million beat the $480 million expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Tapestry — Shares of the Coach parent jumped 8.27% after the company reported stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue for its latest quarter. Its first-quarter revenue came in at $441 million, versus analyst estimates of $425 million, according to Refinitiv.

☆ Gold retreats as dollar gains upper hand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Spot gold was last down 0.75% to $2,014.3021 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8% to $2,020.50. Gold popped up after data showed a jump in weekly jobless claims and the smallest annual increase in producer prices last month in over two years. However, the metal soon gave up those gains as the dollar rose, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. While this weighs on sentiment for gold "to a certain extent, the precious metal remains in its uptrend channel established in November," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals dealer at Heraeus. Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, but elevated interest rates dim appeal for zero-yield bullion.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: PacWest, Disney, Robinhood and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

PacWest — Shares plunged 20% after the regional bank stock said deposits fell 9.5% for the week ended May 5. Other regional banks stocks moved lower on the news, with Western Alliance and First Horizon down 7.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The company also reported revenue and profit that was roughly in line with Wall Street's expectations. AppLovin — Shares soared more than 16% in premarket trading following the company's first-quarter revenue and-second quarter guidance beat after the bell Wednesday. Analysts had anticipated a loss of $1.01 per share on revenue of $90.8 million, according to Refinitiv.

"Markets reacted positively because they saw the inflation data as a small positive," said Michael Harris, president at hedge fund Quest Partners LLC. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) went up 1.22% and the communication services (.SPLRCL) rose 1.69%. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIndexes were choppy during the session, as investors digested the positive inflation print with concerns about the looming debt ceiling. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.32-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.40-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 152 new lows.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. The lower-than-expected inflation data drove the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) up as much as 1.17% to its highest intraday level in more than eight months. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) rose 0.82%, while communication services (.SPLRCL) was up 1.21%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.17-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 135 new lows.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. "You still have a reasonably strong economy and rates that are not going any higher." ET, Dow e-minis were up 181 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33.75 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 116.25 points, or 0.88%. Shares of regional banks rose after a few volatile sessions last week on concerns about the health of the sector. Oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) fell 0.9% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' estimates.

Large-cap technology stocks, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), dipped about 0.4% each in premarket trading. ET, Dow e-minis were down 62 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 7.25 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 25.25 points, or 0.19%. PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) fell 2.5%, while Zions Bancorporation (ZION.O) and Western Alliance Bank (WAL.N) inched up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) fell 1.5% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' estimates. Airbnb Inc (ABNB.O) lost 13.5% as the vacation rental booking company saw fewer bookings and lower average daily rates in the second quarter.

☆ CPI Report Today: Dow Futures Edge Down Ahead of Inflation Data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures edged lower ahead of inflation data that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates or pauses next month. ET, are expected to show annual consumer-price inflation stuck at 5% in April, while core inflation slowed slightly to 5.4% from 5.6%. S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.2% or more. Regional bank stocks slipped. Brent-crude futures fell 1.6% to $76.21 a barrel.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s CPI reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors are hoping April's CPI reading will show dipping prices. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s consumer price index
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets had a quiet Tuesday as investors braced for key inflation reports coming out later today and Thursday. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

Investors will look for clues on whether inflation is continuing to ease following the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped and pressured the benchmark S&P 500 after the company cut its margin forecast. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Under Armour Inc (UAA.N) fell 5.66% as the sports apparel maker forecast its annual sales and profit below street expectations. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 171 new lows.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

Yields on U.S. short-dated Treasury bills , jumped sharply as investors sold off bonds, which mature as early as June. That weighed on shares of high-growth companies, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which fell about 0.5% each. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 15.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.25 points, or 0.55%. Chip-gear maker Skyworks Solutions Inc's (SWKS.O) shares tumbled 11.7% after forecasting current-quarter revenue and earnings below estimates. Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and Qorvo (QRVO.O) fell 0.9% and 2.3%, respectively.

☆ PacWest leads losses in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) looked set to lead declines in U.S. regional lenders at market open on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) hit a 30-month low last week after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to explore strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the sell-off in regional banks, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Western Alliance (WAL.N) dropped 1.5%, while First Horizon Corp (FHN.N) and Zion Bancorp (ZION.O) dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, with Arfstrom noting that the pullback in banks shares overall have made their valuations attractive. Wall Street executives and bank analysts last week called on regulators to quickly provide more protection for bank deposits and consider other backstops, arguing only an intervention could stop the crisis.

☆ PacWest, Western Alliance lead slide in regional bank stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 9 (Reuters) - Shares of regional lenders PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N) resumed their slide in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors feared the ongoing banking crisis could deepen. PacWest dropped 13.6%, a day after the Los Angeles-based lender's decision to cut its quarterly dividend failed to stem worries about its financial stability. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) had last week touched 30-month lows after the collapse of First Republic Bank and PacWest's decision to exploring strategic options. PacWest and Western Alliance, which have been at the heart of the banking selloff, saw the steepest decline in deposits in the first quarter after First Republic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: A deceptive calmness
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Indeed, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell by 2%. April's consumer price index report, expected Wednesday, and the producer price index on Thursday will either reinforce or dispel some of those fears. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: In the eye of the storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Indeed, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell by 2%. We might just be in the eye of a storm. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Morning Bid: US uncertainty feeds caution in Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Asia markets correspondent Kevin Buckland. European investors hoping to find some clues on market direction from Asia may be disappointed today. Overall, the market mood was cautious ahead of the week's trading highlight, Wednesday's U.S. CPI report, which will put to the test the market's view that the Fed is done hiking. Reuters GraphicsAnd there are several other reasons that investor attention is squarely on the U.S., with the debt ceiling tussle deadlocked and banking sector troubles simmering. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey ('SLOOS') also buoyed the mood, showing tighter lending conditions but no impending credit crunch.

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

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