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The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. "We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters," Gosalia wrote. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
The Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF (VB) is down 10% over the past three months, and the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has plunged 40%. VB 3M mountain Passive small-cap funds like VB have been hurt by the regional banking crisis. "Of the 130+ passively managed small-cap ETFs, the average Financials sector exposure is 16%. Small-cap funds is one category where active funds should have plenty of room to grow, Sohn said. Research shows that very few active managers can consistently beat index funds, and the index funds are almost always cheaper for investors by expense ratio.
Bank stocks could be due for a rally, if history repeats itself. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which is focused on regional banks, climbed 6.3% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , a fund that tracks financial stocks more broadly, advanced 2.5%. The KRE was down more than 1% on Monday as regional bank stocks were once again under pressure. Notably, closely watched PacWest was able to avoid the regional bank downturn, adding 10% on Monday after surging almost 82% Friday.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors liked April's jobs growth
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Broader markets were boosted by April's jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969. Recall January's jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Investors like jobs growth
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Broader markets were boosted by April's jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969. Recall January's jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
PacWest Bankcorp led a relief rally in regional banks again on Monday, after the struggling lender slashed dividend to build capital amid the banking crisis. PacWest CEO Paul Taylor reassured investors that the bank's businesses remains "fundamentally sound." Other regional banks also rebounded for a second day. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose by 2.8% in premarket, following a 6.3% rally Friday. Western Alliance jumped 8% in premarket Monday after gaining 49% in the previous session, and Zions Bancorp rose 4% Monday.
The stock market could become "untouchable" if the regional banking crisis continues to spiral out of control. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate, and wide economic implications," Lee said. Lee's cause for concern about the banking crisis and the chilling effect it could have on the stock market is based on the type of risks that could percolate if the instability continues. "This raises too many tail risk issues including credit tightening, commercial real estate and wide economic implications," Lee explained. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF surged more than 6% on Friday, suggesting that the regional banking crisis could ultimately be contained without spilling over into a bigger problem for the stock market.
CNBC Daily Open: Trading on fear, not fundamentals
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regional bank stocks continued tumbling Thursday; shares of PacWest and Western Alliance were halted more than once. At one point on Thursday, every stock in the KRE traded lower as investors sold off regional banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
CNBC Daily Open: Fear, not fundamentals
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regional bank stocks continued tumbling Thursday; shares of PacWest and Western Alliance were halted more than once. At one point on Thursday, every stock in the KRE traded lower as investors sold off regional banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
JPMorgan made a bold call on Friday, upgrading three regional banks despite a renewed rout in the sector this week that the investment bank says is partly due to short sellers. "To this end, we believe a sell-off in regional banks has become a catalyst itself to cause further fear and selling pressure." The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , down 15% through Thursday this week, was up 4% in premarket trading Friday. The banks that JPMorgan upgraded have been hit even harder than the broader sector. The regional bank stocks have fallen despite the fact that the companies reported lower deposit outflows than First Republic.
Why the inflows? A 'two-sided equation' for bank ETFs
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
"It's a two-sided equation here," Reggie Browne, principal of GTS, told Bob Pisani on CNBC's 'ETF Edge' on Monday. "If you look at the entire suite of regional bank ETFs, they're picking up assets." While regional bank ETFs continue to tumble, the funds still netted more than $105 million in inflows within the past month, according to FactSet. Flows were largely into the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , which pulled in $108 million during the same period. The dividend yield on the KRE stands at 3.84%, while the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) offers 3.59%.
The full moon, otherwise known as a strawberry supermoon, is seen over the Skyline of the CBD in Sydney, Australia June 15, 2022. Asia-Pacific markets fell as banking fears were reignited on Wall Street, sending the three major U.S. indexes into a four day losing streak. Regional bank shares sold off, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropping more than 5% and some banks seeing volatile trading. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 19,904, pointing to a lower open compared to its last close of 19,948.73. China's Caixin services purchasing managers index for April will be published later today, a day after the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory.
For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.
May 3 (Reuters) - PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) is exploring strategic options including a sale or capital raising, a source familiar with the matter said, sending the shares of the bank and several other U.S. regional lenders tumbling in after-market trading. The Phoenix-based regional lender said it was "reaffirming its financial strength as well as its deposit growth guidance in response to recent industry events." PacWest stock has lost almost 90% of its value since the regional banking crisis started on March 8. Zion Bancorp (ZION.O), First Horizon (FHN.N) and Comerica (CMA.N) each slumped more than 7% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.P) dropped 5%. The cost of insuring against further losses in regional U.S. bank stocks stood on Wednesday near a one-month high in options markets.
As each domino falls, the next weakest bank begins to wobble," billionaire investor Bill Ackman wrote in a tweet. PacWest stock has lost almost 90% of its value since the regional banking crisis started on March 8. Zion Bancorporation (ZION.O), Comerica (CMA.N) and First Horizon (FHN.N) each slumped more than 7% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.P) dropped 5%. The cost of insuring against further losses in regional U.S. bank stocks stood on Wednesday near a one-month high in options markets. On Wednesday a source said the lender was looking at options that include a potential sale or capital raise.
Cathie Wood thinks a credit crunch is underway, and it's going to get much worse from here. The Ark Invest chief told TD Wealth on Wednesday that customer deposits are still leaving regional banks and going into Treasury funds, limiting the ability for banks to potentially produce loans in the future. So, "we have a feeling that we've started in the early stages of a credit crunch that is going to be much more serious than I think most are expecting." Wood cited the downward trajectory of the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF ( KRE ) as a basis to forecast a continued deposit outflows from regional banks. On Thursday, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said tighter credit conditions would similarly weaken further bank lending.
PacWest (PACW.O) slumped 37% in premarket trade, after having lost 29% since Monday. Reuters had reported on Wednesday that PacWest was exploring strategic options including a potential sale or capital raising, which the lender confirmed late in the day. Zion Bancorporation (ZION.O), KeyCorp (KEY.N), Valley National Bancorp (VLY.O), Comerica (CMA.N) and First Horizon (FHN.N) dropped between 2% and 6%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.P) shed 2.8%. PacWest Bancorp reported a loss of $1.1 billion attributed to shareholders for the first quarter of the year.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's year-to-date move into the red on Thursday may signal more choppy, range-bound trading ahead, technical analysts say they don't think it's an omen for new multi-year lows. Chart experts say the closely followed blue-chip Dow Jones average could test long-term moving averages. .DJI YTD mountain The Dow Failing to hold above its 200-day moving average of 32,707 could mean more downside ahead for the 30-stock average, said JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM. "On average the stocks have an aggregated [earnings] surprise of nearly +10%, but the stocks are not being rewarded," O'Hara said of earnings season for Dow stocks thus far. Now, the Dow is the only one of the three in the red on the year as investors favor growth stocks over value.
Ackman didn't provide specifics on how he thinks a deposit guarantee program would work, but he said one is essential to restore investor confidence in regional banks. That has put pressure on midsize banks, and the S & P Regional Bank ETF has fallen 40% year to date. Short sellers have ganged up on some regional banks on the prospect that even those that are rescued or merged will see stock holders wiped out. "Renewed stress among regional bank stocks after market close may cause [Washington, D.C.] to reconsider priorities," Mayo said in a client note. "Unfortunately, there is a significant disconnect between the renewed pressure on regional banks and DC's posture," Mills said in a note.
May 4 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional banks fell premarket on Thursday, hurt by a 37% slump in PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) after its announcement about exploring strategic options spurred market concerns of a worsening banking crisis. Zion Bancorporation (ZION.O), KeyCorp (KEY.N), Valley National Bancorp (VLY.O), Comerica (CMA.N) and First Horizon (FHN.N) dropped between 2% and 6%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.P) shed 2.8%. The slide in shares of PacWest and its peers highlights uncertainty around the health of regional banks despite regulatory efforts to call an end to the banking crisis that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. PacWest Bancorp reported a loss of $1.1 billion attributed to shareholders for the first quarter of the year.
The selloff in regional banks may have created a buying opportunity for certain investors in some of the safer, large-cap names, UBS said in a note Thursday. PacWest is the latest regional bank to lead the sector lower following the news late Wednesday that it is weighing its options , including a possible sale. The rout began in March with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent deposit outflows in regional banks. However, regional banks were under pressure again Thursday. The SPDR S & P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropped more than 8%.
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring against further losses in regional U.S. bank stocks stood near a one-month high in options markets on Wednesday, even as shares of lenders saw a reprieve from their recent sell-off. Skew on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - a gauge of relative demand for puts versus calls - remained elevated, hovering near the highest level since the COVID-19 market slump, data from OptionMetrics showed. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF rose about 1.9% to 39.64 in afternoon trade, though it is down 33% on the year and fell on Monday and Tuesday. "The fact that you didn't see the follow-through from some of these other regional banks, with what would appear to be such great news, really didn't inspire a lot of confidence in some of these regional banks," said Seth Hickle, a derivatives portfolio manager at Innovative Portfolios, referring to JPMorgan’s rescue of First Republic. "The problem with regionals are going to be rising interest rates,” said Matt Amberson, principal at options analytics firm ORATS.
If the Fed opts to pause, Treasury yields are expected to decline. Stocks that could gain on falling interest rates Here are the top stocks that are poised to move higher if the Fed signals it will pause rate increases. The gold miner benefits from a rise in gold prices, and in general, gold tends to rise when interest rates fall. Meanwhile, genetics company Illumina should gain if interest rates fall, according to its correlation to the SHY ETF. Stocks poised to gain on rate increases However, if the Fed suggests rate hikes will continue, short-term Treasury yields will likely go up, benefiting these stocks.
Regional bank stocks have fallen sharply this week after the failure and sale of First Republic, with the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) tumbling 8.9% in just two days, on Monday and Tuesday. KRE 5D mountain Regional bank stocks have fallen after First Republic's failure. But even if the immediate concerns have been put to rest, now the falling bank stocks could create a new round of issues, according to Evercore ISI. ... regional banks' troubles are earnings issues for most, rather than liquidity issues," Pancari said. He added that "select regionals appear oversold," highlighting Fifth Third Bancorp as one of Evercore ISI's favorite mid-sized banks.
US stocks fell about 1% on Tuesday as investors prepare for another interest rate hike despite an ongoing banking crisis. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its Wednesday FOMC meeting. Regional bank stocks were crushed on Tuesday just one day after JPMorgan acquired First Republic Bank. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Investors also have their eyes on corporate earnings, with Apple set to report quarterly results after the market close on Thursday.
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