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☆ Australia wages see record rise in Q3, unlikely to be repeated
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Australian wages posted the largest increase on record last quarter as a sharp rise in minimum wages benefited millions of workers, while intense competition among employers pushed up many individual pay deals. Annual pay growth picked up to 4.0%, from 3.6%, the fastest since early 2009 and just above market expectations of 3.9%. "Q3 was a perfect storm for wage pressures," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. Much of the spike was due to a mandated 5.75% rise in the minimum wage which covers more than two million workers. Wage growth in the public sector accelerated to a 12-year high of 3.5%, while the private sector saw growth of 4.2% as firms fought to recruit and retain workers.

Persons: Loren Elliott, Sean Langcake, Wayne Cole, Tom Hogue, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Analysts, Oxford Economics Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Europe’s shrinking stash heralds economic trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But the interest they earned on their assets increased from 16 billion euros to 66 billion euros in the same period. As a result, euro zone firms’ net interest was negative 19 billion euros in the second quarter of 2023. These financial gains may have helped euro zone growth. A further 700 billion euros matures in 2026. Homeowners with mortgages, which account for around 27% of euro zone households, are yet to feel the brunt of higher rates.

Persons: That’s, Mathieu Savary, Gross, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, BCA Research, Oxford Economics, International Monetary Fund, Oxford, IMF, Thomson Locations: Oxford, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United States, China

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Disney on Tuesday released a study showing its economic impact in Florida at $40.3 billion as it battles Florida Gov. Disney accounted for 263,000 jobs in Florida, more than three times the actual workforce at Walt Disney World, according to the study conducted by Oxford Economics and commissioned by Disney, covering fiscal year 2022. The jobs include Disney employees as well as jobs supported by visitor spending off Disney World property. In central Florida, Disney directly accounts for 1 in 8 jobs, and for every direct job at Disney World, another 1.7 jobs are supported across Florida, Oxford Economics said. Before control of the district changed hands from Disney allies to DeSantis appointees, the Disney supporters on its board signed agreements with Disney shifting control over design and construction at Disney World to the company.

Persons: Disney, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, “, Mike Schneider Organizations: Florida Gov, Disney, Walt Disney, Oxford Economics, Sunshine State, Central, Florida Legislature Locations: ORLANDO, Fla, Florida, Disney, Oxford, DeSantis, Southern California, Orlando , Florida, Central Florida, Orlando, Tallahassee

☆ This is the world's next major election. The winner has to fix chronic hyperinflation and halt a 6th recession in 10 years.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementArgentina is getting ready to choose its next president — and the country's economy is a mess. Triple-digit inflationSoaring prices are perhaps the best-known problem plaguing Argentina's economy, but far from the only issue that policymakers are battling. The currency is managed by Argentina's central bank. If, or more likely when, Argentina's economy slips into another recession, it'll be the sixth such occurrence in the past decade. His proposed policies include abolishing Argentina's central bank altogether and adopting the dollar, which economists have warned could end up pushing the country even closer to a default.

Persons: —, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Manuel Cortina, Lucila Bonilla, Bonilla, they've, Kimberley Sperrfechter, There's, there's, Massa, Cristina Sille, Donald Trump, Bolsonaro, they'll, Sperrfechter Organizations: Service, Union, Homeland, Triple, Consumer, National Institute of Statistics, Argentinian, Oxford Economics, The Central Bank of, International Monetary Fund, Reuters, World Bank, FX, Central Bank of, Peronist Locations: Argentina, American, Buenos Aires, Central Bank of Argentina

☆ New US jobless claims edge down; continued claims on the rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Some economists contend the rise in continuing claims reflects difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. That would be consistent with the latest hiring data showing the job market is cooling. A separate report showed that there were 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person in September, down from around 2-to-1 when the job market was the most tight last year. The claims data adds to the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for now, economists said. Vanden Houten, however, said she expects job market conditions to soften slowly, and now expects the first Fed rate cut to happen in September rather than May as she had previously forecast.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dan Burns, Paul Simao, Franklin Paul Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor Department, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Fed, CME Group's, Franklin Paul Our, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, Vanden Houten

And now Ben Hammou faces another blow as the German government moves to end pandemic-era tax breaks for the hospitality industry. The fiscally hawkish FDP party, which has control of the finance ministry in the three-way ruling coalition, backs letting the tax break expire, calculating that it would cost 3.3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) to keep it going in 2024. Many restaurants operate on tight margins, which makes them quite sensitive to tax increases. In Spain, Italy and France, the VAT on restaurants is at 10%, considerably lower than the expected 19% in Germany from 2024. The question is whether German restaurants are still struggling or have recovered well enough from the pandemic to withstand having the tax break removed, according to Tomas Dvorak, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

Persons: Omar Ben Hammou, Ben Hammou, Christian Lindner, Guido Zoellick, Thijs Geijer, Ingrid Hartges, DEHOGA, Steffen Marx, Tomas Dvorak, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Tanja Daube, Ulrike Heil, Belen Carreno, Giselda Vagnoni, Thomas Leigh, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Restaurant Association, ING, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Bavaria, BERLIN, Berlin, Russia, Ukraine, COVID, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Munich, Madrid, Rome, Paris

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) figures show that speculators, especially leveraged funds, ramped up their short Treasuries positions in the week ending Oct. 31, most notably at the short end of the curve. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts, boosted by fresh record short positions in the two- and five-year space. In October leveraged funds increased their net short position in two-year futures by 242,000 contracts to 1.6 million contracts, and by 193,000 contracts in five-year futures to 1.93 million. They only grew their net short position in 10-year futures by 10,000 contracts, however. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Javier Corominas, Treasuries, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Miral Fahmy, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Regulators, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Treasury, Citi's, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Citi's U.S

☆ The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month. Here’s what that means
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —For several months now, the US labor market has been on a cooling trajectory, and Friday’s jobs report made that even more apparent. The US economy added 150,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations but still notching a solid month of employment growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. October’s job growth came in below September’s stronger-than expected but downwardly revised total of 297,000 jobs. Including the estimated 150,000 jobs added last month and the downward revisions to August and September that totaled 101,000 jobs, the United States is averaging 239,000 jobs gained per month so far this year. Where the jobs were — and weren’tBecause of the timing of the striking actions and how the BLS tracks such activity, October is the first jobs report that reflects the massive strike.

Persons: ”, Sung Won Sohn, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell, Gus Faucher, Dante DeAntonio, ” DeAntonio, “ It’s, ” Ger Doyle, ManpowerGroup, Amy Glaser, we’ve, “ We’re Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, of Labor Statistics, SS Economics, Loyola Marymount University, United Auto Workers, Ford, General Motors, UAW, Big, Federal Reserve, Fed, Oxford Economics, BLS, PNC Financial Services, Government, Moody’s, ”, CNN, “ Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Southern California

The government’s October jobs report is expected to show Friday that companies and government agencies added 184,000 jobs, a solid showing, though down sharply from a blockbuster 336,000 gain in September. The Fed scrutinizes the monthly job data to assess whether employers are still hiring and raising pay aggressively as a result of labor shortages. The Fed's policymakers are trying to calibrate their key interest rate to simultaneously cool inflation, support job growth and ward off a recession. At the same time, inflationary pressures have been easing as the Fed has sharply raised borrowing costs. In the meantime, despite long-standing predictions by economists that the Fed's ever-higher interest rates would trigger a recession, the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, remains sturdy.

Persons: ’ ’, Nancy Vanden Houten, ’ Vanden Houten, Vanden Houten, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, —, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Federal, United Auto Workers, Detroit, Wage, Labor Department Locations: U.S, COVID

☆ Saudi Arabia’s oil production cuts have tipped its economy into reverse
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Aimee Look | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Abu Dhabi CNN —Saudi Arabia’s economy has jolted into reverse, after the world’s largest crude oil exporter slashed output to prop up prices. Saudi oil production to nine million barrels per day in July as the biggest player in the OPEC+ alliance joined forces with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening demand because of a slowing global economy. “We expect [oil] production to remain low until the end of this year, with a slow unwind in early 2024,” Oxford Economics analysts wrote in a note published Friday. Saudi Arabia’s oil cuts were aimed at stabilizing global oil markets, according to Raif Weigert, Economics Director for the Middle East and North Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence. While other Gulf states have also come under economic pressure from cuts to oil production, the United Arab Emirates economy has continued to grow.

Persons: Raif, Weigert, “ Organizations: Abu Dhabi CNN — Saudi, Oxford, Monetary Fund, P Global Market Intelligence, “, Saudi, United Arab Locations: Abu Dhabi, Saudi, OPEC, Russia, East, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, UAE

The report is also expected to find that gains in average hourly earnings were solid but decelerated to 4 percent from a year earlier. The September report showed an unexpectedly strong gain of 336,000 jobs — a figure that will be revised Friday — and a year-over-year wage gain of 4.2 percent. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. “We expect the October employment report to show a large deceleration in job growth, although the moderation will be overstated by the impact of striking autoworkers,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. “Excluding those workers,” she added, “job growth will still be relatively robust, although narrowly based.”Since early 2022, the benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has surged from near zero to more than 5 percent.

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ Find me a zebra and you can have the job: What it's like to work for top YouTube stars, according to 17 current and former staffers of creators like MrBeast and Kai Cenat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Marta Biino | Amanda Perelli | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Cenat, who is a top Twitch streamer and YouTube creator with millions of subscribers across multiple platforms, was looking for an assistant. Cenat responded to her message, writing that she could have the job if she could get one task done. There's even a job board dedicated to finding work with a YouTube creator: YT Jobs . The staffers ranged from full-time employees to contractors, and they described days filled with unimaginable stunts, inconsistent work hours, varying salaries, and frequent pivoting. "It's like the old adage of, 'If you love what you do, you never work a day in your life.'"

Persons: Brianna Lewis yearned, Kai Cenat's, Cenat, Lewis, She's, Jimmy Donaldson, Preston Arsement, YT, Britt Carter, Kai Cenat, Brianna Lewis, Carter, Drake, Peter Sanjur, Sanjur, Zi Yuan, Yuan, Jason Russak, YouTuber Jesse Riedel, Russak Organizations: Instagram DMs, YouTube, Research, Oxford Economics Locations: Georgia, Charlotte , North Carolina, Atlanta , Georgia, Greenville , North Carolina, Smoky, Japan, Tokyo

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The inflation that has been wearing on European consumers fell sharply to 2.9% in October, its lowest in more than two years as fuel prices fell and rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank took hold. Inflation fell from an annual 4.3% in September as fuel prices fell by 11.1% and painful food inflation slowed, to 7.5%. The lower inflation figure follows a rapid series of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The future path of inflation toward the ECB's target remain uncertain because core inflation, excluding volatile fuel and food prices, remains higher than the headline figure, at 4.2%. The current burst of inflation was set off as the global economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to shortages of parts and raw materials.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds Organizations: European Central Bank, European, Oxford Economics, European Central Bank . Higher, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, France, Europe, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, U.S

Taken as a whole, the figures the government issued Friday show a still-surprisingly resilient consumer, willing to spend briskly enough to power the economy even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates. Income growth slowed. Adjusted for inflation, income actually fell slightly. In Friday’s report on inflation, the government also said that consumer spending last month jumped a robust 0.7%. A solid job market has helped fuel consumer spending, with wages and salaries having outpaced inflation for most of this year.

Persons: ”, Michael Pearce, Friday's, Jerome Powell, — Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Oxford Economics, Fed

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ After a summer of Barbenheimer and Beyoncé, can US consumers still afford the holiday season?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —Ballpark attendance boomed this summer, Barbenheimer revived the box office and a Renaissance of live performances brought concerts into new Eras. However, it also could mean that holiday spending just might look a little different and skewed more toward experiences than it has done in past years. Respondents to KPMG’s 2023 holiday survey said they plan to spend 5% more this season, said Matt Kramer, KPMG’s consumer and retail national sector leader. “What stands out the most is this ‘leaning in’ to holiday travel and wanting to have those experiences with friends and family,” he said. A more comprehensive look at consumer spending will come at the tail end of the month when the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is released.

Persons: Barbenheimer, Everybody, ”, Keith Gentili, ” Taylor Swift, Allen J, “, Ted Rossman, that’s, ’ ”, aren’t, Matt Kramer, Tamara Charm, Elijah Nouvelage, Patrick T, Fallon, Gus Faucher, Nathan Howard, Nancy Vanden Houten, ’, ” Rossman, Matt Schulz Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, New Hampshire, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Bankrate, McKinsey, Travelers, Hartsfield, Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Bloomberg, Commerce, Apple, PNC Financial Services, Shoppers, canaries, LendingTree Locations: Minneapolis, New, Inglewood , California, splurge, ’, Los Angeles, AFP, Georgetown, Washington, what’s, Oxford

☆ BoC likely done raising rates, to cut by mid-2024 say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The risk of a revival in inflation, last measured at 3.8%, has led most to forecast now is not the time for the central bank to strongly signal they are done raising rates. Twenty-nine of 32 economists polled Oct. 13-20 expect no change to the central bank's 5.00% overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25 basis point hike. While most are confident the central bank is done hiking, a significant minority of economists who answered an additional question, 8 of 18, said the risk of the BoC raising rates at least once more is "high". Still, a two-thirds majority, 20 of 30, see the BoC cutting its overnight rate at least once before end-June 2024. The distribution of where economists saw the overnight rate by end-June was split many ways.

Persons: Randall Bartlett, underscoring, Tony Stillo, Milounee Purohit, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Desjardins, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Canada

Investors arrive to the election looking at an economy in recession as a crippling drought hit the key agricultural sector. The gap to the official rate is above 150%. On the line is the survival of the country's $43 billion program with the International Monetary Fund and the possibility that Argentina defaults on its debt for a 10th time. "Dollarization would not cure the main issue in Argentina, which is a really large fiscal problem." "Debt does not need to be an immediate priority," said Khan, who doesn't expect dollarization to top the near-term list either.

Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Martin Cossarini, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Alejandro di Bernardo, Bernardo, Milei, Massa, Gabriel Rubinstein, Elijah Oliveros, Rosen, Zulfi Ali, Shamaila Khan, Khan, Hans Humes, Humes, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Susan Fenton Organizations: el Cambio, REUTERS, NEW, International Monetary Fund, Jupiter Asset, Bullrich, WE, JPMorgan, China, Institute of International Finance, IMF, America, PGIM, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Massa, Greylock Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Washington

Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in eight months last week as businesses continue to retain workers despite elevated interest rates meant to cool the economy and labor market. Jobless claim applications fell by 13,000 to 198,000 for the week ending Oct. 14, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Despite the low level of weekly first-time jobless benefit applications, the number of Americans remaining on the unemployment rolls — known as “continuing claims” — jumped to its highest level in three months. In August, about 736,000 people re-entered the search for employment, boosting the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.8%, where it remains today. In August, American employers posted a surprising 9.6 million job openings, up from 8.9 million in July and the first uptick in three months.

Persons: ” —, ‘, ”, Nancy Vanden Houten Organizations: Labor Department, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

ON TRACK FOR GOVT GDP TARGETThe recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved. The key issue is what growth target the government will set and how much fiscal easing will take place." The statistics bureau said China would be able to hit the 2023 growth target if the fourth quarter growth tops 4.4%. Moody's Analytics has also raised its 2023 growth projection to 5% from 4.9%. The faltering property sector has hit some of the biggest developers in the country.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Zhiwei Zhang, Tingshu Wang, Frederic Neumann, Louise Loo, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Index, New, REUTERS, Nomura, JPMorgan, Analysts, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Global Research, HSBC, Oxford Economics, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Brisbane, U.S, Beijing, China, New Zealand, Asia

☆ Global Business Outlook Dims After Start of Israel-Hamas War, Survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Businesses' expectations for global growth for the year ahead have worsened since war started between Israel and Hamas, according to preliminary results of a survey. One in three respondents to Oxford Economics' global risk survey described events in the Middle East as a very significant near-term risk to the world economy, the consultancy said in a report Wednesday. Expectations for growth in the global economy declined since the previous survey in September. The results were based on an initial wave of 77 responses. Full results are due in November.

Organizations: Oxford Economics Locations: Israel

☆ One sector in China is beating the slowdown — 3 stocks to play it including one with 80% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After Beijing cracked down on real estate developers' high debt levels, banks and other financial institutions drastically pulled back on lending to those companies. Meanwhile, China's latest development plans have emphasized advanced manufacturing — production of goods of higher value than apparel and other lower-cost goods Chinese factories have been known for. But analysts increasingly realize that the high-growth days of real estate are over, weighing further o n the economy in the near term. Oxford Economics expects the economy to slow to a 4.4% pace in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, dragged down by real estate. China is set to release third-quarter GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment on Wed., Oct. 18.

Persons: That's, hasn't, Banks, Gill, Kharas, Louise Loo, Loo, Brian Tycangco Organizations: People's Bank of China, Oxford, Stansberry Research, HSBC, World, Network Locations: China, Beijing, Oxford, Friday's

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