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The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Goldman Sachs has cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession to 20% shortly after raising it, as fresh labor market data sparked a reassessment of market views on the economy. Economists at Goldman earlier this month raised their 12-month U.S. recession probability from 15% to 25% after the U.S. July jobs report of Aug. 2 showed nonfarm payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 114,000. That was down from the downwardly revised 179,000 of June and below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The report triggered widespread concerns about the world's largest economy, and contributed to the sharp — but ultimately brief — stock market sell-off at the start of the month. Goldman initially cited this as a reason for hiking the probability of an economic downturn — but changed tack on Saturday, when it wrote in a note that it saw the odds down to 20% because data released since Aug. 2 showed "no sign of a recession."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, U.S Locations: U.S
The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and an increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey's history. On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points. Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having "moderated."
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Workers Locations: U.S, nonfarm
We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve
Don't get too excited about this latest inflation report
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Stocks had a strong showing Tuesday after the latest U.S. wholesale inflation report came out. In other words, just because PPI rose less than expected, it doesn't mean investors should expect a tame CPI report on Wednesday. "Financial markets seem to react too much every month to PPI," said Stanley, the bank's chief economist. " The S & P 500 closed Tuesday's session nearly 2% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The major averages are now well above the lows seen in Aug. 5, when the Dow and S & P 500 suffered their biggest one-day pullbacks since 2022.
Persons: Stocks, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Dow, David Russell, We're Organizations: ISI, PPI, Santander U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
"Our biggest concern is that the market sell-off becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy causing corporate CEOs to cut back on investments and consumers to pull back on spending leading to further cuts and a recession," the analysts added. "In our view, the direct impact of these steep market declines is limited," they said in a note published Monday. Sustained market declines in the wake of the recent global sell-off could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" that eventually leads to a recession, Morningstar DBRS analysts warned. The analysts also said that the impact of the market volatility on banks is likely to be limited, even if further market declines materialize, or if the U.S. enters a recession. There was also "no material impact" expected for capital management by banks in Japan, a region that also saw steep declines.
Persons: Morningstar, Nonfarm payrolls Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Global, Japan's Nikkei, Tech, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Congressional, U.S, Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Japan
The S & P 500 is off by nearly 9%, and it could soon join the tech-heavy index. .VIX 1D mountain VIX On Wall Street, however, many investors expect the fears of a slowing economy are overdone, and that markets are overreacting. "We don't see an earnings recession, we don't see an economic recession," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The strategist expects the S & P 500 could fall into a correction, somewhere between 10% and 15%. To be sure, investors who aren't expecting a recession say any weakness in the consumer should continue to be monitored.
Persons: It's, Stocks, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, nonfarm, John Butters, , Sam Stovall, Stovall, that's, aren't, Siebert's Malek, Jamie Meyers, he's, we've, it's, I've, Meyers, CFRA's Stovall Organizations: Nikkei, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, Bank of America, CFRA, Nvidia Locations: Japan, U.S
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points. U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week. The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut.
Persons: Treasurys, July's nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, PMI
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 when the global economy was still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.
Persons: Dow Jones, , payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan
The stock market crashed Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 6%. AdvertisementUS stocks crashed on Monday, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 6% as the global market rout that kicked off late last week accelerated. AdvertisementThe losses accelerated on Monday after Japan's stock market experienced its worst decline since the Black Monday crash in 1987, falling 12%. Berkshire Hathaway now holds a record $277 billion in cash, leading to some investors worrying that Buffett has soured on the stock market. The bigger question is whether this bloodletting will prove sufficient to provide a basis for a resumption of the stock market rally, and ultimately fresh record highs.
Persons: , nonfarm payrolls, Jamie Cox, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, bitcoin, David Morrison Organizations: Nasdaq, Berkshire Hathaway's Apple, Service, Dow Jones, Amazon, Intel, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Berkshire Hathaway's, Berkshire, FCA Locations: Berkshire
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jobs shock hits stocksU.S. stocks plummeted on Friday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report added to fears of a recession. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. Asian stocks plungeAsian stocks continued to sell-off on Monday, with the Japanese market confirming a bear market. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Topix, Taiwan's Taiex, Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Nikkei, CSI, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, China, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks for August
  + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Some stocks have been added and others on this month's list. EQT Corp. has been added, while Arista Networks and Coherent Corp. – two names on last month's list – have been removed. Here are some of JPMorgan's top picks for August: EQT was named as part of the bank's value strategy. Of consumer stocks, McDonald's is also viewed as a value play, with shares of the fast-food chain down 7% this year. For growth stocks, Amazon made the cut.
Persons: EQT, McDonald's, Joe Erlinger, Brian Olsavsky, Donald Trump, Olsavsky, Eli Lilly –, Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, EQT Corp, Arista Networks, Amazon, Paris, Microsoft Locations: EQT, McDonald's U.S
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial
Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. "Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there's no summer heatwave for the job market," said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the Manpower Group employment agency. From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. The labor force also contracted by 214,000, though the participation rate as a share of the working-age population actually edged higher to 62.7%.
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Becky Frankiewicz Organizations: Labor Department, Stock, Manpower Group Locations: U.S
Boris Roessler | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks were set to open lower Friday, extending losses amid a global downturn as a busy week of market action draws to a close. Germany's DAX was on course to open 104 points lower at 17,984, according to IG data, with France's CAC 40 down 40 points at 7,325. The regional Stoxx 600 index on Thursday suffered its worst session since mid-June, pulled down by financials as French bank Societe Generale downgraded its outlook and the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The central bank decision took its key interest rate to 5% from 5.25%, in a move that markets had not been fully convinced it would carry out. Asia-Pacific markets saw steep losses Friday, with Japan's benchmark indexes tanking as much as 5%.
Persons: Boris Roessler, Germany's DAX, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Joe Tuckey Organizations: Getty, France's CAC, Societe Generale, Bank of England, CNBC, Argentex, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Apple, Intel, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Frankfurt, Bank of Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific
Jim Cramer said Friday the Fed should have cut at this week's meeting. Those were in place with AMD because Jim Cramer mentioned the stock on CNBC TV over the past 72 hours. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dow Jones, here's, Eli Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bond, chipmaker Broadcom, AMD, Palo Alto, Nvidia, Wynn Resorts, Disney, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, DuPont, Dover, Wells
The weak report all but confirms the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, an outcome that was already carrying a near-100% probability heading into the report. AdvertisementFriday's jobs report comes after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady once again. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider in July. "The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market," Powell said. There were around 3.3 million quits in June and the quits rate was 2.1%.
Persons: , payrolls, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Labor Statistics, Reserve, Stock, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Treasury yields slide ahead of July jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was down by over 4 basis points at 3.933%, remaining below the 4%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last around 5 basis points lower at 4.116%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors looked ahead to the July jobs report and digested the interest rate outlook. The U.S. Labor Department's jobs report for July is slated for Friday, and will provide investors with insights into the state of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve earlier in the week kept rates unchanged at their latest meeting but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, sending Treasury yields lower.
Persons: Dow, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Labor, Federal Locations: U.S
Tom Merton | Ojo Images | Getty ImagesJob seekers have been sour on the job market for a while now — and with good reason. "The soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger," Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a statement on Friday. "Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red," Bunker said. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. To pivot, assess 'transferrable skills'Because the labor market is weakening, it might be hard for workers to find opportunities in their preferred industries, Bustamante noted.
Persons: Tom Merton, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Nonfarm payrolls, Alí Bustamante, Julia Pollak, Pollak, NEETS, Bustamante Organizations: Economic, North, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, ZipRecruiter, Health, Finance Locations: U.S, North America, New York City
Club stocks Broadcom was down and Advanced Micro Devices was actually up. Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Apple, Hess, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Nasdaq, Amazon, Intel, Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Devices, Coterra Energy, Exxon, Club, Natural Resources, Chevron, Revenue, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: U.S, Central, Guyana, Texas, California
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