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In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
A cat snuck into a factory in Fukuyama, Japan, and fell into a toxic vat before escaping. AdvertisementOfficials in Fukuyama, Japan, put the city on alert after a cat snuck into a metal plating factory and fell into a toxic vat before then escaping. The factory, Nomura Plating, now plans to ramp up security measures to prevent animals from causing problems in the future. AdvertisementA spokesperson told AFP that it immediately alerted police, city officials, and neighboring buildings. In turn, the city's environmental division warned residents of the potential health risks, urging them to keep their distance if they spotted the toxic cat.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Nomura, Asahi Shimbun, UK Health Security Agency, Agence France, Press, Business, AFP, Agency, Toxic Substances, Japan's Nippon TV Locations: Fukuyama, Japan
Tokyo CNN —A city in Japan is on high alert for a cat that fell into a tank of hazardous chemicals before disappearing into the night. A trail of pawprints discovered by a worker on Monday led to a 3-meter-deep vat of hexavalent chromium, a cancer-causing chemical that can induce rashes and inflammation if touched or inhaled, officials said. Akihiro Kobayashi, manager of the Nomura Mekki Fukuyama factory, said a sheet covering the chemical vat was found partially torn when employees returned to work after the weekend. Hexavalent chromium, or Chromium-6, is perhaps best known as the carcinogenic chemical featured in the 2000 movie “Erin Brockovich,” starring Julia Roberts. “Workers may be harmed from exposure to hexavalent chromium,” the CDC says on its website.
Persons: Akihiro Kobayashi, Nomura Mekki Fukuyama, Kobayashi, Erin Brockovich, , Julia Roberts Organizations: Tokyo CNN, Fukuyama City, Nomura Mekki, Workers, Factory, US Centers for Disease Control, Prevention, “ Workers Locations: Japan, Fukuyama , Hiroshima prefecture, Fukuyama, California
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
Vanke’s stock soared in Hong Kong and Shenzhen following the reports of potential new financing. On Monday, Moody’s cut Vanke’s rating to Ba1, which is often referred to as a junk rating. Residential buildings being built by Vanke in Nanjing STR/AFP/Getty ImagesFounded in 1984 in Shenzhen, Vanke is a flagship company in China’s property sector. It was the first listed property company in mainland China, boasting a high-profile IPO in 1991 on the still-nascent Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In 2023, property sales dropped 6.5% from 2022.
Persons: Moody’s, China Vanke, Vanke, Kaven Tsang, Fitch, Wang Shi, Donald Trump, Refinitiv Eikon, Vanke’s, it’s, , Ni, , ” Nomura Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Economic Observer, CNN, Getty, Time, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Metro, National People’s Congress Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Evergrande, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Vanke
Hong Kong CNN —China’s consumer inflation turned positive for the first time in six months, largely supported by the Lunar New Year holiday, when a spending boom pushed up prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% in February from a year earlier, government data showed on Saturday, versus a rise of 0.3% forecast in a Reuters poll. This was the first increase in the inflation rate since August 2023. Last Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang said the government had set this year’s growth target at around 5% and inflation target at 3%. But the key to growth and rising prices will be how Beijing implements its policy to stimulate demand and boost confidence, analysts said.
Persons: , , Zhiwei Zhang, ” Nomura, Price, Li Qiang, Gongsheng, Zheng Shanjie Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Index, , People’s Bank of China, Getty, National, ” Citi Locations: China, Hong Kong, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, Beijing
China's housing minister, Ni Hong, said real-estate developers in serious trouble should be bankrupted and restructured. Analysts suggest Beijing's priority is to ensure delivery of property projects, not to save developers. AdvertisementChina's housing minister said Beijing will not be bailing out the country's distressed property developers. China's real-estate debt crisis has already taken down property giant Evergrande, which is currently undergoing liquidation. "We view the tone on the property sector set at the 'Two Sessions' as negative," they added, referring to China's parliamentary sessions.
Persons: Ni Hong, , Xi, Li Qiang's, Ni, Jizhou Dong, Riley Jin Organizations: Service, Authorities, Nomura Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese leaders have pledged to achieve an ambitious growth rate this year, while reshaping its economic model to focus on technology innovation. On Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, which he said “will not be easy” to hit, given that a Covid-battered 2022 had provided a lower base of growth for last year. “The level of support is likely too little to rocket the economy to its 5% growth target this year,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s, referring to the measures announced by Li Tuesday. “China is walking a tightrope on the fiscal front between infrastructure stimulus and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] deleveraging,” said Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday. In order to achieve the ambitious 5% growth target, more specific stimulus is needed, such as increasing manufacturing investments, Liu said.
Persons: Li Qiang, , , Sarah Tan, Li Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Li, ” Nomura, Xi Jinping, Peiqian Liu, Liu, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, AFP, Getty, Goldman, Fidelity International, People’s Bank of China, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, , Asia,
Hong Kong CNN —China registered a surprise jump in foreign trade at the start of the year, partly because of strong demand from Russia, India and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America. China’s economy is battling a number of headwinds, including weak consumer and investor confidence, high youth unemployment and a long-running real estate crisis. Apart from the weak base effect, strong demand from emerging markets helped China’s trade surge at the start of the year. Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia increased 12.5%, representing a slowdown from the rapid growth seen last year. “At the current juncture, it is likely too soon to call for a revival in China’s trade sector,” said HSBC analysts on Thursday.
Persons: , Nomura, , Lynn Song, Biden, Wang Wentao Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Exports, European Union, , HSBC, Greater China, ING, European Commission, Wall Street Locations: Hong Kong, China, Russia, India, Africa, Latin America, Moscow, United States, Japan, Australia, Greater
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe room to maneuver is quite limited, economist says ahead of the U.K. budgetThe room to maneuver is quite limited, says George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura, ahead of the U.K. budget.
Persons: George Buckley Organizations: Nomura
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina is laying out ambitious growth goals for 2024, and Beijing knows they'll be hard to hit. China — the world's second-largest economy — is targeting economic growth of around 5% this year, Li Qiang, the country's premier, announced on Tuesday. "Achieving the 'around 5%' growth target will be very challenging," Nomura economists wrote in a note on Tuesday. Economists are watching to see whether Beijing will inject more stimulus into its economy to help it hit its 5% growth target.
Persons: , they'll, Li Qiang, Li, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, Business, National People's, ING, Nomura, Deutsche, Seng China Enterprises Locations: China, Beijing, Greater China, Hong Kong
A screen displays the Nikkei 225 Stock Average figure on the trading floor at the Nomura Securities Co. headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Jan. 11, 2024. Japan's Nikkei 225 crossed the 40,000 mark on Monday, setting a new record high and leading gains in Asia as other markets also rose, tracking gains on Wall Street as both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs on Friday. Investors will also be watching China's "Two Sessions" meetings today. The "Two Sessions" refer to the concurrent annual meetings of China's legislature, the National People's Congress, and the country's top political advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. At the meetings, China premier Li Qiang is expected to deliver the government's work report, which details economic and policy goals for the world's second-largest economy, including its gross domestic product growth target.
Persons: Li Qiang Organizations: Nomura Securities Co, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, National People's Congress, Political Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China
Edwin Tong, Singapore's culture minister, told local outlet Mothership on February 28 that the amount of grant given "is not what is being speculated online." As Tong, the Singapore culture minister, told Mothership, the city-state is looking "beyond just the economic impact" of Swiftonimics. Economists estimate that Swift's concerts in Singapore could contribute up to 500 million Singapore dollars, or $372 million, in tourist receipts. AdvertisementIt's a different story for spending on experiences — and it's heightened because Singapore is Swift's only stop in Southeast Asia. Mann said the people who have money to pay for flight tickets, Swift's concert tickets, and a hotel are likely to keep spending at other tourist spots.
Persons: , Taylor Swift, Srettha, Edwin Tong, Swift, it's, Yun Liu, Tong, Kevin Cheong, David Mann, Mann, Coldplay, Si Ying Toh, Cheong, Joey Salceda, Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno Organizations: Service, Business, HSBC, Asia Pacific, Mastercard, Nomura, Philippine Star, Bloomberg, Vegas Locations: Singapore, Southeast Asia, British, Thailand, Bangkok, Indonesia, Sands
Meanwhile, its financial markets are bleeding, the property market has gone up in smoke, local government debt appears alarming, and foreign investors are exiting in droves. Real estate — which was a huge part of China's economy — has been hit badly, he said. AdvertisementTravel has picked up after years of pandemic lockdownServices is another pillar of China's economy that Beijing has been trying to build up. AdvertisementThis is in part because new growth industries are not able to take the place of real estate — yet. Because the property market accounts for one-quarter of China's GDP and more than two-thirds of household wealth, its overall drag on China's economy is much greater than whatever is doing well right now.
Persons: , Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, AllianceBernstein, John Lin, Lin, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Wood Mackenzie, AllianceBerstein's Lin, Nomura, Loo Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg TV, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Oxford Locations: China, GlobalData.TS, Real, COVID, Beijing, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura expects 'above consensus' 7.1% GDP growth in India in forth quarter of 2023Rob Subbaraman of Nomura says that India could be "on the cusp" of an investment boom which would lift the country's economic growth.
Persons: Rob Subbaraman, Nomura Organizations: Nomura Locations: India
Nomura expects 4% GDP growth in China for 2024
  + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura expects 4% GDP growth in China for 2024Rob Subbaraman of Nomura shares his expectations on China's economic growth in 2024.
Persons: Rob Subbaraman, Nomura Organizations: Nomura Locations: China
The devil's in the details, but local economies have a friend in Taylor Swift. Her tour undoubtedly helped the local economies she visited, according to a new report out from Japanese investment bank Nomura. From that, the consumer price index for the Illinois city increased 0.5 percentage points from the singer's visit alone. Internationally, small economies such as Singapore and Sweden could see the biggest macro boosts from her tour, according to Toh. Swift's tour is set to conclude near the end of 2024.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Nomura, Si Ying Toh, Toh Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall, Nomura, Disney, CNBC PRO Locations: American, Chicago, U.S, Illinois, Japan, Singapore, Sweden
China's travel activity and spending jumped above pre-pandemic levels during the Lunar New year holiday, in a sign that consumption was improving in the world's second-largest economy. Tourists spent nearly 632.7 billion yuan ($87.95 billion) on domestic holiday trips, a 47.3% year-over-year jump, data showed. State broadcaster China Central Television said citing the ministry that domestic trips represented a 19% rise over the same period in 2019 while spending rose 7.7%. The Chinese mainland saw 3.6 million tourist departures and 3.23 million tourist arrivals during the holidays, according to the ministry, as mutual visa-free travel with certain countries hastened the recovery in both outbound and inbound travel during the holidays. However, sustainability of the bump in travel remains uncertain as tourism revenue per trip still remained below the pre-pandemic level.
Persons: Nomura Organizations: country's Ministry of Culture, Tourism, Tourists, China Central Television Locations: Sunday, State, China
But according to CNN calculations based on official data, the average tourism-related spending per trip was below pre-pandemic levels, as consumer confidence remains weak amid deflationary pressure. However, the most recent holiday season took place over eight days from February 10 to February 18, which was one day more than previous periods. On average, 59.25 million domestic trips per day were made during this holiday period, slightly lower than the 59.29 million trips per day taken in 2019. Movie ticket sales reached a record 8 billion yuan ($1.11 billion) during the eight-day holiday season, according to data released on Sunday by China Film Administration. “The headwinds to growth remain severe and it will take more than a bump in holiday travel for market sentiment to recover,” said Neumann.
Persons: ” Nomura, , Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Organizations: Beijing CNN, CNN, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, Hangzhou East Railway, National Immigration Administration, China Film Administration, HSBC, China Index Holdings, Shenzhen Component Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's Zhejiang province, Macao, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today’s big story, we’re looking at Google’s new internal AI model aimed at improving worker efficiency. The big storyAI assistanceCBS Photo Archive/Getty ImagesGoogle employees are getting an AI-powered wingman in the company’s bid to improve efficiency. Goose can answer questions about Google's tech and write and edit code, according to an internal summary of the model. Tech companies have tested inventions on their own employees for years in a process known as "dogfooding," writes BI's Alistair Barr.
Persons: , Denny's, customizations, Hugh Langley, Tom Cruise’s copilot, Alistair Barr, Tyler Lee, , Bryan R, Smith, Wall, Gary Gensler, We’re, Société, Elad Gil, Gil, ChatGPT, it’s, Uber, Nomura, Young homebuyers, Meredith Whitney, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, CBS, Getty, Microsoft, OpenAI, Tech, Google, Big Tech, Fed, UBS, SEC, Silicon Valley’s, BI, Xbox, Dragon, Workers, Wall Locations: China, New York, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndonesia election: Still possible for Prabowo to fall short of 50% threshold, economist saysEuben Paracuelles, chief ASEAN economist at Nomura, says looking back at the 2019 polls, "there is a tendency for front-runners to have a bit of an overestimate from surveys, relative to actual results."
Persons: Euben Paracuelles Organizations: Indonesia, Nomura Locations: ASEAN
AdvertisementChina's economy and markets were weak coming into 2024, but investor sentiment could worsen after the ongoing Chinese New Year break. "Service consumption growth will likely slow sharply after the Chinese New Year holiday on fading pent-up demand and weakening consumer confidence," the economists wrote. Authorities have pulled more than a dozen moves since January to try to stabilize the stock market rout and support downbeat property market demand amid its real-estate crisis. After all, there were suggestions earlier that authorities are considering a stabilization fund to rescue the flailing stock market. AdvertisementMainland stock markets are closed this week for public holidays.
Persons: , Rich Lesser, Lesser, Hang, Xi Jinping Organizations: Beijing, Service, Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Nomura, Boston Consulting, Hang Seng China Enterprises, Authorities Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong
Mainland Chinese stocks are trying to rebound from five-year lows and it's starting to look like Beijing is willing to take some action. "My question is, would a recovery in [the] Chinese economy and the stock market be the end to that multi-year rally in Chinese bonds?" If Chinese bond yields started to climb, that would likely indicate investors were rotating out, Papic pointed out. Mainland Chinese stock markets are closed and don't re-open until Monday, Feb. 19. They expect if sentiment remains weak, foreign capital still has scope to sell out of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks.
Persons: Clocktower, Marko Papic, Xi Jinping, Papic, Nomura, Yi Huiman, Wu Qing, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bloomberg, U.S ., Shanghai Stock Exchange, Eurasia Group, Hong, UBS, Naura Technology Locations: Beijing, Shanghai, China, U.S, Hong Kong, Eurasia, Shenzhen, Sungrow
The deck kicked off a game of one-upmanship among Wall Street banks trying to keep their employees happy. Lit capitalized on poking fun at Wall Street culture, selling $35 dad hats that read, "Do You Know Who My Father Is?" There have, of course, been endless rumors about Lit's identity, especially among Wall Street underlings. Wall Street underlings have speculated about Litquidity's identity for years. Basak, one attendee said, wanted to take a "wrecking ball through it all" and hold Wall Street heavy hitters accountable.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, I've, David Solomon, Litquidity, Goldman, Solomon, Evercore, Michael Kovac, Lit, Warburg Pincus, Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon's, Banksy, Bennett Jordan, who've, Lit's, — Mark Moran, , Jefferies, Richard Handler, Spencer Platt, Isaac Laifer, Laifer, Handler, We'd, Henry, Hank, Medina, He's, he's, Jefferies Medina, Bart P, Fuchs, Karl Smith, Mark Moran, Moran, Bloomberg he'd, Zack DeZon, Getty Images Moran, Brian Hanly, Hanly, Sonali Basak, Angela Weiss, cryptocurrency, we'll, Mark, Medina's, weren't, CoinFLEX, Litquidity doesn't, Dave Portnoy, wasn't, Medina Ayden Syal, Kyle Zappitell, Zappitell, he'd, hasn't, Bennett Jordan —, Craig Sjodin, Litney, Paul Argenti, Wall Organizations: Goldman, New York Times, CNBC, Business, Bloomberg, Metropolitan Club of New, Nomura, Citigroup, Financial Times, Litney Partners, Whitney Partners, BI, ESPN, Litquidity, Centerview Partners, New York, Getty, Bain Capital, Litquidity Venture Partners, SEC, Cornell University, Wexford Capital —, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, CFA, Getty Images, Bullish, Vice, Wall Street, Litquidity's, Manhattan's Rue, Fox Business, Litquidity Ventures, Coatue Management, SAFE, Soho House, Dartmouth University Locations: New York, Tribeca, Metropolitan Club of New York, Instagram, San Francisco, Medina, New York City, Miami, NoHo, Chad, Connecticut, Litquidity, Linktree, Soho
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