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☆ Workers still quitting at high rates — and getting a big bump in pay
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Filadendron | E+ | Getty ImagesThe share of workers who quit their jobs jumped in November for the first time since last spring — and they're getting a big pay bump for moving, data shows. The labor market remains strong by historical standards, characterized by a high level of job openings and low layoffs. That translates to ample opportunity for workers, who generally get an increase in pay when they accept a new position. In other words, the average consumer lost buying power because rapidly rising prices for goods and services outstripped pay growth. Wage growth has moderated a bit from 2021, though remains strong relative to its pre-pandemic trend, Bunker said.

☆ Is the US in a recession? Not yet, but experts think we could be in one soon.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.

☆ People are actually less worried about losing their jobs than they were before the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Still, workers are more worried about losing their jobs than they were earlier in the year. Of course, some are more worried than others about losing their jobs. When broken down by age, workers over 59 years old were the most worried about losing their jobs, while fears among those 40 to 59 went down a bit in November. Those under 40 also got a bit more worried about losing their jobs, although all age groups were less worried than they were in November 2021. However, workers with a high school education or less are less concerned about losing their jobs than workers with some college education or a BA and higher.

☆ The US is heading for a 'swamp' recession which could mire the economy in a disappointing and slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Kelly told Insider the recovery may be considered "tepid" given it will be a "mild improvement in things." David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, called it a "'swamp' recession" in a note, suggesting the "economy would likely struggle to get out of" what is potentially a mild recession. It's like standing on the edge of a swamp," Kelly told Insider. "The problem this time around is two-fold," Kelly told Insider. In short, Kelly told Insider that a modest recovery from a shallow recession could be viewed as "tepid" as it will be a "mild improvement in things."

That red-hot labor market might mean more economic woes later on as the Federal Reserve steps in. "Big picture here is that the labor market still has a lot of resilience," Nick Bunker, the economic-research director at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider. With the thriving labor market, Bunker said "the risk of an imminent recession is relatively low." While the job market is still hot, it's not growing at the same breakneck speed as it was last year. "I don't think this report changes the Fed's view of where the labor market is today," Zhao said.

☆ The US jobs market keeps beating the odds, adding another 263,000 jobs in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

InsiderThe US gained 263,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, better than the 200,000 economists expected. November's gain shows ongoing strength in the jobs market. There were 263,000 nonfarm payrolls added in November, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). But as we head to the end of 2022, the US labor market remains resilient." The "temperature is still high" in the labor market as Bunker told Insider after the last jobs report.

☆ The Great Resignation isn't paying off like it was this summer
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker shows wage growth for job switchers has slowed. However, wage growth is still stronger for job switchers than job stayers. However, wage growth for job switchers was still above overall wage growth in October of 6.4%. Although wage growth may have slowed from this summer for job switchers, it's still higher than the growth of their peers who have stayed in their positions. "As the economy slows, job switchers will increasingly have to make the trade-off between higher pay for less job security."

☆ Welcome to the new labor market, where everyone still quits all the time and some people will just never come back to work
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US labor market includes millions of Americans quitting in near-record numbers month after month. Cyclical and structural changes are affecting labor force participation, according to one expert. At the same time, the labor market is still bustling, even as it starts to slowly cool. The US labor force participation rate plunged during the pandemic to 60.2% in April 2020. Some people are just staying on the sidelines, and not heading back to the labor force — adding to the labor shortage and the tight labor market businesses are dealing with.

The latest data on jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a still-robust labor market in the US. With inflation continuing to soar in the US, the Federal Reserve has moved aggressively to combat high prices by hiking interest rates. But on Friday, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the labor market continues to be strong. As Insider previously reported,the Fed's high interest rates would cause companies to slow their hiring plans, and therefore lead to smaller pay gains for workers. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Fed's December meeting when it will announce its next round of interest rate hikes.

☆ Logistics Companies Are Reversing Their Hiring Binge
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +4 min

The hiring frenzy in logistics driven by pandemic-fueled shopping appears to be cooling off. “We got ahead of ourselves in terms of head count,” said Bob Biesterfeld, chief executive of C.H. Newsletter Sign-up The Logistics Report Top news and in-depth analysis on the world of logistics, from supply chain to transport and technology. Chief Executive Judy McReynolds said the company would now look to get “greater efficiency” from the people it already employs. “We aren’t really hiring other than filling vacancies and whatnot,” Chief Executive Greg Gantt said on an Oct. 26 earnings call.

☆ U.S. job growth beats expectations in October, but cracks emerging
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The report to us looks like payroll jobs growth will falter in coming months as companies batten down the hatches as the Fed continues to take away the economy's punch." The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month. Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. The increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% September reflected a 328,000 decline in household employment. "The hope is that the labor market is merely returning to a more normal pace, rather than sitting dead in the water."

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose after the release of the data, as did bets that the Fed may raise its target policy rate higher than anticipated. DIFFICULT TO PIVOTThe job openings data "will make it very difficult for the Fed to pivot" towards a slower pace of rate hikes, as many have expected, Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons wrote. Quits are seen as a sign of labor market strength, evidence that people either have a more attractive option in front of them or are confident of finding one. Balanced against the strength of the labor market is evidence that a slowing of inflation may be in the pipeline. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jump in job openings "is another example of data 'not cooperating' with the Fed's desire to slow the pace of rate hikes," Citi analysts wrote.

☆ Despite the odds, the Great Resignation lives on
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Pollak, "the overall trend is back towards less turnover in the labor market, higher retention numbers." At the industry-level, the quit rate in construction slipped to 2.0% after two consecutive months at 2.7%. The quit rate for professional and business services, for instance, increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%. There were 10.7 million job openings in September according to Tuesday's release. But while a lot of job openings might seem like a good thing for the economy, it could spell danger ahead.

☆ The US economy came back to life this summer, but things are still likely to suck next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."

☆ Meet a couple who retired and then quickly went back to work because of sky-high inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stephen and Karen White retired in 2021, but then they rejoined the workforce. The couple made the choice to retire in the beginning of 2021 after visiting Washington, but the pandemic's impact also played a role. After both officially retired in the summer of 2021, skyrocketing inflation pushed the couple to walk back their plans and go back to the workforce grind. Stephen went back to work in education. "Workers who say they've retired regularly return to work after some time away."

Fewer job openings may sound bad, but in this moment it's a good sign for the economy. But chairs started being pulled away at a much faster pace in August, which could give job seekers a wake-up call. "If there are 100 chairs and 50 workers, workers are cool, man!" Companies are putting up record job openings, but they're not saying when — or even if — they'll fill them. That's frustrated some job seekers as they apply to multiple roles and never hear back.

We don't want surprises right now with the economy and with the labor market," Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, told Insider. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% through the month, beating the median forecast of 3.7%. After a transcendent recovery and more than a year of a so-called labor shortage, the labor market is easing up. The shift into a more normal labor market will likely charge well into 2023. Still, the central bank's own projections spell out an unappealing outlook for the labor market.

☆ Here's where the jobs are for September 2022 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The sector has been consistently adding jobs since the Covid restrictions in 2020 shuttered many bars and restaurants. However, the sector is still more than 1 million jobs below its pre-pandemic levels, according to the Labor Department. The Labor Department includes those sectors in a broader sector, which includes private education, and that larger group added 90,000 jobs for the month. But there were several areas that shed jobs last month, contributing to the slowdown in job gains. Retail trade and transportation and warehousing combined to shed 9,000 jobs, reflecting a weakness in consumer spending on goods.

☆ What to expect from Friday’s jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is forecast to have added 250,000 jobs in September, which would be the lowest monthly jobs gain since December 2020. August jobs data already indicated that the historically tight labor market has loosened by a notch. The jobs report for that month found that America added 315,000 positions, a much lower level than the 512,000 average job gains over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate will likely have to rise despite these downward demographic pressures, and that likely would have to come from people losing their jobs. It’s not going to be a painless slow grind.”The September jobs report is among the key economic data that Fed policymaking officials will review when they meet in early November to discuss how to stifle stubbornly high inflation.

☆ The number of US job openings fell by more than 1 million in August
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The number of job openings dropped to just under 10.1 million, down from 11.2 million in July, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jay Powell is fist pumping at that job openings number. — Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 4, 2022Economists were expecting job openings to fall to just 10.8 million, according to estimates on Refinitiv. Practically every industry saw a decline in job openings, indicating a broader slowdown, he said. “The key concern for the medium-term US inflation outlook is the extreme imbalance in the labor market,” he wrote.

☆ Fed Chair Powell warned of ‘pain’ to come. Seniors on fixed incomes are already feeling it
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Martha C. White | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

“Social Security comes up short by at least $1,000 [a month] in many locations. John Harriger, a resident of Chilhowie, Virginia, suffered a disabling back injury in 1994 and relies solely on Social Security for income. “I get about $1,800 a month [from Social Security] but… when gas and groceries started going up, I couldn’t make it any more. Sites, who relies wholly on Social Security for her income, said she worries what will happen when the mortgage on her home near Asheville, North Carolina, resets. This has a pass-through effect on the financial security of older Americans.

☆ Some jobs won't recover from the pandemic recession. It could be a good thing for workers.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-17 | by ( Ben Winck | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US is back to record-high employment, but the labor market looks nothing like it did in early 2020. For starters, many in-person service sectors are still struggling to get back to the employment levels seen before the pandemic. Transit and ground passenger transportation, which includes school buses and public transit, is also still not back to pre-pandemic employment either. "I think overall, accommodation and the broader leisure and hospitality industry will return to pre-pandemic employment levels," Zhao said. The changing labor market could be good for workersThe labor market shakeup isn't necessarily a bad thing.

☆ Rising layoffs, high inflation, and the dreaded R-word have American workers nervous. Here's a guide to managing your career in an uncertain economy.
▼ + stars: | 2022-07-18 | by ( Rachel Durose | Catherine Henderson | Rebecca Knight | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

The economic news is mixed: Inflation and interest rates are high, but the job market looks solid. It's possible that the Fed manages to cool off the economy and tame inflation without causing a spike in unemployment, said Flowers. "The outlook isn't as rosy as it was," Nick Bunker, the head of economic research at the jobs platform Indeed. If the thought of an economic downturn makes you fear for your job, you're not alone. Mentor someone else in your organization — if you're relatively new on the job yourself, take a student intern under your wing.

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