Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty Images1.
Maybe that third one isn't quite so guaranteed — but history tells us the bond market's recession warning is a pretty reliable signal of a downturn in the near to medium-term.
The two-year yield on Thursday jumped eight basis points, to 3.86%, 39 basis points above the 30-year Treasury yield of about 3.47%.
The stock market's fear gauge is off, too, according to DataTrek.
How confident are you in the current market?