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☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - New data from the New York Federal Reserve shows underlying inflation may have slowed faster than the headline measures that have kept U.S. central bank officials poised for further interest rate increases. The New York Fed core trend also factors out the food and energy items that central bankers try to look beyond in assessing the direction of inflation. That's because recent data on rents, which have been moderating, gets incorporated faster into the New York Fed's estimates. From a monetary policy perspective, the new estimate could add fodder to arguments for being more cautious about further rate increases. Some policymakers have been concerned that the main measure of core inflation has shown little improvement; the New York Fed's alternate measure suggests that may be the result of temporary factors rather than a more persistent trend.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Reuters, New, Fed, New York Fed, York, Thomson Locations: York

☆ What the stock market is saying about when to expect a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

As the economy proved more resilient than expected, and the US has avoided recession so far, the case for a 2023 recession has been crumbling. The stock market, which entered bull market territory just a few weeks ago, has shown little sign this year that the economy could be headed for a downturn. Still, the bond market tells a different story: The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model calculates the probability that the US will enter a recession in the next 12 months by tracking the spread of 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. US stock market closes early at 1 p.m. Tuesday: US stock market closed for July Fourth.

Persons: Brian Moynihan, “ We’re, ”, David Grecsek, Jerome Powell, it’s, “ we’re, Russell, Outflows, Brian Mulberry, Tim Courtney, Courtney ., “, Niño, Samantha Delouya, El Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNN, Vanguard, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Fed, Investment Company Institute, Zacks Investment Management, New, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Exencial Wealth, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, PMI, Labor Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, El

☆ Six questions facing US stock investors as 2023's second half nears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With two days left in the first half, the S&P 500 (.SPX) is up 14% in 2023 - a rebound that surprised many analysts after equities’ brutal 2022 decline. If history is a guide, stocks’ strong start may give them a tailwind in the second half. Here are six key questions investors are posing as they assess the market's prospects:WHERE’S THAT RECESSION? While the S&P 500 has gained 14% this year, the equal-weight version of the index -- a proxy for the average stock -- has gained just 4.2%. The S&P 500 tech sector (.SPLRCT) now trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

Persons: Sam Stovall, Refinitiv, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Nasdaq, New York Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS, CAN, Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp, HSBC, Reuters Graphics, Advisory Services, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ The Fed is about to decide whether or not to keep ramping up its fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some anticipate the Fed will raise rates again in July in an attempt to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Even if the Fed forgoes a rate increase on Wednesday, Fed officials have suggested the Fed may hike rates again at later meetings. The survey also found people's expectations of job loss fell 1.3 percentage points to 10.9%, suggesting rising job market strength. "I do not think that wages are the principal driver of inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's May policy meeting. "For instance, recent evidence shows that wage growth tends to follow inflation, as well as expectations of future inflation."

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell, Adam Shapiro, Shapiro Organizations: Federal, Service, Committee, Fed, payrolls, Labor Statistics, Labor, Index, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Ukraine, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for May showed one-year inflation expectations down 0.3 percentage point to a 4.1% rate. Still, median inflation expectations over the longer run edged higher. The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%. Some of the inflation rise has been fed by accelerating wages, and the survey showed the outlook there is also diminishing. Correction: The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, New

☆ Consumer spending: Gen Z, Millennials are scrimping. Boomers are living it up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

While Baby Boomers and even Traditionalists (born 1928-1945) are ramping up spending, Gen X, Gen Z and Millennials are cutting back as they grapple with high housing costs and looming student debt payments. If not for the aggressive spending by Boomers, Tinsley said, overall consumer spending would have been even more negative. Bank of America spending data shows a noticeable bump in spending by households that received the cost-of-living boost. The student debt freeze, in effect since March 2020 when the Covid pandemic erupted, is expected to conclude by the end of August. For millions of Gen Z and Millennials, the return of student debt payments will mean less money for spending on restaurants and vacations.

Persons: Gen X, Gen, ” David Tinsley, Tinsley, ” Tinsley, ”, Biden, “ Organizations: New York CNN, Younger, Bank of America, Boomers, Bank of America Institute, CNN, Baby Boomers, Social, New York Federal Reserve Locations: Tinsley

☆ Why do businesses keep raising their prices?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Los Angeles CNN —After two years of surging prices, economists still can’t agree on what has caused the world’s worst inflation crisis in decades. The survey of 700 businesses across New York, Atlanta and Cleveland found that strength of customer demand outranked all other factors that companies weigh when setting prices, including steady profit margins and overall inflation. More than 82% of businesses surveyed said demand factored into their pricing decisions, while only 52% of businesses said they take the overall rate of inflation into account when setting prices. Are customers too willing to pay higher prices? Murphy said the restaurant has since raised prices more than once to keep up with inflation.

Persons: “, John Zheng, ”, Zheng, Mr, Mac’s, Mark Murphy, Murphy, ” Murphy, Emily Netti, “ I’ve Organizations: Los Angeles CNN —, New York Federal Reserve, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, Colgate, Procter, Gamble, PepsiCo, Federal Reserve, New York Fed Locations: Ukraine, New, New York, Atlanta, Cleveland, Manchester , New Hampshire, Syracuse , New York, Syracuse

☆ White House hails the end of the supply chain nightmare
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —White House officials on Thursday hailed the unclogging of supply chains and suggested that further easing of bottlenecks will help cool inflation. “Critical supply chains are significantly more fluid and resilient than they were when the President took office,” White House officials wrote in a supply chain scorecard shared first with CNN. The traffic jam of vessels backed up ports, once a symbol of the supply chain crisis, has all but disappeared. The White House economists said it is a “positive development for consumers” and struck a hopeful tone it will continue. The blog post said there is a high correlation between producer prices and supply chain pressures, suggesting the easing in supply chain pressure may continue to cool inflation.

Persons: ”, Biden, Biden’s, ” Lael Brainard, ” Torsten Slok, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, CNN, National Economic Council, Consumers, IRI, Shipping, New York Federal, Apollo Global Management, Defense, EV, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Institute of Supply, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Ukraine

☆ Fed's Williams says world of low interest rates still prevails
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Williams' remarks took on the technical concept of the natural rate of interest, referred to as R-Star, which the New York Fed defines "as the real short-term interest rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable." Before the pandemic struck, this measure had been historically low, allowing the central bank to keep its interest rate target at fairly low levels. Williams said that given efforts to understand how the pandemic had impacted R-Star, his regional Fed bank will once again provide an estimate on a quarterly basis. To translate R-Star into a real-world rate depends on taking the variable and adding it to the central bank's 2% inflation target. But his comments suggest that once the Fed's battle to contain high inflation is over, it may again at some later time be able to return short-term rates to low levels.

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.

☆ Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 47.98 points, or 0.14%, to 33,348.6, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.2 points, or 0.30%, to 4,136.28 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 80.47 points, or 0.66%, to 12,365.21. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) climbed 2.16% as one of the top boosts to both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Loop Capital upgraded it to "buy" from "hold." Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIn a relatively light week for economic data, investors will focus on retail sales, weekly jobless claims and housing data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 136 new lows.

☆ Wall Street advances, Treasury yields rise as debt-ceiling debate rolls along
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. "Part of that may be political gamesmanship, but it's helping the market a little bit today." European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.54%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the ongoing debt ceiling standoff stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.

☆ US dollar retreats from five-week high as debt ceiling stalemate weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 102.40. Earlier in the session, the dollar touched a five-week high of 102.75. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth, as well as more hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.3% at 136.06, while sterling was 0.7% higher at $1.2527, rebounding after last week's 1.5% fall. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when the dollar hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.

☆ Tech lifts Nasdaq, Treasury yields gain as debt ceiling debate plods on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. "It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.53%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the debt ceiling standoff wore on, and investors clung to hopes of interest rate cuts by year-end, despite comments from Fed officials.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "much much too high" despite the rate hikes. Investors now await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for any clues on potential rate cuts this year. Shares of Magellan jumped 13.7%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 44 new highs and 110 new lows.

☆ New York factory activity slumps in May - NY Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State plunged in May, but the survey is extremely volatile, making it harder to interpret. A reading below zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is contracting. Nevertheless, higher interest rates and the rotation of spending back to services from goods is hurting national manufacturing activity. Tighter credit conditions are also seen as a drag. The New York Fed will on Tuesday publish a survey focusing on credit access and credit conditions.

The greenback took an early dive after data showed the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index plunged to -31.8 this month from a reading of 10.8 in April. "The things that have weighed on the dollar recently have not gone away, such as the debt ceiling, even though there has been some progress made." In late morning trading the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 102.48. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when it hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ NY Fed's domestic markets chief to join Bank of New York Mellon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 15 (Reuters) - Bank of New York Mellon Corp on Monday said a top New York Federal Reserve official responsible for domestic markets will join the firm next month in a job focused on financial markets. Nathaniel Wuerffel, who last served as senior vice president at the New York Fed and was the New York Fed's Head of Domestic Markets, will join the bank as Head of Market Structure. His bio said he had been working as chief of the domestic markets group since June 2018. Before joining the New York Fed, Wuerffel worked at the Chicago Fed, starting there in 1998. Wuerffel’s exit comes amid flux in the New York Fed’s top staff.

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - As talks over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling intensify, Wall Street banks and asset managers have begun preparing for fallout from a potential default. Citigroup (C.N) CEO Jane Fraser said this debate on the debt ceiling is "more worrying" than previous ones. U.S. government bonds underpin the global financial system so it is difficult to fully gauge the damage a default would create, but executives expect massive volatility across equity, debt and other markets. Banks, brokers and trading platforms are prepping for disruption to the Treasury market, as well as broader volatility. Bond trading platform Tradeweb said it was in discussions with clients, industry groups, and other market participants about contingency plans.

☆ New York Fed: Household debt rises by 0.9% in Q1, smallest gain in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew York Fed: Household debt rises by 0.9% in Q1, smallest gain in two yearsCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on household debt data from the New York Federal Reserve.

☆ Biden's plan to give millions of student-loan borrowers who fell behind on payments a fresh shot at debt relief is working
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Biden announced a "Fresh Start" plan to return borrowers behind on payments to good standing before reentering repayment. Data from the New York Fed found less than 1% of borrowers are in default due to the plan. The Education Secretary recently confirmed that payments will resume this year, with or without broad debt relief. This progress is important given that student-loan payments are expected to resume this year after what will be an over three year pause. The Education Department is also in the process of implementing a new income-driven repayment plan, which it says would be "the most affordable repayment plan ever."

☆ Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. A series of Fed rate cuts helped push 30-year mortgage rates to a low around 2.65% in January 2021. The higher rates helped push total mortgage debt to $12.04 trillion, up 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter. Despite rising rates, mortgage foreclosures remained low. Delinquency rates for all debt increased, up 0.6 percentage point for credit cards to 6.5% and 0.2 percentage point for auto loans to 6.9%.

☆ Inflation is cooling — but many items aren’t cheaper. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Instead, the pace of price increases slowed from a year ago. But they may be suffering from even bigger price increases for margarine, which was up 24%. Poorer households spend a greater portion of their income on unavoidable expenses like food and gas, which makes them more vulnerable to price increases. Not everything is responding well to interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve spent the past year hiking interest rates in the interest of lowering inflation. When the Fed raises interest rates, it costs more for banks and other lenders to borrow money.

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