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☆ UK inflation holds steady for September after Bank of England pauses rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September, slightly ahead of expectations and unchanged from the previous month. For August, the U.K. consumer price index surprised with a dip to 6.7%, below expectations, which sparked the Bank of England to end a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes. The bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% in August. The market is pricing around a 77% chance that the Bank holds rates steady again at its next meeting on November 2nd. For now, the higher for longer interest rate narrative will continue to persist," he said Wednesday in an emailed note.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Hetal Mehta, BoE Organizations: LONDON, Reuters, National Statistics, Chancellor, Bank of, Bank, Quilter Investors, Bank of England's, Bank of England Locations: Canary, London, Bank of England, British, James's

☆ UK regular pay growth slows for first time since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Private-sector regular pay - the component looked at most closely by the BoE - saw annual growth slow to 8.0% in the three months to August, from 8.1%. Regular pay, adjusted for CPI inflation, grew by an annual 0.7% in the three months to August. Reuters GraphicsSLUGGISH ECONOMYBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday that fast rates of nominal pay growth stood at odds with most other labour market measures, which have pointed to a slowing economy. The number of job vacancies in the three months to September fell to a two-year low of 988,000, Tuesday's data showed. Unemployment figures and other related labour market data will not be published until Oct. 24, after the ONS said on Friday it needed more time to take account of low response rates.

Persons: Kevin Coombs, BoE, James Smith, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Huw Pill, payrolls, Ashley Webb, Webb, Sachin Ravikumar, William Schomberg, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, LONDON, Bank of England, Britain's, National Statistics, Reuters, U.S, Bank, England's, ING, Private, of England, International Monetary, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain

☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

Research shows women in richer economies are more likely to have children if they work. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni - Italy's first female premier - has said women are "an untapped resource" that lessens the need for immigrant labour. Yet her conservative government's 2024 budget, to be presented on Monday, is not expected to include measures to drive change. According to a government report relating to 2021, nearly one in five Italian women aged under 50 left their job after having their first child. SPANISH SUCCESSMeloni's government could learn from Spain, whose female activity rate lagged Italy's in the early 1990s but is now above the EU average.

Persons: Guzzo, Vittoria, Claudia Greco, Elena, Claudia Goldin, Giorgia Meloni, Claudia Olivetti, Enza Guzzo, Gian Carlo Blangiardo, Blangiardo, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Olivetti, Paola Profeta, Katharine Neiss, Valentina Za, Elisa Anzolin, Giuseppe Fonte, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, Reuters, Research, Dartmouth College, ISTAT, Bank of, EU, France's, Milan's Bocconi University, AXA Research, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Arese, Italy, MILAN, Bank of Italy, Rome, Barcelona, Spain, Milan

☆ UK economy grew 0.2% in August, propped up by services sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England

☆ Southern Italians stick with student life as jobs hard to find
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 12 (Reuters) - Southern Italians are studying more and for longer as a shortage of jobs forces many to either stay in school or relocate, a report by national statistics bureau ISTAT showed on Thursday. "The lack of stable and good quality job opportunities in the Mezzogiorno is nothing new, but the situation among "millennials" is getting worse", ISTAT said. "The current youth of the Mezzogiorno face a longer and more complicated journey towards adulthood," it added. "It is a paradox, but in the medium-long term, this could fuel a further deprivation of human capital with advanced skills, which is indispensable for the Mezzogiorno", ISTAT said. Southern youths are dissatisfied with their economic situation and almost three quarters of them still live with their parents.

Persons: Alessandro Parodi, Keith Weir Organizations: ISTAT, Thomson Locations: Southern, Sicily, Sardinia, Italy

Failure to secure the cash they need at rates they can afford, could lead to insolvencies and layoffs. "I think we're now starting to finally see the fall of some of the zombies," she added. This can include restructuring loan repayments, offering reduced rates or other more relaxed terms and can help banks avoid loan write-offs. "Banks and private equity shops have waited to see if the tide turned but higher rates don't allow hiding anymore." Any large corporate failures are likely to have a "contamination effect", said Tim Metzgen, an A&M managing director.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Alvarez, Julie Palmer, Begbies Traynor, we're, Begbies, Nicola Marinelli, Banks, Paul Kirkbright, Kirkbright, Eva Shang, Katie Murray, Naresh Aggarwal, Ravi Anand, Anand, Tim Metzgen, Jane Merriman Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Britain's, National Statistics, Casino, Regent's University, of England, Bank of, Finance, M's, NatWest Group, Association of Corporate, Companies, Thomson Locations: Europe, Middle East, Africa, England, Wales, U.S, Basel III

☆ China’s economy will be hobbled for years by the real estate crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.

Persons: ”, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, “, — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan

For his manager, Barrie Chapman, the overtime he now gets is a huge boost once unheard of in the hospitality sector. At its "Alcampo Lounge" venue in Brighton, staff can get a free meal per shift, flexible hours, bonuses, and overtime for salaried employees. "There's been a trend in hospitality to work staff hard, to not treat them very well, because there was always another person that would come in," said head chef Chris Lloyd-Rogers. "That's why people leave work, and it's what brings people back," Wilson said. Recruitment website Indeed said its regular survey of job seekers showed that the most highly valued benefits were flexible working and sick pay.

Persons: Josh Hughes, Davies, Barrie Chapman, Jen Eaton, Nick Collins, Eaton, Chapman, Hughes, Spencer, Britain's, Loungers, There's, Chris Lloyd, Rogers, Tony Wilson, Wilson, Sarah Findlater, Fiona Walters, Amit Puntambekar, Puntambekar, James Davey, Kate Holton, David Milliken, David Clarke 私 Organizations: Reuters, Amazon, Tesco, Global, Office, National Statistics, Britain, EU, Institute for Employment Studies, Organisation for Economic Co, IES Locations: BRIGHTON, England, Brighton, Britain, Cambridge, London

☆ Peruvian annual inflation eases to lowest level in more than two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 1 (Reuters) - Annual inflation in Peru decelerated to 5.04% in September to hit its lowest level in more than two years, according to official figures published on Sunday, though consumer prices remained some way above the central bank's target rate. Data from national statistics agency INEI showed the key index based on the metropolitan region of Lima slowed to its lowest level since August 2021, when it stood at 4.95%. On a month-to-month basis the Lima Consumer Price Index, Peru's inflation benchmark, inched up 0.02% in September, well below the 0.38% increase in August. The figures are a boost to Peru's bid to wrestle inflation back to the central bank's official target of 2%, plus or minus one percentage point. Reporting by Diego Ore in Mexico City and Jose Joseph in Bengaluru Editing by Drazen Jorgic and Aurora EllisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: INEI, Diego Ore, Jose Joseph, Drazen Jorgic, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Lima Consumer, Diego, Thomson Locations: Peru decelerated, Lima, Mexico City, Bengaluru

☆ Special Report: How Cubans were recruited to fight for Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Dave Sherwood | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

In La Federal, for example, all nine recruits identified by Reuters signed up to fight in the war. "We are deeply concerned by reports alleging young Cubans have been deceived and recruited to fight for Russia," the spokesperson said. In La Federal, word of the army work began to spread in June, according to the residents interviewed. The first line of the message states: "This is a contract with the Russian military by which you receive citizenship." He stressed that the people who signed up in La Federal knew they would be going to fight.

Persons: Dannys Castillo, Yamidely Cervantes, Enrique Gonzalez, Cervantes, husband Gonzalez, Gonzalez, Oleg Nikolenko, Vladimir Putin, Dayana, Cristian Hernandez, Viondi, Alina Gonzalez, Danilo, Roberto Sabori, Yasmani, MAMI, Mami, Luis Herlys Osorio, Nilda, Osorio, Havana didn't, Dave Sherwood, Alexandre Meneghini, Mario Fuentes, Carlos Carrillo, Matt Spetalnick, Tom Balmforth, Filipp Lebedev, Felix Light, Pravin Organizations: Reuters, La Federal, Federal, Russia, Kremlin, Cuban, U.S . State Department, Facebook, Dayana, Soviet, Pravin Char, Thomson Locations: Alamar, Havana, Cuba, La, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Russian, Tula, Crimea, Ukrainian, United States, Villa Maria, Cuban, U.S, America, Europe, Gonzalez, Varadero, Ryazan, Soviet, Angola, Africa, Washington

☆ Dollar set for best quarter in a year; yen-watch rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "We've had resilience in the U.S. economy, in the jobs market, inflation ticking higher and, obviously, the rise in oil prices. "We're not really expecting to see any rate cuts for quite some time, well toward the back end of 2024. Markets are looking ahead to the next data points, starting with key U.S. personal consumption data due later on Friday. The yen last traded at 149.125 to the dollar, which eased 0.13% on the day.

Persons: Florence Lo, Fiona Cincotta, We're, Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle, Neil Fullick, Kevin Liffey Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, City Index, Federal Reserve, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities, Sterling, National Statistics, COVID, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, Tokyo

"We know that the British economy recovered faster from the pandemic than anyone previously thought and data out today once again proves the doubters wrong," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics. The upward revisions were concentrated in 2020 and 2021, during the height of the pandemic and immediate aftermath. Growth in 2021 was revised to 8.7% from 7.6%, while the size of 2020's historic slump was reduced to 10.4% from 11.0%, in line with preliminary guidance on Sept. 1. Growth in 2022 was revised up to 4.3% from 4.1%.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Jeremy Hunt, Ruth Gregory, Thomas Pugh, Capital's Gregory, David Milliken, Andy Bruce, William James, Toby Chopra Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, National Statistics, European Union, Capital Economics, The Bank of England, RSM, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ONS, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, Germany, France, United States, Japan, Italy, Canada, Ukraine

☆ UK economic recovery picks up steam, overtaking 'sick man' Germany — for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K.'s economic performance since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic has surpassed that of France and Germany, according to new data revisions published on Friday. A previous ONS estimate in August had suggested that U.K. GDP was still 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels, making it the slowest recovery among advanced economies. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said in a statement Friday said the revised data "once again proves the doubters wrong." Still a 'flatlining economy' The U.K. economy has proven surprisingly resilient so far. "Unfortunately this snapshot of economic data is not significant enough to change the overall picture of a flatlining economy," said PwC economist Jake Finney.

Persons: Germany —, Jeremy Hunt, Jake Finney Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, National Statistics, British, IMF, Bank of England Locations: Canary, London, France, Germany, British, Europe, Italy

☆ UK business confidence slips in September: Lloyds Bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Lloyds Banking Group PLC FollowLONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - British business confidence declined in September as optimism about the economic outlook faded, a survey showed on Friday, adding to signs of a slowdown in the economy. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer, which surveys around 1,200 companies across the economy, fell to 36% from August's 18-month high of 41%. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said the BoE's decision - taken after the survey was conducted - could underpin business confidence in the coming months. While Lloyds said its gauge of pricing expectations inched higher in September, hiring intentions cooled. The proportion of companies planning to raise salaries also fell, although remained around the average for the year.

Persons: Hann, Ju Ho, Andy Bruce Organizations: Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds Bank, P Global PMI, Lloyds, Bank of England, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, National Statistics, Thomson

☆ JPMorgan's UK digital bank blocks customers from buying crypto
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chase UK, the British challenger bank brand of JPMorgan, has blocked customers in the U.K. from purchasing crypto assets. The company said in a statement Tuesday that, starting Oct. 16, Chase UK customers would "no longer be able to make crypto transactions via debit card or by outgoing bank transfer." Chase UK cited data from Action Fraud, Britain's fraud reporting agency, that showed U.K consumer losses to crypto fraud increased by over 40% in the last year, surpassing £300 million for the first time. Chase UK is the latest bank in the country to take steps to limit the ability of their customers to purchase cryptocurrencies. "We're committed to helping keep our customers' money safe and secure," a Chase spokesperson told CNBC via email Tuesday.

Persons: Chase, We're Organizations: Chase, JPMorgan, Wales, Office, National Statistics, cryptocurrencies, NatWest, HSBC, Nationwide, CNBC Locations: England

☆ UK workers take most sick leave in over 10 years, employers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - British workers took the most sick leave in more than a decade during the past year, a survey of employers showed on Tuesday, adding to signs of a lasting increase in ill health since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said a survey of several hundred employers showed the average employee took 7.8 days of sick leave during the past year. External factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis have had profound impacts on many people's wellbeing," said Rachel Suff, the CIPD's senior employee wellbeing advisor. Public-sector staff took over two weeks' sick leave on average, nearly twice as much as employees in private-sector services firms. More than a third of employers said COVID-19 remained a significant cause of short-term absence, although minor illnesses, injuries and mental ill health were all more common reasons.

Persons: Rachel Suff, David Milliken, William James Our Organizations: Chartered Institute, Personnel, Public, National Statistics, Thomson

☆ Want to live in London or New York? Good luck if you’re renting
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —In May, Viveca Chow hurriedly transferred $3,700 over her phone while standing in the lobby of a building in Queens, New York. Average rents in New York and Sydney grew by an inflation-busting 4.7% and 6.9% respectively in the year to August, according to real estate firm Knight Frank. While growth in rental costs in both cities has slowed compared with its pandemic peaks, average rents are still at all-time highs. The Manhattan skyline reflected on the East River Ferry near the Queens borough of New York CIty in August 2022. Lifestyle influencer Viveca Chow feels lucky to have found a rent-stabilized apartment in New York City.

Persons: Viveca Chow, Chow, Knight Frank, Ismail Ferdous, Realtor.com, SpareRoom, Barnaby Scudds, “ I’m, ”, Andy Raim, Matt Hutchinson, ” Hutchinson, Liam Bailey, ’, Sadiq Khan, Nikodem Szumilo, ” Szumilo, Szumilo, Viveca, ” Chow, you’re Organizations: London CNN —, CNN, Bloomberg, Getty, Hamptons, Office, National Statistics, Bartlett Real Estate Institute, University College London Locations: Queens , New York, New York, Sydney, Manhattan, Queens, London, United Kingdom, Bartlett, Tokyo, New York City, That’s

☆ Mexico inflation continues slowdown in early September
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man sells corn grains at a public market in Ozumba de Alzate, State of Mexico, Mexico, May 24, 2022. Headline inflation in Latin America's second-largest economy hit 4.44% in the 12 months through early September, down from 4.64% at the end of August, data from statistics agency INEGI showed. If not, we're talking about the Bank of Mexico standing on just one foot," the president told a press conference. It warned that it would be necessary to maintain it for an "extended" period to meet its inflation target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. Mexico's economy grew 0.2% in July from June and expanded 3.2% from the same month a year before, the national statistics agency said earlier on Friday.

Persons: Edgard Garrido, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Banxico, Lopez Obrador, Peter Frontini, Raul Cortes Fernandez, Brendan O'Boyle, Natalia Siniawski, Alistair Bell Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Ozumba de Alzate, State, Mexico, Bank of Mexico

☆ Italy sees 2023 budget deficit overshoot at around 5.5% of GDP, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Giuseppe Fonte | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reacts at a news conference for her government's first budget in Rome, Italy November 22, 2022. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsROME, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Italy sees its 2023 budget deficit overshooting at around 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) from the current 4.5% target, sources told Reuters, pushed up by high interest rates and accounting adjustments regarding costly tax credits. The 3.7% target currently established for next year's fiscal gap is also set to be revised upwards, two sources close to the matter said. However, national statistics bureau ISTAT said any revisions to GDP data for the first and second quarter of this year are likely to be no more than marginal. Italy will unveil its new economic projections next week in the Treasury's annual Economic and Financial Document (DEF).

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Remo Casilli, Giorgia, Gavin Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: Italian, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Eurostat, Treasury, ISTAT, Thomson Locations: Rome, Italy

☆ British retail sales grow in August after washout in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - British retail sales partially recovered in August after a rainy July washout, official figures showed on Friday, adding to signs that the country's consumers were mostly coping with the cost-of-living squeeze. Sales volumes rose by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis after a sharp 1.1% fall in July, the Office for National Statistics said. "These were partially offset by internet sales, which dropped slightly as some people returned to shopping in person following a very wet July. However, August's data represented the sixth time so far in 2023 that sales volumes rose on a month-to-month basis, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Retail sales volumes were 1.4% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 1.2% decline.

Persons: Phil Noble, Heather Bovill, GfK, BoE, William Schomberg, James Davey, William James, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, National Statistics, Reuters, Office, Bank of England, British Foods, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain

☆ Bank of England pauses interest rate hikes as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —The Bank of England paused its historic interest rate hiking campaign for the first time in nearly two years Thursday after inflation fell unexpectedly in August. The Federal Reserve also kept rates on hold Wednesday, as did Switzerland’s central bank earlier on Thursday. The Bank of England did not rule out further rate increases, however, although it said it expected headline inflation to “fall significantly” in the near term, reflecting lower energy and food inflation. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would rise to 7% — from 6.8% in July — because of higher oil prices. “There is an air of underlying weakness,” chief UK economist at Capital Economics Paul Dales said about July’s GDP data.

Persons: Martin Beck, insolvencies, Capital Economics Paul Dales Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Federal, Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics Paul Locations: United Kingdom, —

☆ House prices are falling and rents are rising in the UK. These 2 stocks will benefit, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Falling house prices and rising rents are expected to benefit two U.K. stocks focused on the private rented sector: The PRS REIT PLC and Grainger PLC , according to stock analysts. Those contrary trends of declining house prices and surging rents have created a favorable environment for companies owning rental housing — like PRS REIT and Grainger. Jefferies has forecast 9% rental growth for PRS REIT in 2023, while Berenberg expects continued "strong organic rental growth to result in continued earnings growth, despite increasing finance costs." The investment banks also pointed to high occupancy rates for the two landlords: 97-98% for PRS REIT and 98.7% for Grainger. PRS REIT shares have dropped 21% in the past year, far above the 2.1% decline for the FTSE 250 index.

Persons: Grainger, PRS REIT, Jefferies, Berenberg, Numis, Mike Prew Organizations: PRS REIT PLC, Grainger PLC, National Statistics, PRS, PRS REIT, Grainger Locations: London

Investors put a nearly 50-50 chance on the BoE keeping rates on hold on Thursday after 14 back-to-back increases stretching back to December 2021. Investors had been overwhelmingly expecting the BoE to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row on Thursday, taking Bank Rate to 5.5% from 5.25%. "The inflation figures may not sway the Bank of England away from raising interest rates tomorrow," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said. Britain's inflation rate remains high - topped only by Austria and Iceland among Western European countries in August. But core inflation - which strips out volatile food and energy prices - fell by more than the headline rate to 6.2% from 6.9% in July.

Persons: Hunt, BoE, Yael Selfin, Price, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, William James, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Sterling, U.S, Investors, National Statistics, KPMG, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: July's, British, Austria, Iceland, Western, Britain

☆ UK inflation dips to 6.7%, below expectations as food prices ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year. U.K. inflation surprised with a dip to 6.7% in August, below expectations and sparking increased bets on a pause in interest rate hikes from the Bank of England on Thursday. The goods rate rose slightly from 6.1% to 6.3% but was more than offset by the services rate slowing significantly from 7.4% to 6.8%. Caroline Simmons, U.K. chief investment officer at UBS, told CNBC that the central bank will still most likely hike on Thursday. "We do believe that's going to be their last hike, however, because we do have these downward forces on inflation," she added.

Persons: Raoul Ruparel, Ruparel, Caroline Simmons Organizations: OECD, Bank of England, Reuters, National Statistics, Boston Consulting Groups, for Growth, of England, UBS, CNBC Locations: Sheffield, London

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