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But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Tom Barkin, , Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock
David Autor seems an unlikely A.I. But Mr. Autor is now making the case that the new wave of technology — generative artificial intelligence, which can produce hyper-realistic images and video and convincingly imitate humans’ voices and writing — could reverse that trend. Mr. Autor’s stance on A.I. Modern A.I., Mr. Autor said, is a fundamentally different technology, opening the door to new possibilities. And if more people, including those without college degrees, can do more valuable work, they should be paid more, lifting more workers into the middle class.
Persons: David Autor, Autor, A.I, Mr Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mr
China's factory activity in March expanded by its strongest pace in more than a year, a private survey showed on Monday, in signs of stabilizing growth in the world's second-largest economy. The Caixin/S&P Global China manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 51.1 in March — its strongest since February 2023 — after coming in at 50.9 in February. Economists had expected the reading to hit 51, according to a Reuters poll. This reading corroborates another official survey of manufacturing activity that surpassed market expectations and came at its strongest in 11 months. The official survey for non-manufacturing activity in China recorded its most robust reading since June, adding to encouraging recent export and retail sales data.
Persons: Wang Zhe Organizations: P Global, Caixin Insight, China's National Bureau of Statistics Locations: P Global China, China
Asia-Pacific markets climbed Monday as investors assessed China's business activity for February and await economic data out of Japan. China's National Bureau of Statistics data showed that manufacturing activity expanded in March, with the purchasing managers index registering a reading of 50.8, compared to Feburary's reading of 49.1. Separately, Japan's first-quarter Tankan survey showed that business optimism among large manufacturers fell, with the gauge at +11 compared with +12 in the last survey. However, optimism among non-manufacturers rose, with the Tankan gauge at +34 compared with +30 in the fourth quarter and beating Reuters expectations of +33. The survey gauges business sentiment, which the Bank of Japan monitors when formulating monetary policy.
Persons: Japan's Organizations: China's National Bureau, Reuters, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan
The official purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose from 49.1 in February to 50.8 in March. The monthly manufacturing PMI has mostly been under 50 over the past 12 months: Other than this month, factory activities only recorded an expansion in September. Zhao said the survey also showed some problems for companies remained, including increasing competition in industries and a lack of market demand. And it said 10.4 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) would go to upgrading industries and modernizing manufacturing. According to the survey released Sunday, the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53 from 51.4 in February.
Persons: Zhao Qinghe, Zhao Organizations: BEIJING, , PMI, National Bureau, Statistics, National People’s Congress, Communist Locations: China
Polar ice melt driven by climate change is affecting Earth's rotation, according to new research. A human-driven change in the Earth's rotation has never been seen before, and may affect computing. DrPixel/Getty ImagesDon't worry — this change in Earth's rotation won't be catastrophic. Denis Tangney Jr./Getty ImagesAs a result, scientists predict that we would need the first-ever negative leap second by 2026. iStock / Getty Images PlusThere are three main mechanisms that control the Earth's spin:One is tidal friction, or the interaction between moving ocean water and the ocean floor, which slows Earth's rotation.
Persons: Duncan Agnew, what's, Denis Tangney Jr, Felicitas Arias, Judah Levine, Agnew, Andres Forza, you've Organizations: Service, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, International Bureau, Time Department, National Institute of Standards, Technology, Washington Post, Northern, Reuters, CNN Locations: Wellesley , Massachusetts, Needham, Northern Canada, Scandinavia, Argentina
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. From clothes to carsChina’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. “What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat. “But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ” Jens Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Huang Jingwen, ” Eskelund, Brad W, ” Markus W, Voigt, China’s BYD, Warren Buffett, Setser, Li Qiang, , , Joe Biden, Jennifer McKeown, Shawn Deng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, European Union, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Zero, of, People, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Council, Foreign Relations, World Trade Organization, Aream Group, Tesla, Getty, China Development Forum, Xinhua, Agency, ., EV, European Commission, WTO, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, Xinhua, China's Shandong, . Washington, Brussels
Exactly when that will happen is being influenced by humans, according to a new study, as melting polar ice alters the Earth’s rotation and changes time itself. The hours and minutes that dictate our days are determined by Earth’s rotation. But after a long trend of slowing, the Earth’s rotation is now speeding up. Melting polar ice is slowing the impact on Earth’s rotation and has delayed the date by three years, pushing it from 2026 to 2029, the report found. Changes in Earth’s rotation over the long term have been dominated by the friction of the tides on the ocean floor — which has slowed down its rotation.
Persons: Patrizia, , Duncan Agnew, Agnew, Ted Scambos, ” Agnew, , Olivier Morin, Scambos Organizations: CNN, Time Department, International Bureau, University of California San, University of Colorado Boulder Locations: France, University of California San Diego, Scoresby Fjord, Greenland, AFP
[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?
Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, , Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
New property sales reached a total of 1.06 trillion yuan ($147 billion) in the first two months of this year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The drop also marks a much faster pace of decline from the year-ago period, when new property sales dipped just 0.1%. Property investment fell 9% in the January-to-February period, which was faster than the 5.7% decrease registered during the same period last year. “The correction in property construction is still in its early stages,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note on Monday. The growth in factory output might be driven by strong exports demand.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , , Louise Loo, ” Loo, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Capital, Catering, , Oxford Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong
One Three Is Best: How China’s Family Planning Propaganda Has ChangedFor decades, China harshly restricted the number of children couples could have, arguing that everyone would be better off with fewer mouths to feed. The government’s one-child policy was woven into the fabric of everyday life, through slogans on street banners and in popular culture and public art. Between 1980 and 2015, the year the one-child policy officially ended, the Chinese government used extensive propaganda to warn that having more babies would hinder China’s modernization. Then Now One child is best, the government aids in elder care. The pivot has prompted local officials to remove visible remnants of the one-child policy.
Persons: , It’s, Critics, Marie Mathelin, Roger Viollet, Xilingjing Xiang Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, China Central Television, Getty Images Locations: Wuhan, China, People’s Republic of China, Bengbu, Anhui, Shanxi Province, Xilingjing
Now, a group of them has created an interesting model that suggests much of people's dissatisfaction with the economy comes down to interest rates. In fact, the impact of rising interest rates isn't directly accounted for anywhere in the official CPI report — even though they've also contributed to surging car payments and made credit card debt much more costly. That's why the economists developed their own inflation measure, and they think it provided a more accurate prediction of economic sentiment. Cramer said additional evidence for the impact of interest rates on consumer sentiment has come in recent months. Between November and January, the Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest two-month increase since 1991 — just as mortgage rates fell from their recent peak.
Persons: , Judd Cramer, Larry Summers, they've, hasn't, Harvard's Cramer, Cramer, pocketbooks, it's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University, International Monetary Fund, of Labor Statistics, University of, Harvard, BLS, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan
Ultimately, it’s very high leverage,” Tomasz Piskorski, a finance professor at Columbia Business School, tells me. Even a year after that exact thing happened — Silicon Valley Bank failed after depositor demand eclipsed the value of its assets — regulators haven’t addressed the core leverage issue. The most obvious answer is one the banking industry hates: Increase the amount of money a bank is required to hold in reserve. And their go-to argument against such regulations is that they force banks to curtail loans to customers, hurting folks in the real economy. The upshot: Despite the banking industry’s protest, banks can handle much higher capital requirements (at least, according to Piskorski et al).
Persons: CNN Business ’, it’s, ” Tomasz Piskorski, there’s, Piskorski, haven’t, Jerome Powell, ” Piskorski Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, New York Community Bank, Columbia Business School, Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: New York, Basel, stow,
An NBER working paper found that older siblings tend to make more money than their younger siblings. AdvertisementFor years, researchers have found that the eldest child tends to earn more money and perform better on cognitive tests than their younger siblings. AdvertisementOther reasons first-born siblings might have an advantageDayal told BI that studies across various countries and contexts have corroborated the idea that older siblings tend to have more education and economic success than their younger siblings. "Interestingly, these benefits start to emerge around age 12, when older siblings have more to teach and younger siblings are more ready to learn." AdvertisementGrant cited a study of 240,000 Norwegian teenagers that found younger siblings who had firstborn siblings die in infancy went on to have higher intelligence scores than laterborns with firstborn siblings.
Persons: , Meltem, Daysal, Younger, Dayal, Sandra Black, Columbia University who's, Adam Grant's, Grant Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Columbia University Locations: Denmark
China sets GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024
  + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
BEIJING — China set a growth target of "around 5%" for 2024, according to the "Government Work Report" released Tuesday. The targets for GDP and other economic indicators were published as part of the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting. The work report emphasized the need to "ensure both high-quality development and greater security," preventing risks and maintaining social stability, among other tasks. The work report said that "internal drivers of development are being built up," but added the country should be "well prepared for all risks and challenges." More than 2,800 delegates attended the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting in Beijing on Tuesday.
Persons: Li Qiang, Louise Loo Organizations: Economic, National People's, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party of China's, National People's Congress, IMF, Oxford Economics Locations: Davos, Switzerland, BEIJING, China, Beijing
Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.
Persons: Mary Daly, , ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, , , Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign
But the Caixin manufacturing PMI — which focuses on smaller, private companies — rose to 50.9 in February, up from 50.8 in January, according to S&P Global, which compiled the survey. The divergence in the output and new order sub-indexes is likely related to differences in geographic and sector coverage, as the Caixin PMI covers more southern regions, they said. “Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to improve in February,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in a statement that accompanied the Caixin PMI data. “Looking ahead, the focus should be on the effectiveness of the measures [announced previously by Beijing to boost growth],” Wang said. “Fiscal policy will lead the way,” HSBC analysts said Friday.
Persons: ” Goldman Sachs, , Wang Zhe, ” Wang, Xi Jinping, Lintao Zhang, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, P, National People’s Congress, PMI, Caixin Insight, , of People, Communist Party’s Politburo, NPC, Xinhua, HSBC Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Southern China, Guangdong, Zheijang, ” China
Go beyond financial literacy"Gone are the days that we can hide behind the illusion that more financial literacy is enough," says Rahkim Sabree, AFC, financial therapist and counselor. Currently, 25 states require financial literacy education for students; however, rarely, if ever, does financial literacy address larger systemic issues that exist. Black students owe an average of 188% more than what white students borrowed by the fourth year after graduation. One 2016 study found that if current trends continue, closing the wealth gap would take more than 200 years. AdvertisementYounger Black Americans have now become the fastest-growing demographic of new investors in the stock market.
Persons: , Martin Luther King, Jr, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, Ulrike I, Rahkim Sabree, We've, Kristin Afelumo, Lazetta Rainey Braxton, Braxton Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Black, National Bureau of Economic Research, Economic Policy Institute, AFC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Netflix, Lazetta, Associates Locations: America, Evanston , Illinois, Black
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
AdvertisementThe think-tank said it calculated child-raising costs in China using 2023 data from the National Bureau of Statistics. AdvertisementIn total, raising a child until they are 18 costs Chinese families an average of 538,312 yuan, or about $73,000, Yuwa said. Middle-income families in the US are projected to spend $233,610 raising a child until they are 18, per the USDA. AdvertisementNotably, the average cost of raising a child in China fell slightly compared to Yuwa's 2022 report on the same topic. The think-tank said data from 2019 showed that the average cost was $76,000, or about seven times the country's GDP per capita at the time.
Persons: , Liang Jianzhang, Huang Wenzheng, Yafu, Yuwa's, Yuwa Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Statistics, Department of, Ministry of Health and Welfare Locations: China, Japan, Beijing, South Korea, Shanghai
Double majors are less likely to experience "earnings shocks" like job losses, per a new paper. While it’s unclear why graduates with double majors offered workers this protection, the researchers speculated that it had something to do with their diversified skillsets. A University of Pennsylvania research paper from 2021 found that double majors tended to earn more money over the course of their careers — STEM and business double majors saw the biggest income boost. As of 2015, about 13% of Americans between ages 20 and 29 were double majors, per American Community Survey data. Roughly 10% of the individuals analyzed in the working paper were double majors.
Persons: , Andrew Hanks, , ” Bruce Weinberg Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stanford, Ohio State University, American, Survey, Ohio State, University of Pennsylvania, US Department of Education Locations: Ohio State
New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.
Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, , didn’t, Jerome Powell, , it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine
Overlaid on that picture is the company name, Grier Shoe Shop, and its address — which is part of an area known as Black Wall Street. With these ventures, she's part of a growing class of Black entrepreneurs tapping into Tulsa's history for inspiration and resources for support. He also won a grant from a Black Wall Street organization. The Black Wall Street Mural in the Greenwood district of Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Friday, June 19, 2020. Greenwood, known as Black Wall Street, was one of the most prosperous African-American enclaves in the U.S. before it was burned down by a white mob in 1921.
Persons: Venita Cooper, Parnia Mazhar, Grier, Silhouette, They've, Cooper, Dominick Ard'is, George Floyd, Ashli Sims, she's, Sims, North Martin Luther King, Edna Martinson, It's, Martinson, LaTanya White, he's, Adesanya, Grant Warner, James Lowry, Lowry, who's, Greenwood, Christopher Creese Organizations: Silhouette, NBC News, Tulsa, Build, Art, NBC, North Martin Luther King Jr, Ku Klux, House, Art Basel, Southwest, Black, Stanford, National Bureau of Economic Research, Creative, CNBC, Harvard Business School, Center for Black Entrepreneurship, Black Economic Alliance Foundation, Boston Consulting, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Greenwood, Tulsa , Oklahoma, TULSA, Tulsa, North, Miami, South, Austin, U.S, PalmPlug, Seattle, America
China's birthrate has plunged, with the number of newborns in 2023 falling by 500,000, to about 9 million. AdvertisementDecades of China's one-child policy have created a demographic nightmare for the world's second-largest economy, and millions of school teachers could soon be left without a job as birthrates tumble. If those classes don't scale back, China could see a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, according to a Tuesday report from the South China Morning Post. Last year marked the second consecutive year that China's population shrank, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Total primary school students, too, declined in 2022 for the first time in a decade.
Persons: China's birthrate, , it's Organizations: Service, South China Morning, country's National Bureau of Statistics, Education, China National Academy of Educational Sciences, Terry Group, Terry, UN Locations: China, Beijing, Hangzhou
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