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☆ Are Democrats Actually Winning Older Voters?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And yet the Times/Siena polls found the generic congressional ballot tied among seniors, at 45 percent support for each party. In a question asking how they voted in the 2020 presidential election, the polls still found Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump, 53 percent to 47 percent, among older voters. Democrats fared better among older voters in the Wisconsin mail survey than in any other major election study. The mail survey found the Democrat Mandela Barnes beating the Republican incumbent senator, Ron Johnson, by 52-40 among older registered voters. In the high-incentive mail survey, voters over 67 in 2022 (meaning over 65 in 2020) said they backed Mr. Biden by 55-38 over Mr. Trump.

Persons: Biden, Trump, Catalist —, aren’t, Wisconsinites, Mandela Barnes, Ron Johnson, —, Barnes, Johnson, VoteCast Organizations: Times, Democratic, Republicans, Republican, Mr Locations: Siena, Wisconsin

☆ Mailbag: Does Trump Represent Half the Country?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

I suppose it must be good news for the Nats at some level, but the Mets weren’t really their problem. Books by candidatesI previously mentioned that I don’t read books by aspiring presidential candidates. Of course, someone is unlikely to read a book by a candidate unless they are somewhat interested in that person. — Angie BoyterWhen I wrote that I don’t read a presidential candidate’s book, I was mainly thinking about the genre of political books written by someone just about to run for president. They largely go unread, but they offer an excuse for TV producers to book a presidential hopeful on their shows.

Persons: Haley, Nikki Haley — David Newberger, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis isn’t, Asa, Asa Hutchinson’s, — Merideth Tomlinson, I’m, Barack Obama, ” …, Angie Boyter, Obama’s, ”, ” —, Obama, Vance’s Organizations: Mets, Washington Nationals Locations: Arkansas

☆ Trump and the Fun Factor
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Astead W. Herndon | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political fallout with my colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. After poring over traditional markers about fund-raising and poll numbers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been thinking about over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) fun? But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate wasn’t calling Trump fun as a self-evident fact, but rather identifying a set of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, are distinct from Trump’s base and follow politics only casually, if at all. Perhaps you have a friend who doesn’t care about politics, but can’t believe Trump said THAT.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn, Nate, I’m, Nate wasn’t, Trump, Marco ” Rubio, “ Lyin, Ted ” Cruz Organizations: New York City, Democracy Fund Locations: New York, Miami

☆ Fox, Trump and Millennial Movement
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

They almost never do, and the handful of polls since the Trump indictment appear to be no exception. For now, the way to tell whether it could eventually make a difference may not be to watch the polls, but to watch Fox News instead. In some cases, they can even force Mr. Trump’s rivals to come to his aid! It might become acceptable to lightly critique Mr. Trump’s conduct. Perhaps in time, his opponents would feel comfortable expressing outrage about Mr. Trump’s conduct — even if it’s outrage that he allowed himself to fall prey to the odious Deep State.

Persons: Trump, Donald J, Trump’s Organizations: Fox Locations: State

☆ Do Christie and Pence Make It 2016 Again? Not Yet.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The party couldn’t coalesce behind one candidate, allowing Mr. Trump to win the Republican primary with well under half of the vote. With Mike Pence and Chris Christie bringing the field up to 10 candidates this week, it’s easy to wonder whether the same conditions might be falling into place again. Now, the likes of Mr. Pence and Mr. Christie — as well as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley — are in the fray and threatening to leave the Trump opposition hopelessly divided, as it was seven years ago. In the end, Mr. Pence or Mr. Christie might well break out and leave the opposition to Mr. Trump as fractured as it was in 2016. So far this cycle, polls have consistently shown Mr. DeSantis with the support of a majority of Republican voters who don’t support Mr. Trump.

Persons: It’s, Donald J, Trump, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Pence, Christie —, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley —, Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich Organizations: Mr, Republican, Trump

☆ Strict polling requirements from the RNC wiped out most of the GOP primary field before they could even declare
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Walt Hickey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The RNC set a number of benchmarks a campaign needs to hit to make the August 23 debate. Candidates must poll at 1% or higher in three polls with over 800 likely Republican voters. Not many polls have over 800 likely Republican voters, so that'll be harder to hit than some expect. That's a high bar for some campaigns in the increasingly busy bottom of the race, but that's not even the number that's going to screw them. Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and Doug Burgum will all in the GOP primary by the end of the week.

Persons: —, That's, that's, Gallup, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum, Wade Vandervort, Andrew Caballero, Getty, Scott Olson, Stephen Yang, Nate Cohn, FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich, Geoffrey Skelley, Nikki Haley, South, Tim Scott, Sen, Jim DeMint, Ehrhardt, Trump, DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy — Organizations: RNC, Republican, Service, Republican National Committee, Republicans, Morning, New York Times, GOP, South Carolina, AP, North Dakota Gov Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire , Nevada, South Carolina, FiveThirtyEight, Columbia

☆ Millennials Are Not an Exception. They’ve Moved to the Right.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And last fall, the young voters of ’08 — by then 32 to 43 — preferred Democratic congressional candidates by just 10 points in Times/Siena polling. The Financial Times, for instance, wrote that “millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics” by not moving to the right as they age. Similarly, the Democratic data firm Catalist found that Democrats essentially haven’t lost ground among millennials and Gen Z over the last decade. The millennials of 2008 are not the same as those of 2016, for instance: Six additional years of even more heavily Democratic millennials became eligible to vote after the 2008 election, canceling out the slight Republican shift among older millennials. The shift to the right appears largest among the oldest “young” voters — the older millennials who came of age in a very different political era from today.

Persons: —, Obama, It’s, Catalist, Democratic millennials Organizations: Democratic, Times, Roper, Financial Times Locations: Siena, Iraq

☆ An Outlier Poll on Trump vs. Biden That Still Informs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The poll actually did report a result among registered voters and still found Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis ahead by six. Mr. Trump still led by three points among registered voters. And while this was not included in the most recent poll, Mr. Trump led among voters making less than $50,000 per year, historically a Democratic voting group. All of this means that the ABC/Post poll isn’t quite like the usual outlier. It should be noted that the ABC/Post poll is nearly the last of the traditional, live-interview, random-digit-dialing telephone surveys that dominated public polling for much of the last half-century.

☆ Opinion | Are Anti-Trump Republicans Doomed to Repeat 2016?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

First, there’s the limits of ideological box-checking in a campaign against Trump. Part of DeSantis’s advantage now, compared with Cruz’s situation in 2016, is that he has seemed more congenial to the party’s bigger-money donors. Remember how nothing remotely like that happened among Republicans in 2016? This reflects another tendency that helped elect him the first time, the weird fatalism of professional Republicans. In 2016 many of them passed from “he can’t win” to “he can’t be stopped” with barely a way station in between.

☆ Why Ron DeSantis Is Struggling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Mr. DeSantis will probably never be an entertainer like Mr. Trump, an orator like Ronald Reagan, or someone to get a beer with like George W. Bush. It let him channel the passions of the Republican base and get on Fox News without offending bourgeoise conservative sensibilities on race, immigration and gender. In the last presidential primary, in 2016, Mr. Trump held the center of the Republican electorate and left his opposition split on either side. After all, there’s plenty of room to line up to the right of “woke” without alienating anyone on the right. Trying to be to the right of Mr. Trump, on the other hand, involves greater risk regarding both the general electorate and his relatively moderate supporters.

☆ The Trump Inevitability Question
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( The Run-Up | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Outside a Manhattan courtroom, on the day of former President Donald Trump’s arraignment, Astead spoke to two camps of spectators. Supporters cast Mr. Trump as the victim of prosecutorial overreach, while opposing voices hoped this was just the beginning of his legal troubles. With an ever-shifting political landscape as America heads toward the 2024 election, what do Mr. Trump’s mounting legal woes mean for his electoral viability? Is success for the former president, despite it all, an inevitability? Astead speaks with Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, about what the polls do — and do not — tell us.

☆ An Early, Early Look at Biden’s 2024 Prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The large number of voters who dislike Mr. Trump and once liked Mr. Biden create upside. In the most recent surveys, Mr. Biden is badly underperforming among these groups. In his announcement video on Tuesday, Mr. Biden devoted almost all of his attention to rights, freedom, democracy and abortion. In 2020, Mr. Biden won the national vote by 4.4 percentage points, but barely squeaked out wins by less than one percentage point in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Given the idiosyncratic and localized nature of last year’s midterm results, it would be a mistake to be confident that the Republican Electoral College advantage is coming to an end.

Two of his revenge picks to knock off House Republicans who voted to impeach him lost critical general election races in Michigan and Washington. To Mr. Trump, none of that had any bearing on his desire to return to power. “A perfect call.” Absconding with classified documents from the White House? “I think the question is who is the current leader of the Republican Party. In light of what unfolded at Mar-a-Lago, that felt more like the wishful thinking of a born optimist than the judgment of a seasoned student of Mr. Trump.

We’re tracking the remaining uncalled House races — and showing when they are called — as states continue to count the outstanding votes from the midterm elections. The tallies below are based on the reported vote so far, and the margin in many races will continue to change as more ballots are counted in the coming days.

Tracking the most competitive statesEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive races for Senate control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. Alaska is expected to be won by one of the two Republicans leading the vote count in that state.

Tracking the most competitive districtsEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive districts for House control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. There is one race in a district rated competitive prior to the election that has not yet been called.

Live forecast: Estimating the outcomeThis is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. See the full forecast ›

Officials did not make predictions for the pace of reporting. (In 2020, it took three days for 90 percent of the vote to be reported.) The state conducts a predominantly mail-ballot election, and ballots postmarked by Election Day have four days to arrive.

How votes compare with 2020The map below shows how votes cast in this race compare with votes cast in the 2020 presidential election in the same area. Only counties that have reported almost all of their votes are shown.

Officials may not begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, and officials have said that vote counting may take until the morning after the election or later that day. Early returns could give a misleading impression of a large Republican advantage before all mail ballots are counted. Learn more about the timing of results ›

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