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☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan excites, Dow unlucky, Intel jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Specifically, the central bank said it would offer to buy 10-year JGBs at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5% - tolerating the wider band for bond market borrowing rates. With July core inflation in Tokyo falling back to a 10-month low, the need for tightening may be ebbing anyway. Friday's data is expected to show another drop in the Fed's favoured core PCE inflation gauge in June. For markets more broadly, Friday seems a little scattergun so far after a heavy week of macro policy and corporate news. U.S. Treasury yields fell back from two-week highs hit after the punchy U.S. economy readouts and central bank moves, with the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepening as recession fears abate.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones bluechips, T Rowe Price, Nick Macfie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dow, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, ECB, Intel, U.S, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Proctor, Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Church, Dwight, Charter Communications, Dallas Fed, University of Michigan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall St, Tokyo, Wall, Asia, Centene, Franklin

LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - Even as fears of a 2023 U.S. recession recede and stock market bears concede defeat, there's scant sign of party mode. After wild swings of output, prices, employment, liquidity and interest rates, firm convictions about the precise onset of "technical" recessions - or even previously reliable gauges of bull and bear markets - have all become a bit suspect. Whether on a domestic or global scale, aggregate views of the economy, or stock market, right now are likely misleading. A bull to bear market and back again in little over 18 months - or so it seems. SP 500 2023 YTD THROUGH JULY 21BLUNTEDChief among the puzzles is the variable impact of sharply higher interest rates on both households and firms.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, Mike Dolan Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, Tuesday, eventual, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Generale, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, midyear

☆ Morning Bid: ECB to follow Fed hike, Meta surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained equivocal about whether there was one more policy rate rise left this year and said Fed staff were no longer forecasting a recession - but futures markets continue to see a less than 50% chance of another move. Global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their highest since April last year on Thursday, with European stocks up more than 1% ahead of the ECB decision. The euro pushed higher against a softer dollar ahead of the announcement and press conference from ECB chief Christine Lagarde. The yen also firmed as the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its easy policy unchanged on Friday. The euro zone's biggest bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), by contrast, beat Q2 estimates and the stock jumped 4%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Meta, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Christine Lagarde, Willis Towers Watson, Giorgia Meloni, Joe Biden, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Treasury, Boeing, Dow, Wall, ECB, Bank of, Shell, Barclays, BNP, Central Bank, Intel, Ford, Boston Scientific, Myers Squibb, Honeywell, Xcel, Eastman Chemical, Pentair, Mastercard, P Global, Hershey, Digital Realty, Northrop Grumman, Weyerhaeuser, Cincinatti, Verisign, Comcast, Southwest Airlines, HCA, . Federal Reserve Board, Washington Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Exxon, Chevron, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Asia, Hong Kong, China, Abbvie, Bristol, Edison, Kansas, Basel III, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: Tech splits, banks merge and Fed decides
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Unlucky for some perhaps, but a 13th today would make it the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987. Meta Platforms (META.O) is up next after Wednesday's closing bell and its share rose 2%. Wells Fargo (WFC.N), meantime, climbed 2.8% after the bank's board authorized a new $30 billion share buyback program. The Fed decision comes in the wake of another set of forecast-beating U.S. consumer confidence readings for July. Elsewhere, the European earnings season was in full swing too, with banks dominating the diary and the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Molina, Rollins, Edwards, John Stonestreet Organizations: Microsoft, Dow, Netflix, Google, Federal Trade Commission, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Japan, HK, . Federal, eBay, Boeing, General Dynamics, Seagate, Union Pacific, CME, Hilton Worldwide, Lam Research, Water Works, United Rentals, Otis, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Nasdaq, California, Lam, Everest

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech litmus test as Fed gather
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The wider blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) snapped a six-day losing streak to pop 3% and buying from state banks propped the yuan. Both oil and Treasury yields gave back some of those gains again today, however, with year-on-year crude price declines still tracking more than 21%. There was little ostensible reaction to the formal rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 (.NDX) index that pared weightings of several of the big caps to reduce "over-concentration". The approach of Wednesday's Fed decision may limit market moves until then. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, sagged, Dow Jones bluechips, Alphabet's, Clark, Chubb, Paccar, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, Ed Osmond Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ebbing, Nasdaq, Google, Texas, NextEra Energy, Visa, GE, GM, Dow, Verizon, Universal Health, Daniels, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, Market, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Hong, Europe, China, Danaher, Corning, Kimberly, Biogen, Dover, Nucor, Midland

☆ Morning Bid: Euro biz ebbs, China property and rate peaks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Arguments for calling a halt to the credit tightening were strengthened on Monday as early July business surveys for the euro area came in well below forecasts, showing a deepening contraction in overall activity this month. The euro dropped more than half a percent against the dollar as euro government debt yields fell back, with an indecisive weekend election result in Spain adding pressure. With the ongoing slide in manufacturing still the biggest drag and due in large part to China's spluttering post-Covid recovery, further turbulence in China's property markets will only increase the anxiety. For Wall St, the looming Fed decision dominates this week - with a check on U.S. July business surveys topping the data on Monday's calendar in another huge corporate earnings week. U.S. Treasury yields fell back, but the dollar (.DXY) climbed against the euro, yuan and sterling - also hit by disappointing UK business readings for July.

Persons: Mike Dolan, China's, readouts, Dow Jones, Brown Organizations: Futures, Bank of, Dalian, Japan's Nikkei, Tech, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Chicago Fed, Whirlpool, Packaging Corp of America, Cadence, Trade Organization, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Bank of Japan, Spain, United States, Alexandria, Geneva

But management of central bank balance sheets could help - even if central bankers are keen to publicly disassociate the process from monetary policy goals per se. But the U.S. central bank can be more comfortable nearing peak rates with inflation much closer to target than Europe's central banks - where future trade-offs may be more tempting. G3 central bank balance sheetsFed share of Treasury marketReuters GraphicsBACKGROUND NOISE? Ramsden laced his comments with caution about not confusing the run-down of the BoE's "asset purchase facility" with its central policy task. And they reckoned an increase in the volume of QT should theoretically lead to higher term premia in euro bond markets.

Persons: Dave Ramsden, BoE, Ramsden, there's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar flexes into Fed week, calm returns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Another unexpectedly tight weekly reading from the U.S. labour market sowed some lingering doubts that we're on the cusp of 'peak Fed' just yet. The tech wobble saw the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recoil 2% in its biggest drop since March. A quieter earnings schedule is topped by American Express - but nearly all the other banks have been impressive over the past week. Pessimists think the Fed is not done tightening yet and any further rate hikes after next week will just hasten a downturn in 2024. That has sobered up the Treasury market a touch after a couple of weeks of disinflation relief.

Persons: Mike Dolan, jockeying, we're, Dow Jones industrials, Johnson, Pessimists, Huntington Bancshares, Janet Yellen, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Big Tech, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, American Express, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Comerica, Regions, Roper Technologies, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Huntington, Schlumberger, Canada, Hanoi

☆ Morning Bid: Tesla, Netflix underwhelm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A Tesla logo is seen outside a showroom of the carmaker in Beijing, China May 31, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File PhotoA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAn overdue cold shower? July 20 (Reuters) - The first of the supercharged Big Tech firms to report in this earnings season - Tesla and Netflix - seemed to underwhelm markets overnight, cutting across the enthusiastic reception for big banks and knocking back bulled-up Wall St from 2023 highs. Although electric car giant Tesla (TSLA.O) comfortably beat second quarter profit forecasts, markets seized on plans for continued price discounting and squeezed margins as a reason to drag its shares down almost 4% in overnight trading. In the fixed income world, Treasury yields crept back higher ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, McLennan, Philip Morris, WR, DR Horton, Janet Yellen, John Organizations: REUTERS, Big Tech, Netflix, Overseas, Citizens, US Bancorp, Energy, Healthcare, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson, Blackstone, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Marsh, WR Berkley, CSX, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Housing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Russia, Britain, Newmont, Freeport, McMoRan, DR, Philadelphia, Turkey, South Africa, Vietnam

Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.

Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech weighs in, UK relieved
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Netflix logo is shown on one of their Hollywood buildings in Los Angeles, California, U.S., July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File PhotoJuly 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanJuly is heating up and cooling down at the same time - and it's not just the extraordinary weather. Red-hot, Big Tech mega caps that have driven Wall St stocks to their highest in more than year start to clock second-quarter updates later on Wednesday, while world markets were buoyed again as Britain finally starts to join the disinflation club. Tesla and Netflix - both part of New York's 10-stock FANG+TM index (.NYFANG) of leading tech and digital giants that has almost doubled so far this year - will report after the bell on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Blake, Mike Dolan, it's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Kinder Morgan, Baker Hughes, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, Big Tech, Netflix, IBM, United Airlines, Halliburton, T Bank, Northern Trust, Zions Bancorp, US Bancorp, Citizens Financial, Nasdaq, Discover Financial, Steel Dynamics, U.S, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, Britain, New, United

☆ Morning Bid: Retail, housing and banks test jaunty July
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe benign July investment environment gets tested on Tuesday by updates on U.S. retail sales and housing while the corporate earnings season kicks back into gear with another sweep of bank reports. Consensus forecasts are for a modest rise in retail sales and industrial output last month, while the NAHB homebuilder index is expected to have ticked higher in July to underline the recent housing market recovery more broadly. U.S. stock futures were flat going into the open and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to their lowest level of the month so far. Crude oil prices tried to find their footing after Monday's sharp drop and continue to sustain year-on-year losses of more than 25%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Wall, HSI, Evergrande, Goldman Sachs, Janet Yellen, Morgan Stanley, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Michael Barr, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Federal, Bank of America, Bank of New, Mellon, Novartis, Sandoz, Bank of New York Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, Synchrony, JB, Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Hong Kong, Treasuries, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: China falls short and oil ebbs but banks impress
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Sub-forecast and sharply slowing retail sales growth for June likewise offset a more upbeat industrial output readout for the months. Even though falling import and export prices in June reinforced the disinflation picture, two-year Treasury yields recouped some of the week's steep declines. LUXURY FIRMSU.S. stock futures were little changed ahead of Monday's open, but two-year Treasury yields edged back lower to 4.72%. Elsewhere, shares of Richemont (CFR.S) dropped nearly 7% after the world's second-biggest luxury firm reported a miss in its sales and amid the China growth dampener. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she was working with India on energy transition and "eager" to work with China on debt workouts.

Persons: Mike Dolan China's, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Hong, Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, York Federal, governor's, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Asia, Shanghai, Wall, Richemont, India, Russia, China . U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Banks lob earnings into giddy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But there's likely to be a scattering of the herd in terms of performance during that three months. For universal banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo that serve retail consumers and firms, earnings per share are expected to have jumped more than 40% over the previous year. Overall, the U.S. earnings season is expected to show S&P500 profits down 6.4% from the same period a year earlier - with revenue down a more modest 0.8%, according to Refinitiv research. Stock markets around the world and S&P500 futures held most of their outsize weekly gains, however, and were mostly flat into the open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Wells, behemoths Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, that's, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank, Export, Stock, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, University of Michigan, European Union, Brussels Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, China, Brussels

LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - An accelerating dollar slide could be a U.S. gift to its allies by helping them catch up with its impressive disinflation. A dollar slide of this size and speed has typically elicited yelps of pain from U.S. trading partners. Euro zone headline inflation - which peaked about one percentage point above and three months later than the U.S. equivalent last year - was still 2.5 points above it last month. The ECB will likely stay shy of peak Fed rates, but an expected move to 4.0% policy rates by year-end will involve two quarter point hikes after the Fed has stopped. A time-limited dollar drop now may be more benign than a simple reversion to a new 'currency war'.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Reserve, Monetary, Sterling, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, Transatlantic, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Britain, Swiss

☆ Morning Bid: Markets bet July 2023 is 'peak Fed'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanSurprise news of a 2%-plus print on U.S. headline inflation rate for June has world markets betting the peak of the Federal Reserve's interest rate campaign will now be this month. Either way, the latest inflation cheer means U.S. rate futures have wiped out bets of another Fed rate hike after a final quarter-point move to 5.25-5.50% at July 26's meeting. Although they see peak rates held there to year-end, futures now price as much as a full percentage point of cuts by this time in 2024. The VIX "fear index" (.VIX) fell back below 14 to its lowest of the month so far. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, That's, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Christine Lagarde, Toby Chopra Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Bank of, Swiss, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Nordic, European Central Bank, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, Jackson, Fastenal, Helsinki, Brussels, Japan

Former BoE policymaker Kate Barker told the Financial Times this weekend that targetted and temporary tax rises on top earners may be the most effective and fairest way to go. "We're asking monetary policy to do all the work," she said. But the political sensitivity of income tax likely dictates the way forward, however cogent the economics. Yet the more general point of fiscal policy helping with the final throes of the inflation battle continues to be made. "Fiscal Policy should remain aligned with monetary policy in the fight against inflation," the Fund concluded.

Persons: BoE policymaker Kate Barker, President Biden, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank for International, U.S, Bank of, Financial Times, Fed, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Britain's, National Statistics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Republicans, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Britain, London

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

☆ Morning Bid: Bruised bonds relying on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While that data took the edge off the red-hot private-sector jobs readout the previous day, it left a bruised bond market still wary of further Federal Reserve interest rate rises and praying disinflation may stay its hand after one more hike later this month. Although Treasury bond volatility (.MOVE) backed off six-week highs on Friday, its weekly rise was the biggest since the wild swings around the banking stress in March. Stock futures were in the red again ahead of Monday's open despite gains in Chinese and European bourses. British markets - where the UK government bond market selloff last week had been worse than in Treasuries - remained edgy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, disinflation, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wednesday's, Treasury, NATO, HSBC, Sunday . Bank of England, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, Bank of England, . Treasury, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Vilnius, British, Treasuries, South Korea, Ukraine

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Unsure which way the cookie crumbles from here - investors are being tempted to drop the bond. The broadest measures of government and corporate bonds have just stuck in mud. Two-year government bond yields are soaring. With June U.S. jobs growth going up yet another gear, U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. For all but longer-term pension and insurance funds or banks, bonds may be neither fish nor fowl for a while to come.

Persons: hasn't, Stocks, midyear underperformance, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Global, Bloomberg U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan, Europe, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson

☆ Morning Bid: Data-hit bond markets end summer lull
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On top of that, there were signs that activity at dominant U.S. service sector firms picked up steam again last month too. Friday's release of the Labor Department's monthly national payrolls report will seal the picture. U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. The VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied Wall St volatility - which had been peculiarly subdued right through last month - jumped to its highest since June 1. Crucially, 2-year Treasury yields edged back below 5%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, payrolls, HSI, Janet Yellen's, Elon, Lorrie Logan, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Emelia Sithole Organizations: readouts, Federal, Labor, Dallas Fed, Fed, Treasury, Nikkei, Twitter, Meta, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Bank of England, NATO, Vilnius Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, China, Canada, New York, Vilnius Reuters

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor on China, three jobs gauges
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have taken a hit from a deepening selloff in China as they await critical health checks on U.S. employment over the next two days. Although Fed futures pricing for the year ahead changed little overnight, two-year U.S. Treasury yields edged up closer to 5%. ADP's June take on private sector payrolls, the latest weekly jobless claims numbers and details of May job openings all hit the slate later. Consensus forecasts have ADP reporting another 228,000 jobs last month, jobless claims ticking higher last week and vacancies falling in May. Events to watch for later on Thursday:* U.S. June ADP private sector jobs report, weekly jobless claims and May JOLTS job openings data.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, restating, John Williams, Elon Musk, Lorrie Logan, Elaine Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Goldman, Federal, New York Fed, Labor Department's, Dallas Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, British, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Minutes meted, China crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAs U.S. markets return from Independence Day, the Federal Reserve's slightly awkward deliberations are laid bare again just as China's markets shrink from more unnerving economic signs. The Fed minutes out later will sketch out how close that is to the thinking in Washington. Going into the release, futures markets are 80% priced for another quarter-point policy rate rise to 5.5-5.75% this month and have 33 basis points of hikes pencilled in by November. The dollar (.DXY) was steady to firmer, with China's offshore yuan reversing all of Tuesday's gains. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Janet Yellen, HSI, Goldman Sachs, John Williams, Christina Fincher Organizations: Independence, U.S, Treasury, Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Beijing, Washington, Monday's, Saudi Arabia, Russia

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Dismissal of this year's much-scorned equity market rally as the frothy preserve of a handful of AI-fuelled stocks may be both misleading and also one of its strengths. Or, put another way, if you remove the top 10 stocks, the other 490 would only have gained 4%. And an eye-popping 75% surge in the high-octane 10-stock FANG+TM index (.NYFANG) - mega cap U.S. digital and tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - underlines that. In short, they're hard to avoid unless you dodge either U.S.-listed companies or equity markets altogether. "While stock market investments may be risky in the short run, when viewed against inflation they have offered far more certainty in the long run," he told clients.

Persons: Russell, Andrew Lapthorne, Japan's, Germany's DAX, Italy's, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, H1 Stock, Japan's Nikkei, MIB, McKinsey, Bank, Big Tech, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S, United States

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